Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 5

International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science

Advanced technology for
sustainable development
- Analysis of fusion from sustainability -
Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Aug 13, 2011

Contents
- technological, environmental,biolobical and social risk
- radiation, tritium, cancer and life
- Sustainability issue

Question: International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Can technology make people happy?

－people (individual) regards energy as a risk for their life.

Energy ( in fact, all the technology) must be analyzed for risk and
benefit.

What does technology have to do?
- to avoid risks for sustainability

But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
DAMAGE the environment, person, and social system.

- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.

Evaluation of Energy

Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.

・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of
social acceptance.
－All the energy technologies are evaluated from the
aspect of future social risk.
－ “Effect” cannot always be measured in monetary terms.
－ Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
→Investment for research and development can be justified
from the expected effect to the future society.

Damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Materials by Dr. S. Machi

No. 1, 2, 3 in operation,
No. 4, 5, 6 inspection/maintenance
14:46 3/11 Great East Japan Earthquake
All reactors stopped. External power lost.
Emergency Core Cooling System Activated
Tsunami(~15m) attacked
15:41 Emergency powers lost,
16:36 Cooling lost. After heat of fuels damages the core.
20:50 Evacuation started
Reaction with fuel and water generate Hydrogen.
15:36 3/12 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No1 reactor.
11:01 3/14 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No3 reactor.
06:10 3/15 Building of No2 reactor exploded.. Fire at No4 reactor

Overview of Mark-I Type BWR (Fukushima Unit-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)

Reactor Building
(R/B)
Spent Fuel Pool

Dry Well Reactor Pressure
Pressure Vessel (RPV)
Containment
Vessel (PCV)

Source: http://nei.cachefly.net/static/images/BWR_illastration.jpg
Suppression Chamber

Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p9, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011

Major Events at Unit No.1 (4/4)
-Injection of Seawater using by Fire Pump
-Venting of S/C for Depressurizing PCV

Seawater was poured
into the RPV using by
the exiting fire pump

Venting of S/C in order
to depressurize the
PCV


Accident Situation at the Spent Fuel Pool

Lack of Cooling
Capability

Decrease of Water Level
in the Spent Fuel Pool

Exposing of Fuel Rods

Fuel Failure

Generation of Hydrogen
and Explosion R/B Isolation
Cooling Water
System

Radioactive Emission control

Facility controls
radioactive Back
emission (Bq/y) ground
plume
environment
facility
plant dose
soil
Ground
Sea Site boundary water
water
fish Effect is evaluated as dose(Sv)
confinement
e.g. 1 mSv/y normal, public
Minimize unnecessary dose 20mSv, 100mSv…
As Low As Practically Achieved

Analyzing plume

Radiation level in atmosphere by prefecture
May 8, 2011 （Unit : μSv/h）

Hokkaido
0.04 Miyagi
Background level; Tokyo: 0.078
0.028-0.079 (630km)
(90km)
Tokyo
0.04 Iwaki
(220km) 0.25 Fukushima
(43km) 1.49
Osaka (61km)
0.08
(400km) 100km FukushimaⅠ
NPS
200km FukushimaⅡN
PS

Sources : Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology
Fukushima prefectural government

Activity on the surface
Surveyed.

Nuclides analyzed.

Cumulative external dose
Estimated.

(life style considered.)

- Children dose <10mSv

Nuclides in the environment

• Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for
fission facilities, mainly by plume model.

• Radio activity is released by the accident

• Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away.
External dose estimated.

• Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and
food chain.

• Dose is estimated from the activity.

• Risks on the health is estimated from the collective dose.

Radiation may kill. But how likely is it?

Radiation risk

• We (life-forms ) on the earth have lived with radiation
for billions of years.

• Radiation safety is well controlled, but

• Modern science and technology have significantly
changed our dose.

…..fusion may change it again.

