Scenario's voor de Europese ruimtelijke planning in 2050

1. Scenarios and Vision for the European
Territory in 2050 (ET 2050)
Philippe Doucet
VRP Internationaal lezingenavond
25 June 2012 - Brussels

2. The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings

3. ESDP First Official Draft (Noordwijk, 1997):
“What needs to be done and where?”

4. “What needs to be done and where?”: no answer...
• in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig)
• in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő)
• in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion
• in the Baltic Sea Region and
Danube Region Strategies

5. But some attempts were made, for example:
Europe 2030 (Conference of
Peripheral and Maritime Areas
CPMR , 2002)

6. Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF)
“Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion”

7. Benelux Structural Outline, NWE Spatial Vision

8. All these exercises were tricky,
and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of the
EU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy.
However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, was
meant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agenda
process, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiated
policy approach.
ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”.
ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for Territorial
Development and Cohesion”.
ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future of
Europe”.

9. ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007)

10. ESPON
Project 3.2
“Roll-back
scenario”

11. ESPON 2006 Project 3.2 Balance Sheet
+ a very stimulating first attempt to communicate the
ESPON results
+ consistent scenarios, based on a synthesis of the
ESPON 2006 projects and many other sources
+ geographically differentiated picture of some possible
policy choices
- limited communication with ESPON outsiders
- no validation process with (EU) policy makers

12. ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 Project
ET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Vision
for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) »
Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating a
long-term integrated and coherent VISION for the
development of the EU territory from 2010
up to 2050.

14. ET2050 Methodology
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?)

15. ET2050 Methodology
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
 

16. ET2050 work plan
Late June 2012

17. Tasks already performed (First Interim Report)
• Analysis of Present State (16 reports)
• By Sectors (demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance)
• By Territories (9 macro-zones covering EU+NC)
• By European Policies (Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…)
• Critical Bifurcations ahead (aprox. 25)
• Definition of Key Directions (aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies)
• Comparison of Baseline Scenarios (aprox. 100 future-oriented studies)
• Foresight exercise (indicators at World/EU scale (1950-2050, 10+50 indicators)
• Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3)
• Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA)
and Integrated model (SASI)
13. Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario

18. Baseline Reference World Indicators
Overall EU role in the World 1950-2050 (Europe's share in the World)
100%
Population GDP Trade
Tourism Energy consumption CO2
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

19. Critical Bifurcation
Federalism (Superstate)
Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario
Limited Federalism
Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win)
Wellfare (in average)
Euro-crisis
Break-up
Worse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost)
1992 2012 2020 2050

20. Critical Bifurcation
Federalism (Superstate)
Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario
Limited Federalism
Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario
Wellfare (in average)
Baseline
BAU (no Reforms) / Consensus Scenario
Euro-crisis
Break-up
Worse-case Scenario (All Lost)
1992 2012 2020 2050

21. The Vision-scenarios iterative process
Scientifically-driven
The building

process of the
scenarios and the
Territorial VISION
should be cyclical
and dynamic
allowing various VISION Scenarios
key-players to take
an active part in the
development and
testing of the
VISION and
scenarios Politically-driven
Important to address key-values and policy goals at an
early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process

22. Participatoty process: involvement of various
categories of stakeholders
Proposal made in the project specifications
Step MC & DG Policy Private Scientific
Regio makers sector experts
1. Present State
2. Baseline Scenario
3. Territorial Scenarios
4. Territorial Vision
5. Mid-term Targets &
Pathways
…but this proposal has been reconsidered

23. 1st round of consultations: questionnaire
1. What key EU policy issues should deserve particular attention in the
ET2050 scenario building exercise?
2. Should the scenarios focus on the possible evolution of the
European territorial structure and EU policy-content, or also on
possible change in the area of EU governance?
3. What major trends / policy developments should be taken into
account when elaborating the ET 2050 scenarios? Do you see some
possible course of events that could emerge in the long run and
whose importance is currently underestimated or simply ignored?
4. What kind of possible EU paradigms should guide the elaboration of
the scenarios and the Territorial Vision? What ideal European
territory would you dream of for the 2050 time horizon?
5. What recommendations would you like to express concerning the
ET2050 scenario and Territorial Vision elaboration process?

24. Consultation outcome
1. Many stimulating views, including some lateral thinking
(brainstorming was encouraged)
2. Emphasis on various recurrent topics: demography (as
“heavy trend”), energy, climate change, etc.
3. Vision Geographic scope: EU 27 too narrow. Extend to
Euromed (rest of Europe + Mediterranean countries)
4. EU2020 objectives (sustainable, inclusive and smart
growth) regarded as key goals, but also territorial
integration
5. Emphasis on the evolution of EU policy making and
governance, including policy integration
6. More unusual paradigms were put forward more than
once: happiness, beautiful Europe, etc.

25. ET2050 Consortium
MCRIT, LP POLIMI
Andreu Ulied Roberto Camagni
ESPON CU Oriol Biosca Roberta Capello
Rafael Rodrigo Ugo Fratesi
Sara Ferrara IOM
TERSYN
Marjan van Herwijnen (Jacques Robert) Marek Kupiszewski
Dorota Kupiszewska
Sounding Board IGEAT
Philippe Doucet RIKS
Moritz Lennert Jaspers de Vliet
Patrick Salez Valérie Biot Hedwig van Delden
Karl Peter Schon Jean-Michel Decroly
Nordregio
RKK Alexandre Dubois
Ivan Illes
Katalin Süle University of Thessaly (UTH)
Harry Coccosis
S&W
Michael Wegener WSE
Klaus Spiekermann Jacek Szlachta
ISIS
Carlo Sessa
ERSILIA
Jaume Jorba

26. Please visit: www.et2050.eu
Thank you for your attention!