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The Real Estate Report
SAN FRANCISCO
Home Sales Pop in March
After four straight months of year-over-year sales
declines, sales of single-family, re-sale homes
jumped 6.5% last month.
Condo/loft sales, on the other hand, were down
year-over-year, albeit by only 1.6%. Compare that
to the previous three out of four months when sales
were down by double-digits.
Prices of homes and condo/lofts also popped last
month, rising by double-digit figures. See below for
the full details.
MARCH MARKET STATISTICS
The median price for homes jumped 25% year-
over-year, this after two months of single-digit
appreciation. The average price was up 22.5%
from last year. Both the average and median prices
set new all-time highs in March.
Home sales bounced back from a weak start to the
year and were up 43.2% from February. Compared
to last March, home sales were up 6.5%.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes has
been over 100% for thirty-six of the past thirty-
seven months. It was 110.0% last month.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes rose 1.8 points to –18.9. Sales
momentum for condos/lofts gained 0.4 of a point
to –8.3.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes rose one point to +12.2.
Pricing momentum for condos/lofts dropped 0.2
of a point to +12.53.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
For the second month in a row, the median price
of condos/lofts set another all-time high. The
median price was up 0.5% from February. Year-
over-year, the median price was up 13.9%.
Condo/loft sales were down 1.6% compared to last
March, but up a whopping 59.9% from February.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the thirty-seventh month in a row: 108.3%.
That’s the highest it has been since June 2005!
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and your options.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
APRIL/MAY 2015
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2
> HOME STATISTICS ..............................2
> KEEP YOUR PROPERTY TAX BASE......3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4
Mar 15 Feb 15 Mar 14
Home Sales: 179 125 168
Median Price: 1,250,000$ 1,115,000$ 1,000,032$
Average Price: 1,788,128$ 1,501,175$ 1,459,325$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 110.0% 111.8% 110.0%
Days on Market: 24 27 32
Mar 15 Feb 15 Mar 14
Condo Sales: 251 157 255
Median Price: 1,105,000$ 1,100,000$ 970,000$
Average Price: 1,312,366$ 1,204,474$ 1,067,657$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 108.3% 107.6% 108.2%
Days on Market: 28 29 31
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 17% 18% 78% Dec-14 Feb-12
12-month 17% 23% 61% Mar-15 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 24% 34% 74% Mar-15 Jan-12
12-month 18% 30% 57% Mar-15 Jan-12
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2014 & Peak & Trough
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2015 rereport.com
2. Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the Na-
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as
compiled by HSH.com. The av-
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Economy Not Cooperating, Mortgage Rates To Ease
Apr 3, 2015 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage
tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator
(FRMI) -- found the overall average rate for 30-year
fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged this week,
at 3.81%. The FRMI's 15-year companion managed
a small decline of single basis point to 3.15%. Rates
on fully-insured FHA-backed 30-year FRMs remain
well below their conforming counterparts but sported
a decline of two basis points this week to an average
rate of 3.63%. Finally, the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM fell
by four basis points (0.04%), slumping to 2.93% on
average for the week. All these mortgage products
are either at or very near 2015 lows as the traditional
spring home buying season begins to kick in.
Construction spending failed to ignite in February,
declining by 0.1%, so the year began with two con-
secutive declines in outlays. There was a 0.2% fall in
spending for residential projects during the month,
and an 0.8% slide in public works spending, but com-
mercial building managed a 0.5% gain after a tough
January. Total spending is modestly above last year
at this time, revealing a 2.1% gain when comparing
the two periods. With sales of new homes appearing
to pick up in recent months, we should start to see a
larger contribution from residential spending.
Despite an on-going mixed bag of economic news,
consumers were a bit more confident about their
situations in March, according to the Conference
Board. Their index of Consumer Confidence rose by
2.5 points during the month, recapturing half of Feb-
ruary's dip. Although assessments of current condi-
tions were more pessimistic, optimism about the days
yet to come rebounded, so there is some belief that
there is more light at the end of a somewhat dimmer
tunnel. Sending plans were mixed, with a gain in
expectations for the purchase of a car, but a slump in
those considering buying a home.
The Fed has made it as clear as it can that rates will
be rising before long. Even with a indeterminate and
changing expected starting point, that there will be a
starting point before long is sufficient to keep mort-
gage rates from falling by much (absent some new
economic calamity, domestically or elsewhere).
There should be some softness for mortgage rates
as we move into next week, when we'll get a look at
the strength of service business activity, measures of
consumer borrowing and import prices and a couple
of other items. On balance, and even if extraordinar-
ily strong, there's probably not enough data due out
next week to cause a lift in rates, so we're more likely
to shed a couple more basis points from these levels.
