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                      Global entertainment
                      and media outlook
                      2012–2016

                      Industry overview
13th annual edition

June 2012
Global entertainment
                      and media outlook
                      2012–2016
                      Industry overview




13th annual edition   Each year, PwC’s global team of entertainment and media experts
                      generates unbiased, in-depth forecasts for 13 industry segments.
June 2012
                      Incorporating data from 4 principal regions comprising 48
                      countries and areas around the world, Global entertainment and
                      media outlook: 2012–2016 combines deep knowledge of local
                      markets with a truly global perspective—a powerful tool for
                      understanding critical business issues.

                      To learn more about the challenges and opportunities ahead for the
                      entertainment and media industry, please visit pwc.com/e&m
Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016


Prepared and edited by:
PwC firms help organizations and individuals
                                                           Use of Outlook data                               Permission to cite
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                                                           legal, or other competent advisers. Before
www.pwc.com                                                                                                  Radhika Nanda at radhika.nanda@uk.pwc.com
                                                           making any decision or taking any action, you
                                                                                                             outlining the excerpts you wish to use, along
                                                           should consult a professional adviser who has
                                                                                                             with a draft copy of the full report that the
Authored by:                                               been provided with all pertinent facts relevant
                                                                                                             excerpts will appear in. Provision of this
                                                           to your particular situation.
Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global                                                        information is necessary for every citation
research and analysis of the media, entertainment,         The information is provided as is, with no        request to enable PwC to assess the context in
and telecommunications industries.                         assurance or guarantee of completeness,           which the excerpts are being presented.
www.wilkofskygruen.com                                     accuracy, or timeliness of the information
                                                                                                             Without limiting the foregoing,
                                                           and without warranty of any kind, express
                                                                                                             excerpts from the publication may
                                                           or implied, including but not limited to
Outlook editorial board:                                   warranties of performance, merchantability,       be used only for background market
                                                                                                             illustration, should not be the sole
For the PwC Entertainment &                                and fitness for a particular purpose.
                                                                                                             source of 2012-2016 information,
Media Practice:                                            Outlook content must not be excerpted, used,      and must not form the majority of
                                                           or presented in any portion that would render     sourced information.
Deborah Bothun, Principal
                                                           it misleading in any manner or that fails to
James DePonte, Partner
                                                           provide sufficient context.
Sean DeWinter, Partner
Marcel Fenez, Global Leader, Entertainment & Media
Nick George, Partner
Stefanie Kane, Partner                                  © 2012 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member
Alexandra Maclean, Global E&M Marketing Manager         firms, each of which is also a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further
Radhika Nanda, Global E&M Marketing Executive           details. AT-12-0120
Pauline Orchard, Global E&M Marketing Leader
Kenneth Sharkey, Partner                                Global entertainment and media outlook is a trademark owned by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Phil Stokes, Partner
                                                        ISBN 978-1-931684-27-9
Many other professionals from the PwC
                                                        Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016, Industry overview
Entertainment & Media Practice reviewed
and added local expertise to this publication.          ISBN 978-1-931684-25-5
                                                        Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
For Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc.:
David Wilkofsky, Partner
Arthur Gruen, Partner
Norman D. Eisenberg, Vice President




2    PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Contents: Industry overview


Letter from Global Leader, Entertainment & Media .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  4
PwC Entertainment & Media Practice—country contacts  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  5

Scope and methodology
Scope .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  8
Methodology .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  9

Viewpoint
Preface and economic context .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 18
The end of the digital beginning:
E&M companies reshape and
retool for life in the new normal .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 23

Summaries by segment and region
Global industry summary .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 48
Global market by segment  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 57
Global market by region .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 63

Index of tables and charts .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 91




                                                                            This Industry Overview contains a top-line summary of industry data, along with PwC’s
                                                                            viewpoint about industry trends. It does not approach the depth or granularity of the
                                                                            full Outlook content, which provides more than 100,000 data points and in-depth
                                                                            commentary for the 13 segments and 48 countries and areas covered.




                                                                                          For access to full data sets and commentary, visit the online
                                                                                          Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook




	                                                                                                                                                                                 Industry overview   3
Letter from Global Leader, Entertainment & Media




                                          June 2012




                                          To our clients and friends both in and beyond the entertainment and media industry:



                                          Welcome to the 13th annual edition of PwC’s Global entertainment and media outlook, covering the forecast period 2012–2016. Our
                                          forecasts and analyses for this edition focus on 13 major entertainment and media (E&M) industry segments. To reflect the ever-changing
                                          nature of the industry, as well as the continuing growth of digital revenue streams, we continue seeking out new data sources and have
                                          again increased the depth of data across the 48 countries and areas covered in the Outlook. Given those increases in the depth and breadth
                                          of our content, you will now find certain of the data sets in the online Outlook only. I encourage you to get to know the online edition of the
                                          Outlook, which offers significant additional functionality and flexibility for the user of the underlying data and which includes additional
                                          territory-specific content.

                                          During 2011, both advertising spending and, to a lesser extent, consumer/end-user spending grew as overall economic activity and demand
                                          for high-quality content increased. Proliferation in the usage of smart mobile devices has enabled the convenience of consumption of
                                          content anywhere and anytime to become a reality.

                                          In the near term, economic prospects are mixed but should improve and lead to growth in the sector. However, we anticipate that overall
                                          growth in the E&M industry will lag nominal GDP growth due to an ongoing consumption shift to lower-priced digital distribution.
                                          Although rates of growth in China and India show some signs of moderating, those markets—as well as other fast-growing markets in Asia
                                          and Latin America—are the engines of global growth.

                                          The initial uncertainty of digital migration is giving way to a sharper focus on identifying and executing the business models, organizational
                                          structures, and skill sets that will deliver rising future value in the changed environment. Put simply, digital is now established as the new
                                          normal. The relative availability and affordability of fixed and mobile broadband in different markets set the pace of consumer adoption of
                                          digital. And as a consequence, some markets will continue to see differing growth patterns.

                                          Understanding how consumer behavior is changing and interpreting the mass of data that is being gathered about consumer preferences
                                          are becoming core skills and are providing the basis for monetization either directly or through collaboration and partnering with others.
                                          This is just one example of the areas where sources of value are changing.

                                          All of us at PwC continue to stay on top of trends and developments that may impact your business now and in the future, and we look
                                          forward to further sharing our thoughts with you. We appreciate your feedback and ask that you in turn continue telling us what we can do
                                          to make the Outlook more useful to you. For additional clarification on any matters included in the Outlook or if we can be of service to your
                                          business in any way, either contact one of the PwC E&M professionals listed on pages 5 and 6 or visit our Web site (www.pwc.com/e&m) for
                                          details of the contact in your territory.

                                          Finally, we thank you for your support and wish you an exciting and rewarding year ahead.



                                          Sincerely,




                                                                   Marcel Fenez
                                                                   Global Leader
                                                                   Entertainment & Media




              4       PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
PwC Entertainment & Media Practice—country contacts


Global                                                   Marcel Fenez                                             marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com


North America
Canada                                                   Tracey Jennings                                          tracey.l.jennings@ca.pwc.com
United States                                            Kenneth Sharkey                                          kenneth.j.sharkey@us.pwc.com


EMEA
Western Europe
Austria                                                  Bernd Hoffman                                            bernd.hoffman@at.pwc.com
Belgium                                                  Eddy Dams                                                eddy.dams@be.pwc.com
Denmark                                                  John Gabriel Sørensen                                    john.gabriel.sorensen@dk.pwc.com
Finland                                                  Harri Valkonen                                           harri.valkonen@fi.pwc.com
France                                                   Matthieu Aubusson de Cavarlay                            matthieu.aubusson@fr.pwc.com
Germany                                                  Werner Ballhaus                                          werner.ballhaus@de.pwc.com
Greece                                                   Dinos Michalatos                                         dinos.michalatos@gr.pwc.com
Ireland                                                  Paul O’Connor                                            paul.w.oconnor@ie.pwc.com
Italy                                                    Andrea Samaja                                            andrea.samaja@it.pwc.com
Netherlands                                              Ennel van Eeden                                          ennel.van.eeden@nl.pwc.com
Norway                                                   Eivind Nilsen                                            eivind.nilsen@no.pwc.com
Portugal                                                 José Vitorino                                            jose.vitorino@pt.pwc.com
Spain                                                    Virginia Arce                                            virginia.arce@es.pwc.com
Sweden                                                   Nicklas Kullberg                                         nicklas.kullberg@se.pwc.com
Switzerland                                              Patrick Balkanyi                                         patrick.balkanyi@ch.pwc.com
United Kingdom                                           Phil Stokes                                              phil.stokes@uk.pwc.com

Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic                                           Jiri Moser                                               jiri.moser@cz.pwc.com
Hungary                                                  Manfred Krawietz                                         manfred.h.krawietz@hu.pwc.com
Poland                                                   Adam Krason                                              adam.krason@pl.pwc.com
Romania                                                  John Webster                                             john.webster@ro.pwc.com
Russia                                                   Natalia Yakovleva                                        natalia.yakovleva@ru.pwc.com
Turkey                                                   Murat Colakoglu                                          murat.colakoglu@tr.pwc.com

Middle East/Africa
Israel                                                   Eran Iohan                                               eran.iohan@il.pwc.com
Middle East/North Africa   †
                                                         Fouad Alaeddin                                           fouad.alaeddin@jo.pwc.com
South Africa                                             Vicky Myburgh                                            vicky.myburgh@za.pwc.com


†Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.




	                                                                                                                                              Industry overview   5
Asia Pacific
Australia                                    David Wiadrowski                   david.wiadrowski@au.pwc.com
China                                        Marcel Fenez                       marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com
Hong Kong                                    Marcel Fenez                       marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com
India                                        Timmy Kandhari                     timmy.s.kandhari@in.pwc.com
Indonesia                                    Chrisna Wardhana                   chrisna.wardhana@id.pwc.com
Japan                                        Akihiko Nakamura                   akihiko.nakamura@jp.pwc.com
Korea                                        Hum-Seok Park                      hum-seok.park@kr.pwc.com
Malaysia                                     Neil Proudlove                     neil.proudlove@my.pwc.com
New Zealand                                  Keren Blakey                       keren.blakey@nz.pwc.com
Pakistan                                     Sohail Hasan                       sohail.hasan@pk.pwc.com
Philippines                                  Mary Jade T. Roxas                 jade.roxas@ph.pwc.com
Singapore                                    Charlotte Hsu                      charlotte.hsu@sg.pwc.com
Taiwan                                       Han Wu                             han.wu@tw.pwc.com
Thailand                                     Kajornkiet Aroonpirodkul           kajornkiet.aroonpirodkul@th.pwc.com
Vietnam                                      Ian Lydall                         ian.lydall@vn.pwc.com


Latin America
Argentina                                    Jesús Estevéz                      jesus.estevez@ar.pwc.com
Brazil                                       Estela Vieira                      estela.vieira@br.pwc.com
Chile                                        Rafael Ruano                       rafael.ruano@cl.pwc.com
Colombia                                     Diego Henao                        diego.henao@co.pwc.com
Mexico                                       Luis Roberto Martínez del Barrio   luis.roberto.martinez@mx.pwc.com
Venezuela                                    Estela Vieira                      estela.vieira@br.pwc.com




6       PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Scope and methodology



          Scope	8

          Methodology	9
Scope


                                                        The Outlook reflects the collective wisdom of our large team of professionals
                                                        who work with entertainment and media companies around the world. It is a
                                                        unique resource for the industry, offering a five-year outlook for global consumer
                                                        spending and advertising revenues, along with insights into the technology,
                                                        government, political, and business trends driving those forecasts.


New additions to the 2012                               home distribution through pay TV                        Categories covered
Outlook                                                 providers and also for over-the-top
                                                        content accessed via the Internet.                      •	 Internet access spending:
There are a number of data breakouts                                                                               wired and mobile
                                                        Because video-on-demand and pay-per-
included in this year’s Outlook that
                                                        view are major components of electronic                 •	 Internet advertising:
were not provided in the past. We have
                                                        home video distribution, we are now                        wired and mobile
added trade shows to the “Business-
                                                        including those revenue streams in
to-Business” chapter, and concerts and                                                                          •	 Television subscriptions
                                                        “Filmed Entertainment.” And because
music festivals to the “Recorded Music”                                                                            and license fees
                                                        “Television Subscriptions and License
chapter, which we renamed “Music.”
                                                        Fees” focuses principally on distribution,              •	 Television advertising
Also in “Music,” we are providing data
                                                        we shifted to “Filmed Entertainment”
for unit sales of both physical and                                                                             •	 Music
                                                        video-on-demand and pay-per-view to
digital recorded music, available in the
                                                        reflect payments for content.                           •	 Filmed entertainment
online edition. In “Consumer Magazine
Publishing,” we are providing per-issue                                                                         •	 Video games
unit sales for print circulation and
paid unit sales for digital circulation,                                                                        •	 Radio
also available in the online edition.                                                                           •	 Out-of-home advertising
In “Filmed Entertainment,” we are
providing revenue data for electronic                                                                           •	 Consumer magazine publishing
                                                                                                                •	 Newspaper publishing
                                                                                                                •	 Consumer and educational
                                                                                                                   book  publishing
                                                                                                                •	 Business-to-business

Regions/countries covered
North America                       EMEA                                                                     Asia Pacific                      Latin America
Canada                              Western Europe       Central and Eastern Europe                          Australia                         Argentina
United States                       Austria              Czech Republic                                      China                             Brazil
                                    Belgium              Hungary                                             Hong Kong                         Chile
                                    Denmark              Poland                                              India                             Colombia
                                    Finland              Romania                                             Indonesia                         Mexico
                                    France               Russia                                              Japan                             Venezuela
                                    Germany              Turkey                                              Malaysia
                                    Greece                                                                   New Zealand
                                    Ireland              Middle East/Africa                                  Pakistan
                                    Italy                Israel                                              Philippines
                                    Netherlands          Middle East/North Africa (MENA)†                    Singapore
                                    Norway               South Africa                                        South Korea
                                    Portugal                                                                 Taiwan
                                    Spain                                                                    Thailand
                                    Sweden                                                                   Vietnam
                                    Switzerland
                                    United Kingdom

†Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.




