Advisian's Jaime Silk look at how Electric Vehicles are re-engineering New Zealand’s future physical and digital landscape

1. www.advisian.com
Jamie Silk
Picture Courtesy of Leith Robertson
Electric Vehicle Outlook –
New Zealand
Re-engineering New Zealand’s future
physical and digital landscape

2. Global drive
Now world-leading
research and
development
contactless charge:
New Zealand
2040 ICE sales
ban: France
and the United
Kingdom
2025 ICE sales
ban: Holland
and Norway
2030 ICE sales
ban: Germany,
Ireland and India
2025 CBD
diesel ban: Paris,
Madrid and
Mexico City
2019 Minimum %
EV sales targets
by manufacturers:
China
CBD – Central Business District
ICE – Internal Combustion Engine

3. EVs and New Zealand - an exceptional match
EVs
work
for NZ
40%
reduced CO2
emissions
over petrol
(lifecycle)
80%+
renewable
electricity
Charging
infrastructure
going in fast
Short
commute
and road
user charges

4. EVs and New Zealand - an exceptional match
Sustainable
aspirations
EVs = 80% less
CO2 per trip
Performance
Clean and quiet
acceleration
per litre
equivalent cost
30cents
<$1/day
40km commute and
low maintenance

5. So what is the EV uptake like?
2x
Annual rate of
EV growth in
NZ
4,500
EVs in NZ
today
0.5m
2028On target for the
government’s goal
of 64,000 EVs
by 2021
Straight line
run rate for
2024/5?
MOT’s bullish
projection for 0.5m
(18% of fleet)

6. EV facts – a reality check
0
50
100
150
200
250
Renault
Zoe 40
BMWi3 VW Golf Hyundai
Ioniq
Nissan
Leaf
Real-world KMs, average
NZ daily journey and 95%
percentile journey KMs
Capital costs/km of battery capacity
fell 23% in the last year (top 3 EVs)
0
50
100
150
200
1st 2nd 3rd
2016
2017
Price per KM real-world battery
capacity (GBP post tax)
Real-world mileage is growing
fast to meet user needs
“EVs don’t work for long distances”

7. Home and fast charging will not be a constraint
10km
distance from 1hr charge
10A home socket (4 hrs for an
average daily recharge)
25min
fast charge time/100km
50kW charger, 1st 120kW
installs planned
Distance from 1 hr charge
16A home socket
Distance from 1 hr
charge 40A oven socket
18km
45km

8. Today’s reality – the car fleet can only transition so fast
• Rational people will not discard working cars
• A new car is a big cost, spent rarely
• A real car has a living sound and feel
150k
New cars bought
each year
14yrs
Average car life

9. But can we use
today’s reality to
forecast the transport
and energy future?

10. We are on the cusp of
the fastest, deepest, most
consequential disruption
of transportation in
history.
Rethinking Transportation May 2017, Arbib & Seba

11. It is not about car replacement but redefining
transportation (and more)
The Internet Of
Transport (C-AVs)
Big Data and
Communications
Consumer
Energy
Assets
The Sharing
Economy
The real disruption is
the convergence of
transport options,
digital technology
and power

12. By 2030 .. 95% of US passenger
miles will be served by on
demand autonomous electric
vehicles owned by fleets …
“transport-as-a-service (Taas).”
2028 MOT’s bullish projection for 0.5m (18% of fleet)

13. Pace of Electric Autonomous Vehicle (E-AV) Transition
Massive per mile cost falls
Competition drives services near
cost. Utilisation rates 10 times
higher, car life 0.5m miles+
Consumer transition to TaaS
2-4xs cheaper than operating an
existing car, 4-10xs cheaper than
buying, growing sharing economy.
1
2
3
4
Autonomous vehicle approval
Unleash $10 of bns in investment
in pre-TaaS solutions (Uber, Lyft,
Google, Apple, Ford, Nissan)
Accelerating EV and
connected vehicle take up
Driven by EV, safety and
convenience benefits

14. Battery supply chain
• Lithium/rare earths - politics (diversified supply)
• Environmental risks/costs
• Refining and production (China EV charge)
Energy supply and fiscal
• Hydrocarbon demand
• Fuel taxes drop materially
• 100% EVs, 20% New Zealand generation
• Uncontrolled peak impact (40% new home use)
• EVs will drive the retail internet of energy
Implications – Electric Vehicles

15. Social
• Accelerate vehicle transition
• Drive Transport-as-a-Service (TaaS) models
• Needs the public to trust their safety.
Institutional and business
• Legal, insurance and regulatory
• Redefine the urban landscape
• Facilitate road congestion charging
• Feed an array of information services.
Implications – Autonomous
Vehicles (AVs)

16. Energy
• Energy storage (vehicle-to-grid, second-life
batteries)
• Reducing peak infrastructure needs
• Providing resiliency (micro-grids)
• Extended power outages risk crippling transport.
Cybersecurity and communications resilience
• Connected autonomous vehicles
• Increased IT dependency between the transport
and power sectors.
Implications – infrastructure
resilience is critical

17. The compounding power of convergence….
Convergence across
domains with
digitisation and the
Internet of Things
Convergence kills
planning by
historical trend
and domain
Converging of social
and technology
trends create
dramatic impact
Convergence
drives planning
for divergent
scenarios