Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 2012

기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구
Food Safety Challenges
due to Climate Change
기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단
www.climate-food.net
Ki-Hwan Park, Professor
Dept. of Food Sci. & Tech.
Chung-Ang University
ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)
http://www.ilsi.org/SEA_Region/Pages/ViewEventDetails.aspx?WebId=4D540914-EEB6-40E4-89EB-0B73BA3D76C1&ListId=478BE3CB-581B-4BA2-
A280-8E00CCB26F9C&ItemID=66

목목목목 차차차차
Global Climate Change
CC & Food Safety
Overview of Research Group
Food Safety Control Strategy

Grinnell Glacier National Park, MT

Enhanced greenhouse effect
Climate
change
cooler
warmer storms
winds
floods
droughts
3

Rising temperature
Increases in pathogen growth
and infection
More precipitation
more and longer periods with
favorable pathogen
environments
Management practicesRising CO2 level
In general…
Management practices
⇒⇒⇒⇒
Rapid bacterial growth
⇒⇒⇒⇒ rapid host resistance
breakdown
Frequent strong rainfall
⇒⇒⇒⇒ less effective residues of
pesticide
Rising CO2 level
⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the
Higher CO2 levels
⇒⇒⇒⇒ lower plant decomposition
⇒⇒⇒⇒ more plant residues for
overwinter
⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the
beginning of grwoing season
4

According to 4th IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report,
climate change is altering disaster risk patterns in three main ways :
Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as more
frequent extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, more intense
tropical cyclones and expanded area affected by drought and floods;
Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;
Prediction of Global Climate Change
Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;
Increase in vulnerability of particular social groups and economic
sectors due to sea level rise, ecosystem stress and glacier melting.
Hurricane Katrina,
U.S.A
Tsunami,
Asia
Earthquake
China
Flood,
U.K
Hot Summer,
France
Drought,
Africa
Ice Melting,
Peru
El Nino
5

Global warming will accelerate with predictions of the average increase in
global temperature ranging from 1.8 to 4℃℃℃℃(IPCC, 2007) .
By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to suffer
increased water stress in sub-Saharan Africa and by 2080 2 to 7 million
more people per year, will be affected by coastal flooding (Yohe et al., 2007).
Prediction of Global Climate Change
Of the 262 million people affected annually by climate disasters between
2000 and 2004, more than 98 percent lived in developing countries
(UNISDR/CRED, 2007).
6

Temperature: In 2020, +1.5℃℃℃℃ In 2050, +3.0℃℃℃℃ In 2080, +5.0℃℃℃℃
Precipitation: In 2020, +5 % In 2050, +7 % In 2080, +15 %
Sea level: Increase 50 cm by 2100
Seasons: Summer increase by 45 days and winter decrease by 63 days in 2080
Climate Change in Korea
National Institute of Meteorological Research, 2007
Han River
in 1950
Han River in
present
9

14.514.514.514.5
14.014.014.014.0
13.513.513.513.5
13.013.013.013.0
12.512.512.512.5
12.012.012.012.0
11.511.511.511.5
1500150015001500
1400140014001400
1300130013001300
1200120012001200
1100110011001100
1000100010001000
900900900900
Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)
Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)
PrecipitationTemperature Extremes
Rising
temperatures
Changing
precipitation
Extreme events
tropical storms etc.
℃℃℃℃+ 1.8℃℃℃℃ + 217㎜㎜㎜㎜
⇒⇒⇒⇒
⇒⇒⇒⇒
80 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 110 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 172 days
150 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 16 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 31 days
11.011.011.011.0
1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s
800800800800
1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s
10

present ℃℃℃℃4℃℃℃℃ increase℃℃℃℃2℃℃℃℃ increase
Increasing temperature makes Korea
subtropical
℃℃℃℃
℃℃℃℃
Increasing temperature 2℃℃℃℃ makes southern part of Korea subtropical area
Increasing temperature 4 ℃℃℃℃ makes almost all peninsula subtropical area
Summer period is longer than before
wintersummer
wintersummer
11

Climate Change & Food Safety

• Globalisation & changing food trade patterns
•• ClimateClimate changechange
• Technology development (for example
Major drivers of food safety risks
• Technology development (for example
nanotechnology)
• Economy
13