8	      PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Methodology


How we derive the data                       Forecast information                                        How we report the data
                                             Recent trends in industry performance                       in each chapter
Historical information                       are analyzed, and the factors underlying                    Segment spending consists of
                                             those trends are identified.                                advertising and end-user spending
Historical information is obtained
                                             The factors considered are economic,                        related directly to entertainment
principally from confidential and
                                             demographic, technological,                                 and media content. Each chapter
proprietary sources. In instances when
                                             institutional, behavioral, and                              introduction begins with a definition of
third-party sources are consulted and
                                             competitive, as well as certain other                       the spending streams that are included
their information is used directly—
                                             drivers that may affect each of the                         in that segment. We do not include
from such sources as government
                                             entertainment and media markets.                            spending on hardware or on services
agencies, trade associations, or related
                                                                                                         that may be needed to access content.
entities that seek to have their data        Models are then developed to quantify
disseminated in the public domain—           the impact of each factor on industry                       End-user spending is counted at the
the sources of such information are          spending. Next, a forecast scenario for                     consumer or end-user level, not at the
explicitly cited. In instances when the      each causative factor is created, and                       wholesale level, and includes retail
information is used indirectly, as part of   the contribution of each factor on a                        markups when applicable.
the calculus for the historical data, the    prospective basis is identified.                            Advertising spending is measured net
sources are proprietary.
                                             Those proprietary mathematical models                       of agency commissions in all territories
Each year, we look not only at data for      and analytic algorithms are applied in                      except the United States and Russia,
the most recent year but also at the         the process to provide an initial array                     where gross advertising is measured to
historical data to determine whether         of prospective values. Our professional                     be consistent with the way advertising
there have been any revisions and            expertise and institutional knowledge                       is generally reported.
whether new sources have emerged             are then brought to bear in a review and                    In addition to annual-spending figures,
that provide a more complete or more         adjustment of those values if required.                     we also present data that are measured
accurate picture of the market. In some      The entire process is then examined for                     at a single point in time, such as TV
cases, that exercise leads us to revise      internal consistency and transparency                       subscriptions, Internet subscriptions,
historical spending levels and growth        vis-à-vis prevailing industry wisdom.                       mobile subscriptions, and newspaper
trends from one edition to the next.
                                             Forecasts for 2012–2016 are also                            unit circulation. In those instances,
                                             based on analysis of the dynamics of                        we show annual averages rather than
                                             each segment in each region and on                          year-end totals because annual averages
                                             factors that affect those dynamics. We                      more accurately connect the impact of
                                             provide compound annual growth rates                        these figures to annual spending.
                                             (CAGRs) that cover the 2012–2016
                                             forecast period. In the calculation of                      Inflation
                                             CAGRs, 2011 is the beginning year, with
                                             five growth years during the forecast                       Across all chapters, figures are reported
                                             period: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015,                             in nominal terms reflecting actual
                                             and 2016. The end year is 2016. The                         spending transactions and therefore
                                             formula is:                                                 include the effects of inflation.

                                             CAGR = 100 * [(Value in 2016/Value
                                             in 2011)1/5 – 1]



                                              Key to symbols used in the tables and charts
                                              p = preliminary
                                              NA = not available
                                              — = no spending that year

                                              Totals in tables and charts may not total arithmetically due to rounding.




	                                                                                                          Industry overview | Methodology	9
Exchange rates                                  are not distorted by fluctuations in
                                                international exchange rates.
All figures are presented in US dollars
by using the average 2011 exchange              The exchange rates used for the
rate held constant for each historical          individual countries in each region are
year and forecast year. This means              outlined in the following tables.
the figures reflect industry trends and


Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average)                                 Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average)

North America                     Currency           Exchange rate    EMEA                                     Currency             Exchange rate
United States                         Dollar                 1.0000   Western Europe
Canada                                Dollar                 0.9888   Austria                                        Euro                     0.7188
                                                                      Belgium                                        Euro                     0.7188

Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average)                                 Denmark                                       Krone                     5.3552
                                                                      Finland                                        Euro                     0.7188
Asia Pacific                      Currency           Exchange rate    France                                         Euro                     0.7188
Australia                             Dollar                 0.9687   Germany                                        Euro                     0.7188
China                        Yuan (renminbi)                 6.4544   Greece                                         Euro                     0.7188
Hong Kong                             Dollar                 7.7839   Ireland                                        Euro                     0.7188
India                                 Rupee                 46.8466   Italy                                          Euro                     0.7188
Indonesia                            Rupiah              8,779.0000   Netherlands                                    Euro                     0.7188
Japan                                    Yen                79.7000   Norway                                       Kroner                     5.6008
Malaysia                             Ringgit                 3.0528   Portugal                                       Euro                     0.7188
New Zealand                           Dollar                 1.2629   Spain                                          Euro                     0.7188
Pakistan                              Rupee                 85.6576   Sweden                                        Krona                     6.4873
Philippines                            Peso                 43.1844   Switzerland                                   Franc                     0.8866
Singapore                             Dollar                 1.2567   United Kingdom                      Pound sterling                      0.6235
South Korea                             Won              1,105.7300   Central and Eastern Europe
Taiwan                                Dollar                29.2632   Czech Republic                              Koruna                     17.6870
Thailand                                Baht                30.4944   Hungary                                       Forint                 200.6790
Vietnam                                Dong             20,453.6000   Poland                                         Zloty                    2.9585
                                                                      Romania                                     New lei                     3.0446

Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average)                                 Russia                                        Ruble                    29.3303
                                                                      Turkey                                     New lira                     1.6774
Latin America                     Currency           Exchange rate    Middle East/Africa
Argentina                              Peso                  4.1213   Israel                                 New shekel                       3.5603
Brazil                                  Real                 1.6698   Middle East/North
Chile                                  Peso                481.5800   Africa (MENA)†                            US dollar                     1.0000

Colombia                               Peso              1,827.4900   South Africa                                  Rand                      7.2313

Mexico                                 Peso                 12.4183   †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco,
                                                                      Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
Venezuela                      Bolivar fuerte                4.2897   Figures are estimated in US dollars.	



10	      PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Because all figures are shown as actual   and media spending. The following
spending, with the effects of inflation   tables show historical and projected
included, nominal GDP growth has an       growth rates for nominal GDP for the
important influence on entertainment      individual countries in each region.



Nominal GDP growth by country in North America (%)
                                                                                                                     2012–16
North America            2007     2008     2009     2010    2011p      2012      2013       2014    2015     2016      CAGR
United States             4.9       2.2    –1.7       3.8      4.5      4.0       4.4        5.1      5.2      5.1       4.8
Canada                    6.4       4.6    –4.7       4.9      5.0      4.1       4.3        4.7      4.5      4.4       4.4
Total                     5.1       2.4    –2.0       3.9      4.6      4.0       4.4        5.1      5.1      5.0       4.7




                                          View data in your local currency. Visit the online Outlook
                                          at www.pwc.com/outlook




	                                                                                       Industry overview | Methodology	11
Nominal GDP growth by country in EMEA (%)
                                                                                                                                                      2012–16
EMEA                            2007         2008         2009        2010        2011p         2012         2013        2014         2015     2016     CAGR
Western Europe
Austria                           5.8          4.1         –3.1          3.5         6.0          3.0          2.9          3.4         3.5     3.8       3.3
Belgium                           5.3          2.9         –1.6          3.9         5.4          1.7          2.7          3.0         3.2     3.5       2.8
Denmark                           3.9          2.7         –4.9          4.4         4.0          2.8          4.0          4.2         4.5     4.3       3.9
Finland                           8.5          2.8         –7.3          4.4         6.2          3.6          4.4          4.6         4.8     5.0       4.5
France                            4.9          2.7         –2.0          2.0         3.9          1.4          2.6          3.0         2.9     3.5       2.7
Germany                           4.6          2.0         –3.4          4.7         4.9          3.7          4.0          3.9         3.5     2.7       3.6
Greece                            7.5          4.3         –0.8        –2.0         –2.7         –3.6         –0.4          0.6         1.6     2.7       0.2
Ireland                           6.8         –5.0       –11.3         –3.6          2.0          1.3          2.2          2.6         3.2     3.5       2.6
Italy                             4.0          1.4         –3.0          2.3         3.3         –0.6          0.9          2.1         2.8     3.1       1.6
Netherlands                       5.3          4.8         –4.3          3.1         4.1          2.9          3.4          3.7         3.0     2.5       3.1
Norway                            5.2         10.8         –5.4          5.2         3.4          4.0          4.3          4.6         4.8     5.1       4.5
Portugal                          5.3          1.9         –2.3          2.7         1.1         –2.1          0.4          1.2         1.7     2.6       0.7
Spain                             7.1          3.2         –3.1          1.8         3.7          2.1          2.2          2.3         3.1     3.8       2.7
Sweden                            6.2          2.5         –3.6          6.9         7.2          2.9          3.5          4.4         4.2     4.3       3.8
Switzerland                       6.2          4.4         –1.6          2.0         2.5          0.7          2.9          3.1         2.9     3.4       2.6
United Kingdom                    5.8          2.9         –3.5          4.4         5.8          3.5          4.2          4.2         4.5     4.4       4.2
Western Europe total              5.3          2.7         –3.3          3.2         4.3          2.1          3.0          3.3         3.4     3.5       3.1
Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic                    9.7          4.3         –1.7          1.2         4.1          3.7          4.5          4.8         5.7     5.2       4.8
Hungary                           6.7          5.7         –2.6          4.1         5.6          5.1          4.6          5.1         5.8     6.3       5.4
Poland                           11.0          8.4          5.3          5.1         8.0          5.2          5.8          5.9         6.2     6.1       5.8
Romania                          39.1         19.7       –20.1         –1.0          7.8          5.0          5.6          7.0         7.1     7.0       6.3
Russia                           22.0         27.0         –5.7        11.1         12.7          9.9        10.1         10.7         10.4     9.8      10.2
Turkey                           11.2         12.7          0.2        18.3         12.9         10.2          8.7          9.0         8.7     9.1       9.1
Central and Eastern
Europe total                     16.9         17.7         –3.4        10.1         11.0          8.5          8.4          8.9         8.9     8.7       8.7
Middle East/Africa
Israel                            6.0          5.2          5.9          5.8         8.4          5.3          5.8          5.8         6.0     5.9       5.7
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)†                   14.7         22.0       –11.1         10.4         11.5          9.2          9.5          9.7        10.0     9.8       9.6
South Africa                     14.1         13.2          6.1          8.8         8.7         11.6          9.2          9.0         9.2     9.3       9.7
Middle East/
Africa total                     13.4         18.2         –6.1          9.5        10.5          9.2          9.0          9.1         9.4     9.3       9.2
EMEA total                        7.2          5.8         –3.5          4.7         5.8          3.7          4.4          4.8         5.0     5.0       4.6

†Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.




