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Vision 20:2020:
Nigeria & the Top20 Most
Competitive Economies




                   StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©
Vision 20:2020:
Nigeria & the Top 20 Most
 Competitive Economies
Vision 20:2020 is an articulation of the long-term
        20:
intent to launch Nigeria onto a path of sustained
social and economic progress and accelerate the
emergence of a truly prosperous and united Nigeria.

This Vision reflects the intent of the Federal Republic
of Nigeria to become one of the top twenty
economies in the world by the year 2020, with an
overarching growth target of no less than $900 billion
in GDP and a per capita income of no less than $4000
per annum.

This will not happen suddenly but by gradual
evaluation of where we are, now, and taking
progressive and proactive measures to be better.
How is Nigeria economy fairing now compared to the
Top 20 Global Competitive countries?

In this study; The World Economic Forum, in their
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) report of 2011 –
2012, have identified 20 top economies with a high
competitive index, this is used in comparison with
Nigeria economy GCI with the hope of finding
similarities and disparities, so as to know where the
National Technical Working Groups (NTWGs) can
concentrate efforts to measure up in the next 8years.
Methodology of Study:
The World Economic Forum (WEF); having
identified some 12 Pillars as metrics to measure
countries/economies      competitiveness,    the
average of each pillar for the Top20 economies
will be compared to that of Nigeria in order to
find:

- How far is Nigeria from Vision20:2020
- Is Vision20:2020 possible?
- What is the expected growth rate to achieve
  Vision 20:2020
- Any possible alliance with other country to quickly
  achieve this?
The 12 Pillars of GCI
    Institutions
    Infrastructure                 BASIC
                                   REQUIREMENTS
    Macroeconomic Environment
    Health and Primary Education
    Higher Education & Training
    Goods Market Efficiency
    Labor Market Efficiency        EFFICIENCY
    Financial Market Development   ENHANCERS

    Technological Readiness
    Market Size
    Business Sophistication        INNOVATION &
                                   SOPHISTICATION
    Innovation                     FACTORS
The Top20 Economies are:
  Rank   Top 20 Economies   2012*          2011              2010            2009            2008
  1      Switzerland        5.74            5.63              5.6             5.61            5.62
  2      Singapore          5.63            5.48              5.55            5.53            5.45
  3      Sweden             5.61            5.56              5.51            5.53            5.54
  4      Finland            5.47            5.37              5.43            5.5             5.49
  5      United States      5.43            5.43              4.92            5.74            5.67
  6      Germany            5.41            5.39              5.37            5.46            5.51
  7      Netherlands        5.41            5.33              5.32            5.41             5.4
  8      Denmark            5.40            5.32              5.46            5.58            5.55
  9      Japan              5.40            5.37              5.37            5.38            5.43
  10     United Kingdom     5.39            5.25              5.19            5.3             5.41
  11     Hong Kong SAR      5.36            5.3               5.22            5.33            5.37
  12     Canada             5.33            5.3               5.33            5.37            5.34
  13     Taiwan, China      5.26            5.21              5.2             5.22            5.25
  14     Qatar              5.24            5.1               4.95            4.83            4.63
  15     Belgium            5.20            5.07              5.09            5.14             5.1
  16     Norway             5.18            5.14              5.17            5.22             5.2
  17     Saudi Arabia       5.17            4.95              4.75            4.72            4.55
  18     France             5.14            5.13              5.13            5.22            5.18
  19     Austria            5.14            5.09              5.13            5.23            5.23
  20     Australia          5.11            5.11              5.15            5.2             5.17
                              *Every year, each country is rated on a scale of 1 – 7 using the 12 pillars
Pillar 1: Institution
Rank Country/Economy                       2010      2011        2012         The Average Score Index of
  1     Switzerland                         5.85      5.77        5.78
  2     Singapore                           6.15      6.13        6.11        the Top20 economies is
  3     Sweden                              6.10      6.12        6.06
  4     Finland                             6.05      5.96        5.98
                                                                              approximately 5.47.
  5     United States                       4.81      4.67        4.64
  6     Germany                             5.50      5.50        5.27
  7     Netherlands                         5.66      5.54        5.61        Nigeria with a current 3.31
  8     Denmark                             6.08      5.84        5.94
  9     Japan                               4.90      5.08        5.18        score index and 4% growth
  10    United Kingdom                      5.07      5.28        5.34
  11    Hong Kong SAR                       5.62      5.73        5.63        rate from previous year
  12
  13
        Canada
        Taiwan China
                                            5.50
                                            4.73
                                                      5.55
                                                      4.82
                                                                  5.57
                                                                  4.94
                                                                              would achieve a score index
  14    Qatar                               5.69      5.55        5.39        of 4.53 by Year 2020 which
  15    Belgium                             4.98      4.98        5.03
  16    Norway                              5.88      5.82        5.74        is far below the average
  17    Saudi Arabia                        4.84      5.22        5.47
  18    France                              4.95      5.04        5.00        score index of the Top20 –
  19    Austria                             5.55      5.42        5.24        assuming their economic growth
  20    Australia                           5.60      5.49        5.39
                                                                              remain the same.
        Top20 Average Score                5.4755    5.4755     5.4655

 111    Nigeria                             3.34      3.18       3.31

   In reality and by calculation; becoming one of the Top20
      economies by Pillar 1: Institution is not practicable
       Rank – rank of each country in 2012 report   2010, 2011, 2012 represent Score index for each country on a scale of 1 – 7.
Pillar 2: Infrastructure
Rank Country/Economy         2010    2011     2012    The Average Score Index of
  1    Switzerland           6.35     6.09    6.15
  2    Singapore             6.35     6.22    6.33    the Top20 economies over
  3    Sweden                5.82     5.76    5.74
  4    Finland               5.87     5.59    5.62
                                                      3yrs is approximately 5.776.
  5    United States         5.92     5.65    5.68
  6    Germany               6.59     6.43    6.35
  7    Netherlands           5.74     5.93    6.02    Nigeria Infrastructure is indirectly
  8    Denmark               5.83     5.69    5.89    proportional to its economic
  9    Japan                 5.83     5.69    5.69
  10   United Kingdom        5.43     5.88    6.09    status, it however grew by 9%
  11   Hong Kong SAR         6.54     6.77    6.71    from 2011 to 2012 having fallen by
  12   Canada                5.93     5.8     5.88
  13   Taiwan China          5.6      5.63    5.62    12% the year before.
  14   Qatar                 4.58     5.24    5.17
  15   Belgium               5.58     5.53    5.65
  16   Norway                4.95       5     4.95    If a growth rate of 5% is
  17   Saudi Arabia          4.63     5.07    5.31    maintained, by year 2020 Nigeria
  18   France                6.52     6.24    6.3
  19   Austria               5.89     5.56    5.64    would not have attained a score
  20   Australia             5.19     5.44    5.43    index worth any of the Top20. This
       Top20 Average Score   5.757   5.7605   5.811
                                                      is however possible by year 2032
 135 Nigeria                 2.29    2.02     2.21