Environmental tritium, history

1.Natural production by cosmic ray
Discovered in 1949 in the environment

2.Atmospheric nuclear tests in 1950s to 1960s

First bomb in 1945（Nevada）、first fusion bomb in 1954

Atmospheric nuclear test ban treaty in 1963

（global fallout, tracer for air mass, seawater etc）

3.Peaceful use of nuclear energy
Nuclear power station in Japan（55）、world（434）、nuclear fuel
treatment facility
4.Nuclear fusion reactor （a huge amount, local emission）

15
Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University

Environmental tritium

1．Cosmic ray 2. Nuclear bomb
Natural T≒2.7 kg
1-1.3 EBq 240 EBq (185-240)
14 N+n —> 3H+12 C
16 O+n —> 3H+14 N
World inventory (2010)
1-1.3 EBq (1) + 17 EBq (13-17)

3. Consumer products 3. Nuclear stations 4. Fusion
0.4 EBq y-1 0.02 EBq y-1 reactor
(0.3-0.4) (0.01-0.02) 1000MW
Earth crust (～5kg)
6 Li+n—> 3 H+ 4 He
238 U+n—> 3 H+Products EBq=1018 16

Tritium in the Water in Japan

250
200 Fallout from
nuclear
150 detonation
Bq/L

Tritium concentration (Bq/L)
100
Fukuoka, Japan
50
2.5

0 2.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1.5
We experienced
200 times high 1.0
Tritium level.
0.5

0.0
1980 1985 1990 199517
year

Tritium in the Water in Japan 2

4.0 1982 river
1983 lake
concentration（Bq/L)

3.5 2005 river
2005 lake
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

32 34 36 38 40 42 44

latitude Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University

Cedar
100 Wine
Rain
Concentration (Bq/L)

Fukuoka,
japan
10

1
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

Environmental tritium is trapped by plants, 19

Nuclides in the environment
Tutorial courseof Sustainable Science
Institute

• Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for
fission facilities

• Major concern is accident

• Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away.

• Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and
food chain.

• Dose is easily estimated from the activity.

• Isotopic contents in the environment is not usually a
problem.
(---All different for tritium!)

Impact pathway of nuclides

N O RM A L / W IN D D IF F U SI ON
A C C ID EN T A L
F A C IL IT Y NUCLIDE PLU ME
R EL EA SE

A T M OSP H ER E A T M OSP HE R E

DRY W ET D E POSI T IO N
D E POS IT I ON W A SH OU T
SU R F A C E W A T ER F IS H
PL A N T
SU R F A C E S O I L P L AN T BODY
SURFACE
GR A Z IN G A NI MA L
SH A L L OW SO IL

D E EP S OIL D R IN K IN G WA T ER
IN H A L A T IO N
SK IN IN J ES TI ON
A B S OR PT I ON
H U MA N BO D Y H U M A N BO D Y DNA

E FF E C T IV E D OSE E QU IVA L E NT

Understanding the impact pathway D O S E E F F EC T

Is required to evaluate the effect. Cause cancer?

Tritium in the environment

• Tritiated water is a major concern

• Many of the facilities discharge by normal operation.

• Tritium is diluted by natural water.

• Biological processes changes chemical forms. i.e.
H2 – HTO – OBT (organically bound tritium)

• Natural background and environmental recycling

• Specific for food, environment, culture and habits

• Dose may not be a good measure of damage
--range of beta is very short. (~0.5mm)

Radiation dose

World average Japanese average

medical medical
Fall out natural

natural Fall out
other.
Power plant etc.

jett flight etc.

Fall out : falling radioactive materials from
nuclear detonation test

Risk of generation technology

(mEURO/kWh) （ExternE 1999）

Annual deaths worldwide from
various causes

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

“environmentally friendly” energy kills.

Distances
travelled to
collect
fuelwood in
rural Tanzania;
the average
load is around
20 kg

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2006

がん死亡のリスク
Cancer risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Cause of cancers
• radiation comes from medical and natural sources.
• controlled risks cannot be the major reason of cancer
medical treatment Cause of cancer deaths
Industrial Geophysical (incl. radon)
products
infection
pollution
smoking
occupation
birth al

Food additives
alcohol
Food

Dolland Peto, 1981

Carcinogenic foods

Foods can cause cancers by their ingredients
• carcinogenesis is evaluated experimentally, with analysis
based on LNT.