12	       PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Nominal GDP growth by country in Asia Pacific (%)
                                                                                                              2012–16
Asia Pacific          2007     2008     2009        2010   2011p   2012   2013       2014    2015     2016      CAGR
Australia               9.2      9.1      0.6        5.5     4.7    6.2    6.2        6.1      5.7      6.0       6.0
China                  19.6     18.1      8.6       16.7    14.9   12.3   12.5       12.8     12.6     12.7      12.6
Hong Kong               9.6      3.8     –3.3        7.8    11.8    8.9    8.4        7.6      8.0      8.3       8.2
India                  16.1     12.0     17.3       20.3    16.4   14.2   13.8       14.0     13.8     12.7      13.7
Indonesia              18.3     25.3     13.2       14.6    12.5   13.2   12.5       12.7     13.0     13.2      12.9
Japan                   1.6     –2.0     –6.1        3.2    –0.9    2.0    1.5        1.7      2.1      2.1       1.9
Malaysia               11.8     15.4     –8.3       12.7     8.6    7.7    7.7        7.5      7.5      7.7       7.6
New Zealand             7.9      1.7      1.2        4.0     6.5    6.6    5.7        5.2      5.3      5.6       5.7
Pakistan               13.8     18.1     24.4       15.1    16.9   18.3   17.0       16.2     16.5     16.7      16.9
Philippines            10.2     11.4      3.6       10.9     9.4    9.2    9.1        9.3      9.5      9.7       9.4
Singapore              15.6      2.7     –3.1       17.7     9.2    7.3    6.7        6.5      6.7      6.8       6.8
South Korea             7.3      5.3      3.6        9.3     8.0    6.7    6.6        7.1      7.2      6.8       6.9
Taiwan                  1.8     10.5     –2.8       11.9     7.1    6.9    7.0        7.1      7.3      7.6       7.2
Thailand                8.7      6.4     –0.4       11.7     7.6    9.1    9.2        8.6      8.7      8.8       8.9
Vietnam                17.4     29.8     11.7       16.6    25.7   19.2   13.2       13.1     12.9     13.2      14.3
Total                   9.1      7.6      2.3       10.8     8.5    8.6    8.6        9.0      9.2      9.4       9.0



Nominal GDP growth by country in Latin America (%) 
                                                                                                              2012–16
Latin America         2007     2008     2009        2010   2011p   2012   2013       2014    2015     2016      CAGR
Argentina              24.1     27.8     10.3       25.9    17.8   15.2   14.7       15.0     12.9     12.6      14.1
Brazil                 12.3     13.9      5.1       15.4     9.8    9.3    9.4        9.1      8.8      8.7       9.1
Chile                  10.3      3.9      2.3       13.8     9.8    7.9    7.7        7.7      7.9      8.0       7.8
Colombia               27.5     17.3     –4.5       24.0     8.4    7.5    7.7        7.7      7.8      7.9       7.7
Mexico                  9.2      7.8     –2.3       10.5     7.3    6.6    6.5        6.9      6.7      6.6       6.7
Venezuela              23.5     37.3      4.8       26.3    29.3   28.7   26.5       26.0     24.9     25.1      26.2
Total                  13.6     14.5      2.7       16.4    11.6   11.1   11.2       11.5     11.3     11.6      11.3




	                                                                                Industry overview | Methodology	13
Global nominal GDP growth (%) 
                                                                                                                 2012–16
                           2007      2008      2009     2010     2011p     2012    2013    2014    2015   2016     CAGR
Global                      7.5       5.8      –1.0      7.1        6.7     5.9     6.3     6.8     7.0    7.1       6.6



The following tables show historical and
projected growth rates for consumer
price inflation for the individual
countries in each region.


Consumer price inflation by country in North America (%)
                                                                                                                 2012–16
North America                2007      2008     2009     2010      2011p    2012   2013    2014    2015   2016     CAGR
United States                  2.9      3.8      –0.4      1.6       2.9     2.0     1.9     2.2    2.3    2.3       2.1
Canada                         2.2      2.4       0.3      1.8       2.8     2.1     2.0     2.1    2.0    2.0       2.0
Total                          2.8      3.7      –0.3      1.6       2.9     2.0     1.9     2.2    2.3    2.2       2.1




                                              View year-on-year growth for every data line. Visit the online
                                              Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook




14	      PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Consumer price inflation by country in EMEA (%)
                                                                                                                                                      2012–16
EMEA                            2007         2008         2009        2010        2011p         2012         2013        2014         2015     2016     CAGR
Western Europe
Austria                           2.2          3.1          0.5          1.7         3.1          2.8          2.4          2.3         2.1     2.2       2.4
Belgium                           1.8          4.5         –0.1          2.2         3.2          2.0          2.0          2.0         2.1     2.1       2.0
Denmark                           1.7          3.4          1.4          2.3         2.5          1.7          2.3          2.2         2.0     1.9       2.0
Finland                           2.5          4.1          0.0          1.3         3.4          3.0          2.5          2.3         2.1     2.1       2.4
France                            1.5          2.8          0.1          1.7         2.2          1.8          1.6          1.9         1.3     1.9       1.7
Germany                           2.3          2.6          0.4          1.2         2.3          2.8          2.5          2.3         1.7     1.3       2.1
Greece                            2.9          4.1          1.2          4.7         2.8          1.3          1.2          1.1         1.3     1.4       1.3
Ireland                           4.9          4.0         –4.5        –1.6          1.1          2.3          2.5          2.1         2.0     2.1       2.2
Italy                             1.7          3.4          0.7          1.6         2.7          0.8          1.5          1.7         1.9     2.0       1.6
Netherlands                       1.6          2.4          1.2          0.9         2.3          2.6          2.2          2.1         1.4     0.7       1.8
Norway                            0.8          3.7          2.2          2.3         1.6          2.0          2.1          2.3         2.5     2.5       2.3
Portugal                          2.8          2.6         –0.8          1.4         3.3          1.3          1.4          1.5         1.6     1.7       1.5
Spain                             2.8          4.0         –0.4          2.0         3.1          2.8          2.0          1.4         1.6     1.8       1.9
Sweden                            2.2          3.4         –0.3          1.9         2.9          1.8          1.8          2.0         1.9     2.0       1.9
Switzerland                       2.6          3.3         –3.9          0.7         0.5          0.1          1.3          1.3         1.4     1.7       1.1
United Kingdom                    4.3          4.0         –0.5          3.3         4.8          2.5          2.1          2.0         2.1     2.1       2.2
Western Europe total              2.4          3.3          0.0          1.8         2.8          2.0          2.0          2.0         1.7     1.8       1.9
Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic                    3.0          6.4          1.1          1.4         2.0          3.0          2.5          2.4         2.3     2.2       2.5
Hungary                           7.9          6.1          4.2          4.9         4.0          4.8          3.4          3.2         3.3     3.0       3.5
Poland                            2.3          4.4          3.9          2.7         4.1          2.7          2.6          2.5         2.6     2.6       2.6
Romania                           4.9          7.8          5.6          6.1         6.3          3.5          3.2          3.1         3.1     3.5       3.3
Russia                            9.0         14.1        11.7           6.9         8.3          6.5          6.4          6.6         6.2     5.7       6.3
Turkey                            8.7         10.4          6.3          8.6         5.9          8.3          5.5          5.2         4.6     4.9       5.7
Central and Eastern
Europe total                      6.4          9.7          7.9          6.0         6.5          6.0          5.3          5.4         5.0     4.9       5.3
Middle East/Africa                                                                                                                                          
Israel                            0.4          4.7          3.3          2.7         3.4          1.5          1.9          2.0         2.2     2.5       2.0
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)†                    5.7         10.0          3.6          4.6         5.6          5.7          5.5          5.5         5.7     5.9       5.7
South Africa                      7.2         11.5          7.1          4.3         5.0          5.5          5.4          5.3         5.4     5.7       5.5
Middle East/
Africa total                      5.0          9.5          4.2          4.3         5.2          5.2          5.1          5.2         5.4     5.6       5.3
EMEA total                        2.7          4.2          1.4          2.6         3.6          3.1          3.0          3.1         2.9     3.2       3.1

†Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.




	                                                                                                                    Industry overview | Methodology	15
Consumer price inflation by country in Asia Pacific (%) 
                                                                                                             2012–16
Asia Pacific               2007     2008     2009      2010    2011p      2012   2013   2014   2015   2016     CAGR
Australia                   2.3       4.4      1.8      2.8         3.2    2.8    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.7       2.8
China                       4.8       5.9     –0.7      3.3         5.6    3.9    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.8       3.8
Hong Kong                   1.9       4.3      0.6      2.4         5.5    4.5    3.5    3.0    2.6    2.7       3.3
India                       6.3       8.4     10.9      9.6         9.0    6.5    6.0    5.8    5.5    5.2       5.8
Indonesia                   9.1      11.0      2.8      6.9         5.7    6.5    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.0       5.5
Japan                       0.1       1.4     –1.4     –0.7        –0.4   –0.1    0.2    0.5    0.6    0.8       0.4
Malaysia                    2.0       5.5      0.6      1.7         3.2    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2       2.4
New Zealand                 2.6       3.8      1.9      1.8         4.4    2.7    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3       2.4
Pakistan                    7.6      20.3     13.6     13.9        13.9   14.0   12.0   10.5   10.0   10.0      11.3
Philippines                 2.8       9.3      3.3      4.5         4.5    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0       4.0
Singapore                   2.1       6.6      0.5      2.8         3.7    2.9    2.4    2.1    2.0    2.0       2.3
South Korea                 2.6       4.6      2.8      3.0         4.2    3.2    3.0    2.9    2.9    3.0       3.0
Taiwan                      2.3       3.5     –0.9      1.0         1.8    1.8    2.0    2.0    2.1    2.1       2.0
Thailand                    2.2       5.4     –0.9      3.3         4.0    4.1    4.2    3.5    3.5    3.4       3.7
Vietnam                     8.3      23.1      7.1      8.9        18.8   12.1    6.0    5.5    5.4    5.7       6.9
Total                       1.9       3.9      0.2      2.6         4.0    3.4    3.5    3.7    3.6    3.9       3.6



Consumer price inflation by country in Latin America (%)
                                                                                                             2012–16
Latin America              2007     2008     2009      2010    2011p      2012   2013   2014   2015   2016     CAGR
Argentina                   8.8       8.6      6.3     10.4        10.8   11.8   12.7   11.0    9.0    8.5      10.6
Brazil                      3.6       5.6      4.9      5.0         6.4    5.6    5.2    4.7    4.5    4.4       4.9
Chile                       4.3       8.8      1.7      1.2         3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.1       3.0
Colombia                    5.6       6.9      4.2      2.3         3.3    2.9    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0       3.0
Mexico                      4.0       5.2      5.3      4.2         3.3    3.4    3.2    3.4    3.3    3.1       3.3
Venezuela                  18.8      31.4     28.6     29.1        25.8   24.3   23.9   23.5   22.9   21.1      23.1
Total                       4.3       6.4      6.2      6.5         7.8    8.6    9.6   10.9   12.1   13.3      10.9



Global consumer price inflation (%)
                                                                                                             2012–16
                           2007     2008     2009      2010    2011p      2012   2013   2014   2015   2016     CAGR
Global                      2.5       4.0      0.8      2.6         3.8    3.5    3.5    4.0    4.2    4.7       4.0




16	      PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Viewpoint



            Preface and economic context	        18

            The end of the digital beginning:
            E&M companies reshape and
            retool for life in the new normal	   23
Preface and economic context




                                            We are pleased to present the 13th edition of PwC’s Global
                                            entertainment and media outlook.
                                            The purpose of this Industry Overview is to provide a brief overview of
                                            the data presented in the 2012–2016 Outlook and to present a thought
                                            piece on our insights related to the trends that drive the industry and
                                            the growth forecasts.

2011:
The recovery progresses
The global economy began to recover in
2010 from its steep decline in 2009 and
continued to advance in 2011, although
the hoped-for pickup in momentum did
not materialize consistently around the
globe. Global entertainment and media
(E&M) spending rose 4.9 percent in
2011—a bit faster than the 4.5 percent
increase in 2010 but still below gains
in prior expansion years. Advertising
increased 3.6 percent, down from
the 7.0 percent gain in 2010 that was
augmented by advertising associated
with the FIFA World Cup and Winter
Olympics and by the rebound from a
sluggish 2009. Consumer/end-user
spending rose 2.0 percent, up from the
1.3 percent rise in 2010. Internet access
recorded the largest improvement, rising
by 15.1 percent from the 10.0 percent
gain in 2010.




18   PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Projected and actual global 2011 E&M growth by category (%)

    Category                                              Projected                         Actual
    Advertising                                                  3.1                           3.6
    Consumer/end user                                            3.4                           2.0
    Internet access:
    wired and mobile                                             8.8                         15.1
    Total                                                        4.3                           4.9

    Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates




    Projected and actual global 2011 E&M growth by segment (%)

    Segment                                                 Projected                       Actual
    Internet access:
    wired and mobile                                                  8.8                     15.1
    Internet advertising:
    wired and mobile                                             13.6                         18.7
    TV subscriptions and
    license fees†                                                     7.0                      7.2
    TV advertising                                                    3.3                      3.1
    Recorded music‡                                              –5.7                         –2.4
    Filmed entertainment    ††
                                                                      5.1                      0.1
    Video games                                                       6.8                      2.2
    Consumer magazine
    publishing                                                        0.6                     –0.8
    Newspaper publishing                                         –0.1                         –0.7
    Radio                                                             3.1                      1.5
    Out-of-home advertising                                           2.0                      5.0
    Consumer and educational
    book publishing                                                   0.7                     –1.3
    Business-to-business‡‡                                            0.9                      0.6
    Total                                                             4.3                      4.9

    †Excludes video-on-demand, pay-per-view, and over-the-top.
    ‡Excludes concerts and music festivals.		
    ††Excludes video-on-demand and pay-per-view.	
    ‡‡Excludes trade shows.		




	                                       Industry overview | Preface and economic context	      19
In the 2011–15 Outlook, we pre-                      On a segment basis, in addition to          floor may exist in terms of spending
dicted a 3.1 percent increase in global              Internet access, Internet advertising,      on physical music. In filmed entertain-
advertising, which was a bit lower                   recorded music, and out-of-home             ment, box office spending in a number
than the 3.6 percent actual increase.                advertising substantially outperformed      of countries was disappointing, reflect-
Consumer/end-user spending rose                      our expectations in 2011, while filmed      ing less-appealing movies. In home
2.0 percent, a somewhat smaller gain                 entertainment, video games, and             video, Blu-ray gains were smaller than
than our 3.4 percent projection. We                  consumer and educational books grew         expected, while DVDs were pretty much
expected Internet access spending to                 less than we expected. TV subscrip-         as anticipated, with the result that
increase by 8.8 percent in 2011, but                 tions and license fees, TV advertising,     overall physical spending declined. In
actual growth was nearly twice as fast,              and business-to-business materially         video games, growth in online gaming
with a 15.1 percent increase. A jump                 matched our forecasts, while consumer       cut into the console market, leading to
in infrastructure spending combined                  magazine and newspaper publishing           slower growth in overall spending than
with a surge in smart-device pene-                   and radio were within two percentage        we expected. In consumer and educa-
tration fueled large gains in mobile                 points of our projections.                  tional books, lower-priced electronic
access and propelled the overall access                                                          books surged in 2011, cutting into print
                                                     In recorded music, declines in physical
market. Overall global E&M growth of                                                             sales. Overall spending declined even
                                                     spending moderated in a number of
4.9 percent was marginally ahead of                                                              as reading picked up.
                                                     countries, most notably in the United
the 4.3 percent increase we projected
                                                     States, leading to a smaller decline than
last year.
                                                     we expected and hinting that a natural


Global E&M spending and nominal GDP growth (%)

 10


  5


  0


 –5


–10


–15
      2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012      2013   2014   2015    2016

      Global nominal GDP                Global advertising

      Global consumer/end user          Global E&M spending

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates




20	    PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Looking forward                             Over the longer run, we expect the         E&M spending is affected by the
                                            economic climate to improve, which         economy, and countries experiencing
The economic prospects in the short                                                    healthy economic growth will see
                                            will lead to faster growth in E&M
term are mixed. Europe’s economy                                                       large gains in E&M spending. By
                                            spending during the next five years
remains weak, North America appears                                                    contrast, weak economies will dampen
                                            compared with the 2008–11 period.
to be improving, Latin America is                                                      growth in other countries. We expect
                                            Nevertheless, we expect E&M growth
relatively healthy, and the People’s                                                   gains averaging less than 3 percent
                                            to continue to lag nominal GDP growth,
Republic of China (PRC) and India                                                      annually in Japan, Germany, Ireland,
                                            principally because of the ongoing shift
continue to record strong, if moder-                                                   Denmark, Spain, and Greece and
                                            from higher-priced physical distribution
ating, growth. We expect the varied                                                    gains averaging less than 3.5 percent
                                            to lower-priced digital distribution. As
economic prospects to be reflected in                                                  compounded annually in the UK, Italy,
                                            the experience of the book publishing
E&M spending growth in 2012. We                                                        France, Austria, the Netherlands,
                                            industry in 2011 reveals, the shift in
project Europe, Middle East, Africa                                                    and Switzerland. Full data on E&M
                                            usage from traditional media to digital
(EMEA) to be the slowest-growing                                                       spending by country and major
                                            media limits growth because end-user
region, with a 3.5 percent increase,                                                   category can be found in the sections
                                            prices for digital content are generally
which will be less than the 5.2 percent                                                on regional spending.
                                            lower than prices for physical content.
advance in 2011. Latin America will
                                            During the next five years, we project
be the fastest-growing region, with a
                                            that E&M spending will grow at a
9.2 percent gain, nearly matching the
                                            5.7 percent compound annual rate—
9.5 percent gain in 2011. Asia Pacific
                                            below the projected 6.6 percent com-
will increase by 6.6 percent. Excluding
                                            pound annual increase in nominal GDP.
the relatively sluggish Japanese market,
the remainder of Asia Pacific is expected   The average growth rate masks wide
to grow by 9.0 percent. North America       disparities in growth, resulting from
will grow by a projected 5.7 percent in     economic disparities around the world.
2012, helped by an inflow of election-      A number of countries in Asia and
related advertising in the United States    Latin America along with Middle East/
as well as advertising associated with      North Africa (MENA), South Africa,
the Summer Olympics.                        and Russia will average double-digit
                                            increases during the next five years.




                                            Create customized bar charts and line graphs instantly. Visit the
                                            online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook




	                                                                       Industry overview | Preface and economic context	   21
The end of the digital beginning:
E&M companies reshape and
retool for life in the new normal



                                             Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the past year has seen global
                                             sales of tablets and smartphones reach record levels once again—thus
                                             underlining the growing revenue opportunities in the digital delivery
                                             of entertainment and media (E&M) content and advertising to
                                             increasingly connected and, particularly, mobile customers.


However, behind the headlines, an            Digital migration has two main impli-       The Outlook also confirms that the
even more important milestone for the        cations for E&M companies: One is           parallel global shifts we’ve highlighted
E&M industry is upcoming: the onset of       the need to make clear and commit-          in recent years will continue to play
the digital new normal. Digital is now       ted choices about the role or roles         out and strengthen through 2016, with
embedded in business as usual. And           companies should play in the digital        value shifting as follows.
as digital moves to the heart of many        value chain. The other is that behaviors
                                                                                         •	 From print to digital: For example,
media companies and begins to present        are changing rapidly and irreversibly
                                                                                            electronic books’ share of total global
the greatest opportunities for growth,       within organizations and organizations’
                                                                                            spending on consumer and educa-
what previously looked like a wide gap       customer bases—and leaders need to
                                                                                            tional books will rise from 5 percent
between old media models and new             understand and harness those behav-
                                                                                            in 2011 to 18 percent in 2016.
ones is being bridged.                       ioral changes to grow future revenues.
                                                                                         •	 From fixed to mobile-driven con-
Companies are planning out and execut-
                                                                                            sumption: Mobile Internet access
ing their strategies to cross to the new     Three global shifts                            increased from 26 percent of total
normal, and with that, we’re hearing
                                             Changing consumer behavior is driving          Internet access spending in 2007
clearer and more-consistent language
                                             both of the implications. Consumers’           to 40 percent in 2011—and will
from industry CEOs as they articulate
                                             ongoing migration to digital modes of          account for 45 percent in 2016.
the new landscape. That clearer lan-
guage signals that the initial uncertainty   consumption got accelerated by the eco-     •	 From West to East, North to South:
triggered by digital migration is giving     nomic downturn. And it is now continu-         During the next five years, total
way to a sharper focus on identifying,       ing to gain pace during the recovery,          E&M revenue growth in the East
choosing, and executing the business         fueled by three forces now commonly            (Central and Eastern Europe/Asia
models, organizational structures, and       summarized as “social, mobile, and             Pacific) will average 7.2 percent
skill sets that will harness new consumer    local,” to which others add, variously,        compounded annually, compared
behaviors to deliver rising future value     “global” and “commercial.” Together            with a 4.3 percent CAGR for the
in the changed environment.                  those forces will help companies tap           West (North America/Western
                                             into an expanding pool of value: this          Europe). And growth in the South
                                             edition of Global entertainment and            (Latin America/Middle East/Africa)
                                             media outlook projects that total global       will average 10.0 percent com-
                                             E&M revenues will rise from $1.6 trillion      pounded annually—more than twice
                                             in 2011 to $2.1 trillion by 2016.              the 4.5 percent CAGR in the North
                                                                                            (North America/Europe).




	                                                                         Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning   23
Looking beyond the                             …to map out the industry’s                 •	 For the industry: Development of
impact of digital…                             future topography                             the right organizational and opera-
                                                                                             tional models to understand and
In last year’s Industry Overview, we           Against this background, we believe           harness new behaviors inside and
noted that those shifts—spearheaded            the reshaping of the industry will take       outside organizations in order to
by digital migration—were driving              place based on the perspectives of three      grow their revenues and/or margins
change in three dimensions: the                main groups:                                  in the new normal.
empowered consumer, the involved
                                               •	 For consumers: The creation of          We’ll examine each of those perspec-
advertiser, and transformation of
                                                  more-compelling, more-immersive,        tives in turn.
the business for digital. The outcome
                                                  and increasingly shared experiences
of that transformation was a new
                                                  by understanding what connected
type of organization we termed the
                                                  consumers want—by finding the
Collaborative Digital Enterprise (CDE),
                                                  right little data amid the big data.
heralding a wider shift to a collabora-
tive ecosystem-based economy.                  •	 For advertisers and value chain
                                                  partners: The design of new
The developments of the past year rein-
                                                  business models that reinvent
force that view while also underlining
                                                  and expand the value proposi-
the fact that talking specifically about
                                                  tion of advertising and content
“digital” increasingly misses the point.
                                                  through innovation.
Digital marketing, for example, now
means marketing in a digital world. And
as digital becomes the new normal, its
rising penetration ceases to be a topic for
discussion. What matters is how compa-
nies capitalize on it and operate within it.




24   PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
1. Understanding the connected consumer
Any discussion or analysis of what’s             2011, which will rise to 55 percent         content. But today’s younger gener­
happening in entertainment and media             in 2016. In contrast, other segments        ations expect consuming media to
must begin with consumers. Why?                  are at the start of the journey: in the     involve multifaceted, personalized
Because change in today’s consumer               consumer magazine circulation mar-          experiences that they can touch and
behavior is both pervasive and acceler-          ket, digital paid circulation accounted     influence—meaning, they feel not just
ating—and E&M is in the front line of            for only 0.4 percent of total circulation   engaged but also immersed.
that change.                                     spending in 2011. But during the next
                                                                                             Those ideas aren’t new for consum-
                                                 five years, digital spending will surge,
PwC’s 15th Annual Global CEO Survey                                                          ers who were early adopters of digital
                                                 at a 76.1 percent CAGR, accounting for
finds that some 74 percent of CEOs in                                                        behaviors. But the difference today—
                                                 6.5 percent of total circulation spending
E&M are “somewhat concerned” or                                                              and the challenge for E&M companies—
                                                 by 2016.
“extremely concerned” about a perma-                                                         is that the expectation of an immersive
nent shift in consumer spending and                                                          content experience has now extended
behavior—the highest level of concern            Demanding immersive and                     across the mass market, meaning that
in any sector. Other PwC research bears          socialized experiences                      providers not only have to deliver on this
out the scale of the shifts under way:                                                       promise; they also must do so at ever-
more than 80 percent of respondents              So, what kinds of media experiences are     greater scale.
to PwC’s multichannel shopper survey1            these increasingly digital and connected
                                                 consumers seeking? They’re often            The drive for immersion is increasingly
now research their purchases online
                                                 characterized as more demanding. In         evident in the growth of such behaviors
before buying electronics, computers,
                                                 practice, this encompasses three specific   as personal marathoning and social
books, music, and movies.
                                                 shifts. Today’s consumers want to:          marathoning—consuming an entire
As the Outlook highlights, those changes                                                     series end-to-end either alone or socially.
reflect an underlying and ongoing                •	 Watch, read, or listen to what they      With smart devices now enabling easier
migration in consumer behavior and                  want and when they want to—              and fuller social interaction around such
spending toward digital consump-                    ranging from “now” to “in my own         content as newspapers and magazines,
tion and digital experiences. Growth                good time.”                              that same sense of socialized immersion
in digital spending—defined here as              •	 Access and consume content simul-        is emerging in other media and is driving
spending over Internet protocol plat-               taneously via multiple devices and       spending choices.
forms in such segments as broadband                 connections: TV, smartphone, tablet
and mobile Internet access, mobile TV               app, social media.
subscriptions, music, home video, video
games, newspapers, magazines, and                •	 Find and engage with provocative
books—will continue to outpace growth               and relevant media experiences that
in nondigital spending during the next              cross the traditional boundaries of
five years.                                         genre and immediacy—and ones
                                                    they can share, shape, and control.
Different segments are at different
stages of this industry-wide journey.            These characteristics add up to a search
Recorded music—which already has                 for immersive experiences that unite
a well-developed digital market—saw              the personal with the social. Past gen-
digital formats increase from 16 percent         erations could feel engaged through the
of spending in 2007 to 33 percent in             passive consumption of mass-market



1	“Customers take control,” PwC, December
   2011; http://download.pwc.com/ie/pubs/2011_
   customers_take_control.pdf.




	                                                                             Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning   25
Online gaming: the connected shape of things to come
A useful historical parallel for the connected and socialized future may be the rise
of online video games in Asia, where spending on online games overtook console/
handheld games in 2010. Such online games—especially advanced casual games
and massive multiplayer online games—were providing consumers with connected
social media experiences before people were even talking about social networks.
As the chart below shows, Asian countries—which also have huge cultures of social
media, such as China, which leads the way—have maintained their lead in terms
of growth in online/mobile gaming revenues. And outside Asia Pacific, such
markets as the US and Russia are also seeing healthy growth.
Many reasons have been suggested for Asian populations’ eager embrace of online
and social gaming, ranging from Asians’ relatively low participation in physical
sports to a simply game-friendly culture. But what’s clear is that online and mobile
gaming acted as a precursor of the socialization of other media in Asia and could
play the same role in other territories where online gaming takes off quickly when
the necessary connectivity becomes available.
In addition, as we’ll highlight later, online gaming has led the way in creating
flexible and sophisticated revenue models. To see the future of socialized media,
online gaming is a good place to start.