       Nigeria current Infrastructure – Electricity, Communication,
        Transportation Systems among others – ranks 135 of 142
                                economies
Pillar 3: Macroeconomic Environment
 Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012  The Average Score Index of
   1  Switzerland      5.63 5.81  4.9
   2  Singapore        5.24  5.2 5.39 the Top20 economies over
   3
   4
      Sweden
      Finland
                        5.7
                       5.78
                            5.61
                            5.58
                                  4.2
                                 6.45
                                      3yrs is approximately 5.34.
  5    United States         4.31     4.39     4.49
  6    Germany               5.28     5.32     5.34
  7    Netherlands           5.21     5.29     5.62
                                                       Between 2010 and 2012, Nigeria
  8    Denmark               5.71     5.56     6.28    Macroeconomic       Environment
  9    Japan                 4.22     4.12     6.09    index has dropped by 27%. The
  10   United Kingdom         4.6     4.76      5.7
  11   Hong Kong SAR         5.67     5.67     5.06    current index of 3.96 is far
  12   Canada                5.24     5.14     5.39    below any of the Top20 index for
  13   Taiwan China          5.34     5.36      4.6
  14   Qatar                 5.73     5.71     4.54    year 2012, with a 5% growth
  15   Belgium               4.74     4.56     5.71    rate, it is expected that Nigeria
  16   Norway                5.94     5.43      6.4
  17   Saudi Arabia          5.86     5.35     5.43
                                                       would measure up with at least
  18   France                4.72     4.98     6.26    the 5.34 average score before
  19   Austria               5.22      5.3     6.08
                             5.56     5.55     6.22
                                                       2020.
  20   Australia
       Top20 Average Score   5.285   5.2345   5.5075

 121 Nigeria                 5.43    4.25     3.96

      Of a truth, the 2010 score index is probably one of the best
  achievement for Nigeria, placing her at the 20th position for Pillar 3.
Pillar 4: Health and Primary Education
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011    2012
 1    Switzerland            6.1    6.56    6.75    The Average Score Index of
                            6.22    6.67    6.32
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                6.22    6.41    6.52
                                                    the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland               6.46    6.75    6.28    3yrs is approximately 6.319.
 5    United States         5.88    6.12    6.05
 6    Germany               6.01    6.32    6.54
 7    Netherlands           6.22    6.53    6.51    The Health index of the Nigeria
 8    Denmark               6.31    6.36    6.53
 9    Japan                 6.13    6.52    5.78    state is less than 50% that of the
 10   United Kingdom        6.07     6.4    6.51    Top20; however, there has been a
 11   Hong Kong SAR         5.76    6.29    6.58
 12   Canada                 6.3     6.6    6.24
                                                    considerable growth of 1% from
 13   Taiwan China           6.2     6.5    6.37    2010 to 2011 and 9% from 2011
 14   Qatar                  6.3    6.43    6.42    to 2012. With an assumed growth
 15   Belgium               6.43    6.75    6.76
 16   Norway                6.16    6.33    6.28    rate of 5% for subsequent years,
 17   Saudi Arabia          5.37    5.64    6.27    by 2020 Nigeria will still not
 18   France                6.22    6.42    6.25
 19   Austria               6.14    6.41    6.35    measure up to the any of the
 20   Australia             6.18    6.49    6.65    Top20.
      Top20 Average Score   6.134   6.425   6.398

 140 Nigeria                2.96    3.00    3.28

      This Pillar correlates the fact that the average Nigerian is
  estimated to live for about 47years ranking 140 of 142 countries.
Pillar 5: Higher Education & Training
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland            5.6     5.79     5.77    The Average Score Index of
                            5.62     5.77     5.81
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                5.76      5.9     6.09
                                                      the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland               5.97     6.06     5.75    3yrs is approximately 5.448.
 5    United States         5.57     5.64      5.8
 6    Germany               5.07     5.33     5.49
 7    Netherlands           5.49     5.63     5.13    Vision 20 2020 for Pillar 5 is
 8    Denmark                5.9     5.84     5.66
 9    Japan                 5.06     5.28     5.59    statistically not realistic. With
 10   United Kingdom        5.17     5.34     4.81    the current trend of meager
 11   Hong Kong SAR         4.74     4.94     5.62
 12   Canada                 5.5     5.66     4.62
                                                      investment in the Education
 13   Taiwan China          5.43     5.63     5.47    sector, it will take Nigeria at
 14   Qatar                 4.93     4.84     5.73    least 2024 to achieve a score
 15   Belgium               5.52     5.71     5.38
 16   Norway                5.48     5.59     5.27    index worth competing with the
 17   Saudi Arabia          4.29     4.55     5.75    Top20.
 18   France                 5.3     5.36     5.24
 19   Austria               5.19     5.38     5.64
 20   Australia             5.33     5.53     5.57
      Top20 Average Score   5.346   5.4885   5.5095

 114 Nigeria                3.03     2.99     3.18

   The best of our Tertiary Institutions ranks only with other African
        countries with no place in the first 1000 in the world.
Pillar 6: Goods Market Efficiency
Rank Country/Economy        2010     2011     2012
 1    Switzerland            5.24     5.31     5.06    The Average Score Index of
                             5.77     5.65     4.89
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                 5.27      5.3     4.98
                                                       the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland                4.98     4.92     4.69    3yrs is approximately 5.088.
 5    United States          5.13     4.81      4.8
 6    Germany                5.01     4.97     5.17
 7    Netherlands            5.24
                             5.21
                                      5.17
                                       5.1
                                               4.84
                                               5.24
                                                       By 2016 – with the current
 8    Denmark
 9    Japan                  5.06     5.06     5.25    score index and growth rate
 10   United Kingdom         4.97     4.96     5.13
 11   Hong Kong SAR          5.54     5.57     5.12    of 5% - Nigeria will strongly
 12   Canada                 5.08     5.11     5.06    compete with any of the
 13   Taiwan China            5.1     5.09     4.56
 14   Qatar                  4.96      5.1     4.97    Top20.
 15   Belgium                5.11     5.08     4.89
 16   Norway                 4.95     4.95     5.04
 17   Saudi Arabia           4.79     5.11     4.79
 18   France                 4.86     4.69     5.41
 19   Austria                5.14       5      5.21
 20   Australia               5.2     5.02     5.57
      Top20 Average Score   5.1305   5.0985   5.0335

