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Why is audience measurement difficult in
mobile apps?

                     Anindya Datta, CEO
                        Mobilewalla
Mobilewalla
• Seattle-based, venture funded company founded and
  run by leaders in the big-data and advertising
  technology space

• Pioneering audience measurement in mobile apps

• Applying ground breaking data science techniques to
  the largest volumetric database of mobile app
  market data
Traditional audience measurement relies on
 panels!
 Instrument “Gateway Devices” (Cable Box, Browser) to record
  user behavior
 Extrapolation to wider audience!

 Panel limitations well-known                                Ireland – Total TV Universe
                                                                       4,205,000
   Not enough people on the panels

   Panels not harmonised

   Doesn’t reflect all populations &
     lifestyles                         Audience measurement panel size
                                                 2500 (0.06%!)

                                                                 *Source: Nielsen Television Audience Measurement 2012
                                                                                    RTE Television media Sales - Oct 2012
Had to throw in my favorite Extrapolation cartoon




                                              Source: xkdc.com
Panels & Popularity Persistence

 Fundamental to panel driven measurement
       Idea of popularity persistence

         Large pool     99 – 1 rule
                                      “small” set of
         of options                   popular choices


 Objects popular today  popular 30-60-90 days
 from today
   • Panel can be assumed to eventually gravitate towards
     the persistent popular set
App Popularities do not Persist
      0 day           30 day         90 day      0 day                            30 day                       90 day




  Majority of churn due to one time
special broadcasts like the Presidential
Debates, Oscar’s,17
                 Grammy’s & 13 Sporting         10                       1
    20                                                      55
                Events                          0
                                              App Popularities are highly5
                                                                         transient!

  Regular broadcast TV shows
     hardly demonstrate any                   Panels don’t work for Apps
           popularity churn Churn
Top 20 US TV 30 day Churn 90 day              Top 100           30 day Churn                 90 day Churn
 programs       15%            35%             Apps                 45%                          85%


    Top 20 US TV Progams over 90 days                    Top 100 Apps over 90 days



                                                  Source: Programs - Nielsen Television (TV) Ratings for Network Primetime Series
                                                          Apps - mobilewalla
Volatility – Ranks!
          18-24 Jun 2012   16-22 July 2012   13-19 Aug 2012      17-23 Sep 2012      15-22 Oct 2012      12-18 Nov 2012       17-23 Dec 2012
  0
50
100
150
200                                                        TV Programs
250
300
350
400
                               The Big Bang Theory         60 Minutes             Two and a Half Men            NCIS*




      0
  50
 100
 150
 200
 250
 300
 350                                                               Apps
 400
                Link The Gugl (Games)        MailBox (Overall)        Draw Something Free (Overall)             Go To Meeting (Business)
                                                                                          Source: Programs - Nielsen Television (TV) Ratings for Network Primetime Series
                                                                                                  Apps – mobilewalla; *Note: NCIS was not aired in the week of 15-22 Oct
Mobilewalla Pioneers Audience Measurement for
    Mobile Apps
                                                                          Audience data delivered in two ways
                                     Rule Based Refinement                   Given an App
    3 Step                                                                     Output indexed audience
   Approach                                                                   demographics (like Quantcast)

                                                                             Given a target demographic
                     Reference Based Estimation
                                                                               Output apps that provide
                                                                              reach into that demographic
                                                   Ground breaking big
                                                     data techniques      • Ability to cross-reference
Audience Based Clustering
                                                                            audience with popularity
                                                                          • Provide data in real-time

     Use Cases                                                   Rapid Adoption in the Mobile Ad
         ●    Campaign targeting                                            Industry
         ●    Supply enrichment in RTBs
         ●    Publisher Prospecting
In Summary
• One of the greatest impediments towards the widespread
  adoption of advertising in mobile has been the unavailability
  of reliable audience data for apps

• It turns out that audience measurement in mobile is difficult
   – The inapplicability of traditional panel based measurement techniques
     is a major reason


