Ibm welcome and cognitive 20161020 v4

Jim Spohrer (IBM)
San Jose, CA
Thursday October 20, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/ibm-welcome-and-cognitive-20161020-v4
10/20/2016 1
IBM Welcome & Cognitive Future

IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
2

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
3

Machine
Learning
Natural
Language
Processing
High
Performance
Computing
Knowledge
Representation
and Reasoning
Question
Answering
Unstructured
Information

10/20/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 5

Brief History
of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference
• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak
• 1990 – AI Winter
• 1997 – Deep Blue
• 1997 – 2011 Real-World
• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &
• True North Brain Chip
• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
10/20/2016
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
6

Definitions: AI vs IA
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
7
AI is Artificial Intelligence, or
intelligence in machines (smart machines)
IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or
people thinking and working together with smart machines.
IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and
the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or
more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)”
Cognition as a Service (CaaS):
AI building blocks for IA solutions

Augmenting Workers

Startup
Companies

10/20/2016
development
10
Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles

Occupations = Many Tasks
10/20/2016
development
11

Watson Discovery Advisor
10/20/2016
development
12
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models
10/20/2016
development
13

$5M Prize
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
14

10/20/2016
development
15
I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
16
So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

Societal Grand Challenges
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
17
Solving these would mean we are smarter,
but would they mean we are wiser?

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
18

High School Senior: Anish Krishnan
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
19

IBM in Silicon Valley:
From Punch Cards….
10/20/2016
development
20
On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children,
among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special
train that carried them across the continent to establish
new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant
Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.

10/20/2016
development
21

IBM in Silicon Valley:
To Brain Chips….
10/20/2016
development
22

What types of digital cognitive systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
• Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something
important in your personal or professional lives
• Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone
votes
• Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for
health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make
better choices, find what you are looking for, move around
more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT
support, learn about important public policy goals and make
better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

Types
• Tool
• Assistant
• Collaborator
• Coach
• Mediator

Types: Progression of models and capabilities
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
tool assistant collaborator coach mediator

Build: 10 million minutes of experience

Build:
Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation

10/20/2016
development
30
I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

Learning to program:
My first program
10/20/2016
development
31
Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
32
Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
33

Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
34

IBM Image Tagging
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
35

Courses
2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
2035
– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
2055
– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
– Most people have 100 digital workers.
10/20/2016 36

10/20/2016 37
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

What exists in 2016?
10/20/2016
development
38
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

Partnership for AI formed

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
40

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
41
What might Reality 2.0 look like?

10/20/2016
development
42

10/20/2016
development
43

How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
10/20/2016 44
What might it look like?

Computing: Then, Now, Projected
10/20/2016 45
2035
2055

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
10/20/2016 47
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts

Reality 2.0 Service Platform:
polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
48
Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x

10/20/2016
development
49

10/20/2016
development
50
Wise Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

Two assertions
• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.
– Agree/disagree?
• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.
– Agree/disagree?
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
51
Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?

IBM Cloud Bluemix:
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
52

What is Industry 4.0?
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
53

History of the idea: Mirror Worlds
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
54

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
55
Why is this relevant?

I am still very skeptical…
but tell me more….
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
56

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
57

Managers: Courage Required….
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
58

Talent required, but…
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
59

Industry 4.0
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
60

CyberPhysical Systems?
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
61

Industry 4.0
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
62

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
63

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
64

Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’
performance across their life-cycles
– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product
performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.
– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service
– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for
service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional
Recirculation Service System
– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”
– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

In Summary
10/20/2016
development
68
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

10/20/2016
development
69
Explain external
phenomena

10/20/2016
development
70
Explain internal
phenomena

10/20/2016
development
71
Explain
value co-creation
phenomena

10/20/2016
development
72
Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems

Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
10/20/2016
development
73
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:
Improving learning and performance
• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)
– Better models of concepts
– Better models of learners
• 2x from Learning technology (tools)
– Guided learning paths
– Elimination of “thrashing”
• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)
– More you know, faster you go
– Advanced organizers
• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)
– Longer lives and longer careers
– Keeps “learning-mode” activated
• 2x from Early learning (time)
– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach
– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)
• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)
– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions
– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:
Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators
Many disciplines
Many sectors
Many regions/cultures
(understanding & communications)
Deepinonesector
Deepinoneregion/culture
Deepinonediscipline

Future-Ready T-Shapes
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
76

Brief History
of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference
1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
1988 – Expert Systems Peak
1990 – AI Winter
1997 – Deep Blue
1997 – 2011 Real-World
2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
2014 – Watson Business Unit &
True North Brain Chip
2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
10/20/2016
development
77

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
10/20/2016
development
78

The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
10/20/2016
development
79

10/20/2016
development
80
Future of Skills

T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
81

10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
82
CSIG

Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy

Dedication: Doug Engelbart
Father of the mouse and
augmentation theory
10/20/2016
development
84

10/20/2016 85
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

But this stuff is still really hard…
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
86

10/20/2016
development
88

Cyber-Social-Learning-Systems
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
August 29, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csls-20160821-v1
10/20/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems
89

Today’s Talk: Cyber-Social-Learning-
Systems• What is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on CSLS?
– Augmented Intelligence (IA) via digital cognitive systems
– White House OSTP Response(s)
• Other topics to think about:
– What are more of the implications of digital cognitive systems?
• Tool > Assistant > Collaborator > Coach > Mediator
• Transformation > Experience > Data > Software > Hardware
– What does social intelligence require? Episodic Memory?
– What is the impact of augmented reality on CSLS?
– What are possible connections to service systems science
(SSME+DAPP)?
– What type of adaptive innovator with growth mindset needed
(T-shapes)?

Augmented Intelligence
• Tool
• Assistant
•
Collaborat
or
• Coach
• Mediator

White House OSTP Response(s)
• AI for public good
• Social & economic implications
• Education to harness AI
• Research questions and gaps
• Data sets and model sets
• Multidisciplinary research
• Role of incentives and prizes
• Safety and control protocols
• Legal and governance issues

In Summary
10/20/2016
development
93
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

Backup Slides
• Understanding Cognitive Systems

Understanding
Cognitive Systems
Jim Spohrer (IBM), August 25, 2016
CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) Speaker
Series
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/understanding_20
160825_v3
10/20/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems
95

Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive
Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?
– biological
– technological
– types of digital cognitive systems
• How to…
– build them?
– understand them?
– work with them?
• Steps toward a next generation cognitive
curriculum…

But first…. Cognitive Science, a young
field
• Society
– cognitivesciencesociety.org
• People
– Founders: Roger Schank, Donald Norman,
Allan Collins
– Others: David Rumelhart, Herbert Simon,
Allen Newell
– Today: Patrick Langley, Wayne Gray,
Kenneth Forbus, Ashok Goel, Paul Maglio,
etc.
• Systems Conference
– cogsys.org
– (JCS wishes this was part of HICSS)

Advances in Cognitive Systems -
cogsys.org

Google Search: August 26, 2016

Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive
Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?
– biological
– technological
– types of digital cognitive systems
• How to…
– build them?
– understand them?
– work with them?
• Steps toward a next generation cognitive
curriculum…

What is a cognitive system (entity)?

What is a digital cognitive system
(entity)?

What types of digital cognitive
systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
– