1. “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
- Archilochus, Greek Poet, 7th Century, B.C.
Sir Isaiah Berlin, the late Oxford philosopher and historian wrote in his 1953 essay, The
Hedgehog and the Fox, that writers and thinkers (and we would add, professional advisors and
asset managers) can be divided into two groups; hedgehogs, who see the world through the
paradigm of a single defining idea and foxes, who draw on a multiplicity of varied experiences
and cannot reduce the world to one idea.
Multidisciplinary thinking & investing
Steven Johnson, famed author and critical thinker has
coined (or at least gotten much of the credit for) the term
“multidisciplinary thinking.” Simply put, multidisciplinary
thinkers observe the world from several different
perspectives and base their ideas and philosophies on a
broader foundation of empiracal data.
History Rhymes
We embrace this and applied a similar approach in how we have thought about the current
environment and the opportunities that presently exist for investors. Looking at the investment
environment through a broader lens, we see a few themes and are weaving these into our
investment strategies. In the last 160 years, from an economic paradigm, there are some
stunning themes:
• Divisive & Costly War
• Economic Challenges
• Innovative Technology
• Natural Resource & Infrastructure Development
• Capital Infusions
In 1865, the Civil War ended (divisive and costly war). The former Confederate states were
decimated, having 40% (roughly $3.3 billion) of their wealth destroyed (economic challenge).
At approximately the same time, entrepreneurs (capital) were building rail lines (infrastructure)
and proving oil reservoirs (natural resources). Immigrants continued to land on Ellis Island from
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SAGE Advice:
A White Paper Series from Managing Partners, Khaled Taha &
Adrian Park
Where Are The Foxes When We Need Them?

2. 1892 to 1954 they set up homes across the eastern half of the US positioning themselves as a
ready and willing workforce for the growing factory base developing in those areas. It was in
this environment with the confluence of the aforementioned themes that mass production
(innovative technology) was born. We
mass produced a wide range of
consumer products including
everything from food stuffs to steel to
consumer products to automobiles.
The result is what we commonly refer
to as the Industrial Revolution; US GDP
increased from $8.1 billion in 1865 to
more than $100 billion in 1929 before
the market crashed. This pattern was
not unique and repeated itself again in
the last century (see illustrations below
and on the following page).
We can see the same pattern looking back over the last 19 years. Although some economic
headwinds still persist with high unemployment, excessive national debt and continued high
supply of existing homes, today we enjoy amazing innovative technologies that do more and
take up less space (e.g. smart phones, medical devices and cloud computing). The US is
marching toward energy independence with 11 years of proven natural gas reserves in the
ground and the real possibility of being a net exporter of energy in 2021. Not only do we have
a healthy infrastructure, but with NAFTA, have strong trading partners in Canada and Mexico
with the ability to move both energy and goods easily, cheaply and efficiently between our
three countries.
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Where Are The Foxes When We Need Them?

3. Also, we should recognize that with the US having substantially withdrawn from Iraq and
Afghanistan, thus ending expensive and divisive wars, we have begun the process of looking
again toward future opportunities. With both the most developed public equity market and the
deepest public debt market in the world the US is positioned well to receive the large pools of
domestic and international monies looking for a place to invest. Thus, as companies continue
to expand, there is a deep well of investor capital in both equity and debt to support that
growth with low cost capital. We believe that the private equity market is poised to play a
much more significant role in capital markets in the next decade.
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Where Are The Foxes When We Need Them?

4. As illustrated in the “Re-Shoring” graphic on the previous page, there are a number of
converging events that could represent a meaningful shift in the landscape domestically. As
these factors move closer to an intersection point we should see more jobs, more positive data
in housing, consistent GDP growth and higher valuations in U.S. equities. With respect to the
five themes, we believe that we are presently in the early stages of a third leg of the Industrial
Revolution, which we have called the Technology Age 2.0 & Manufacturing Renaissance
(illustrated below).
Of course, nothing in life is a straight line and we should also expect bumps along the way.
That said, we are increasingly optimistic in our outlook for both the public and private equity
markets going forward. Finally, we have a strong conviction that by looking at the present
landscape both in the context of the macro economic and market events and in the context of
recent history that we can better understand how these events might coalesce.
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Where Are The Foxes When We Need Them?
Khaled A. Taha
Managing Partner, SPWG
Financial Advisor, RJFS
Adrian R. Park
Managing Partner, SPWG
Financial Advisor, RJFS
444 N Michigan Ave, Suite 3220
Chicago, IL 60611
312.321.1800
1737 S Naperville Rd Suite 202
Wheaton, IL 60189
630.933.0000
812 Busse Hwy
Park Ridge, IL 60068
847-685-8402
Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC
This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a
recommendation. Any opinions are those of Khaled Taha and Adrian Park and not necessarily those of RJFS or
Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee
that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.