• Temperatures will increase, winters will be wetter, summers
drier and there will be an increase in intense rain events
• Changes are likely to affect the prevalence of disease and the
usage of chemicals
Potential impacts on risks of chemicals
and pathogens from agriculture
• Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology
• Climatic changes likely to affect fate and transport of
pathogens and chemicals
• Risks could be very different from today
14

• Flooding will increase exposure and risk to endemic livestock pathogens
(anthrax, liver fluke, fecal/oral pathogens)
• Ectoparasitic diseases will increase
• Emergence, and increase in prevalence, of some arthropod vector-borne
diseases in livestock is likely
Impacts of CC on Animal Disease
• Prevalence of diseases caused by anaerobic spore-forming bacteria (e.g.
botulism and anthrax) may increase due to wetter conditions
• The prevalence of liver flukes may increase because of warmer, wetter
conditions
• The prevalence of endemic diseases (e.g. Escherichia coli O157,
Toxoplasma, Giardia, salmonellas, campylobacters) transmitted by fecal-oral
routes may increase due to flooding and wetter conditions, although
environmental survival is typically less
15

Climate change & Hazards
Glacier
Melting
Changes in the
Atmosphere: Composition,
Circulation
N2, O2, CO2, Ar,
N2O, CH4 , O3 etc.
Increase Sea level and temp.
Changes in the
Hydrological
Cycle
Hazards Outbreaks
Sea Ice
Increase Sea level and temp.
Change plankton HAB
Contaminating Shellfish
Increase Use
of Pesticides
Enhance pest activity
Rapid reproducing
Spread after floods
Increase vector-borne virus
Increase livestock
disease
Increase use of Vet.
drug
Increase precipitation,
temp. & humidity
Poorly dried crop
Mycotoxin Produced
Increase pesticides
16

• Importance of integrated approach to food safety, animal
and plant health, with associated environmental risks
• Need to intensify efforts to implement programmes of food
safety control system at national level
– Application of good practices
Climate change related phenomena
highlighted…
– Monitoring and surveillance (food, environment, animal and
human health)
• Need of predictive approaches (modelling, strategies)
17

Overview of
Research Group on Food Safety
Control against Climate Change

Name of Research Group :
“Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change”
Research Group Leader : Prof. Ki-Hwan Park (Chung-Ang Univ.)
Research Grant : $2 Million/year
Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)
Introduction
Climate Change & Food Safety Research
Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)
No. of Research Sub-projects : 23 projects
19

Strategy & Structure of Research Group
1st Mid Unit
Prediction & Model Development
Health evaluation and R&D Planning
Collaboration and Symposium
Food Safety Prediction on Climate
Change
2nd Mid Unit
Bacteria, Virus, Parasites, Shellfish toxin
Mycotoxin, Pesticides, Vet. Drug,
Rapid Detection Method
Control and Analysis of Hazards thru
Simulation and Monitoring
Food Safety
Control
1 2 3 4
3rd Mid Unit 4th Mid Unit
Development of Safety Control
Process Technology
Consumer Awareness Survey
Risk Communication with Expert
Education and Public Relation
Consumer Awareness and Risk
Communication
Low Co2 Tech. & Green foods Policy
Control Technology in Manufacture
Process Distribution, Foreign Materials
System on
Climate
Change
Hazards
Climate
Change
1 2 3 4
Risk
Communication
ProcessingPrediction Model
20

Patent application!
Centralized DatabaseCentralized Database Big dataBig data--mining (data analysis)mining (data analysis)
CCCC--MIMSMIMS ccfsccfs--DMCDMC
Data collection, analysis and construction of
statistical basis for climate change information
• Multi-dimensional data merging, processing
between climate change and hazard variables
• Statistical data-mining
Descriptive analysis
Predictive analysis
Lag-time effect processing
• Risk Profile D/B against climate change
Cause/Effect tracking approach
Provide visual database service
(Monitoring Information Management System
due to climate change)
(Data Mining Center for food safety against climate change)
[Features]
CONTAMINANET
DATABASE
Web based data-
warehouse system
Complete, consistent
and deducted data
acquisition
Systemic database
based on hazard and
food code system
Versatile data
searching and
downloading system
CLIMATE
DATABASE
Past 13yrs. weather
database in Korea
Prediction database by
future scenario in Korea
Support qualitative and
quantitative climate
observation variables
(16 factors)
Special retrieval of
eventual variable
(eg, typhoon)
Food-climate
Composition
database
[Features]
21