2007–11 growth in online/mobile video games (US$ millions)


    Russia     687



    United States           1,286



    Japan                    1,376



    South Korea                      1,750



    China                                                                     4,707


0                   1,000            2,000     3,000              4,000        5,000




26      PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
The medium formerly                          …and turning the second                      analog TV in the living room put the
known as TV: toward the                      screen into the consumer’s                   family circle at the center of the shared
media hub…                                   social nexus                                 content experience, the media hub will
                                                                                          shift the center of gravity toward a more
Amid these developments, one clear           With the advent of smart devices, the        geographically spread community of
trend is the continued strength of the       concept of the media hub has now             friends with shared interests, often of
medium formerly known as televi-             gained a so-called second screen for         similar ages. This extended circle of
sion—or, more accurately today, video.       sharing and enjoying these experiences       friends could become the media hub’s
The consumption of professional video        anywhere. And with formerly print-           killer application, glued together by the
content has never been more popular,         based media such as magazines and            shared content experience.
partly reflecting the explosion in the       newspapers launching smart-device
ways people can access it.                   apps, these forms of content could also
The growing number of ways and               become part of the overall media pack-       Smart devices
contexts in which people can experi-         age—as part of a multisegment media          spearheading change…
ence video content is creating a blend       bundle accessed via the media hub and
                                                                                          The first signs of the socialized mul-
of confusion, excitement, and choice for     its connected screens.
                                                                                          tiscreen future are already emerging.
consumers. It’s also raising questions       Some companies are already making            But how is the consumer experiencing
around the value proposition and pricing     the early running in this direction, such    them? The answer lies in the rocketing
of TV-only content bundles—especially        as Technicolor, with its MediaNavi and       take-up of smart devices.
given the advent of a rising generation      M-GO multiscreen content platform,
of savvy and increasingly urbanized                                                       Since the launch of the original iPad in
                                             whereby MediaNavi serves as the
consumers who still love television but                                                   April 2010, tablets have brought home
                                             socialized and personalized hub for
want more flexibility: first, in the ways                                                 to consumers—like no other device
                                             navigating and accessing the universe
they access and pay for content and                                                       has—what the future of media might
                                             of content, and the M-GO app expands
second, what content they get.                                                            look like. For the first time, consumers
                                             that access across a range of connected
                                                                                          became willing to watch premium video
Like previous generations, the new con-      devices. With social media incorporated
                                                                                          content on the go. And in addition to
sumers are passionate about other media      into the media hub concept, consum-
                                                                                          cutting into PC sales, the tablet provides
experiences as well as television: live      ers can take the logical next step from
                                                                                          a metaphor for the feel of a future with
concerts, radio, magazines, books, and       watching “everything whenever and
                                                                                          ever-available mobile video and non-
so on. But unlike previous generations,      wherever I want” to having friends and
                                                                                          video content.
they demand, consume, and function           family log in to share the experience in
in a world of globally connected social      real time.                                   As soon as consumers held tablets, they
media. And they’re increasingly adept                                                     could imagine a large one fixed on the liv-
                                             This could lead to an environment
at incorporating the various elements                                                     ing room wall for “big” content and fam-
                                             where all content is streamed as a
of content and connectivity into their                                                    ily viewing; a handy-size one for a decent
                                             cheap, easily available, cloud-based
media consumption mix. All of this                                                        personal or social content experience on
                                             utility-style service, with the streamed
points toward the multichannel, multi-                                                    the move; and a small one in the form of
                                             and shared live experience becoming
content, multiexperience future: a con-                                                   a smartphone, for times when connec-
                                             the premium form of content. The digi-
cept we’ve termed here the media hub,                                                     tivity, information, and immediacy are
                                             tal locker may also play a role, enabling
wherein a mass of content is available for                                                the priorities. Each device suits differ-
                                             consumers to store recorded content
an agreed price on all devices and where                                                  ent content and contexts. But the key is
                                             remotely and access it from anywhere
the live experience—be it US basketball                                                   that portability, accessibility to content,
                                             on any device.
or FIFA World Cup football or Lady Gaga                                                   on-demand capability, high resolution,
in concert—comes at a premium.               In such a world, the multicontent,           and acceptable screen size—all of those
                                             multidevice media hub could regain the       formerly conflicting goals—have finally
                                             role that TV held as the nexus of the col-   been reconciled.
                                             lective social experience from the 1950s
                                             through the 1990s. However, while the




	                                                                          Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning   27
…across broadcast and                        Consumer trends knock on                    …creating opportunities
print media                                  into B2B business models…                   for curators and B2B2C
Smart devices bring transformational         Consumers’ behavioral changes are also
                                                                                         providers
opportunities across EM segments.           driving change in business-to-business      For B2B information providers, the
For example, TV companies could give         (B2B) publishing. Most consumers are        most direct and most sustainable way to
consumers a customizable tablet/smart-       members of the business workforce—          maximize their proposition to advertis-
phone app that brings up a consumer’s        who are increasingly mobile as well as      ers is to be a curator of information for
own personal My Media on the TV, with        accustomed to accessing information         the target community. This information
the consumer’s favorite shows, mov-          via an ever-wider range of devices. They    is often publicly available elsewhere: if
ies, and apps. For instance, hotel guests    expect the same immersive quality           people have the time and inclination,
could get their own personal channels        and consistency of experience at work       they can now trawl around to find a
loaded straight up on the connected          as in their private lives and are incor-    mass of information on mergers-and-
TVs in their rooms by pointing their         porating social behaviors into their        acquisitions deals on the Internet. But
tablets at the TV.                           business behaviors.                         subscribers to the Financial Times’
                                                                                         mergermarket, for example, prefer to
Tablets are also enabling print pub-         For companies, these trends present
                                                                                         pay mergermarket to act as their curator
lishers to present consumers with a          challenges in terms of security and
                                                                                         for such information, by providing them
value proposition previously lacking in      access, but they also open up business
                                                                                         with tailored, convenient deal data seg-
those publishers’ online products, thus      opportunities. One outcome is that
                                                                                         mented by sector on their smart devices
convincing consumers to pay for addi-        corporations are setting up social net-
                                                                                         as they travel to work.
tional and premium content. Examples         works to encourage collaboration and
include the New York Times’ paid-for         innovation. Another is that formerly
fashion app called The Collection,           print-based B2B information publishers
which draws from a number of the             are starting to view their businesses in
newspaper’s products and repackages          a different way. It’s no coincidence that
them together stylishly.                     on its Web site, Wolters Kluwer of the
                                             Netherlands now calls itself “a global
More generally, as the Outlook high-
                                             provider of information, software, and
lights, tablets’ superior content experi-
                                             services” rather than a publisher.
ence is enabling growing numbers of
print publishers to harness rising digital   This is a major shift. For B2B informa-
revenues. E-books are claiming a ris-        tion providers, the core value of their
ing share of the paid-for book market.       business used to lie in their original
And more and more newspapers are             product, such as a trade magazine or
both launching apps and putting their        directory, whether physical or online.
content behind paywalls—often with a         But today, these businesses’ real asset
free incentive so as to win over commit-     is the deeply engaged specialist com-
ted print consumers. When Australia’s        munity with deep domain expertise for
Herald Sun launched its new paywall-         whom they provide information and
protected Web site and m-site alongside      interaction, thereby acting as a gateway
its iPad app in early 2012, for example,     for advertisers.
it offered an initial two-month free trial
of its Digital Pass.




28   PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC
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Global Media and Entertainment 2012 - 2016 Industry Overview by PwC

