detailed review of population trends by ethnicity, country for current periods and future horizons

1. 25 Largest Combined Statistical Area (CSA) Shares of Race/ Ethnicity: 2020 Census
Hispanic/ Latinx share of the Atlanta CSA’s population is at 12.2% for the 2020 Census, surging from just over 6 percent at the time of
the 2000 Census. However, this share is fairly low (the 10th lowest) when ranked against the comparable shares in the other 24
largest combined statistical areas (based on 2020 Census populations). Note: The Atlanta CSA is larger than the 29-county MSA, and
includes the Gainesville and Cartersville areas.

2. Change in Population by Race/ Ethnicity 25 Largest CSAs: 2020 Census
Hispanic/ Latinx population increased in each of the 25 largest CSAs 2010-2020, while White Non-Hispanic population declined in eight of
the CSAs. Hispanic increase led race/ ethnicity categories in net increase in 14 of the 25 CSAs. In Atlanta, the Black population grew
substantially faster, and Asian and multiracial growth approached absolute increase for Hispanic/ Latinx.

3. 2020 Census Race/Ethnicity Totals: State of Georgia and Subareas
Hispanic/ Latinx concentration as of the 2020 Census is significantly higher in the Atlanta MSA (at 12% of
total population) than in the rest of the state of Georgia (at 8.2%). Hispanic/ Latinx share of the five core
counties was highest among the “larger than county” aggregations, at 14%. At the county level, nearly 1 in 4
Gwinnett residents reported as Hispanic/ Latinx. The City of Atlanta (at 6%) and Henry County (at 7.7%) have
the lowest Hispanic shares among ARC jurisdictions.

4. 2020 Public School Enrollment by District: 13-County Atlanta Area
So we just saw that Hispanic/ Latinx population represents healthy shares of total populations of counties in the Atlanta area. And
yet the shares are significantly higher—in each area—when the public school enrollment is assessed. Hispanic/ Latinx children are
more than 1 in 5 of all October, 2020 enrollees in Marietta and Buford City, as well as in Gwinnett, Clayton, Cobb, and Cherokee
County public schools. Only Decatur and Atlanta City schools have less than 10% Hispanic/ Latinx students.

5. Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity Totals: 2010-20: State of Georgia and Subareas
Hispanic/ Latinx populations accounted for more than 1 in 5 of net new persons in the 11-county region between 2010 and
2020. In Gwinnett County, nearly 4 of 10 net new residents 2010-2020 was Hispanic/ Latino, and over 1 in 3 were such in
Cobb County. In the state outside the Atlanta MSA, with many counties declining in size overall 2010-20, Hispanic population
was the group that provided the second largest source of population increase. Only in Fulton County as a whole, driven by
low inflow of Hispanics to the City of Atlanta, were fewer than 1 in 10 of net new residents Hispanic. While only the City of
Atlanta and Cherokee added white, non-Hispanic populations, every jurisdiction added Hispanic/ Latinx.

6. Percentage Increase, 2010-2020 by Race/ Ethnicity: 11-County Area
As noted on the prior slide, Hispanic/ Latinx populations grew in every 11-county jurisdiction from 2010-2020, surging by
more than 50 percent in Cherokee, Forsyth, and Henry Counties. These areas were (in 2010) some of the area with the
lowest shares of Hispanic population overall, and remain so—even with the rapid increases of the last decade—in 2020. In
Cherokee County, Hispanic populations grew faster than any othere race/ ethnic group. In most others, percentage increases
trailed those of Asian, non-Hispanic and Mom-Hispanic, Other (including multiracial).

7. Percentage Point Increases in Race/ Etnhnicity Shares, 2010-2020: Comparative Areas
Hispanic populations (blue shading) increased their share of population in every area analyzed above, and by the most in
Gwinnett County (3 percent) . But in all areas, other race/ ethnic growup gained more population share than did Hispanic/
Latjinx—an indication that while growth is very strong, it is beginning to slow in a relative sense over the past decade.

8. Hispanic Latino Foreign-Born Population by Country, 2019 ACS
Those born in Mexico made up just over 1 of every 2 Hispanic foreign-born in the 11-county region in 2019. This is
actually lower than the over 6 in 10 for the rest of the state outside of the Atlanta MSA. An even hgher share of the
state’s Central Americans reside in the Atlanta MSA.

9. Change 2010-2019: Hispanic/Latino Foreign-Born Population by Country, 2010-19 ACS
Growth rates 2010-2019 for those born in Mexico, however, were much lower than for those born in many other
Hispanic/ Latinx countries. Increases for the Puerto Rican, Dominican and Venezuelan populations in the Atlanta
metro and state are more notable over the period. Venezuelan and Dominican increase is overwhelmingly within the
Atlanta MSA. Growth in the Cuban and Salvadoran, as well as Mexican population, is almost as strong outside the
Atlanta metro (in Georgia) as within it.

10. Diving down to the census tract level, we see more detail on the 2020 concentrations of Hispanic populations
along the Buford Highway corridor through north-central Gwinnett, in the northern part of Clayton County, and in
cities of Cobb County and Cherokee County. Source: DataNexus at neighborhoodnexus.org
Share of Hispanic Population by Census Tract: 11-County ARC Region, 2020 Census

11. Numeric Change in Hispanic Population by Census Tract: 11-County ARC Region, 2010- 2020
Absolute increase of Hispanic populations 2010-2020 is indicative of the wide spatial spread of diversity in the
region. Almost all tracts in Gwinnett have added Hispanic persons, as well as all but a few in Cobb. And it’s notable
that, even though shares of Hispanic population in the south of the region remain fairly low, absolute increases
2010-2020 have been strong in that portion of Atlanta. (Source: DataNexus at neighborhoodnexus.org)

12. Percentage Point Change in Hispanic Popby Census Tract: 11-County ARC Region, 2010- 2020
Source: DataNexus at neighborhoodnexus.org

13. Looking at (Census Bureau) Long-Range National Forecasts, by Race/ Ethnicity and Age
So what is coming? More growth in our Hispanic population, as an element of this century’s explosion of racial and ethnic
diversity. In the last national forecast by race/ethnicity and age done in 2017, Hispanic/ Latino population is projected to
grow more than three times faster than the population as a whole from 2020-2040, then a little over three times faster
over the last 20 years of the forecast horizon (2040-2060). And though Hispanics in 2060 continue to represent a larger
share of the population as a whole (at 27.5%) than the 65+ segment (21%), the Hispanic 65+ population is expected to
increase four times over by 2060.

14. ARC Series 16 Forecast: 2015 and 2050 Race/ Ethnicity Shares
Our forecast Series 16 baseline year is 2015, and Hispanic population made up only 11.6% of our 21-
county modeling area’s population at that time. By 2050, we forecast that that share will be 21.4%, or
that over 1 in 5 people in the general Atlanta area will be of Hispanic/ Latinx ethnicity.

15. A Reprise: 2020 Public School Enrollments by District: Race/ Ethnicity Shares
And to remind you about a slide we showed you earlier—locally, the “leading edge” of this increase in Hispanic share
is visible in our 2020 public school enrollments .

16. The Details!
Hispanic/ Latino Forecasts:
ARC Series 16
2015-2050
ARC forecasts that
Hispanic population
will increase nearly
three times over,
across our 21-
county modeling
area, between
2015-50. Gwinnett
will again be a
leader, matched by
significant gains in
Fulton and Forsyth.
https://33n.atlantaregional.com/arc-series-16-forecast