 73   Nigeria                4.24     3.97     4.18

      This appears to be one of the Pillars that Nigeria would not
              have to wait till 2020 to realize her dreams
Pillar 7: Labor Market Efficiency
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland           5.78     5.13    5.86
 2    Singapore             5.91     4.75    4.82    The Average Score Index of
      Sweden                4.91     4.64    4.94
 3
 4    Finland               4.85     5.42    5.39
                                                     the Top20 economies over
 5    United States         5.76     5.47    5.95    3yrs is approximately 5.069.
 6    Germany               4.33     4.85    4.89
 7    Netherlands           4.81     4.47    5.67
 8    Denmark               5.53      4.4    4.84    The Labour Market Efficiency
 9    Japan                  5.1     5.82    5.43
 10   United Kingdom        5.22     5.08    4.57
                                                     score index of Nigeria will be
 11   Hong Kong SAR         5.59     4.83    5.04    ranked among the Top20 before
 12   Canada                 5.4     4.97    4.86    year 2016 if the current growth
 13   Taiwan China          4.85     5.03    5.36
 14   Qatar                 5.04     4.42    4.41    rate is sustained or improved
 15   Belgium               4.66     5.92    4.76    upon.
 16   Norway                4.99     4.89    5.04
 17   Saudi Arabia          4.33     5.92    4.61
 18   France                4.39     4.74    4.38
 19   Austria               4.71     5.29    4.71
 20   Australia              5.2     5.63    5.57
      Top20 Average Score   5.068   5.0835   5.055

 70   Nigeria               4.24     3.97    4.18
Pillar 8: Financial Market Development
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland           5.15     5.34     4.76    The Average Score Index of
                            5.91     5.76     4.64
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                5.17     5.15     4.64
                                                      the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland               5.33     5.38     5.46    3yrs is approximately 5.054.
 5    United States         4.96     4.67     4.87
 6    Germany               4.68     4.62     4.86
 7    Netherlands            4.9
                            5.31
                                     4.71
                                     4.94
                                              5.38
                                              5.35
                                                      There is a downward trend
 8    Denmark
 9    Japan                 4.65     4.61     5.06    of -9% and -3% rate from
 10   United Kingdom        4.87     4.73     4.84
 11   Hong Kong SAR         5.95     5.85      5.2    2010 to 2011 and 2011 to
 12   Canada                5.25     5.16     5.01    2012 respectively.
 13   Taiwan China           4.4     4.63       5
 14   Qatar                 4.69     4.91     4.94
 15   Belgium               4.86     4.64     5.34    If there is an upturn of this
 16   Norway                5.29     5.35     4.96
 17   Saudi Arabia          4.44     4.83     4.54    downward trend with an
 18   France                4.95     4.96     5.78    assumed 5% growth rate, Vision
 19   Austria               4.85     4.74     5.24
 20   Australia             5.51     5.45     5.84
                                                      20 2020 for pillar 8 is still a
      Top20 Average Score   5.056   5.0215   5.0855   possibility.
 86   Nigeria               4.37     3.99     3.89
Pillar 9: Technological Readiness
Rank Country/Economy        2010     2011     2012
 1    Switzerland            5.24     5.31     5.06    The Average Score Index of
                             5.77     5.65     4.89
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                 5.27      5.3     4.98
                                                       the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland                4.98     4.92     4.69    3yrs is approximately 5.476.
 5    United States          5.13     4.81      4.8
 6    Germany                5.01     4.97     5.17
 7    Netherlands            5.24     5.17     4.84    Technological readiness of an
 8    Denmark                5.21      5.1     5.24
 9    Japan                  5.06     5.06     5.25    economy is greatly dependent
 10   United Kingdom         4.97     4.96     5.13    upon      solid      infrastructural
 11   Hong Kong SAR          5.54     5.57     5.12
 12   Canada                 5.08     5.11     5.06
                                                       development; Nigeria ranks 135
 13   Taiwan China            5.1     5.09     4.56    of 142 in 2012 GCI for
 14   Qatar                  4.96      5.1     4.97    Infrastructure, little wonder the
 15   Belgium                5.11     5.08     4.89
 16   Norway                 4.95     4.95     5.04    Technological readiness of its
 17   Saudi Arabia           4.79     5.11     4.79    economy is at a very low ebb.
 18   France                 4.86     4.69     5.41
 19   Austria                5.14       5      5.21
 20   Australia               5.2     5.02     5.57    With 5% growth rate; 2024 is
      Top20 Average Score   5.1305   5.0985   5.0335
                                                       expected to be one of the
 106 Nigeria                 2.91     3.04     3.08    Top20.
Pillar 10: Market Size
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland           4.56     5.12    4.56    The Average Score Index of
                            4.53     4.59    4.59
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                4.63     4.77    4.15
                                                     the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland               4.23     5.46    4.21    3yrs is approximately 5.035.
 5    United States         6.93     4.25    4.51
 6    Germany               6.02     4.15     4.3
 7    Netherlands           5.12     5.76    4.76    Nigeria is the 7th largest Nation in
 8    Denmark               4.32     6.01     5.1
 9    Japan                 6.17     4.74    5.44    terms of population but not
 10   United Kingdom        5.82     6.11    4.92    economy. This Pillar is currently
 11   Hong Kong SAR         4.73      5.1     5.1
 12   Canada                5.47     4.34    3.86
                                                     Nigeria’s     most      competitive
 13   Taiwan China          5.16     3.75    5.77    advantage, however a larger
 14   Qatar                 3.61     4.97      6     percentage of the populace are
 15   Belgium               4.83     4.51    4.58
 16   Norway                4.35     4.58    6.12    not     benefiting     from     this
 17   Saudi Arabia          4.88     4.54    4.78    advantage due to inherent
 18   France                5.78     5.15    5.74
 19   Austria               4.62      5.8    5.21    challenge in basic development at
 20   Australia              5.1     6.93    6.92    the grass root and national level.
      Top20 Average Score   5.043   5.0315   5.031

 34   Nigeria               4.49     4.65    4.59    With 5% economic growth rate;
                                                     by 2015 Nigeria will rank among
                                                     Top20 economies
Pillar 11: Business Sophistication
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland           5.81     5.81     5.3    The Average Score Index of
                             5.2      5.1    5.46
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                5.66     5.88    5.91
                                                     the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland                5.4     5.29    5.04    3yrs is approximately 5.323.
 5    United States         5.65      5.4    5.35
 6    Germany               5.82     5.82    5.58
 7    Netherlands           5.54
                            5.51
                                     5.55
                                     5.41
                                             4.67
                                             5.82
                                                     The indexes for Business
 8    Denmark
 9    Japan                 5.89     5.92    5.11    Sophistication  is   quite
 10   United Kingdom        5.24     5.32    5.23
 11   Hong Kong SAR         5.19     5.01    4.91    encouraging; this goal is
 12   Canada                5.12     5.03    5.53    realizable by 2019 if 5%
 13   Taiwan China          5.22     5.17    5.14
 14   Qatar                 4.55     4.85    5.41    growth rate could be
 15   Belgium               5.28     5.24     5.4
 16   Norway                5.12     5.17    5.27
                                                     achieved in subsequent
 17   Saudi Arabia          4.61     4.91    5.66    years.
 18   France                 5.3     5.18    4.99
 19   Austria               5.54     5.46    5.83
 20   Australia             4.79     4.67    5.13
      Top20 Average Score   5.322   5.3095   5.337

