2. PROBABILITY
◦ Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event.
◦ There are many real-life situations in which we may have to predict the outcome of an event.
◦ We may be sure or not sure of the results of an event. In such cases, we say that there is a
probability of this event to occur or not occur.
◦ Probability generally has great applications in games, in business to make probability-based
predictions, and also probability has extensive applications in this new area of artificial
intelligence.
3. EXAMPLE OF PROBABILITY
• Weather Forecasting
• Political election
• Flipping a coin or die
• Insurance
• Dying in an accident
• Lottery Tickets
• Playing Cards
• Rolling Dice
4. Example 1: Playing Cards
◦ There are 13 cards of each suit, consisting of 1 Ace, 3 face cards, and 9 number cards.
◦ There are 4 Aces, 12 face cards, and 36 number cards in a 52 card deck.
◦ There is a probability of getting a desired card when we randomly pick one out of 52.
◦ Probability of drawing any card will always lie between 0 and 1.
◦ For example, the probability of picking up an ace in a 52 deck of cards is 4/52; since there are 4
aces in the deck. The odds of picking up any other card is therefore 52/52 – 4/52 = 48/52.
5. Example 2: Weather forecasting
◦ Before planning for an outing or a picnic, we always check the weather forecast.
◦ Suppose it says that there is a 60% chance that rain may occur. Do you ever wonder from where
this 60% come from?
◦ Meteorologists use a specific tool and technique to predict the weather forecast.
◦ They look at all the other historical database of the days, which have similar characteristics of
temperature, humidity, and pressure, etc. And determine that on 60 out of 100 similar days in
the past, it had rained.
