Demography Lecture.pptx

DEMOGRAPHY
Professor Dr. AB Rajar, MBBS, Dip-Diab, MPH, Ph.D. CPHE
Director of Research and Innovative Center
[IBN-E-SINA UNIVERSITY]
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 1

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• After completing this module, the
participants would be able to:
i. Understand the basics of demography
ii. Explain in detail the demographic process
& cycle /stages.
iii. Describe the basic measures of fertility
and mortality.
iv. Discuss the demographic transition and
population pyramid
v. Enlist the population profile of Pakistan in
the context of demographic features.

INTRODUCTION
• The term “Demography” is the statistical and mathematical
study of the human population's size, composition, and
spatial distribution and of changes over time in these
aspects through the operation of five fertility processes:
mortality, marriage, migration, and social mobility.
• Usually, the demographic data are drawn from various
sources such as:
• National censuses,
• Civil registration systems,
• and sample surveys.

INTRODUCTION
• It comprises two words; “Demos" means people, and
“Graphos” means drawing.
• The study of populations, especially regarding size and
density, fertility, mortality, growth, age distribution,
migration, and vital statistics and the integration of all
these with social and economic conditions. (Last)

TYPES OF DEMOGRAPHY
• It means the study of anatomy
or structure of community and
their environment in the given
population.
Static
Demography
• It deals with physiology or
function of communities as
regards changing pattern of
mortality, fertility and migration.
Dynamic
Demography

• Age
• Sex
• Education level
• Income
• Households, family
• Urbanization
• Public utilities
• Information on the home and
it’s facilities
• Ethnicity
Vital statistics
• Births (natality)
• Fertility
• Deaths (mortality)
• Reproduction
• Marital status (marriage, divorce)
Migration
• Emigration
• Commuters
• Immigration
Status of population Numerical changes of Population
DEMOGRAPHY
Structure (Point of Time) Dynamism (Period of Time)

DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY
• Scientific study of human populations and changes within
them
• Mainly Concerned
1. Size of populations
2. Distribution of populations
3. Composition (structure) of populations
4. Changes (increase or decrease in population size and
its composition)

TERM DEFINITION
• Size:
• Size is the total number of
persons in that area.

TERM DEFINITION
• STRUCTURE:
• Structure is the population
distribution among its age
and sex groupings. E.g.,
• How many persons are
below five and above 40
years?
• How many females are in
the population?

TERM DEFINITION
• DISTRIBUTION:
• Distribution of people means
the arrangement of people
in space at a given time,
i.e.,
• Rural %age
• Urban %age

TERM DEFINITION
• CHANGE:
• It is the growth or decline of
the total population or one
of its structural units.
• Is the population increasing
or decreasing?

IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• Fertility:-Actual reproductive performance of a women
• Fecundity:- Physiological capabilities of women to
reproduce
• In Migration (IM):-Number of persons moving into the
area for permanent residence, i.e., Immigration / In
Migration (IM)
• Out Migration (OM):- Number of persons moving out of
the area to elsewhere, i.e., Emigration / Out Migration (OM)

• Net Migration = In Migration-Out Migration
• Urbanization:-Occurs due to the migration of rural
population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban
population and growth of cities
• Population growth rate:-rate at which a given population
is expected to increase
• Closed Population:- A population with no migratory flow
either in or out so that changes in population size occur only
through births and deaths

• Closed Population:- A population with no migratory flow
either in or out so that changes in population size occur only
through births and deaths.
• Reasons for Migration:
Push Factors:-
1. Widespread
unemployment
2. Lack of farmland
3. War, law & order situation
4. Political instability
5. Religious harassment, etc.
Pull Factors:-
1. Booming economy
2. Favorable immigration
laws,
3. Free agricultural land, etc.

• REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY:-
• Two births to a couple during their reproductive life, just enough
to replace them
• In developed countries, a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.1 is
considered to be a replacement level

• MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH:-
• Tendency of a population to continue to grow beyond the
time when replacement level fertility has been achieved
• Characteristic of population growth - sharp decline in births
does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase

• POPULATION DOUBLING TIME:-
• Time that would take for a population to double in size
• 1% per year increase would cause the population to double
in about 70 years
• If the population is increasing at 3% per year, then the
doubling time will be 70 ÷ 3 = 23.3 years

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS

Fertility/Nalality Mortality Marriage Migration Social Mobility
Demographic process/components/factors influencing
Population growth.

• FERTILITY/NATALITY:
• Fertility is defined as the ability of a man or a woman
to cause the conception of a child.
• MORTALITY:
• It means death. It is a vital event and measured by
CDR i.e. Basic mortality measure is the crude death
rate.

• MIGRATION:
• Migration means mobility from or within the country.
It affects the population of an area or country but
not the whole world.
• MARRIAGE:
• Marriage age is 18 years on average. If it will be 21
years, the population will decrease by 25% because
the childbearing duration of females decreases.

DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE)

High
Stationary
Early
Expanding
Late
Expanding
Low
Stationary
Decline
• First Stage:-High Stationary
• Second Stage:-Early Expanding
• Third Stage:-Late Expanding
• Forth Stage:- Low Stationary
• Fifth Stage:-Decline

1st Stage:- (High stationery)
(BR & DR )
• High birth rate and high death rate
population remain unchanged.
2nd Stage:- (Early Expanding)
• Birth rate remained unchanged, and
the high death rate began to decline

3rd Stage:- (Late Expanding)
• Birth rate tends to fall, and high death
rate still declines further
• Population continues to grow because
birth exceeds the death
4th Stage (Low stationary):
• This stage is characterized by a low
birth rate & low death rate.
• Stability in the population.
5th Stage (Declining):
• In the declining stage birth rate is lower
than the death rate.
• Fall in population

Population Dynamics

POPULATION DYNAMICS
• The dynamics of change in the total population can be
understood with the help of the basic demographic
equation
• Pt1= Pt0+(B-D)+(IM-OM)
• Pt1= Future Population
• Pt0= Present Population
• (B-D) =Birth-Death
• (IM-OM) =In-migration-Out Migration

BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
• Pt1= Pt0+(B-D)+(IM-OM)
• Number of live Births to mothers living in the area (B)
• Number of Deaths of residents (D)
• Number of persons moving into the area for permanent
residence, i.e. Immigration / In Migration (IM)
• Number of persons moving out of the area to elsewhere i.e.,
Emigration / Out Migration (OM)

BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
• Natural Increase (B-D):- surplus (or deficit) of births
over deaths
• Net Migration (IM-OM):- Net effect of immigration and
emigration on an area’s population (increase or
decrease)
• POPULATION GROWTH =
Natural Increase (B-D) + Net Migration (IM-OM)

BASIC FERTILITY MEASURES

CRUDE BIRTH RATE:
• It is the most straightforward
measure of fertility.
• So-called crude because the
denominator includes a population
not “at risk” of giving birth (i.e.,
men and women of all ages).
CBR =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑑−𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000

• GFR is a refined measure over CBR
because it only includes women of
reproductive age.
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR).
GFR =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 15−49 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000

• Number of live birth in a year to
1000 women in any age-specific
group.
• It is adjusted for age and
determines the fertility rate of
women in each age group.
AGE- SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR).
ASFR =
𝐿𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
× 1000

• TFR is defined as the average
number of children a woman would
have if she were to pass through her
reproductive years bearing children
at the same rates as the woman now
in each age group.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR).
TFR = Sum of ASFRs x 5 ( because ASFR is calculated in 5 years age intervals).

• GRR is the average number of girls
born to women if she experiences the
current fertility pattern throughout
their reproductive span (15-44 or 49
years), assuming no mortality.
GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE (GRR).
GRR =
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛
𝑊𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦

• NRR is the number of daughters a newborn girl will bear during
her lifetime assuming fixed age-specific fertility and mortality
rates.
• NRR is a demographic indicator.
• NRR of 1 is equivalent to attaining approximately 2-child norm.
• NRR less than 1,then reproductive performance of population is
said to be below replacement level.
• Demographers are of the view that the goal of NRR =1 can be
achieved only if at least 60% of the eligible couples are
effectively practicing family planning.
NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR).

CHILD WOMEN RATIO (CWR).
• This ratio is used where birth
registration statistics either do not exist
or are inadequate.
• It is estimated through data derived
from censuses.

BASIC MORTALITY MEASURES

MORTALITY
• Mortality means death.
• Mortality is a relationship of death cases to the whole
population.
• Two basic types of mortality:
1. General (crude) mortality rate or death rate.
2. Specific mortality rates.
• Age and sex-related (special rates: infant mortality and
fetal losses)
• Cause related(diseases, injuries, suicide, homicide)
• Life expectancy(sex and age-related)

CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
• Crude death rate(or mortality rate) is the number of
death cases in a year per 1000 of the population.
• Crude Death/Mortality Rate =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑑−𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
• Calculation of example country’s CDR: No of death cases =
135,000 and the mid-year population = 10,000,000
CDR =
135,000
10,000,000
= 0.0135 × 1000 = 13.5 deaths/1000

AGE AND SEX-RELATED MORTALITY RATE:
• CMRs can be computed for both genders and age groups.
• The age group under 1 year is separately treated (the infant
mortality).
• Age Specific Death Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑋

INFANT MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of deaths of infants under one year (365
days) old in a given year per 1,000 live births that occurred
in the same year.
• Age Specific Death Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000

INFANT MORTALITY RATE
• This IMR rate is divided up for 4 subgroups and often
used as an indicator of the level of health in a country.
1. Perinatal Mortality within 24 hrs.
2. Post natal Mortality within first week of life.
3. Neonatal mortality, death occurring at 7 -27 days of life.
4. Post neonatal mortality, death occurring between 28 to 365
days of life.

PERINATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• Perinatal mortality rate: Separated perinatal mortality (first
24 hours) does not include stillbirths:
• Perinatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 24 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
× 1000

POSTNATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the death of infants in between 1-6 days of life.
• Postnatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 1−6 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒
× 1000

NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of infants died between 7 – 27 days of
life in a year from the total number of infants born in
the same year.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate:
× 1000

POST NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of infants who die between 28 – 365 days
of life in a year from the total number of infants born in the
same year.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate:
×
1000

MATERNAL MORTALITY
• Special case of sex-related mortality.
• Represents death cases of women who die during
pregnancy and childbirth inclusive the first 42 days after the
delivery(WHO definition).
• The number per year is relatively small (developed
countries), thus maternal mortality rate is computed per
100,000 live births.
• ~ 11/100,000 in the developed countries.

MATERNAL MORTALITY
• MMR is the number of women dying in pregnancy and
childbirth per 1000 live births.
• It measures the risk of women dying while pregnant.
• MMR =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦,𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙
𝑐𝑒𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 1 𝑦𝑟
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒
𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒
x 10,0000

CAUSE RELATED MORTALITY
• Demography is concerned only with
Diseases Motor Vehicle
Accidents, Suicide (homicide).

POPULATION PYRAMID

POPULATION PYRAMID
• It is a graphic representation
of the population of an area or
a country in terms of its
composition by age and sex at
a point in time.
• It provides a demographic
statement of the current age
and sex distribution of a
population.
• Males on the left side and
females on the right side.
• Children form the pyramid’s
base, while the elderly form the
tip.

POPULATION PYRAMID TYPES
• USES:
• Male to female ratio.
• Population changes.
• Dependency Ratio can be calculated.
Triangular:
Broad-based, Pakistan
Beehive: Broad-centered
Singapore
Rectangular: Stationary,
United Kingdom

DEPENDENCY RATIO.
• It is the ratio of population who are economically not
active to those who are economically active.
• Dependency Ratio =
𝐶ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛+𝐸𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦
𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑
x 100.
• Dependency Ratio =
𝑃𝑜𝑝.𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 15+𝑃𝑜𝑝.𝑜𝑓65𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒
𝑃𝑜𝑝 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 16−64 𝑦𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒
x 100.
• Dependency ratio of Pakistan = 66%

SEX RATIO
• The overall sex ratio all over the world except India is
simply the ratio of males to females in the population.
• It is usually expressed as the number of males per 100
females.
• Sex Ratio =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
x 100
• In India,sex ratio is female to male ratio (number of
females per 100 males)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• Moving from a high birth rate and
high death rate to a low birth rate
and a low death rate is called
“Demographic Transition.”
• First stage (High fertility &
mortality) is known as the old
balance.
• Second (Low fertility & mortality) is
a new balance.
• I Between these two is a stage of
imbalance in which there is high
fertility and low mortality.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.
I. OLD BALANCE {HF & HM}.
• In the old balance, since death has to be replaced by births, a large
number of births are required to compensate for a large number of
death.
II. NEW BALANCE {LF & LM}.
• It represents the improved condition of human efficiency and health
with few deaths. Production of agricultural and industrial
commodities is greater and the lifestyle is more comfortable.
III.IMBALANCE {LM & HF}.
• It is the natural increase stage that leads to population explosion.
• This growth is helpful for under-populated nations, which need
more manpower, expanding market, and more significant military
potential.

POPULATION MOMENTUM

POPULATION MOMENTUM
• It is defined as the ratio of the size of the
population at that new equilibrium level to the
size of the initial population.
• It is a typical consequence of the demographic
transition. Even if a high-fertility, high-growth
population experiences an immediate drop in
fertility to replacement rate, that population will
continue to grow for several decades.
• Momentum = mv (mass x velocity).
• Population Momentum = (Population x Growth
rate).
• Population momentum of Pakistan = 191 x
1.49

POPULATION MOMENTUM
• It means the more significant the
growth rate; the greater the
population and the difficulty to stop
population momentum.
• If a country’s population is reduced
by abruptly controlling a high birth
rate to replacement levels, the
population will continue to grow for
many years.

POPULATION MOMENTUM
• Example:
• If Pakistan’s fertility declines to a
replacement level, even then the
population of Pakistan will continue to
grow for 40 years.
• Total fertility rate of Pak is 3.2, which
means Pakistani women on average
produce 3 to 4 children. If out of these
4, two children are daughters; these 2
girls produce 4 children each.
• So the population has built up because
potential mothers have already been
born.

POPULATION DOUBLING TIME (PDT)
• It is an approximate time during which population of a country
will be approximately doubled.
• If population of a country is growing at 1% per year, it will
double in about 70 years.
• So we can get the population doubling time of any population by
this 70,divided by growth rate.
• Thus a population growing at 2% per year will double (70/2)
in 35 years.
• PDT = 70/Growth rate
• PDT of Pakistan = 70/1.49 = 47 years.
• PDT of World = 70/1.1 = 63 years almost.

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