 64   Nigeria                4       3.79    3.96
Pillar 12: Innovation
Rank Country/Economy        2010    2011     2012
 1    Switzerland           5.56      5.6    4.83    The Average Score Index of
                            5.09     5.04    4.79
 2
 3
      Singapore
      Sweden                5.39     5.45    5.59
                                                     the Top20 economies over
 4    Finland               5.53     5.56    4.53    3yrs is approximately 4.900.
 5    United States         5.77     5.65    5.57
 6    Germany               5.11     5.19    5.03
 7    Netherlands           4.79     4.77    4.48    The innovative ability of
 8    Denmark               5.04     4.89    5.77
 9    Japan                 5.51     5.52    4.16    Nigeria according to the
 10   United Kingdom         4.6     4.65    5.27    current score index is about
 11   Hong Kong SAR         3.86     3.91    5.07
 12   Canada                 4.8     4.87     5.1    60% of the average Score index
 13   Taiwan China          5.28     5.29    4.72    of the Top20 economies.
 14   Qatar                 3.65     4.11    4.94
 15   Belgium               4.62     4.59    5.72
 16   Norway                4.53     4.49    4.69    The least innovative country
 17   Saudi Arabia           3.7     3.92    5.39
 18   France                 4.5     4.48    4.18    being Japan and the most is
 19   Austria               4.46     4.48    5.76    Denmark
 20   Australia             4.43     4.41    5.33
      Top20 Average Score   4.811   4.8435   5.046

 82   Nigeria               3.06     2.87    3.01
Current Growth Trend of the Top20 Economies




                                                                Macroeconomi
                                                                c Environment




                                                                                                  Goods Market




                                                                                                                                                                              Sophistication
                                              Infrastructure




                                                                                                                 Labor Market




                                                                                                                                              Technological
                                                                                                                                Development
                                                                                Education &
% Growth from




                                                                                                                                                                Market Size
                             Institutions




                                                                                Health and




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Innovation
                                                                                                                                              Readiness
                                                                                Education




                                                                                                  Efficiency


                                                                                                                 Efficiency
                                                                                                                                Financial




                                                                                                                                                                              Business
                                                                                Training
2011 - 2012




                                                                                Primary




                                                                                                                                Market
                                                                                Higher
Country/Economy
Switzerland                0.17%             0.99%             8.09%            -0.46%    0.17%   -1.32%          0.51%          0.19%        12.50%          -0.66%           0.17%           3.04%
Singapore                 -0.33%             1.77%             19.62%           -0.30%    0.00%   -1.42%         -1.01%          1.39%        10.28%           1.11%           0.59%           5.75%
Sweden                    -0.98%            -0.35%             8.38%            -0.94%   -1.53%   -1.70%         -1.43%          1.75%        2.78%            0.22%          -0.85%           5.69%
Finland                    0.34%             0.54%              2.33%            0.15%    0.50%   -0.61%          1.86%         -0.74%        11.22%           0.00%           2.08%           2.88%
United States             -0.64%             0.53%              2.28%           -1.14%   -1.24%   -0.21%         -1.07%         4.28%          2.55%          -0.14%          -0.93%           -1.42%
Germany                   -4.18%            -1.24%              2.07%           -0.79%   7.50%    -3.62%          0.23%         -1.73%        4.66%           -0.17%          -2.75%           3.85%
Netherlands                1.26%             1.52%              0.95%            0.15%    0.53%    0.00%          0.21%         3.18%          2.34%           0.00%           0.54%           5.45%
Denmark                    1.71%            3.51%              -3.06%           -1.89%   -1.54%   -0.78%         -1.46%          1.42%        10.32%          -0.94%           2.22%           4.29%
Japan                      1.97%             0.00%              1.94%            0.00%   -0.19%   -1.58%         -0.79%          0.65%        3.90%            0.16%          -0.17%            1.27%
United Kingdom             1.14%            3.57%              -4.62%            0.31%    2.43%    0.20%          1.32%         4.44%          8.96%          -0.52%           1.69%           6.24%
Hong Kong SAR             -1.75%            -0.89%             10.41%           -0.64%   3.85%    -2.87%         -2.58%         -1.20%        2.52%            0.42%          -0.40%           6.91%
Canada                     0.36%             1.38%             -1.56%           -0.30%   -1.24%    0.20%          0.18%          0.78%        5.06%           -0.37%          -2.39%           4.11%
Taiwan China               2.49%            -0.18%             6.34%             0.15%    0.18%    0.79%         -0.63%         4.54%          0.79%           1.17%           1.16%           -0.38%
Qatar                     -2.88%            -1.34%             12.08%           -2.33%   -4.55%   -1.18%         -3.38%          1.02%        6.76%           2.93%           8.66%            14.11%
Belgium                    1.00%             2.17%             7.46%             0.00%    0.70%   -0.39%         -0.65%         2.59%         11.11%           0.21%           1.15%           5.23%
Norway                    -1.37%            -1.00%             18.78%           -0.79%   -1.79%   -5.25%         -1.61%          2.06%        9.35%           -0.92%          -2.51%            0.89%
Saudi Arabia              4.79%             4.73%              13.83%            2.48%   5.71%    2.74%          3.39%           4.76%         3.84%          -1.01%          4.07%            6.12%
France                    -0.79%             0.96%             -7.63%           -0.78%   -2.24%   -2.77%         -2.01%          0.81%        6.63%           -0.35%          -0.77%           5.36%
Austria                   -3.32%             1.44%              1.70%           -1.40%    0.00%   -2.20%          0.21%         -2.11%        6.09%           -0.22%           0.00%           6.92%
Australia                 -1.82%            -0.18%              1.26%            0.31%    1.63%   -3.59%         -1.75%         -1.28%        2.82%           -0.39%           0.00%            1.59%

                  Nigeria 4.09% 9.41%                          -6.82%           9.33%    6.35% 5.29% 0.23% -2.51% 1.32% -1.29% 4.49% 4.88%

 From above, the lower score indexes have higher probability of achieving at least a 2.5% growth rate. This gives Nigeria the
 possibility of achieving her Vision 20:2020 goals if she can achieve more than 5% yearly growth rate per Pillar.
Alliances
 The countries with most probable alliance are Saudi
 Arabia and Qatar. Saudi Arabia achieved positive growth
 in 10 of the 12 Pillars while Qatar achieved 5.

 On the other hand, Nigeria could partner with individual
 country based on their area of competitive advantage;
 Singapore & Norway for growth in her Macroeconomic
 Environment, Belgium & Finland for Technologies
 Readiness, Saudi Arabia & Australia/UK for Health and
 Primary Education, etc. – pg20.

