Managing future demand: A social productivity approach
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Presentation on managing demand for public services. By Henry Kippin for a Local Government Association seminar on 'Understanding and Managing Demand'. http://www.local.gov.uk/web/guest/events/-/journal_content/56/10171/3799820/EVENT-TEMPLATE
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Managing future demand: A social productivity approach
- 1. Managing future demand a social productivity approach henry@2020psh.org
- 2. About the 2020 Public Services Hub
- 3. The long term agenda Demographic Change – huge resource and delivery challenges. Economic Rebalancing – end of traditional spending & distributional models? Changing Societies – digital, mobile & demanding, but also unequal.
- 4. How are these trends already affecting people? 1. Living Standards in Tough Times – wage stagnation, welfare reform, in- work poverty, impact of rising costs and economic uncertainty – how can local authorities respond in this context? 2. Social Support – shifting models of care, complex needs, new types of (non-traditional) social support – how can local public services remain relevant to people’s lives? 3. Austerity Decade – prospect of low growth & spending, need for creative responses and new approaches to delivery & productivity – can local authorities bring people with them and share the solutions?
- 5. Social Productivity: • Value in public services is created at the interface between citizen, service and society. Public services are a relationship! • Future public services must create sustainable systems that build social capacity, foster community resilience and work with the grain of people‟s lives. • In a context of low-to-no-growth, we need to rethink how we build economic and socially productive places.
- 6. Social productivity in practice • With communities – connected communities, changemakers, whole recovery & whole education • With local govt – community leadership, city deals, public service reform & transition institute • With business – community footprint, shared spaces & collaborative „shared value‟ practice
- 7. • Managing demand is now a massive priority for public services. • But as the shape of demand changes, we need new approaches and new tools. • What should they be? To begin, here are five principles….
- 8. Principles of demand management Work with the grain Use new Get beyond technology the services Demand management Create the Link public right local services and incentives growth
- 9. 1. Understand how to work with the grain #1 RSA finding: “we don‟t know!” #2 “social support & community is not always what we think it is…” #3: “everything is linked…”
- 10. 2. Get beyond the services • What makes a meaningful difference to peoples lives? • How can local authorities use their socio-economic clout? • Not just about behaviour change, but building capacity and supporting citizens
- 11. 3. Public Services and Growth: two sides of the same coin • Growth and demand management as interdependent • Future city deals embracing public sector reform & localisation of welfare • Developing the „social‟ role of business & the growth potential of public services
- 12. 4. Create the right local incentives • Community leadership as a driver of demand management • Negotiated local autonomy – drawing on recent initiatives • Creating a „shallow end‟ and a sense of togetherness
- 13. 5. Use new technology • New channels of „conversation‟ with citizens • Potential of analytics, data integration & connected services • Managing demand through better service design
- 14. Questions for discussion • Do we have the right evidence base or metrics for future demand management? • Can we start doing these things systematically at a time of austerity? • Where are the gains to be made „at scale‟?
Notas do Editor
- Recent IMPOWER consultancy report:Almost all executives (98%) believe they can reduce demand by changing behaviour. Almost three quarters (72%) believe that managing demand for services and changing citizen behaviours offer significant potential to offset declining budgets. BUT - A mere fifth (22%) of senior executives describe community trust in their authority as high – compared with 40% a year ago and 45% three years ago.
- Part of RSA- founded 1754; arts, commerce, social change – enlightenment organisation- you judge? 2020 Hub- legacy of a cross-party commission on public services. Chaired by Sir Andrew FosterLong term challenges for PS – think about a new settlement aligned – progressive, sustainable (dem, soc, env, prod – pre crisis)Reported in 2010 – beyond beveridge – strong commitment to public services, but different kind- big society, but with the state?!
- Impact of Demographic Change – the OBR estimates that public spending (other than on debt interest repayments) will rise 5 percentage points of GDP over the next 50 years as a result of demographic change. Longevity brings with it a potential rise in chronic illness, increasing prevalence of dementia, and a shift in patterns of care (and the places in which people are cared for..)Low-to-no-Growth – the OECD forecasts that global growth will stabilise at around 3%p.a. over the next 50 years – but most of that growth will come from the developing world. We are already moving beyond the idea that steady growth with fund public spending and an increasing set of citizen service entitlements. A long term context of L-T-N growth means that managing demand will be as much about generating new forms of economic resilience as changing patterns of social need. Changing Societies – more mobile phones than people globally. Growth of digital. Peter TG – we are increasingly ‘querrulous’ citizens – less deferential and more demanding (e.g. health reforms- choice- based on this)But also increasingly UNEQUAL – econ, geog, ethnic often overlay- mutually reinforcingONS- wage inequality increased again in 2012North south divide economically- but also in terms of measures like use of antidepressants (not just NUFC)SPIKY demand challenges…
- Living Standards in Tough Times Resolution foundation – people already on low-mid incomes will be poorer in 2020 than todayWelfare reform – IFS estimates deeply uncertain – but worrying – impact. Means demand could well rise in areas where L.A.’s don’t have it in their gift to respond directly2. Social SupportVictor Adebowale (TP)- ‘ tomorrow’s elderly population won’t look like todays’ – are we ready? Do we have the tools to manage demand in this context? Collaborate..3. AusterityProspect of low-to-no-growth. Already forcing re-eval of assets (cf Newcastle). How can use strategic role of LA to help create new forms of growth that can help manage demand upstream
- How is the RSA mobilising this in practice? With communities– connected comms, changemakers, whole recovery, whole education – all programmes looking at ways we can better understand people and how this can be plugged into service design [new cross, blackburn, tipton, RSA academies]With local govt– comm leadership, city deals, PS reform, transition institute – how strong relationships across PS and the sectors can improve the social and economic potential of places [sunderland, oldham, peterborough, wiltshire]With business – community footprint, shared spaces & collaboration/shared value – what would it take to broaden our idea of a public service and engage the role of business beyond delivery?