  • 1. www.pwc.com/outlook Global entertainment and media outlook 2012–2016 Industry overview 13th annual edition June 2012
  • 2. Global entertainment and media outlook 2012–2016 Industry overview 13th annual edition Each year, PwC’s global team of entertainment and media experts generates unbiased, in-depth forecasts for 13 industry segments. June 2012 Incorporating data from 4 principal regions comprising 48 countries and areas around the world, Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016 combines deep knowledge of local markets with a truly global perspective—a powerful tool for understanding critical business issues. To learn more about the challenges and opportunities ahead for the entertainment and media industry, please visit pwc.com/e&m
  • 3. Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016 Prepared and edited by: PwC firms help organizations and individuals Use of Outlook data Permission to cite create the value they are looking for. We are a This document is provided by PwC for general No part of this publication may be excerpted, network of firms in 158 countries with close to guidance only and does not constitute the reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or 169,000 people who are committed to delivering provision of legal advice, accounting services, distributed or transmitted in any form or by quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. investment advice, or professional consulting any means—including electronic, mechanical, of any kind. The information provided photocopying, recording, or scanning—without 300 Madison Avenue herein should not be used as a substitute for the prior written permission of PwC. New York, NY 10017 consultation with professional tax, accounting, +1-646-471-4000 Requests should be submitted in writing to legal, or other competent advisers. Before www.pwc.com Radhika Nanda at radhika.nanda@uk.pwc.com making any decision or taking any action, you outlining the excerpts you wish to use, along should consult a professional adviser who has with a draft copy of the full report that the Authored by: been provided with all pertinent facts relevant excerpts will appear in. Provision of this to your particular situation. Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global information is necessary for every citation research and analysis of the media, entertainment, The information is provided as is, with no request to enable PwC to assess the context in and telecommunications industries. assurance or guarantee of completeness, which the excerpts are being presented. www.wilkofskygruen.com accuracy, or timeliness of the information Without limiting the foregoing, and without warranty of any kind, express excerpts from the publication may or implied, including but not limited to Outlook editorial board: warranties of performance, merchantability, be used only for background market illustration, should not be the sole For the PwC Entertainment & and fitness for a particular purpose. source of 2012-2016 information, Media Practice: Outlook content must not be excerpted, used, and must not form the majority of or presented in any portion that would render sourced information. Deborah Bothun, Principal it misleading in any manner or that fails to James DePonte, Partner provide sufficient context. Sean DeWinter, Partner Marcel Fenez, Global Leader, Entertainment & Media Nick George, Partner Stefanie Kane, Partner © 2012 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member Alexandra Maclean, Global E&M Marketing Manager firms, each of which is also a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further Radhika Nanda, Global E&M Marketing Executive details. AT-12-0120 Pauline Orchard, Global E&M Marketing Leader Kenneth Sharkey, Partner Global entertainment and media outlook is a trademark owned by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Phil Stokes, Partner ISBN 978-1-931684-27-9 Many other professionals from the PwC Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016, Industry overview Entertainment & Media Practice reviewed and added local expertise to this publication. ISBN 978-1-931684-25-5 Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016 For Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc.: David Wilkofsky, Partner Arthur Gruen, Partner Norman D. Eisenberg, Vice President 2 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 4. Contents: Industry overview Letter from Global Leader, Entertainment & Media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 PwC Entertainment & Media Practice—country contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Scope and methodology Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Viewpoint Preface and economic context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 The end of the digital beginning: E&M companies reshape and retool for life in the new normal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Summaries by segment and region Global industry summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Global market by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Global market by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Index of tables and charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 This Industry Overview contains a top-line summary of industry data, along with PwC’s viewpoint about industry trends. It does not approach the depth or granularity of the full Outlook content, which provides more than 100,000 data points and in-depth commentary for the 13 segments and 48 countries and areas covered. For access to full data sets and commentary, visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook Industry overview 3
  • 5. Letter from Global Leader, Entertainment & Media June 2012 To our clients and friends both in and beyond the entertainment and media industry: Welcome to the 13th annual edition of PwC’s Global entertainment and media outlook, covering the forecast period 2012–2016. Our forecasts and analyses for this edition focus on 13 major entertainment and media (E&M) industry segments. To reflect the ever-changing nature of the industry, as well as the continuing growth of digital revenue streams, we continue seeking out new data sources and have again increased the depth of data across the 48 countries and areas covered in the Outlook. Given those increases in the depth and breadth of our content, you will now find certain of the data sets in the online Outlook only. I encourage you to get to know the online edition of the Outlook, which offers significant additional functionality and flexibility for the user of the underlying data and which includes additional territory-specific content. During 2011, both advertising spending and, to a lesser extent, consumer/end-user spending grew as overall economic activity and demand for high-quality content increased. Proliferation in the usage of smart mobile devices has enabled the convenience of consumption of content anywhere and anytime to become a reality. In the near term, economic prospects are mixed but should improve and lead to growth in the sector. However, we anticipate that overall growth in the E&M industry will lag nominal GDP growth due to an ongoing consumption shift to lower-priced digital distribution. Although rates of growth in China and India show some signs of moderating, those markets—as well as other fast-growing markets in Asia and Latin America—are the engines of global growth. The initial uncertainty of digital migration is giving way to a sharper focus on identifying and executing the business models, organizational structures, and skill sets that will deliver rising future value in the changed environment. Put simply, digital is now established as the new normal. The relative availability and affordability of fixed and mobile broadband in different markets set the pace of consumer adoption of digital. And as a consequence, some markets will continue to see differing growth patterns. Understanding how consumer behavior is changing and interpreting the mass of data that is being gathered about consumer preferences are becoming core skills and are providing the basis for monetization either directly or through collaboration and partnering with others. This is just one example of the areas where sources of value are changing. All of us at PwC continue to stay on top of trends and developments that may impact your business now and in the future, and we look forward to further sharing our thoughts with you. We appreciate your feedback and ask that you in turn continue telling us what we can do to make the Outlook more useful to you. For additional clarification on any matters included in the Outlook or if we can be of service to your business in any way, either contact one of the PwC E&M professionals listed on pages 5 and 6 or visit our Web site (www.pwc.com/e&m) for details of the contact in your territory. Finally, we thank you for your support and wish you an exciting and rewarding year ahead. Sincerely, Marcel Fenez Global Leader Entertainment & Media 4 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 6. PwC Entertainment & Media Practice—country contacts Global Marcel Fenez marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com North America Canada Tracey Jennings tracey.l.jennings@ca.pwc.com United States Kenneth Sharkey kenneth.j.sharkey@us.pwc.com EMEA Western Europe Austria Bernd Hoffman bernd.hoffman@at.pwc.com Belgium Eddy Dams eddy.dams@be.pwc.com Denmark John Gabriel Sørensen john.gabriel.sorensen@dk.pwc.com Finland Harri Valkonen harri.valkonen@fi.pwc.com France Matthieu Aubusson de Cavarlay matthieu.aubusson@fr.pwc.com Germany Werner Ballhaus werner.ballhaus@de.pwc.com Greece Dinos Michalatos dinos.michalatos@gr.pwc.com Ireland Paul O’Connor paul.w.oconnor@ie.pwc.com Italy Andrea Samaja andrea.samaja@it.pwc.com Netherlands Ennel van Eeden ennel.van.eeden@nl.pwc.com Norway Eivind Nilsen eivind.nilsen@no.pwc.com Portugal José Vitorino jose.vitorino@pt.pwc.com Spain Virginia Arce virginia.arce@es.pwc.com Sweden Nicklas Kullberg nicklas.kullberg@se.pwc.com Switzerland Patrick Balkanyi patrick.balkanyi@ch.pwc.com United Kingdom Phil Stokes phil.stokes@uk.pwc.com Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Jiri Moser jiri.moser@cz.pwc.com Hungary Manfred Krawietz manfred.h.krawietz@hu.pwc.com Poland Adam Krason adam.krason@pl.pwc.com Romania John Webster john.webster@ro.pwc.com Russia Natalia Yakovleva natalia.yakovleva@ru.pwc.com Turkey Murat Colakoglu murat.colakoglu@tr.pwc.com Middle East/Africa Israel Eran Iohan eran.iohan@il.pwc.com Middle East/North Africa † Fouad Alaeddin fouad.alaeddin@jo.pwc.com South Africa Vicky Myburgh vicky.myburgh@za.pwc.com †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Industry overview 5
  • 7. Asia Pacific Australia David Wiadrowski david.wiadrowski@au.pwc.com China Marcel Fenez marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com Hong Kong Marcel Fenez marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com India Timmy Kandhari timmy.s.kandhari@in.pwc.com Indonesia Chrisna Wardhana chrisna.wardhana@id.pwc.com Japan Akihiko Nakamura akihiko.nakamura@jp.pwc.com Korea Hum-Seok Park hum-seok.park@kr.pwc.com Malaysia Neil Proudlove neil.proudlove@my.pwc.com New Zealand Keren Blakey keren.blakey@nz.pwc.com Pakistan Sohail Hasan sohail.hasan@pk.pwc.com Philippines Mary Jade T. Roxas jade.roxas@ph.pwc.com Singapore Charlotte Hsu charlotte.hsu@sg.pwc.com Taiwan Han Wu han.wu@tw.pwc.com Thailand Kajornkiet Aroonpirodkul kajornkiet.aroonpirodkul@th.pwc.com Vietnam Ian Lydall ian.lydall@vn.pwc.com Latin America Argentina Jesús Estevéz jesus.estevez@ar.pwc.com Brazil Estela Vieira estela.vieira@br.pwc.com Chile Rafael Ruano rafael.ruano@cl.pwc.com Colombia Diego Henao diego.henao@co.pwc.com Mexico Luis Roberto Martínez del Barrio luis.roberto.martinez@mx.pwc.com Venezuela Estela Vieira estela.vieira@br.pwc.com 6 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 8. Scope and methodology Scope 8 Methodology 9
  • 9. Scope The Outlook reflects the collective wisdom of our large team of professionals who work with entertainment and media companies around the world. It is a unique resource for the industry, offering a five-year outlook for global consumer spending and advertising revenues, along with insights into the technology, government, political, and business trends driving those forecasts. New additions to the 2012 home distribution through pay TV Categories covered Outlook providers and also for over-the-top content accessed via the Internet. • Internet access spending: There are a number of data breakouts wired and mobile Because video-on-demand and pay-per- included in this year’s Outlook that view are major components of electronic • Internet advertising: were not provided in the past. We have home video distribution, we are now wired and mobile added trade shows to the “Business- including those revenue streams in to-Business” chapter, and concerts and • Television subscriptions “Filmed Entertainment.” And because music festivals to the “Recorded Music” and license fees “Television Subscriptions and License chapter, which we renamed “Music.” Fees” focuses principally on distribution, • Television advertising Also in “Music,” we are providing data we shifted to “Filmed Entertainment” for unit sales of both physical and • Music video-on-demand and pay-per-view to digital recorded music, available in the reflect payments for content. • Filmed entertainment online edition. In “Consumer Magazine Publishing,” we are providing per-issue • Video games unit sales for print circulation and paid unit sales for digital circulation, • Radio also available in the online edition. • Out-of-home advertising In “Filmed Entertainment,” we are providing revenue data for electronic • Consumer magazine publishing • Newspaper publishing • Consumer and educational book  publishing • Business-to-business Regions/countries covered North America EMEA Asia Pacific Latin America Canada Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Australia Argentina United States Austria Czech Republic China Brazil Belgium Hungary Hong Kong Chile Denmark Poland India Colombia Finland Romania Indonesia Mexico France Russia Japan Venezuela Germany Turkey Malaysia Greece New Zealand Ireland Middle East/Africa Pakistan Italy Israel Philippines Netherlands Middle East/North Africa (MENA)† Singapore Norway South Africa South Korea Portugal Taiwan Spain Thailand Sweden Vietnam Switzerland United Kingdom †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. 8 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 10. Methodology How we derive the data Forecast information How we report the data Recent trends in industry performance in each chapter Historical information are analyzed, and the factors underlying Segment spending consists of those trends are identified. advertising and end-user spending Historical information is obtained The factors considered are economic, related directly to entertainment principally from confidential and demographic, technological, and media content. Each chapter proprietary sources. In instances when institutional, behavioral, and introduction begins with a definition of third-party sources are consulted and competitive, as well as certain other the spending streams that are included their information is used directly— drivers that may affect each of the in that segment. We do not include from such sources as government entertainment and media markets. spending on hardware or on services agencies, trade associations, or related that may be needed to access content. entities that seek to have their data Models are then developed to quantify disseminated in the public domain— the impact of each factor on industry End-user spending is counted at the the sources of such information are spending. Next, a forecast scenario for consumer or end-user level, not at the explicitly cited. In instances when the each causative factor is created, and wholesale level, and includes retail information is used indirectly, as part of the contribution of each factor on a markups when applicable. the calculus for the historical data, the prospective basis is identified. Advertising spending is measured net sources are proprietary. Those proprietary mathematical models of agency commissions in all territories Each year, we look not only at data for and analytic algorithms are applied in except the United States and Russia, the most recent year but also at the the process to provide an initial array where gross advertising is measured to historical data to determine whether of prospective values. Our professional be consistent with the way advertising there have been any revisions and expertise and institutional knowledge is generally reported. whether new sources have emerged are then brought to bear in a review and In addition to annual-spending figures, that provide a more complete or more adjustment of those values if required. we also present data that are measured accurate picture of the market. In some The entire process is then examined for at a single point in time, such as TV cases, that exercise leads us to revise internal consistency and transparency subscriptions, Internet subscriptions, historical spending levels and growth vis-à-vis prevailing industry wisdom. mobile subscriptions, and newspaper trends from one edition to the next. Forecasts for 2012–2016 are also unit circulation. In those instances, based on analysis of the dynamics of we show annual averages rather than each segment in each region and on year-end totals because annual averages factors that affect those dynamics. We more accurately connect the impact of provide compound annual growth rates these figures to annual spending. (CAGRs) that cover the 2012–2016 forecast period. In the calculation of Inflation CAGRs, 2011 is the beginning year, with five growth years during the forecast Across all chapters, figures are reported period: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, in nominal terms reflecting actual and 2016. The end year is 2016. The spending transactions and therefore formula is: include the effects of inflation. CAGR = 100 * [(Value in 2016/Value in 2011)1/5 – 1] Key to symbols used in the tables and charts p = preliminary NA = not available — = no spending that year Totals in tables and charts may not total arithmetically due to rounding. Industry overview | Methodology 9
