In this presentation given on 4/30/2020, Pat Stone with Williston Financial Group gives his economic perspectives during the COVID Pandemic and how it's affecting the housing market.
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Pat Stone's Economic Forecast from WFG National Title
1. PATRICK F. STONE
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN & FOUNDER
WFG NATIONAL TITLE INSURANCE CO
WILLISTON FINANCIAL GROUP
APRIL 30, 2020
ECONOMIC & INDUSTRY
PERSPECTIVES &THE FUTURE
2. 2
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 2
ANALOGS OR PRIOR
EVENTSTHAT HELP
PROVIDE PERSPECTIVE
3. 3
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 3
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
4. 4
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 4
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
6. 6
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
6
SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 3: Jobs Returning to the Same Manufacturing, Construction, and
Retail Establishments Drove Nearly Half of the Sharp Payroll Rebound in
1983
7. 7
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 7
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
8. 8
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 8
WE ARE IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPETHAN
2007-2009
9. 9
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 9Source: WALL ST JOURNAL
30. 30
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 30
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
31. 31
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 31
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
32. 32
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
32
SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 2: The Fiscal Response Will Result in a Steep Increase in the
Deficit in FY2020
34. 34
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
34
SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 4: Treasury Will Likely Need to Borrow $3 Trillion for the
Remainder of 2020
35. 35
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 35
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
36. 36
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 36
Source: WALL ST JOURNAL
37. 37
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 37
Source: WALL ST JOURNAL
39. 39
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 39
Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Number of Homes for Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended
40. 40
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 40
Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Days on Market
41. 41
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 41
Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Average Price For Sale and Sold
42. 42
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 42
Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Months of Inventory
43. 43
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 43Source: ZILLOW
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
Portland Market Overview
Data through Mar 31, 2020
MARCH 2020 CONDO $307K
MARCH 2020 SINGLE-FAMILY $465K
44. 44
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 44
Source: think-Portland.com
March Real Estate Market Analysis
45. 45
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 45
Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff
46. 46
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 46
Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff
47. 47
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 47
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Social Distancing andTransactions
48. 48
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 48
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
TechnologyTools
49. 49
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 49
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Buyer Interest
50. 50
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 50
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Buyer Behavior
51. 51
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 51
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior
52. 52
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 52
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior
53. 53
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 53
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior
56. 56
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 56
Source: REDFIN
Speedy Sales Are on the Decline
57. 57
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 57
Source: REDFIN
New Listings Continue to Tank
There were 48,965 new-home listings last week, down about 50% from a year ago. That
marks a significant pullback from the 33% decline we reported at the beginning of April.
65. 65
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 65
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
66. 66
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 66
CONCERNS
AND
OUTLOOK
67. 67
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 67
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
68. 68
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 68
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
69. 69
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 69
QUESTIONSTHAT DRIVETO
OUTCOME HOW LONG UNTIL THE HEALTH MANDATES LIFTED
HOW DEEP IS THE CURRENT SHOCK TO THE
ECONOMY
WHAT IS GOVERNMENT DOING TO SOFTEN BLOW
HOW FRAGILE/HEALTHY WAS ECONOMY WHEN
PANDEMIC HIT
WILL THERE BE PERMANENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
70. 70
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 70
FORM OFTHE RECOVERY
“V”
“U”
“W”
“L”
OR ?
71. 71
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 71
Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff
72. 72
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 72
Source: WALL ST JOURNAL
73. 73
APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 73
CONCLUSION
ECONOMY WAS IN GREAT SHAPE
AMERICAN CONSUMER WAS INVERY GOOD
SHAPE
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS IS A MAN MADE RECESSION
KEY QUESTION IS HOW FASTWE RE-EMERGE
REAL ESTATE WILL BE ONE OFTHE HEALTHIER
SECTORS