PG-ⅣⅣⅣⅣ
PG-ⅢⅢⅢⅢ
PG-ⅡⅡⅡⅡ
Prediction & Impact Assessment on Food
Safety due to Climate Change
2010 Project2010 Project
『Impact Assessment on Food
Safety by Factor Analysis of Climate
Change』
Identification of Direct
& Indirect Impacts on
Food Safety in Korea
Integrated Impact
Assessment on Food
Safety due to CC for
Adaptation
Development of
2012 Plan2012 Plan
『Integrated Impact Assessment on
Food Safety in Korea due to Climate
Change』
20112011
Paradigm of Strategic Plan
Development
Mitigation → Adaptation
↓
Development of
Adaptation Strategies
Development of
model- & Simulation
based Scenarios of
Food Safety in Korea
due to CC
Development of
Impact Assessment
Frame on Food Safety
2011 Project2011 Project
『Prediction & Impact Assessment
on Food Safety due to Climate
Change』
22

2 Area
1 Area
Su-Won
Won-ju
Gang-Neung
I-Cheon
Pyeong-Chang
Po-Hang
Yang-Pyeong
|||| Foodborne Pathogen monitoring on sample in each 3 area |||| Development of Predictive Model
Inoculation : S. aureus etc.
Humidity :
40~80%
Temp : 4~45℃
Incubation
0
2
4
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (hr)
logCFU/g
80%RH
70%RH
60%RH
Growth curve
|||| Microbiological Risk Assessment
MRA simulation model
Analysis of Climate Change Impact on
Foodborne Pathogens
3 Area
Dae-Jeon
Bu-San
Ul-San
Mil-Yang
Nam-Won
Sun-Cheon
Sample : Vegetables
Microorganism : Total bacteria, Coliform, E. coli
Foodborne pathogen : S. aureus, B. cereus, Salmonella spp.,
L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7
ModifiedGompertzmodel
Y=N0+C*exp｛｛｛｛-exp((2.718*SGR/C)*(LT-X)+1)｝｝｝｝
N0,loginitialnumberofcells
-C:differencebetweeninitialandfinalcellnumbers
-LT:delaybeforegrowth,sameunitsasX
-SGR:maximumspecificgrowthrate
-X:time/Y:logcell
GR=0.37103+0.0282*T-2.278*RH+0.01157*T*RH-0.0003822*T2+1.6355*RH2
LT=40.904-1.135*T-55.58*RH-0.1278*T*RH+0.01653*T2+44.94*RH2
Development of Primary predictive model
Development of Secondary predictive model
R2
= 0.951
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observed LT
PredictedLT
)
n
)/log(
(
observedpredicted
10
∑
=
µµ
fB
)
n
|)/log(|
(
observedpredicted
10
∑
=
µµ
fA
nAverage
SEP
dpredictiveobserved
observed
∑ −
=
2
)(
)(
100
%
µµ
µ
Validation of secondary predictive model y=a*exp(b/(x+c))
R2
=0.9934
Temperature (C)
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Time(hr)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Predicted line
Estimated values
95% Prediction Band
y = 1.5509*exp(36.6583/(x+0.1213))
y(hr): Time, x(℃): Current temp
Time-temperature criterion
23

Home Page
|||| www.climate-food.net
24

Food Safety Control Strategy

• An action (ignoring washing hands)
– Carrier of pathogens; cause of consumer health problems in several
regions, even several countries
• Factors affecting food safety
– Origin: Imported foods and ingredients
– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people
Food Safety – Butterfly Effect
– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people
– Science: Organic product, minimally processed food, resistant
microorganism, seasonal foodborne outbreak, weather change (El nino)
• We can't always know what impact our day-to-day decisions
will have farther down the line, but we do know that a small
event can have a big impact.
26

• Climate change likely to affect pathogen types and
spread as well as chemical use and inputs in
agriculture
• Fate and transport of contaminants in the environment
will change
Food Safety Control against CC
• Highly complex problem – some changes could reduce
risks other might increase the risks
• Need to take a whole system approach
27

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Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 2012

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