Manomet is a non-profit organization committed to environmental problem solving through science-based solutions. The presentation discusses climate change impacts on ecosystems and adaptation planning, focusing on the Taunton River Watershed in Massachusetts. Environmental justice issues are highlighted as lower-income communities face greater vulnerability. Adaptation challenges are compared between a managed forest site and a sensitive bog site requiring extensive restoration. Cost-benefit analyses are important to determine if and how to adapt different sites.

1. Planning for Tomorrow's
Climate Today
Eric Walberg, AICP
Senior Program Leader
Climate Change
Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences

2. Manomet Overview
Manomet is a non-profit based in Massachusetts,
and our work takes us all over the hemisphere
 We are committed to building science-based,
cooperative solutions to environmental
problems.
 Our focus areas include-




preparing America for climate change,
creating a sustainable relationship between our
economy and the natural world,
restoring and maintaining shorebird populations in
the western hemisphere, and

3. Presentation Overview
 Climate Change, Ecosystem Services and
Adaptation
 Taunton River Watershed Adaptation Plan
• Green Infrastructure
• Environmental Justice
• GIS
 Comparison of Challenges Presented by Two
Sites
 Group Discussion

4. Global Climate Change

Two factors differentiate the current
situation with global warming from
previous cycles


The rate of change is significantly greater
than in the past
The changes are occurring against the
backdrop of unprecedented stress on
ecosystems and the services that they
provide

5. Vostok (Antarctica) Ice Core
Data
in 2050
470
ppm
Today
2,400 yrs ago
Image Credit: Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis
5

6. Climate Change in New England
The climate in New England is warming
rapidly
 New England is getting wetter and
extreme precipitation events are
becoming more common and severe
 Projections are for both of these trends
to continue, setting the stage for
increased incidence of extreme heat and
flooding


7. Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

8. Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment,
http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

9. What will
Massachusetts be
like in 2100?
A: either Maryland or South
Carolina
n of Concerned Scientists. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the Northeas t.
://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf

10. Sea Level Rise in New England
Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

11. Image Credit: Confronting Climate Change in the Northeast,
Union of Concerned Scientists

12. Ecosystem Services
Those services that intact, healthy
ecosystems provide to man
 Ecosystem services are adversely
impacted by multiple stressors including
urbanization, pollution, resource
extraction, agriculture
 Climate change is an increasingly
important stresor


13. Goal to identify ecosystem service impacts of
climate change and adaptation measures that
address Climate Change Adaptation Project
Manomet those impacts
 Vulnerability assessment followed by
adaptation recommendations
 Working at a set of sites in Massachusetts and
Maine
 Two geographic scales: landowner and
landscape


14. Landscape Scale Sites

Three landscape scale sites:


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Taunton River Watershed in Massachusetts
Sebago Lake Watershed in Maine
Sagadahoc County in Maine

15. Landowner Scale Sites
Landowner sites include forestry,
agriculture, conservation lands and
residential development sectors
 Massachusetts sites: Century Bog, River
Run residential development and
Tidmarsh Farms
 Maine sites: Allen Whitney Forest, a
private woodlot, a cattle farm and an
apple orchard


16. Taunton River Watershed Overview
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Located in southern Massachusetts
One of three main tributary watersheds
to Narragansett Bay
562 square miles
43 cities and towns
National Wild and Scenic Designation

19. Taunton River Watershed
Vulnerability



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Sea Level Rise
Fresh water flooding
Rising water table
Water balance issues
Environmental justice concerns

22. 
Behind the state in indicators of economic
strength
2012: New Bedford and Fall River ranked as the
Population ofhighest unemployment rates in the
3rd and 4th Southeastern Massachusetts
state


Very diverse
2009: 25% of the population reported Portuguese
as their primary ancestry; nearly 3% reported
Cape Verdean heritage

Other fast growing racial Regional
Source: Commonwealth of Massachusetts and Southeastern and ethnic minority
Planning & Economic Development District (SRPEDD)
groups include African Americans (+60%) and


23. “All people have a right to be protected from
environmental pollution and to live in and
enjoy a clean and healthful environment.”
Commonwealth of Massachusetts
Environmental Justice (EJ)
 Massachusetts EJ policy established 2002

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Median annual household income
% minority residents
% foreign born residents
English language proficiency
108 EJ communities within the state; 12
within the watershed (2000 Census data)

24. 
Directs state resources to serve EJ
communities across the state
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Support for public participation/outreach
Environmental Justice (EJ)
Enforcement of environmental rules and
regulations
Investments in economic growth
Technical assistance, grants, audits, etc.