- So why relevant to today? Alternative? (2 futures?) – to retreat to statutory provision and hope for the best….
- UNDERSTAND HOW TO WORK WITH THE GRAINThis is about askingDo you know enough about the people that you serve outside of their responses to service provision? Do we know how to work with the grain of their lives and support their aspirations (an essential part of making behaviour change stick)Do we really understand communities, and what generates pride, resilience and social capital? We would probably answer NO to these questions , in most cases. RSA Connected Communities – new cross, bristol, elsewhereSocial network analysis – people’s connections, who they know, where they go, whether they know someone with any perceived influence.Maps- highly complex – hub is not public agencies, but the PUB, Sainsbury’s – and the key connectors are the pub landlord and the postman. How can we leverage these connectors and networks? Outside of trad service delivery patterns – but how can we ‘connect’ elected members, for exampleTo effectively manage demand, we need to work with the grain of peoples lives. (especially for hard to reach groups – public health, men & pub may not go together, but…). E.g. of good gym in Southwark. Ask- how can you blend this insight with other forms of evidence- acorn , mosaic etc
- GET BEYOND THE SERVICESThis is about taking the insight we have just spoken about, and using it to think about service design, demand reduction and the changing role of the council.How are people’s lives changing, and what types of support are valuable to them? Means thinking not only about what the council can provide, but about what it can leverage via partnership, and how it can use its clout to play a campaigning or advocacy role outside of traditional areasThis is key part of managing demand upstream- financial fragility (debt repayments, loan sharking), food and energy costs (collective energy bargaining), access to finance (mortgage brokerage). Helping people to manage their lives before the shit hits the fan. Even more important in the context of welfare reform!Oldham – using cooperative agenda to push on these issues. Camden- approach to addressing inequality based on partnership and a new evidence base. Being a living wage employer, and building a local supply chain are also key elements. Shared Lives Plus – matching volunteers with adults with care needs- have saved average annual 13k per match. Barry Quirk (collaborate institute) - services to the public, not public services. Need a re-alignment around the ways people live now and tomorrow – Thinking the unthinkable- organised, situated… start with lives, not services
- Fiscal Fallout (SMF & RSA)- arguing that PSR and growth strategy should be 2 sides of same coin. Smart cities- embodying pulling together of social, public, private goals (amsterdam, bristol, sunderland. Manchester (VoP) in UK…)Same is true of demand management and local growth. Manchester (econ strat & whole place CB’s). Jobs and growth a key part of managing demand upstream and starting to see it as an opportunity. City Deal infrastructure as a big opportunity- use this ethos to create ‘deals’ that link skills, transport & jobs with local flexibility on welfare (WP). LManaging for productivity- the TI is exploring ways to create new social business from the public sector – maintaining SV ethos. The Private SectorSignificant RSA work – B&Q, Asda, NHBC – companies looking to understand their community footprint- how they can sustain their client base and at the same time contribute to public goals (perhaps through triage services, shared services, local ‘Cards’ – Westminster & private sector gyms/public health good example).
- Incentives and leadership are key. Community leadership massively important in managing demand. But new types of conversation (& new roles for EM’s) need new forms of training, input & supportCreating a shallow end – low level, tech, conversations, mentoring, capacity building - & aligning incentives of council staff around this (Sunderland interesting in this sense)Governance needs to be aligned – Sunderland, Peterborough, Oldham, Wiltshire – strategies to manage demand have been led through decentralising- shifting people & resources out of town hall- districts & neighbourhoods- responsive local servicesWe have proposed negotiated autonomy – variable speed devolution based on local ‘deals’ (that might be partly based on reducing demand)LeadershipOaklahoma- embodying behaviour change by personally leading the anti-obesity driveJoe Simpson point – using political intuition to persuade!Q- what is the balance between town hall and neighbourhood that can get this right
- New TechnologyAlready being used – twitter, social media to foster 2 way communications (the ‘conversation’). Obama (& Boris) online townhalls an example of how this can be creatively done. Service design – gov.uk explicitly designed to make info easier to get and to manage down demand – nr 50% of calls – cant navigate websiteAt far end of the scale – using analytics, integrated functionality to manage demand and responsiveness at city/place levelNYC 311 – rapid response, single point- call centre with tech back office- reduced duplication, cut costs, high satisfaction - & reduction in calls/demand- reversing 34 year trendChicago digital- attempt by Rahm Emmanuel to do the sameCrime mapping & hotspot policing – show potential of GPS/online mappingThings we can do now, but also looking ahead.
- Five principles to begin. Pose more questions than answers, but good place to start. To reiterate central arguement: Managing future demand is about thinking outside of today’s services – going back to first principles – asking who are the people, and what can we do to enable them to play a full part in society. Reducing demand for social services is a key byproduct of this. In the short term, some key questions (maybe drawing on a.m.)- & from your experience.