• Mobilewalla has invented techniques, based on ground-
  breaking big-data science, to reliably estimate app audiences
  and is powering targeted campaigns as well as supply
  enrichment at major ad technology companies

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4A’s Transformation 2013 - March 12 - Mobilewalla - Dr. Anindya Datta

  • 1. Why is audience measurement difficult in mobile apps? Anindya Datta, CEO Mobilewalla
  • 2. Mobilewalla • Seattle-based, venture funded company founded and run by leaders in the big-data and advertising technology space • Pioneering audience measurement in mobile apps • Applying ground breaking data science techniques to the largest volumetric database of mobile app market data
  • 3. Traditional audience measurement relies on panels!  Instrument “Gateway Devices” (Cable Box, Browser) to record user behavior  Extrapolation to wider audience!  Panel limitations well-known Ireland – Total TV Universe 4,205,000  Not enough people on the panels  Panels not harmonised  Doesn’t reflect all populations & lifestyles Audience measurement panel size 2500 (0.06%!) *Source: Nielsen Television Audience Measurement 2012 RTE Television media Sales - Oct 2012
  • 4. Had to throw in my favorite Extrapolation cartoon Source: xkdc.com
  • 5. Panels & Popularity Persistence Fundamental to panel driven measurement Idea of popularity persistence Large pool 99 – 1 rule “small” set of of options popular choices Objects popular today  popular 30-60-90 days from today • Panel can be assumed to eventually gravitate towards the persistent popular set
  • 6. App Popularities do not Persist 0 day 30 day 90 day 0 day 30 day 90 day Majority of churn due to one time special broadcasts like the Presidential Debates, Oscar’s,17 Grammy’s & 13 Sporting 10 1 20 55 Events 0 App Popularities are highly5 transient! Regular broadcast TV shows hardly demonstrate any Panels don’t work for Apps popularity churn Churn Top 20 US TV 30 day Churn 90 day Top 100 30 day Churn 90 day Churn programs 15% 35% Apps 45% 85% Top 20 US TV Progams over 90 days Top 100 Apps over 90 days Source: Programs - Nielsen Television (TV) Ratings for Network Primetime Series Apps - mobilewalla
  • 7. Volatility – Ranks! 18-24 Jun 2012 16-22 July 2012 13-19 Aug 2012 17-23 Sep 2012 15-22 Oct 2012 12-18 Nov 2012 17-23 Dec 2012 0 50 100 150 200 TV Programs 250 300 350 400 The Big Bang Theory 60 Minutes Two and a Half Men NCIS* 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Apps 400 Link The Gugl (Games) MailBox (Overall) Draw Something Free (Overall) Go To Meeting (Business) Source: Programs - Nielsen Television (TV) Ratings for Network Primetime Series Apps – mobilewalla; *Note: NCIS was not aired in the week of 15-22 Oct
  • 8. Mobilewalla Pioneers Audience Measurement for Mobile Apps Audience data delivered in two ways Rule Based Refinement  Given an App 3 Step  Output indexed audience Approach demographics (like Quantcast)  Given a target demographic Reference Based Estimation  Output apps that provide reach into that demographic Ground breaking big data techniques • Ability to cross-reference Audience Based Clustering audience with popularity • Provide data in real-time Use Cases Rapid Adoption in the Mobile Ad ● Campaign targeting Industry ● Supply enrichment in RTBs ● Publisher Prospecting
  • 9. In Summary • One of the greatest impediments towards the widespread adoption of advertising in mobile has been the unavailability of reliable audience data for apps • It turns out that audience measurement in mobile is difficult – The inapplicability of traditional panel based measurement techniques is a major reason • Mobilewalla has invented techniques, based on ground- breaking big-data science, to reliably estimate app audiences and is powering targeted campaigns as well as supply enrichment at major ad technology companies

Notas do Editor

  1. The Churn in the TV shows is also because of one time broadcasts like The Presidential Debate; Grammy’s, Oscars etcAdd timeline…Panels don’t work to come at the end…Add source
  2. Step 1 and Step 3 – ground break big data techniques – add!