  • 11. Exchange rates are not distorted by fluctuations in international exchange rates. All figures are presented in US dollars by using the average 2011 exchange The exchange rates used for the rate held constant for each historical individual countries in each region are year and forecast year. This means outlined in the following tables. the figures reflect industry trends and Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average) Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average) North America Currency Exchange rate EMEA Currency Exchange rate United States Dollar 1.0000 Western Europe Canada Dollar 0.9888 Austria Euro 0.7188 Belgium Euro 0.7188 Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average) Denmark Krone 5.3552 Finland Euro 0.7188 Asia Pacific Currency Exchange rate France Euro 0.7188 Australia Dollar 0.9687 Germany Euro 0.7188 China Yuan (renminbi) 6.4544 Greece Euro 0.7188 Hong Kong Dollar 7.7839 Ireland Euro 0.7188 India Rupee 46.8466 Italy Euro 0.7188 Indonesia Rupiah 8,779.0000 Netherlands Euro 0.7188 Japan Yen 79.7000 Norway Kroner 5.6008 Malaysia Ringgit 3.0528 Portugal Euro 0.7188 New Zealand Dollar 1.2629 Spain Euro 0.7188 Pakistan Rupee 85.6576 Sweden Krona 6.4873 Philippines Peso 43.1844 Switzerland Franc 0.8866 Singapore Dollar 1.2567 United Kingdom Pound sterling 0.6235 South Korea Won 1,105.7300 Central and Eastern Europe Taiwan Dollar 29.2632 Czech Republic Koruna 17.6870 Thailand Baht 30.4944 Hungary Forint 200.6790 Vietnam Dong 20,453.6000 Poland Zloty 2.9585 Romania New lei 3.0446 Exchange rates per US$ (2011 average) Russia Ruble 29.3303 Turkey New lira 1.6774 Latin America Currency Exchange rate Middle East/Africa Argentina Peso 4.1213 Israel New shekel 3.5603 Brazil Real 1.6698 Middle East/North Chile Peso 481.5800 Africa (MENA)† US dollar 1.0000 Colombia Peso 1,827.4900 South Africa Rand 7.2313 Mexico Peso 12.4183 †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Venezuela Bolivar fuerte 4.2897 Figures are estimated in US dollars. 10 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 12. Because all figures are shown as actual and media spending. The following spending, with the effects of inflation tables show historical and projected included, nominal GDP growth has an growth rates for nominal GDP for the important influence on entertainment individual countries in each region. Nominal GDP growth by country in North America (%) 2012–16 North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR United States 4.9 2.2 –1.7 3.8 4.5 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.8 Canada 6.4 4.6 –4.7 4.9 5.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Total 5.1 2.4 –2.0 3.9 4.6 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.7 View data in your local currency. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook Industry overview | Methodology 11
  • 13. Nominal GDP growth by country in EMEA (%) 2012–16 EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Western Europe Austria 5.8 4.1 –3.1 3.5 6.0 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 Belgium 5.3 2.9 –1.6 3.9 5.4 1.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 2.8 Denmark 3.9 2.7 –4.9 4.4 4.0 2.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.9 Finland 8.5 2.8 –7.3 4.4 6.2 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.5 France 4.9 2.7 –2.0 2.0 3.9 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 Germany 4.6 2.0 –3.4 4.7 4.9 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.7 3.6 Greece 7.5 4.3 –0.8 –2.0 –2.7 –3.6 –0.4 0.6 1.6 2.7 0.2 Ireland 6.8 –5.0 –11.3 –3.6 2.0 1.3 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.5 2.6 Italy 4.0 1.4 –3.0 2.3 3.3 –0.6 0.9 2.1 2.8 3.1 1.6 Netherlands 5.3 4.8 –4.3 3.1 4.1 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.0 2.5 3.1 Norway 5.2 10.8 –5.4 5.2 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 4.5 Portugal 5.3 1.9 –2.3 2.7 1.1 –2.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.6 0.7 Spain 7.1 3.2 –3.1 1.8 3.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.8 2.7 Sweden 6.2 2.5 –3.6 6.9 7.2 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.8 Switzerland 6.2 4.4 –1.6 2.0 2.5 0.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.4 2.6 United Kingdom 5.8 2.9 –3.5 4.4 5.8 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 Western Europe total 5.3 2.7 –3.3 3.2 4.3 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.1 Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic 9.7 4.3 –1.7 1.2 4.1 3.7 4.5 4.8 5.7 5.2 4.8 Hungary 6.7 5.7 –2.6 4.1 5.6 5.1 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.3 5.4 Poland 11.0 8.4 5.3 5.1 8.0 5.2 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.8 Romania 39.1 19.7 –20.1 –1.0 7.8 5.0 5.6 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.3 Russia 22.0 27.0 –5.7 11.1 12.7 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 9.8 10.2 Turkey 11.2 12.7 0.2 18.3 12.9 10.2 8.7 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.1 Central and Eastern Europe total 16.9 17.7 –3.4 10.1 11.0 8.5 8.4 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 Middle East/Africa Israel 6.0 5.2 5.9 5.8 8.4 5.3 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.7 Middle East/North Africa (MENA)† 14.7 22.0 –11.1 10.4 11.5 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.0 9.8 9.6 South Africa 14.1 13.2 6.1 8.8 8.7 11.6 9.2 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.7 Middle East/ Africa total 13.4 18.2 –6.1 9.5 10.5 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.3 9.2 EMEA total 7.2 5.8 –3.5 4.7 5.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.6 †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. 12 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 14. Nominal GDP growth by country in Asia Pacific (%) 2012–16 Asia Pacific 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Australia 9.2 9.1 0.6 5.5 4.7 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.0 China 19.6 18.1 8.6 16.7 14.9 12.3 12.5 12.8 12.6 12.7 12.6 Hong Kong 9.6 3.8 –3.3 7.8 11.8 8.9 8.4 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.2 India 16.1 12.0 17.3 20.3 16.4 14.2 13.8 14.0 13.8 12.7 13.7 Indonesia 18.3 25.3 13.2 14.6 12.5 13.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 12.9 Japan 1.6 –2.0 –6.1 3.2 –0.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.9 Malaysia 11.8 15.4 –8.3 12.7 8.6 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 New Zealand 7.9 1.7 1.2 4.0 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 Pakistan 13.8 18.1 24.4 15.1 16.9 18.3 17.0 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 Philippines 10.2 11.4 3.6 10.9 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.4 Singapore 15.6 2.7 –3.1 17.7 9.2 7.3 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 South Korea 7.3 5.3 3.6 9.3 8.0 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 6.8 6.9 Taiwan 1.8 10.5 –2.8 11.9 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.2 Thailand 8.7 6.4 –0.4 11.7 7.6 9.1 9.2 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 Vietnam 17.4 29.8 11.7 16.6 25.7 19.2 13.2 13.1 12.9 13.2 14.3 Total 9.1 7.6 2.3 10.8 8.5 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.0 Nominal GDP growth by country in Latin America (%)  2012–16 Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Argentina 24.1 27.8 10.3 25.9 17.8 15.2 14.7 15.0 12.9 12.6 14.1 Brazil 12.3 13.9 5.1 15.4 9.8 9.3 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.7 9.1 Chile 10.3 3.9 2.3 13.8 9.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.9 8.0 7.8 Colombia 27.5 17.3 –4.5 24.0 8.4 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.7 Mexico 9.2 7.8 –2.3 10.5 7.3 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.7 Venezuela 23.5 37.3 4.8 26.3 29.3 28.7 26.5 26.0 24.9 25.1 26.2 Total 13.6 14.5 2.7 16.4 11.6 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.3 11.6 11.3 Industry overview | Methodology 13
  • 15. Global nominal GDP growth (%)  2012–16 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Global 7.5 5.8 –1.0 7.1 6.7 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.1 6.6 The following tables show historical and projected growth rates for consumer price inflation for the individual countries in each region. Consumer price inflation by country in North America (%) 2012–16 North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR United States 2.9 3.8 –0.4 1.6 2.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 Canada 2.2 2.4 0.3 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Total 2.8 3.7 –0.3 1.6 2.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 View year-on-year growth for every data line. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook 14 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 16. Consumer price inflation by country in EMEA (%) 2012–16 EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Western Europe Austria 2.2 3.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 Belgium 1.8 4.5 –0.1 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 Denmark 1.7 3.4 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 Finland 2.5 4.1 0.0 1.3 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 France 1.5 2.8 0.1 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.7 Germany 2.3 2.6 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.3 2.1 Greece 2.9 4.1 1.2 4.7 2.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 Ireland 4.9 4.0 –4.5 –1.6 1.1 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 Italy 1.7 3.4 0.7 1.6 2.7 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 Netherlands 1.6 2.4 1.2 0.9 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.7 1.8 Norway 0.8 3.7 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 Portugal 2.8 2.6 –0.8 1.4 3.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 Spain 2.8 4.0 –0.4 2.0 3.1 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 Sweden 2.2 3.4 –0.3 1.9 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 Switzerland 2.6 3.3 –3.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.1 United Kingdom 4.3 4.0 –0.5 3.3 4.8 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 Western Europe total 2.4 3.3 0.0 1.8 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic 3.0 6.4 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.5 Hungary 7.9 6.1 4.2 4.9 4.0 4.8 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.5 Poland 2.3 4.4 3.9 2.7 4.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Romania 4.9 7.8 5.6 6.1 6.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.3 Russia 9.0 14.1 11.7 6.9 8.3 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.2 5.7 6.3 Turkey 8.7 10.4 6.3 8.6 5.9 8.3 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.9 5.7 Central and Eastern Europe total 6.4 9.7 7.9 6.0 6.5 6.0 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.9 5.3 Middle East/Africa   Israel 0.4 4.7 3.3 2.7 3.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 Middle East/North Africa (MENA)† 5.7 10.0 3.6 4.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 South Africa 7.2 11.5 7.1 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.5 Middle East/ Africa total 5.0 9.5 4.2 4.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 EMEA total 2.7 4.2 1.4 2.6 3.6 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.1 †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Industry overview | Methodology 15
  • 17. Consumer price inflation by country in Asia Pacific (%)  2012–16 Asia Pacific 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Australia 2.3 4.4 1.8 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 China 4.8 5.9 –0.7 3.3 5.6 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 Hong Kong 1.9 4.3 0.6 2.4 5.5 4.5 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.3 India 6.3 8.4 10.9 9.6 9.0 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.8 Indonesia 9.1 11.0 2.8 6.9 5.7 6.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.5 Japan 0.1 1.4 –1.4 –0.7 –0.4 –0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 Malaysia 2.0 5.5 0.6 1.7 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 New Zealand 2.6 3.8 1.9 1.8 4.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 Pakistan 7.6 20.3 13.6 13.9 13.9 14.0 12.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 11.3 Philippines 2.8 9.3 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Singapore 2.1 6.6 0.5 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 South Korea 2.6 4.6 2.8 3.0 4.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Taiwan 2.3 3.5 –0.9 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 Thailand 2.2 5.4 –0.9 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.7 Vietnam 8.3 23.1 7.1 8.9 18.8 12.1 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 6.9 Total 1.9 3.9 0.2 2.6 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.6 Consumer price inflation by country in Latin America (%) 2012–16 Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Argentina 8.8 8.6 6.3 10.4 10.8 11.8 12.7 11.0 9.0 8.5 10.6 Brazil 3.6 5.6 4.9 5.0 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.9 Chile 4.3 8.8 1.7 1.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 Colombia 5.6 6.9 4.2 2.3 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Mexico 4.0 5.2 5.3 4.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.3 Venezuela 18.8 31.4 28.6 29.1 25.8 24.3 23.9 23.5 22.9 21.1 23.1 Total 4.3 6.4 6.2 6.5 7.8 8.6 9.6 10.9 12.1 13.3 10.9 Global consumer price inflation (%) 2012–16 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR Global 2.5 4.0 0.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.7 4.0 16 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 18. Viewpoint Preface and economic context 18 The end of the digital beginning: E&M companies reshape and retool for life in the new normal 23
  • 19. Preface and economic context We are pleased to present the 13th edition of PwC’s Global entertainment and media outlook. The purpose of this Industry Overview is to provide a brief overview of the data presented in the 2012–2016 Outlook and to present a thought piece on our insights related to the trends that drive the industry and the growth forecasts. 2011: The recovery progresses The global economy began to recover in 2010 from its steep decline in 2009 and continued to advance in 2011, although the hoped-for pickup in momentum did not materialize consistently around the globe. Global entertainment and media (E&M) spending rose 4.9 percent in 2011—a bit faster than the 4.5 percent increase in 2010 but still below gains in prior expansion years. Advertising increased 3.6 percent, down from the 7.0 percent gain in 2010 that was augmented by advertising associated with the FIFA World Cup and Winter Olympics and by the rebound from a sluggish 2009. Consumer/end-user spending rose 2.0 percent, up from the 1.3 percent rise in 2010. Internet access recorded the largest improvement, rising by 15.1 percent from the 10.0 percent gain in 2010. 18 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 20. Projected and actual global 2011 E&M growth by category (%) Category Projected Actual Advertising 3.1 3.6 Consumer/end user 3.4 2.0 Internet access: wired and mobile 8.8 15.1 Total 4.3 4.9 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Projected and actual global 2011 E&M growth by segment (%) Segment Projected Actual Internet access: wired and mobile 8.8 15.1 Internet advertising: wired and mobile 13.6 18.7 TV subscriptions and license fees† 7.0 7.2 TV advertising 3.3 3.1 Recorded music‡ –5.7 –2.4 Filmed entertainment †† 5.1 0.1 Video games 6.8 2.2 Consumer magazine publishing 0.6 –0.8 Newspaper publishing –0.1 –0.7 Radio 3.1 1.5 Out-of-home advertising 2.0 5.0 Consumer and educational book publishing 0.7 –1.3 Business-to-business‡‡ 0.9 0.6 Total 4.3 4.9 †Excludes video-on-demand, pay-per-view, and over-the-top. ‡Excludes concerts and music festivals. ††Excludes video-on-demand and pay-per-view. ‡‡Excludes trade shows. Industry overview | Preface and economic context 19
  • 21. In the 2011–15 Outlook, we pre- On a segment basis, in addition to floor may exist in terms of spending dicted a 3.1 percent increase in global Internet access, Internet advertising, on physical music. In filmed entertain- advertising, which was a bit lower recorded music, and out-of-home ment, box office spending in a number than the 3.6 percent actual increase. advertising substantially outperformed of countries was disappointing, reflect- Consumer/end-user spending rose our expectations in 2011, while filmed ing less-appealing movies. In home 2.0 percent, a somewhat smaller gain entertainment, video games, and video, Blu-ray gains were smaller than than our 3.4 percent projection. We consumer and educational books grew expected, while DVDs were pretty much expected Internet access spending to less than we expected. TV subscrip- as anticipated, with the result that increase by 8.8 percent in 2011, but tions and license fees, TV advertising, overall physical spending declined. In actual growth was nearly twice as fast, and business-to-business materially video games, growth in online gaming with a 15.1 percent increase. A jump matched our forecasts, while consumer cut into the console market, leading to in infrastructure spending combined magazine and newspaper publishing slower growth in overall spending than with a surge in smart-device pene- and radio were within two percentage we expected. In consumer and educa- tration fueled large gains in mobile points of our projections. tional books, lower-priced electronic access and propelled the overall access books surged in 2011, cutting into print In recorded music, declines in physical market. Overall global E&M growth of sales. Overall spending declined even spending moderated in a number of 4.9 percent was marginally ahead of as reading picked up. countries, most notably in the United the 4.3 percent increase we projected States, leading to a smaller decline than last year. we expected and hinting that a natural Global E&M spending and nominal GDP growth (%) 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Global nominal GDP Global advertising Global consumer/end user Global E&M spending Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 20 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 22. Looking forward Over the longer run, we expect the E&M spending is affected by the economic climate to improve, which economy, and countries experiencing The economic prospects in the short healthy economic growth will see will lead to faster growth in E&M term are mixed. Europe’s economy large gains in E&M spending. By spending during the next five years remains weak, North America appears contrast, weak economies will dampen compared with the 2008–11 period. to be improving, Latin America is growth in other countries. We expect Nevertheless, we expect E&M growth relatively healthy, and the People’s gains averaging less than 3 percent to continue to lag nominal GDP growth, Republic of China (PRC) and India annually in Japan, Germany, Ireland, principally because of the ongoing shift continue to record strong, if moder- Denmark, Spain, and Greece and from higher-priced physical distribution ating, growth. We expect the varied gains averaging less than 3.5 percent to lower-priced digital distribution. As economic prospects to be reflected in compounded annually in the UK, Italy, the experience of the book publishing E&M spending growth in 2012. We France, Austria, the Netherlands, industry in 2011 reveals, the shift in project Europe, Middle East, Africa and Switzerland. Full data on E&M usage from traditional media to digital (EMEA) to be the slowest-growing spending by country and major media limits growth because end-user region, with a 3.5 percent increase, category can be found in the sections prices for digital content are generally which will be less than the 5.2 percent on regional spending. lower than prices for physical content. advance in 2011. Latin America will During the next five years, we project be the fastest-growing region, with a that E&M spending will grow at a 9.2 percent gain, nearly matching the 5.7 percent compound annual rate— 9.5 percent gain in 2011. Asia Pacific below the projected 6.6 percent com- will increase by 6.6 percent. Excluding pound annual increase in nominal GDP. the relatively sluggish Japanese market, the remainder of Asia Pacific is expected The average growth rate masks wide to grow by 9.0 percent. North America disparities in growth, resulting from will grow by a projected 5.7 percent in economic disparities around the world. 2012, helped by an inflow of election- A number of countries in Asia and related advertising in the United States Latin America along with Middle East/ as well as advertising associated with North Africa (MENA), South Africa, the Summer Olympics. and Russia will average double-digit increases during the next five years. Create customized bar charts and line graphs instantly. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook Industry overview | Preface and economic context 21
  • 23.
  • 24. The end of the digital beginning: E&M companies reshape and retool for life in the new normal Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the past year has seen global sales of tablets and smartphones reach record levels once again—thus underlining the growing revenue opportunities in the digital delivery of entertainment and media (E&M) content and advertising to increasingly connected and, particularly, mobile customers. However, behind the headlines, an Digital migration has two main impli- The Outlook also confirms that the even more important milestone for the cations for E&M companies: One is parallel global shifts we’ve highlighted E&M industry is upcoming: the onset of the need to make clear and commit- in recent years will continue to play the digital new normal. Digital is now ted choices about the role or roles out and strengthen through 2016, with embedded in business as usual. And companies should play in the digital value shifting as follows. as digital moves to the heart of many value chain. The other is that behaviors • From print to digital: For example, media companies and begins to present are changing rapidly and irreversibly electronic books’ share of total global the greatest opportunities for growth, within organizations and organizations’ spending on consumer and educa- what previously looked like a wide gap customer bases—and leaders need to tional books will rise from 5 percent between old media models and new understand and harness those behav- in 2011 to 18 percent in 2016. ones is being bridged. ioral changes to grow future revenues. • From fixed to mobile-driven con- Companies are planning out and execut- sumption: Mobile Internet access ing their strategies to cross to the new Three global shifts increased from 26 percent of total normal, and with that, we’re hearing Changing consumer behavior is driving Internet access spending in 2007 clearer and more-consistent language both of the implications. Consumers’ to 40 percent in 2011—and will from industry CEOs as they articulate ongoing migration to digital modes of account for 45 percent in 2016. the new landscape. That clearer lan- guage signals that the initial uncertainty consumption got accelerated by the eco- • From West to East, North to South: triggered by digital migration is giving nomic downturn. And it is now continu- During the next five years, total way to a sharper focus on identifying, ing to gain pace during the recovery, E&M revenue growth in the East choosing, and executing the business fueled by three forces now commonly (Central and Eastern Europe/Asia models, organizational structures, and summarized as “social, mobile, and Pacific) will average 7.2 percent skill sets that will harness new consumer local,” to which others add, variously, compounded annually, compared behaviors to deliver rising future value “global” and “commercial.” Together with a 4.3 percent CAGR for the in the changed environment. those forces will help companies tap West (North America/Western into an expanding pool of value: this Europe). And growth in the South edition of Global entertainment and (Latin America/Middle East/Africa) media outlook projects that total global will average 10.0 percent com- E&M revenues will rise from $1.6 trillion pounded annually—more than twice in 2011 to $2.1 trillion by 2016. the 4.5 percent CAGR in the North (North America/Europe). Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning 23
  • 25. Looking beyond the …to map out the industry’s • For the industry: Development of impact of digital… future topography the right organizational and opera- tional models to understand and In last year’s Industry Overview, we Against this background, we believe harness new behaviors inside and noted that those shifts—spearheaded the reshaping of the industry will take outside organizations in order to by digital migration—were driving place based on the perspectives of three grow their revenues and/or margins change in three dimensions: the main groups: in the new normal. empowered consumer, the involved • For consumers: The creation of We’ll examine each of those perspec- advertiser, and transformation of more-compelling, more-immersive, tives in turn. the business for digital. The outcome and increasingly shared experiences of that transformation was a new by understanding what connected type of organization we termed the consumers want—by finding the Collaborative Digital Enterprise (CDE), right little data amid the big data. heralding a wider shift to a collabora- tive ecosystem-based economy. • For advertisers and value chain partners: The design of new The developments of the past year rein- business models that reinvent force that view while also underlining and expand the value proposi- the fact that talking specifically about tion of advertising and content “digital” increasingly misses the point. through innovation. Digital marketing, for example, now means marketing in a digital world. And as digital becomes the new normal, its rising penetration ceases to be a topic for discussion. What matters is how compa- nies capitalize on it and operate within it. 24 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 26. 1. Understanding the connected consumer Any discussion or analysis of what’s 2011, which will rise to 55 percent content. But today’s younger gener­ happening in entertainment and media in 2016. In contrast, other segments ations expect consuming media to must begin with consumers. Why? are at the start of the journey: in the involve multifaceted, personalized Because change in today’s consumer consumer magazine circulation mar- experiences that they can touch and behavior is both pervasive and acceler- ket, digital paid circulation accounted influence—meaning, they feel not just ating—and E&M is in the front line of for only 0.4 percent of total circulation engaged but also immersed. that change. spending in 2011. But during the next Those ideas aren’t new for consum- five years, digital spending will surge, PwC’s 15th Annual Global CEO Survey ers who were early adopters of digital at a 76.1 percent CAGR, accounting for finds that some 74 percent of CEOs in behaviors. But the difference today— 6.5 percent of total circulation spending E&M are “somewhat concerned” or and the challenge for E&M companies— by 2016. “extremely concerned” about a perma- is that the expectation of an immersive nent shift in consumer spending and content experience has now extended behavior—the highest level of concern Demanding immersive and across the mass market, meaning that in any sector. Other PwC research bears socialized experiences providers not only have to deliver on this out the scale of the shifts under way: promise; they also must do so at ever- more than 80 percent of respondents So, what kinds of media experiences are greater scale. to PwC’s multichannel shopper survey1 these increasingly digital and connected consumers seeking? They’re often The drive for immersion is increasingly now research their purchases online characterized as more demanding. In evident in the growth of such behaviors before buying electronics, computers, practice, this encompasses three specific as personal marathoning and social books, music, and movies. shifts. Today’s consumers want to: marathoning—consuming an entire As the Outlook highlights, those changes series end-to-end either alone or socially. reflect an underlying and ongoing • Watch, read, or listen to what they With smart devices now enabling easier migration in consumer behavior and want and when they want to— and fuller social interaction around such spending toward digital consump- ranging from “now” to “in my own content as newspapers and magazines, tion and digital experiences. Growth good time.” that same sense of socialized immersion in digital spending—defined here as • Access and consume content simul- is emerging in other media and is driving spending over Internet protocol plat- taneously via multiple devices and spending choices. forms in such segments as broadband connections: TV, smartphone, tablet and mobile Internet access, mobile TV app, social media. subscriptions, music, home video, video games, newspapers, magazines, and • Find and engage with provocative books—will continue to outpace growth and relevant media experiences that in nondigital spending during the next cross the traditional boundaries of five years. genre and immediacy—and ones they can share, shape, and control. Different segments are at different stages of this industry-wide journey. These characteristics add up to a search Recorded music—which already has for immersive experiences that unite a well-developed digital market—saw the personal with the social. Past gen- digital formats increase from 16 percent erations could feel engaged through the of spending in 2007 to 33 percent in passive consumption of mass-market 1 “Customers take control,” PwC, December 2011; http://download.pwc.com/ie/pubs/2011_ customers_take_control.pdf. Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning 25
  • 27. Online gaming: the connected shape of things to come A useful historical parallel for the connected and socialized future may be the rise of online video games in Asia, where spending on online games overtook console/ handheld games in 2010. Such online games—especially advanced casual games and massive multiplayer online games—were providing consumers with connected social media experiences before people were even talking about social networks. As the chart below shows, Asian countries—which also have huge cultures of social media, such as China, which leads the way—have maintained their lead in terms of growth in online/mobile gaming revenues. And outside Asia Pacific, such markets as the US and Russia are also seeing healthy growth. Many reasons have been suggested for Asian populations’ eager embrace of online and social gaming, ranging from Asians’ relatively low participation in physical sports to a simply game-friendly culture. But what’s clear is that online and mobile gaming acted as a precursor of the socialization of other media in Asia and could play the same role in other territories where online gaming takes off quickly when the necessary connectivity becomes available. In addition, as we’ll highlight later, online gaming has led the way in creating flexible and sophisticated revenue models. To see the future of socialized media, online gaming is a good place to start. 2007–11 growth in online/mobile video games (US$ millions) Russia 687 United States 1,286 Japan 1,376 South Korea 1,750 China 4,707 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 26 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016
  • 28. The medium formerly …and turning the second analog TV in the living room put the known as TV: toward the screen into the consumer’s family circle at the center of the shared media hub… social nexus content experience, the media hub will shift the center of gravity toward a more Amid these developments, one clear With the advent of smart devices, the geographically spread community of trend is the continued strength of the concept of the media hub has now friends with shared interests, often of medium formerly known as televi- gained a so-called second screen for similar ages. This extended circle of sion—or, more accurately today, video. sharing and enjoying these experiences friends could become the media hub’s The consumption of professional video anywhere. And with formerly print- killer application, glued together by the content has never been more popular, based media such as magazines and shared content experience. partly reflecting the explosion in the newspapers launching smart-device ways people can access it. apps, these forms of content could also The growing number of ways and become part of the overall media pack- Smart devices contexts in which people can experi- age—as part of a multisegment media spearheading change… ence video content is creating a blend bundle accessed via the media hub and The first signs of the socialized mul- of confusion, excitement, and choice for its connected screens. tiscreen future are already emerging. consumers. It’s also raising questions Some companies are already making But how is the consumer experiencing around the value proposition and pricing the early running in this direction, such them? The answer lies in the rocketing of TV-only content bundles—especially as Technicolor, with its MediaNavi and take-up of smart devices. given the advent of a rising generation M-GO multiscreen content platform, of savvy and increasingly urbanized Since the launch of the original iPad in whereby MediaNavi serves as the consumers who still love television but April 2010, tablets have brought home socialized and personalized hub for want more flexibility: first, in the ways to consumers—like no other device navigating and accessing the universe they access and pay for content and has—what the future of media might of content, and the M-GO app expands second, what content they get. look like. For the first time, consumers that access across a range of connected became willing to watch premium video Like previous generations, the new con- devices. With social media incorporated content on the go. And in addition to sumers are passionate about other media into the media hub concept, consum- cutting into PC sales, the tablet provides experiences as well as television: live ers can take the logical next step from a metaphor for the feel of a future with concerts, radio, magazines, books, and watching “everything whenever and ever-available mobile video and non- so on. But unlike previous generations, wherever I want” to having friends and video content. they demand, consume, and function family log in to share the experience in in a world of globally connected social real time. As soon as consumers held tablets, they media. And they’re increasingly adept could imagine a large one fixed on the liv- This could lead to an environment at incorporating the various elements ing room wall for “big” content and fam- where all content is streamed as a of content and connectivity into their ily viewing; a handy-size one for a decent cheap, easily available, cloud-based media consumption mix. All of this personal or social content experience on utility-style service, with the streamed points toward the multichannel, multi- the move; and a small one in the form of and shared live experience becoming content, multiexperience future: a con- a smartphone, for times when connec- the premium form of content. The digi- cept we’ve termed here the media hub, tivity, information, and immediacy are tal locker may also play a role, enabling wherein a mass of content is available for the priorities. Each device suits differ- consumers to store recorded content an agreed price on all devices and where ent content and contexts. But the key is remotely and access it from anywhere the live experience—be it US basketball that portability, accessibility to content, on any device. or FIFA World Cup football or Lady Gaga on-demand capability, high resolution, in concert—comes at a premium. In such a world, the multicontent, and acceptable screen size—all of those multidevice media hub could regain the formerly conflicting goals—have finally role that TV held as the nexus of the col- been reconciled. lective social experience from the 1950s through the 1990s. However, while the Industry overview | The end of the digital beginning 27
  • 29. …across broadcast and Consumer trends knock on …creating opportunities print media into B2B business models… for curators and B2B2C Smart devices bring transformational Consumers’ behavioral changes are also providers opportunities across EM segments. driving change in business-to-business For B2B information providers, the For example, TV companies could give (B2B) publishing. Most consumers are most direct and most sustainable way to consumers a customizable tablet/smart- members of the business workforce— maximize their proposition to advertis- phone app that brings up a consumer’s who are increasingly mobile as well as ers is to be a curator of information for own personal My Media on the TV, with accustomed to accessing information the target community. This information the consumer’s favorite shows, mov- via an ever-wider range of devices. They is often publicly available elsewhere: if ies, and apps. For instance, hotel guests expect the same immersive quality people have the time and inclination, could get their own personal channels and consistency of experience at work they can now trawl around to find a loaded straight up on the connected as in their private lives and are incor- mass of information on mergers-and- TVs in their rooms by pointing their porating social behaviors into their acquisitions deals on the Internet. But tablets at the TV. business behaviors. subscribers to the Financial Times’ mergermarket, for example, prefer to Tablets are also enabling print pub- For companies, these trends present pay mergermarket to act as their curator lishers to present consumers with a challenges in terms of security and for such information, by providing them value proposition previously lacking in access, but they also open up business with tailored, convenient deal data seg- those publishers’ online products, thus opportunities. One outcome is that mented by sector on their smart devices convincing consumers to pay for addi- corporations are setting up social net- as they travel to work. tional and premium content. Examples works to encourage collaboration and include the New York Times’ paid-for innovation. Another is that formerly fashion app called The Collection, print-based B2B information publishers which draws from a number of the are starting to view their businesses in newspaper’s products and repackages a different way. It’s no coincidence that them together stylishly. on its Web site, Wolters Kluwer of the Netherlands now calls itself “a global More generally, as the Outlook high- provider of information, software, and lights, tablets’ superior content experi- services” rather than a publisher. ence is enabling growing numbers of print publishers to harness rising digital This is a major shift. For B2B informa- revenues. E-books are claiming a ris- tion providers, the core value of their ing share of the paid-for book market. business used to lie in their original And more and more newspapers are product, such as a trade magazine or both launching apps and putting their directory, whether physical or online. content behind paywalls—often with a But today, these businesses’ real asset free incentive so as to win over commit- is the deeply engaged specialist com- ted print consumers. When Australia’s munity with deep domain expertise for Herald Sun launched its new paywall- whom they provide information and protected Web site and m-site alongside interaction, thereby acting as a gateway its iPad app in early 2012, for example, for advertisers. it offered an initial two-month free trial of its Digital Pass. 28 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016