 All countries except Taiwan, China have appreciable
 growth in Technological Readiness
Catching up with the Top20 Economies
 No.               Pillar             @5%            @4%         @3%       @2%            @1%
 1     Institutions                   2023           2025        2029       2037          2062
 2     Infrastructure                 2031           2036        2044       2059          2100
 3     Macroeconomic Environment      |--------------------Already achieved--------------------|
 4     Health and Primary Education   2027           2031        2037       2049          2086
 5     Higher Education & Training    2024           2027        2032       2041          2069
 6     Goods Market Efficiency        2016           2017        2019       2022          2032
 7     Labor Market Efficiency        2015           2016        2017       2019          2026
 8     Financial Market Development   2015           2016        2017       2020          2027
 9     Technological Readiness        2026           2029        2034       2045          2077
 10    Market Size                    2015           2015        2016       2018          2032
 11    Business Sophistication        2018           2020        2022       2027          2041
 12    Innovation                     2022           2024        2028       2035          2058

For instance; In subsequent years, if Nigeria experience a 5% growth rate in
Pillar 2: Institution, by 2023 Nigeria will be ranked among the Top20
economies.
Similarly; at 5% growth rate, Nigeria would only rank among Top20 economies in
Macroeconomic Environment, Goods Market Efficiency, Labor Market Efficiency,
Financial Market Development, Market Size and Business Sophistication by 2020.
Data source:
- The World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/
- WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2011 – 2012
- WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11
- WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2009-2010fullreport
- Nigeria Vision 20:2020, Economic Transformation Blueprint


Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah

                                               Analysis by: Wale Micaiah
                                               e: walegate@yahoo.com
                                               m: 08078001800
                                               b: walemicaiah.blog.com
                                               w. www.statisense.info