Mainly
natural

Foods can
also prevent
cancer, that
is not
considered
here.
Ames and Gold, 1998

Comparison of risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000
 One safe action Wine ５００ｃｃ hepatocirrhosis
2 days in New York Air pollution
can cause １６ｋｍ by bicycle accident
another risk. ４８０km by car accident
１６００km flight accident
 Some of the １００００km flight Cosmic ray
2 months in brick building Radon (natural)
safety X-ray examination Radiation dose
measures are 2 months Living with smoker cancer
30 cans diet coke cancer
unreasonable. 150 year living in ３０ｋｍfrom
Nuclear plant Radiation dose
 Artificial risks 2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation
1 year drinking tap water halogen
are well 1.4 cigarette cancer
controlled now. 3 hours in coal mine accident
wilson, 1979
Fukushima accident 100~1000 times larger

Risk of Generation Technology

Electricity Kills Coal – world average 161
• Hydro：Dam construction. Coal – China 278
Coal – USA 15
Dam distruction in China(1975)。
Oil 36 (36% of world energy)
• Fire：Explosion, drop, Natural Gas 4
mechanical. Coal mining. Peat 12
Solar (rooftop) 0.44
Pollution.
Wind 0.15
• Biomass：Air Pollution, timber. Hydro 0.10 (europe)
• Nuclear:Mihama,5. Uranium Hydro - world 1.4
(171,000 Banqiao dead)
mining, Radon from U. Nuclear 0.04
Chernobyl 28+19, cancer 15. (incl. Chernobyl 1986
possible cancer 100000? assuming 4000 death)
[death/Twh] (by WHO data,etc.)
• Solar:drop from roofs

Risk for death
Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Causes of death in Japan 1980 2002
tuberculosis 5.5 1.8
cancer 139.1 241.7
• 1/3 died of cancer diabetes 7.3 10
cardiac 106.2 121
• Suicide and accident, other hipertension 13.7 4.5
stroke 139.5 103.4
than sickness pneumonia 28.4 69.4
asthma 5.5 3
• Young people are killed by
Stomach
4.8 3.9
accident, and themselves ulcer
hepatitis 16.3 12.8
（in US, murder is a major Renal failure 6.1 14.4
senility 27.6 18
cause.） accident 25.1 30.7
traffic 11.4 9.3
suicide 17.7 23.8
Deaty per year per 100,000
厚生労働省、人口動態統計 total 621.4 779.6

Death risk
Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000
Wine ５００ｃｃ hepatocirrhosis
 One safe action 2 days in New York Air pollution
can cause another １６ｋｍ by bicycle accident
４８０km by car accident
risk. １６００km flight accident
 Some of the １００００km flight Cosmic ray
2 months in brick building Radon (natural)
safety measures
X-ray examination Radiation dose
are unreasonable. 2 months Living with smoker cancer
 Artifical risks 30 cans diet coke cancer
150 year living in ３０ｋｍfrom
are well Nuclear plant Radiation dose
controlled now. 2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation
1 year drinking tap water halogen
1.4 cigarette cancer
3 hours in coal mine accident
wilson, 1979

Energy supply Issue

Shortage / blackout risk
Strict electricity saving and peak shifting are planned.

Blackout is unpredictable, but demand/supply balance is
reported by real time announcement.

Local generation / Storage will mitigate the difficulty.

Long term strategy
Renewables are expected and will be strongly supported.
Use of fire-power is not favored.

Vulnerability increases. Robust grid is needed by supporting
instability of the sources.