25. 
Additional considerations
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Age
Education
Social Vulnerability
Employment status
“While social variables such as income and
age do not determine who will be hit by a
natural disaster, they do determine a
population’s ability to prepare, respond, and
recover when disaster does strike.” Oxfam
America

26. 
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Per capita income
% families below the poverty line
% population not in the laborAnalysis
Social Vulnerability force
% population with less than a high school
diploma
% population that speaks a language other
than English at home
% population greater than or equal to age 65

27. Location
Per
Capita
Incomea
% Families % Not in
% Less
below
Labor than High
Poverty
Forceb
Schoolc
U.S.
$27,334
20.12
12.74
Massachusetts
13.54
Bristol County
$33,966
7.45
32.30
21.05
Social Vulnerability11.31
Analysis
$27,736
8.77
32.29
19.90
20.77
Fall River
$20,337
15.30
10.08
17.78
a. Average income in 2010 dollars
b. For population ≥ 16 years
c. For population ≥ 25 years
d. Spoken at home for population ≥ 5 years
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey
35.01
38.59
14.97
32.45
% Language
other than
Englishd
% ≥ 65
years
33.47
13.85

28. 
Results for Fall River
14 Census Block Groups met 5/6 criteria
 4 Census Block Groups met 6/6 criteria
Social Vulnerability Analysis

No overlap between EJ Census Block Groups (2000
Census data)
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey and 2010 Census Block Groups


30. 
Results for Fall River


6 Census Block Groups prone to flooding
4 Census Block Groups at risk to storm surge
Social Vulnerability Analysis
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey and 2010 Census Block Groups

33. Incorporation and analysis of
geospatial information
GIS played primarily a support role
 Data selection, map creation, and
ecosystem service ID an iterative,
feedback-driven process


34. Incorporation and analysis of
Example of a
geospatial information
map and
data that did
not make the
final cut.

35. Incorporation and analysis of
Summary
geospatial information overlay
Highlights “hot spots” of
co-occurrence
Tradeoff between
simplicity and transparency
of process
compared to…
Individual maps
Allow focus to be drawn to
appropriate area, resource,
and scale
Allow local experts to use
data as necessary and
appropriate to enact change

36. Incorporation and analysis of
geospatial information

Data sources:

International •
Academic
 National
•
Local

State •
NGOs
 Private sector
Different services are of different
relative importance at different sites.
 The identification and analysis of
ecosystem services is not a one-size

37. TO ADAPT OR NOT – A
TALE OF TWO SITES
Hector Galbraith, PhD
EcoSolutions
October 2013

38. WHY ADAPT?
 Track record on mitigation is not great!
 Conserve threatened and sensitive
resources
 Need to deal with changes that are
already occurring
 Locked into another couple of decades of
change

39. WHERE SHOULD WE ADAPT - A TALE
OF TWO SITES
Allen-Whitney Forest, ME
•700 acre parcel
•Mainly northern hardwood forest
•Managed for forest products by NEFF
•Supports diverse wildlife community

40. A TALE OF TWO SITES
•Invasive species
•Pests
•Motorized recreation

41. A TALE OF TWO SITES
Japanese barberry

42. ADAPTATION AT ALLENWHITNEY

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Already managed
landscape
Already control other
stressors
Foundational species not
vulnerable
To do: modify age structure
of forest
Big $$$/time investment
not required
Yes we can!

43. ADAPTATION AT CENTURY BOG,

44. CENTURY BOG – 200 ACRE
CRANBERRY BOG

45. CENTURY BOG – STILL HAS
VALUED ECO RESOURCES

46. CENTURY BOG – SENSITIVE
RESOURCES

47. Coastal Plain Pond

48. CENTURY BOG
 Major restoration – how?
 We are attempting to safeguard extremely
sensitive species and thermal habitat
 Can it be done?
 Is it worth it?

49. RESTORATION OPTIONS AT CENTURY
BOG

50. CENTURY BOG – 200 ACRE
CRANBERRY BOG

51. CROSS SECTION THRU FUTURE
CENTURY BOG

52. COMPLICATIONS AT CENTURY
BOG
 Sticker shock - $3m
over 7-8 years
 Non-climate stressors
- Dieldrin

53. SHOULD WE ADAPT: COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS
 “value” of targets versus:


$$$ costs and competing uses for funding
Likelihood of success
• Sensitivity of targets and magnitude of projected
change
• Technical feasibility
• Guarantee of long-term funding?
• Complication of other stressors?
 Alternative success measures
 Vulnerability analysis

54. SHOULD WE ADAPT?
 Yes, adaptation is essential, but:

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
Depends on site and feasibility of proposed
actions
Depends on future climate scenarios
Depends on resource sensitivities
Depends on investments required
Depends on other uses for $$$ and time