                                                           StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©

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Gci top20 economy & nigeria

  • 1. Vision 20:2020: Nigeria & the Top20 Most Competitive Economies StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©
  • 2. Vision 20:2020: Nigeria & the Top 20 Most Competitive Economies
  • 3. Vision 20:2020 is an articulation of the long-term 20: intent to launch Nigeria onto a path of sustained social and economic progress and accelerate the emergence of a truly prosperous and united Nigeria. This Vision reflects the intent of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to become one of the top twenty economies in the world by the year 2020, with an overarching growth target of no less than $900 billion in GDP and a per capita income of no less than $4000 per annum. This will not happen suddenly but by gradual evaluation of where we are, now, and taking progressive and proactive measures to be better.
  • 4. How is Nigeria economy fairing now compared to the Top 20 Global Competitive countries? In this study; The World Economic Forum, in their Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) report of 2011 – 2012, have identified 20 top economies with a high competitive index, this is used in comparison with Nigeria economy GCI with the hope of finding similarities and disparities, so as to know where the National Technical Working Groups (NTWGs) can concentrate efforts to measure up in the next 8years.
  • 5. Methodology of Study: The World Economic Forum (WEF); having identified some 12 Pillars as metrics to measure countries/economies competitiveness, the average of each pillar for the Top20 economies will be compared to that of Nigeria in order to find: - How far is Nigeria from Vision20:2020 - Is Vision20:2020 possible? - What is the expected growth rate to achieve Vision 20:2020 - Any possible alliance with other country to quickly achieve this?
  • 6. The 12 Pillars of GCI Institutions Infrastructure BASIC REQUIREMENTS Macroeconomic Environment Health and Primary Education Higher Education & Training Goods Market Efficiency Labor Market Efficiency EFFICIENCY Financial Market Development ENHANCERS Technological Readiness Market Size Business Sophistication INNOVATION & SOPHISTICATION Innovation FACTORS
  • 7. The Top20 Economies are: Rank Top 20 Economies 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 1 Switzerland 5.74 5.63 5.6 5.61 5.62 2 Singapore 5.63 5.48 5.55 5.53 5.45 3 Sweden 5.61 5.56 5.51 5.53 5.54 4 Finland 5.47 5.37 5.43 5.5 5.49 5 United States 5.43 5.43 4.92 5.74 5.67 6 Germany 5.41 5.39 5.37 5.46 5.51 7 Netherlands 5.41 5.33 5.32 5.41 5.4 8 Denmark 5.40 5.32 5.46 5.58 5.55 9 Japan 5.40 5.37 5.37 5.38 5.43 10 United Kingdom 5.39 5.25 5.19 5.3 5.41 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.36 5.3 5.22 5.33 5.37 12 Canada 5.33 5.3 5.33 5.37 5.34 13 Taiwan, China 5.26 5.21 5.2 5.22 5.25 14 Qatar 5.24 5.1 4.95 4.83 4.63 15 Belgium 5.20 5.07 5.09 5.14 5.1 16 Norway 5.18 5.14 5.17 5.22 5.2 17 Saudi Arabia 5.17 4.95 4.75 4.72 4.55 18 France 5.14 5.13 5.13 5.22 5.18 19 Austria 5.14 5.09 5.13 5.23 5.23 20 Australia 5.11 5.11 5.15 5.2 5.17 *Every year, each country is rated on a scale of 1 – 7 using the 12 pillars
  • 8. Pillar 1: Institution Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 The Average Score Index of 1 Switzerland 5.85 5.77 5.78 2 Singapore 6.15 6.13 6.11 the Top20 economies is 3 Sweden 6.10 6.12 6.06 4 Finland 6.05 5.96 5.98 approximately 5.47. 5 United States 4.81 4.67 4.64 6 Germany 5.50 5.50 5.27 7 Netherlands 5.66 5.54 5.61 Nigeria with a current 3.31 8 Denmark 6.08 5.84 5.94 9 Japan 4.90 5.08 5.18 score index and 4% growth 10 United Kingdom 5.07 5.28 5.34 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.62 5.73 5.63 rate from previous year 12 13 Canada Taiwan China 5.50 4.73 5.55 4.82 5.57 4.94 would achieve a score index 14 Qatar 5.69 5.55 5.39 of 4.53 by Year 2020 which 15 Belgium 4.98 4.98 5.03 16 Norway 5.88 5.82 5.74 is far below the average 17 Saudi Arabia 4.84 5.22 5.47 18 France 4.95 5.04 5.00 score index of the Top20 – 19 Austria 5.55 5.42 5.24 assuming their economic growth 20 Australia 5.60 5.49 5.39 remain the same. Top20 Average Score 5.4755 5.4755 5.4655 111 Nigeria 3.34 3.18 3.31 In reality and by calculation; becoming one of the Top20 economies by Pillar 1: Institution is not practicable Rank – rank of each country in 2012 report 2010, 2011, 2012 represent Score index for each country on a scale of 1 – 7.
  • 9. Pillar 2: Infrastructure Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 The Average Score Index of 1 Switzerland 6.35 6.09 6.15 2 Singapore 6.35 6.22 6.33 the Top20 economies over 3 Sweden 5.82 5.76 5.74 4 Finland 5.87 5.59 5.62 3yrs is approximately 5.776. 5 United States 5.92 5.65 5.68 6 Germany 6.59 6.43 6.35 7 Netherlands 5.74 5.93 6.02 Nigeria Infrastructure is indirectly 8 Denmark 5.83 5.69 5.89 proportional to its economic 9 Japan 5.83 5.69 5.69 10 United Kingdom 5.43 5.88 6.09 status, it however grew by 9% 11 Hong Kong SAR 6.54 6.77 6.71 from 2011 to 2012 having fallen by 12 Canada 5.93 5.8 5.88 13 Taiwan China 5.6 5.63 5.62 12% the year before. 14 Qatar 4.58 5.24 5.17 15 Belgium 5.58 5.53 5.65 16 Norway 4.95 5 4.95 If a growth rate of 5% is 17 Saudi Arabia 4.63 5.07 5.31 maintained, by year 2020 Nigeria 18 France 6.52 6.24 6.3 19 Austria 5.89 5.56 5.64 would not have attained a score 20 Australia 5.19 5.44 5.43 index worth any of the Top20. This Top20 Average Score 5.757 5.7605 5.811 is however possible by year 2032 135 Nigeria 2.29 2.02 2.21 Nigeria current Infrastructure – Electricity, Communication, Transportation Systems among others – ranks 135 of 142 economies
  • 10. Pillar 3: Macroeconomic Environment Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 The Average Score Index of 1 Switzerland 5.63 5.81 4.9 2 Singapore 5.24 5.2 5.39 the Top20 economies over 3 4 Sweden Finland 5.7 5.78 5.61 5.58 4.2 6.45 3yrs is approximately 5.34. 5 United States 4.31 4.39 4.49 6 Germany 5.28 5.32 5.34 7 Netherlands 5.21 5.29 5.62 Between 2010 and 2012, Nigeria 8 Denmark 5.71 5.56 6.28 Macroeconomic Environment 9 Japan 4.22 4.12 6.09 index has dropped by 27%. The 10 United Kingdom 4.6 4.76 5.7 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.67 5.67 5.06 current index of 3.96 is far 12 Canada 5.24 5.14 5.39 below any of the Top20 index for 13 Taiwan China 5.34 5.36 4.6 14 Qatar 5.73 5.71 4.54 year 2012, with a 5% growth 15 Belgium 4.74 4.56 5.71 rate, it is expected that Nigeria 16 Norway 5.94 5.43 6.4 17 Saudi Arabia 5.86 5.35 5.43 would measure up with at least 18 France 4.72 4.98 6.26 the 5.34 average score before 19 Austria 5.22 5.3 6.08 5.56 5.55 6.22 2020. 20 Australia Top20 Average Score 5.285 5.2345 5.5075 121 Nigeria 5.43 4.25 3.96 Of a truth, the 2010 score index is probably one of the best achievement for Nigeria, placing her at the 20th position for Pillar 3.