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2015 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,250,000$ 1,788,128$ 179 24 110.0% 25.0% 22.5% 6.5% 12.1% 19.1% 43.2%
D1: Northwest 2,075,000$ 2,186,008$ 18 18 107.8% 64.3% 39.8% 50.0% 30.9% 30.0% 50.0%
D2: Central West 1,130,025$ 1,194,169$ 31 19 116.6% 18.6% 22.5% -13.9% 2.7% 13.4% 82.4%
D3: Southwest 905,000$ 937,000$ 7 50 123.1% 21.8% 12.7% -30.0% 20.7% 6.6% 40.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,141,500$ 1,687,656$ 16 27 109.1% -15.8% 12.4% -38.5% -7.0% 35.5% -15.8%
D5: Central 2,252,500$ 2,509,083$ 34 17 108.6% -10.1% -5.4% 36.0% 17.6% 23.0% 100.0%
D6: Central North -$ -$ 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D7: North 5,087,500$ 5,097,208$ 12 19 107.5% 13.1% 14.5% 71.4% -15.1% -20.0% 140.0%
D8: Northeast 1,655,000$ 1,655,000$ 2 32 106.7% -74.5% -74.5% 100.0% -33.8% -33.8% 100.0%
D9: Central East 1,425,000$ 1,492,071$ 21 21 112.5% 16.8% 24.0% 75.0% 6.7% 4.5% -8.7%
D10: Southeast 775,000$ 764,629$ 37 37 110.5% 20.2% 16.8% -5.1% 10.7% 5.2% 48.0%
March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-08
04-08
07-08
10-08
01-09
04-09
07-09
10-09
01-10
04-10
07-10
10-10
01-11
04-11
07-11
10-11
01-12
04-12
07-12
10-12
01-13
04-13
07-13
10-13
01-14
04-14
07-14
10-14
01-15
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and
older get a one-time chance to sell their primary resi-
dence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a
new one, but the market value of the new home gener-
ally must be equal to or less than the market value of
the old home.
Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California
homeowners who want to downsize but don't want to
give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in
their existing home.
Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for prop-
erty-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership
or new construction. In between ownership changes,
the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to
exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary
reductions when property values go down.)
KEEP YOUR PROPERTY TAX BASE
Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their
base-year value from an existing primary residence to a
new primary residence, but there are restrictions.
The new home must be in the same county as the old
one or in one of ten counties that accept transfers of
base-year value from other counties. The ten counties
are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, River-
side, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa
Clara, and Ventura.
Also, the new home must be purchased or built within
two years - before or after - the sale of the original prop-
erty.
If the new house is purchased before the old house is
sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase
date cannot exceed 100% of the old home's market
value on the date it is sold.
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2015 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2015 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,105,000$ 1,312,366$ 251 28 108.3% 13.9% 22.9% -1.6% 0.5% 9.0% 59.9%
D1: Northwest 1,225,000$ 1,414,750$ 8 14 110.3% 11.4% 33.1% -11.1% 28.9% 50.3% -11.1%
D2: Central West 760,000$ 760,000$ 1 30 117.1% -13.6% -13.6% -50.0% -5.6% -22.1% -66.7%
D3: Southwest 545,000$ 545,000$ 2 14 111.9% 14.7% -2.6% -33.3% n/a n/a n/a
D4: Twin Peaks 600,000$ 600,000$ 1 13 133.6% -3.2% -7.3% -75.0% -28.6% -21.7% -66.7%
D5: Central 1,070,000$ 1,281,578$ 49 24 113.6% 1.0% 18.2% -3.9% -2.7% 14.0% 113.0%
D6: Central North 1,000,000$ 1,138,536$ 29 26 114.5% 8.6% 15.6% 0.0% 12.4% 25.5% 61.1%
D7: North 1,626,500$ 1,743,928$ 24 14 114.2% 27.1% 12.9% 26.3% -4.6% 3.7% 20.0%
D8: Northeast 1,354,166$ 1,573,644$ 30 35 102.0% 53.0% 47.8% -45.5% 20.9% 15.5% 20.0%
D9: Central East 1,099,000$ 1,250,608$ 101 35 104.7% 15.1% 19.3% 27.8% -4.4% 3.9% 90.6%
D10: Southeast 825,000$ 741,000$ 6 23 105.8% 75.5% 42.0% 100.0% 19.9% 7.7% 200.0%
March Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
4. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2015 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2015 rereport.com