Electric Grid in Japan –Structure –

Comb structure due to geographical reason Hokkaido
5,345MW
Utility Name 579MW
DC connection
Max. demand (~2003)
Largest Unit (Nuclear) 600MW

Hokuriku Tohoku
West Japan Grid 5,508MW 14,489MW
60Hz, ~100GW 540MW 825MW

600MW
Kyushu Chugoku Kansai Chubu Tokyo
17,061MW 12,002MW 33,060MW 27,500MW 64,300MW
820MW
1,180MW 1,180MW 1,380MW 1,356MW
Shikoku 300MW
5,925MW East Japan Grid
890MW 50Hz, ~80GW
~50GW

Giga Blackout

All the generators on the grids are synchronized
→ Exactly same amount generated as demanded.
Sudden increase of demand or unstable generator
• Demands exceed generation capacity
• Frequency drops (~0.1%)
time(sec)
0
• Load to the generators -0.05
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

• Generator disconnected -0.1

frequency(Hz)
-0.15 Physics Today, vol.55, No.4
-0.2 (2002) 23MW/sec
Frequency drop by load
-0.25
77MW/sec
230MW/sec

Chain reaction kills the grid. Small grid, large load,
-0.3

→unstable renewables can Fast change should be
-0.35

Avoided.
initiate the blackout.

Daily Peaks

• For near term, leveling of Solar
the load is important. Wind
Hydro
• Local generators, co-
generation and batteries Load
Leveling variable
preferred. Fire
needed
• Increased renewable Hydro
jeopardizes grid Base
Nuclear
• For future, substitute of Fire(Coal)
load
.
fire power needed. Hydro
→only load leveling power 0 6 12 18 24(h)

is preferred.

Fluctuation of renewable
Required
1.8
―　Insolation Intensity
―　DC Power
Stabilizing
5/14 (Cloudy) 0.18 240
Spring (4/1-6/30)
Insolation Intensity [kW/m2]

Electrical Energy [kWh/day]
1.6
1.4
power 0.16
0.14
220
200

DC Power [kW]
180
1.2 0.12 160
1.0 0.10 140
0.8 0.08 120
0.6 0.06 100
0.4 0.04 80
60
0.2 0.02 40
0.0 0.00 20
-0.2 -0.02 0
4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/29
Time Date

Change of solar in a day Daily change of solar

・unpredictable change of generating power of renewable is large
・time constant of seconds
・controlled power to compensate this change needed
・connecting to grid decreases amplitude but not time constant
・fire power can provide only slow change (~5%/min)

Future low carbon Systems

fusion Fire Electricity must be powered by
nuclear
(fade out) Carbon-free sources
Both large grid and local
systems are needed.
Large scale grid
Fuel

Battery, generators and
fuel cells Stabilizes
Local systems
fluctuation by renewables.
Large scale supply of fuels for
Solar cell Fuel cells needed.
Fuel
Cells Battery
generators
PHV,EV

Carbon-free elcecticty systems

Power Max.pow capacity[
units area[m2] Vol.[m3]
[kW] er[kW] kWh]
Solar 633 566.2 - - 4740 -
NaS-1 364.7 420 2625 7 - 16.7
SOFC - 988 - - - 5.6
計 998 1974 2625 7 4740 22.2
SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Fine SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Rain
Large scale grid Large scale grid
1200 SOFC

Electrical Energy [kWh/h]
1200 SOFC
Electrical Energy [kWh/h]

NaS-2 NaS-2
NaS-1
1000 NaS-1 1000 Solar
Solar

800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
-200 -200
-400 -400
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Time [h] Time [h]

Governing risks of technology

Externality analysis
・All the risks and benefits of the technology can be analyzed from the
Externality aspects.
・Many of those effects are predictable, and converted to monetary terms.
・Some of the risks are evaluated as the death probability from statistics.
・Investment for technology development must consider the effect of the
product from this risk and benefit analysis, and risk mitigation cost.
・Reasonable investment for the development and mitigation/prevention
can be evaluated quantitatively.

For the governance of technology

Technology and its effect are predictable, and reasonable investment can
be planned,
However, many of the development and risk mitigation are far from it.

we can find many bad examples.

Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 5

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