Simulating the Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis Presented by Ismael Fofana at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop

1. Simulating the Impact of Climate
Change and Adaptation
Strategies on Farm
Productivity and Income:
A Bioeconomic Analysis
Presented by:
Ismael Fofana
International Food Policy
Research Institute - Dakar
www.agrodep.org
AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change
Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
Please check the latest version of this presentation on:
http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop

2. Simulating the Impact
of Climate Change and
Adaptation Strategies
on Farm Productivity
and Income: A
Bioeconomic Analysis
Ismaël Fofana
International Food Policy
Research Institute
West and Central Africa
Dakar, Senegal

3. 1.
1 Issue and objective
2. Methodology
- Biophysical Model
- Economic Model
- Climate Scenarios
3. Results

4. 1. Issue and objective
• Our
O r climate is changing more and more
changing;
evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels,
frequency and severity of droughts and floods …
floods,
• Agricultural
A i lt l sector i hi hl climate sensitive
t is highly li t iti
• Climate defines production areas for crops
• Climate’s effect on yield is important

5. 1. Issue and objective (cont.)
Objective
• Better understand the impact of climate change
on farmers and agricultural p
g production
• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to
optimize food production
• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before
moving into a large and general analysis

6. 2. Methodology (cont.)
S
Scenarios on changes i
i h in
temperature, precipitation, & CO2
Gross Profit
Margin
6 Future
Climate
Scenarios
S i
Farm
Econ. Model Biophysical
(Linear optimization) Model
(CropSyst)
Fixed
Prices Crop yields
Inputs use
Price taking
assumption

7. CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation Model
LOCATION
 WEATHER
 Storms
 Evapotranspiration
 Freezing climates
 Wind
CROP
 Classification
 Planting
 Growth
 Morphology MANAGEMENT
 Phenology  Harvest
 Vernalization  Irrigation
 Photoperiod  Clipping
 Harvest  Nitrogen
g
 Residue  Conservation
 Nitrogen  Tillage
 Salinity
 CO2
 Dormancy
SOIL
 Leaching
 Runoff
 RUSLE
 Volatilization
 Texture
 Hydraulics

8. CropSyst (cont.)
Crop growth

9. CropSyst (cont.)
Soil texture

10. CropSyst (cont.)
Evapotranspiration model

11. CropSyst (cont.)
Irrigation

12. CropSyst (cont.)
Hard wheat
(RL 39% + IL 16%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fodder
barley SIMULATION CONTROLE
(RL 2%) Rotation Soft wheat
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Soil profile (RL 4%)
Residue [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Nitrogen
Runoff
Fava beans
CO2
(RL 2%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Validation
Oat hay
Chi k
Chickpeas (IL 8%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
(RL 1%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

13. CropSyst (cont.)
Simulation
Sim lation controle

14. CropSyst (cont.)
Crop and management rotation table

15. CropSyst (cont.)
Atmospheric CO2

16. CropSyst (cont.)
Runtime graphic display
u t e g ap c d sp ay
Atmospheric conditions graph
• Average daily temperature
• Actual evapotranspiration
Growth • Potential evapotranspiration
stage • Precipitation Atmospheric conditions graph
graph • Runoff • Plant height
• Actual transpiration • Biomass
• Potential transpiration • Leaf area index
• Green area index
• Total stress
• Nitrogen stress
• Light stress
g
• Water stress
Harvest
• Temperature stress
Totals
Display Plant
Pl t Plant Available
Pl t A il bl
Available Nitrogen graph
Water graph [ammonium & nitrate]

17. Validation
Real yield Simulated yield
50
45
40
35
Calibration results
Yield (ton/ha)
30
25
for irrigated hard
g
20
15 wheat
10
5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Years
Real yield
Real yield Simulated yield
Simulated yield
60
50
Calibration results
/ha)
40
Yield (ton/
for rainfed hard 30
wheat 20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Year

18. No modeling of:
• Tree crops
• Weeds
W d
• Diseases
• Pests
• Grassland
• Livestock
• Physical damage (soil)
• Plant characteristics
• Intercropping system
• Food quality
q y

19. Crop Development Models (incomplete list)
International
I i l
Decision Support System for Consortium for http://www.icasa.ne
DSSAT
Agrotechnology Transfer Agricultural Systems t/dssat
Applications
The Commonwealth
Agricultural Production Scientific and http://www.apsim.in
APSIM
Systems Simulator Industrial Research fo
Organization
Cropping Systems Washington State http://www.bsye.
CropSyst
Simulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst
wsu edu/cropsyst
United States
Erosion Productivity Impact http://epicapex.brc.
EPIC Department of
Calculator tamus.edu
Agriculture
http://wwww.fao.or
Aquacrop crop water productivity model FAO
g
Wageningen http://www.wofost.
http://www wofost
WOFOST WOrld FOod STudies
University wur.nl

20. Economic Model
Objective
   
max     c , m  Tc , m  with  c , m    y c , m , j  pc , j     qc , m , i  pc , i 
L
c ,m
 j   i 
Constraints
Soil occupation:  Tc,m  T S
c m
min5 years max5 years
Rotation: Scc,mi  Scf ,mi and S c  Sc  S c
Water:  Wc ,t  Wt s
c
Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for the
Animal food:
change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)

21. Assumptions (cont.)
• Rational decision making with gross margins the
only variable influencing surface allocation
• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)
• No constraint on the farm’s access to other
productive factors e g labor and capital
factors, e.g.
• Water supply mostly comes from surface water
and its availability is proportionally affected by the
change in rainfall
g

22. Climate Change Scenarios
Change in daily temperature
CO2 Change in
concentration daily
precipitation +1°C
C +2°C
C +3°C
3C
-10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
700 ppm
-20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6

23. 2. Methodology (cont.)
A
Assumption on changes i
ti h in
temperature, precipitation, & CO2
Gross Profit
Margin
6 Future
Climate
Scenarios
S i
Farm
Econ. Model Biophysical
(Linear optimization) Model
(CropSyst)
Fixed
Prices Crop yields
Inputs use
Price taking
Assumption

24. 2. Methodology
GHG
Emissions
Global/Regional Future
Climate
Circulation Models Scenarios
5
Future
Climate
Scenarios
Micro- Biophysical
Behavioral Model
Model
Crop yields
Inputs use
Prices GHG emissions
2
4
Multi-Sectoral
Partial/General Crop yields
Inputs use
Pi
Prices
Equilibrium GHG emissions
Model

25. 3. Results
Productivity effects (%)
Productivity loss:15 to
20% in the near-term; 35
to 55% in the long run
Income effects (%)
Income loss: 5 to 20% in
the near-term; 45 to 70%
in the long run

26. 3. Results (cont.)
Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)
• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops
(with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)
• Precipitation-induced
Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as
the climate warms up

27. 3. Results (cont.)
Yield of irrigated oat hay ( )
g y (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat ( )
g (%)
Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)

28. 3. Results (cont.)
Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)
Compensation
for the negative
effects of
climate change
li t h
through
irrigation is
Percentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only
for a 1°C
increase in
temperature

29. Summary
1.
1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC
15-20% 35 55%
35-55%
2. Rev.
2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC
5 20% 45-70%
45 70%
3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops
g p p
4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as
p p yg p
the climate warms up
5. Some crops less affected than others
6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, i worthwhile
6 I i ti d t ti t t is th hil
only for a 1°C increase in temperature

30. Thank you for your attention
More information at
www.ifpri.org
www.agrodep.org
g p g