  • 11. Pillar 4: Health and Primary Education Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 6.1 6.56 6.75 The Average Score Index of 6.22 6.67 6.32 2 3 Singapore Sweden 6.22 6.41 6.52 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 6.46 6.75 6.28 3yrs is approximately 6.319. 5 United States 5.88 6.12 6.05 6 Germany 6.01 6.32 6.54 7 Netherlands 6.22 6.53 6.51 The Health index of the Nigeria 8 Denmark 6.31 6.36 6.53 9 Japan 6.13 6.52 5.78 state is less than 50% that of the 10 United Kingdom 6.07 6.4 6.51 Top20; however, there has been a 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.76 6.29 6.58 12 Canada 6.3 6.6 6.24 considerable growth of 1% from 13 Taiwan China 6.2 6.5 6.37 2010 to 2011 and 9% from 2011 14 Qatar 6.3 6.43 6.42 to 2012. With an assumed growth 15 Belgium 6.43 6.75 6.76 16 Norway 6.16 6.33 6.28 rate of 5% for subsequent years, 17 Saudi Arabia 5.37 5.64 6.27 by 2020 Nigeria will still not 18 France 6.22 6.42 6.25 19 Austria 6.14 6.41 6.35 measure up to the any of the 20 Australia 6.18 6.49 6.65 Top20. Top20 Average Score 6.134 6.425 6.398 140 Nigeria 2.96 3.00 3.28 This Pillar correlates the fact that the average Nigerian is estimated to live for about 47years ranking 140 of 142 countries.
  • 12. Pillar 5: Higher Education & Training Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.6 5.79 5.77 The Average Score Index of 5.62 5.77 5.81 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.76 5.9 6.09 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 5.97 6.06 5.75 3yrs is approximately 5.448. 5 United States 5.57 5.64 5.8 6 Germany 5.07 5.33 5.49 7 Netherlands 5.49 5.63 5.13 Vision 20 2020 for Pillar 5 is 8 Denmark 5.9 5.84 5.66 9 Japan 5.06 5.28 5.59 statistically not realistic. With 10 United Kingdom 5.17 5.34 4.81 the current trend of meager 11 Hong Kong SAR 4.74 4.94 5.62 12 Canada 5.5 5.66 4.62 investment in the Education 13 Taiwan China 5.43 5.63 5.47 sector, it will take Nigeria at 14 Qatar 4.93 4.84 5.73 least 2024 to achieve a score 15 Belgium 5.52 5.71 5.38 16 Norway 5.48 5.59 5.27 index worth competing with the 17 Saudi Arabia 4.29 4.55 5.75 Top20. 18 France 5.3 5.36 5.24 19 Austria 5.19 5.38 5.64 20 Australia 5.33 5.53 5.57 Top20 Average Score 5.346 5.4885 5.5095 114 Nigeria 3.03 2.99 3.18 The best of our Tertiary Institutions ranks only with other African countries with no place in the first 1000 in the world.
  • 13. Pillar 6: Goods Market Efficiency Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.24 5.31 5.06 The Average Score Index of 5.77 5.65 4.89 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.27 5.3 4.98 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 4.98 4.92 4.69 3yrs is approximately 5.088. 5 United States 5.13 4.81 4.8 6 Germany 5.01 4.97 5.17 7 Netherlands 5.24 5.21 5.17 5.1 4.84 5.24 By 2016 – with the current 8 Denmark 9 Japan 5.06 5.06 5.25 score index and growth rate 10 United Kingdom 4.97 4.96 5.13 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.54 5.57 5.12 of 5% - Nigeria will strongly 12 Canada 5.08 5.11 5.06 compete with any of the 13 Taiwan China 5.1 5.09 4.56 14 Qatar 4.96 5.1 4.97 Top20. 15 Belgium 5.11 5.08 4.89 16 Norway 4.95 4.95 5.04 17 Saudi Arabia 4.79 5.11 4.79 18 France 4.86 4.69 5.41 19 Austria 5.14 5 5.21 20 Australia 5.2 5.02 5.57 Top20 Average Score 5.1305 5.0985 5.0335 73 Nigeria 4.24 3.97 4.18 This appears to be one of the Pillars that Nigeria would not have to wait till 2020 to realize her dreams
  • 14. Pillar 7: Labor Market Efficiency Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.78 5.13 5.86 2 Singapore 5.91 4.75 4.82 The Average Score Index of Sweden 4.91 4.64 4.94 3 4 Finland 4.85 5.42 5.39 the Top20 economies over 5 United States 5.76 5.47 5.95 3yrs is approximately 5.069. 6 Germany 4.33 4.85 4.89 7 Netherlands 4.81 4.47 5.67 8 Denmark 5.53 4.4 4.84 The Labour Market Efficiency 9 Japan 5.1 5.82 5.43 10 United Kingdom 5.22 5.08 4.57 score index of Nigeria will be 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.59 4.83 5.04 ranked among the Top20 before 12 Canada 5.4 4.97 4.86 year 2016 if the current growth 13 Taiwan China 4.85 5.03 5.36 14 Qatar 5.04 4.42 4.41 rate is sustained or improved 15 Belgium 4.66 5.92 4.76 upon. 16 Norway 4.99 4.89 5.04 17 Saudi Arabia 4.33 5.92 4.61 18 France 4.39 4.74 4.38 19 Austria 4.71 5.29 4.71 20 Australia 5.2 5.63 5.57 Top20 Average Score 5.068 5.0835 5.055 70 Nigeria 4.24 3.97 4.18
  • 15. Pillar 8: Financial Market Development Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.15 5.34 4.76 The Average Score Index of 5.91 5.76 4.64 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.17 5.15 4.64 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 5.33 5.38 5.46 3yrs is approximately 5.054. 5 United States 4.96 4.67 4.87 6 Germany 4.68 4.62 4.86 7 Netherlands 4.9 5.31 4.71 4.94 5.38 5.35 There is a downward trend 8 Denmark 9 Japan 4.65 4.61 5.06 of -9% and -3% rate from 10 United Kingdom 4.87 4.73 4.84 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.95 5.85 5.2 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 12 Canada 5.25 5.16 5.01 2012 respectively. 13 Taiwan China 4.4 4.63 5 14 Qatar 4.69 4.91 4.94 15 Belgium 4.86 4.64 5.34 If there is an upturn of this 16 Norway 5.29 5.35 4.96 17 Saudi Arabia 4.44 4.83 4.54 downward trend with an 18 France 4.95 4.96 5.78 assumed 5% growth rate, Vision 19 Austria 4.85 4.74 5.24 20 Australia 5.51 5.45 5.84 20 2020 for pillar 8 is still a Top20 Average Score 5.056 5.0215 5.0855 possibility. 86 Nigeria 4.37 3.99 3.89
  • 16. Pillar 9: Technological Readiness Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.24 5.31 5.06 The Average Score Index of 5.77 5.65 4.89 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.27 5.3 4.98 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 4.98 4.92 4.69 3yrs is approximately 5.476. 5 United States 5.13 4.81 4.8 6 Germany 5.01 4.97 5.17 7 Netherlands 5.24 5.17 4.84 Technological readiness of an 8 Denmark 5.21 5.1 5.24 9 Japan 5.06 5.06 5.25 economy is greatly dependent 10 United Kingdom 4.97 4.96 5.13 upon solid infrastructural 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.54 5.57 5.12 12 Canada 5.08 5.11 5.06 development; Nigeria ranks 135 13 Taiwan China 5.1 5.09 4.56 of 142 in 2012 GCI for 14 Qatar 4.96 5.1 4.97 Infrastructure, little wonder the 15 Belgium 5.11 5.08 4.89 16 Norway 4.95 4.95 5.04 Technological readiness of its 17 Saudi Arabia 4.79 5.11 4.79 economy is at a very low ebb. 18 France 4.86 4.69 5.41 19 Austria 5.14 5 5.21 20 Australia 5.2 5.02 5.57 With 5% growth rate; 2024 is Top20 Average Score 5.1305 5.0985 5.0335 expected to be one of the 106 Nigeria 2.91 3.04 3.08 Top20.
  • 17. Pillar 10: Market Size Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 4.56 5.12 4.56 The Average Score Index of 4.53 4.59 4.59 2 3 Singapore Sweden 4.63 4.77 4.15 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 4.23 5.46 4.21 3yrs is approximately 5.035. 5 United States 6.93 4.25 4.51 6 Germany 6.02 4.15 4.3 7 Netherlands 5.12 5.76 4.76 Nigeria is the 7th largest Nation in 8 Denmark 4.32 6.01 5.1 9 Japan 6.17 4.74 5.44 terms of population but not 10 United Kingdom 5.82 6.11 4.92 economy. This Pillar is currently 11 Hong Kong SAR 4.73 5.1 5.1 12 Canada 5.47 4.34 3.86 Nigeria’s most competitive 13 Taiwan China 5.16 3.75 5.77 advantage, however a larger 14 Qatar 3.61 4.97 6 percentage of the populace are 15 Belgium 4.83 4.51 4.58 16 Norway 4.35 4.58 6.12 not benefiting from this 17 Saudi Arabia 4.88 4.54 4.78 advantage due to inherent 18 France 5.78 5.15 5.74 19 Austria 4.62 5.8 5.21 challenge in basic development at 20 Australia 5.1 6.93 6.92 the grass root and national level. Top20 Average Score 5.043 5.0315 5.031 34 Nigeria 4.49 4.65 4.59 With 5% economic growth rate; by 2015 Nigeria will rank among Top20 economies
  • 18. Pillar 11: Business Sophistication Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.81 5.81 5.3 The Average Score Index of 5.2 5.1 5.46 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.66 5.88 5.91 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 5.4 5.29 5.04 3yrs is approximately 5.323. 5 United States 5.65 5.4 5.35 6 Germany 5.82 5.82 5.58 7 Netherlands 5.54 5.51 5.55 5.41 4.67 5.82 The indexes for Business 8 Denmark 9 Japan 5.89 5.92 5.11 Sophistication is quite 10 United Kingdom 5.24 5.32 5.23 11 Hong Kong SAR 5.19 5.01 4.91 encouraging; this goal is 12 Canada 5.12 5.03 5.53 realizable by 2019 if 5% 13 Taiwan China 5.22 5.17 5.14 14 Qatar 4.55 4.85 5.41 growth rate could be 15 Belgium 5.28 5.24 5.4 16 Norway 5.12 5.17 5.27 achieved in subsequent 17 Saudi Arabia 4.61 4.91 5.66 years. 18 France 5.3 5.18 4.99 19 Austria 5.54 5.46 5.83 20 Australia 4.79 4.67 5.13 Top20 Average Score 5.322 5.3095 5.337 64 Nigeria 4 3.79 3.96
  • 19. Pillar 12: Innovation Rank Country/Economy 2010 2011 2012 1 Switzerland 5.56 5.6 4.83 The Average Score Index of 5.09 5.04 4.79 2 3 Singapore Sweden 5.39 5.45 5.59 the Top20 economies over 4 Finland 5.53 5.56 4.53 3yrs is approximately 4.900. 5 United States 5.77 5.65 5.57 6 Germany 5.11 5.19 5.03 7 Netherlands 4.79 4.77 4.48 The innovative ability of 8 Denmark 5.04 4.89 5.77 9 Japan 5.51 5.52 4.16 Nigeria according to the 10 United Kingdom 4.6 4.65 5.27 current score index is about 11 Hong Kong SAR 3.86 3.91 5.07 12 Canada 4.8 4.87 5.1 60% of the average Score index 13 Taiwan China 5.28 5.29 4.72 of the Top20 economies. 14 Qatar 3.65 4.11 4.94 15 Belgium 4.62 4.59 5.72 16 Norway 4.53 4.49 4.69 The least innovative country 17 Saudi Arabia 3.7 3.92 5.39 18 France 4.5 4.48 4.18 being Japan and the most is 19 Austria 4.46 4.48 5.76 Denmark 20 Australia 4.43 4.41 5.33 Top20 Average Score 4.811 4.8435 5.046 82 Nigeria 3.06 2.87 3.01
  • 20. Current Growth Trend of the Top20 Economies Macroeconomi c Environment Goods Market Sophistication Infrastructure Labor Market Technological Development Education & % Growth from Market Size Institutions Health and Innovation Readiness Education Efficiency Efficiency Financial Business Training 2011 - 2012 Primary Market Higher Country/Economy Switzerland 0.17% 0.99% 8.09% -0.46% 0.17% -1.32% 0.51% 0.19% 12.50% -0.66% 0.17% 3.04% Singapore -0.33% 1.77% 19.62% -0.30% 0.00% -1.42% -1.01% 1.39% 10.28% 1.11% 0.59% 5.75% Sweden -0.98% -0.35% 8.38% -0.94% -1.53% -1.70% -1.43% 1.75% 2.78% 0.22% -0.85% 5.69% Finland 0.34% 0.54% 2.33% 0.15% 0.50% -0.61% 1.86% -0.74% 11.22% 0.00% 2.08% 2.88% United States -0.64% 0.53% 2.28% -1.14% -1.24% -0.21% -1.07% 4.28% 2.55% -0.14% -0.93% -1.42% Germany -4.18% -1.24% 2.07% -0.79% 7.50% -3.62% 0.23% -1.73% 4.66% -0.17% -2.75% 3.85% Netherlands 1.26% 1.52% 0.95% 0.15% 0.53% 0.00% 0.21% 3.18% 2.34% 0.00% 0.54% 5.45% Denmark 1.71% 3.51% -3.06% -1.89% -1.54% -0.78% -1.46% 1.42% 10.32% -0.94% 2.22% 4.29% Japan 1.97% 0.00% 1.94% 0.00% -0.19% -1.58% -0.79% 0.65% 3.90% 0.16% -0.17% 1.27% United Kingdom 1.14% 3.57% -4.62% 0.31% 2.43% 0.20% 1.32% 4.44% 8.96% -0.52% 1.69% 6.24% Hong Kong SAR -1.75% -0.89% 10.41% -0.64% 3.85% -2.87% -2.58% -1.20% 2.52% 0.42% -0.40% 6.91% Canada 0.36% 1.38% -1.56% -0.30% -1.24% 0.20% 0.18% 0.78% 5.06% -0.37% -2.39% 4.11% Taiwan China 2.49% -0.18% 6.34% 0.15% 0.18% 0.79% -0.63% 4.54% 0.79% 1.17% 1.16% -0.38% Qatar -2.88% -1.34% 12.08% -2.33% -4.55% -1.18% -3.38% 1.02% 6.76% 2.93% 8.66% 14.11% Belgium 1.00% 2.17% 7.46% 0.00% 0.70% -0.39% -0.65% 2.59% 11.11% 0.21% 1.15% 5.23% Norway -1.37% -1.00% 18.78% -0.79% -1.79% -5.25% -1.61% 2.06% 9.35% -0.92% -2.51% 0.89% Saudi Arabia 4.79% 4.73% 13.83% 2.48% 5.71% 2.74% 3.39% 4.76% 3.84% -1.01% 4.07% 6.12% France -0.79% 0.96% -7.63% -0.78% -2.24% -2.77% -2.01% 0.81% 6.63% -0.35% -0.77% 5.36% Austria -3.32% 1.44% 1.70% -1.40% 0.00% -2.20% 0.21% -2.11% 6.09% -0.22% 0.00% 6.92% Australia -1.82% -0.18% 1.26% 0.31% 1.63% -3.59% -1.75% -1.28% 2.82% -0.39% 0.00% 1.59% Nigeria 4.09% 9.41% -6.82% 9.33% 6.35% 5.29% 0.23% -2.51% 1.32% -1.29% 4.49% 4.88% From above, the lower score indexes have higher probability of achieving at least a 2.5% growth rate. This gives Nigeria the possibility of achieving her Vision 20:2020 goals if she can achieve more than 5% yearly growth rate per Pillar.
  • 21. Alliances The countries with most probable alliance are Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Saudi Arabia achieved positive growth in 10 of the 12 Pillars while Qatar achieved 5. On the other hand, Nigeria could partner with individual country based on their area of competitive advantage; Singapore & Norway for growth in her Macroeconomic Environment, Belgium & Finland for Technologies Readiness, Saudi Arabia & Australia/UK for Health and Primary Education, etc. – pg20. All countries except Taiwan, China have appreciable growth in Technological Readiness
  • 22. Catching up with the Top20 Economies No. Pillar @5% @4% @3% @2% @1% 1 Institutions 2023 2025 2029 2037 2062 2 Infrastructure 2031 2036 2044 2059 2100 3 Macroeconomic Environment |--------------------Already achieved--------------------| 4 Health and Primary Education 2027 2031 2037 2049 2086 5 Higher Education & Training 2024 2027 2032 2041 2069 6 Goods Market Efficiency 2016 2017 2019 2022 2032 7 Labor Market Efficiency 2015 2016 2017 2019 2026 8 Financial Market Development 2015 2016 2017 2020 2027 9 Technological Readiness 2026 2029 2034 2045 2077 10 Market Size 2015 2015 2016 2018 2032 11 Business Sophistication 2018 2020 2022 2027 2041 12 Innovation 2022 2024 2028 2035 2058 For instance; In subsequent years, if Nigeria experience a 5% growth rate in Pillar 2: Institution, by 2023 Nigeria will be ranked among the Top20 economies. Similarly; at 5% growth rate, Nigeria would only rank among Top20 economies in Macroeconomic Environment, Goods Market Efficiency, Labor Market Efficiency, Financial Market Development, Market Size and Business Sophistication by 2020.
  • 23. Data source: - The World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/ - WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2011 – 2012 - WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11 - WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2009-2010fullreport - Nigeria Vision 20:2020, Economic Transformation Blueprint Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah Analysis by: Wale Micaiah e: walegate@yahoo.com m: 08078001800 b: walemicaiah.blog.com w. www.statisense.info StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©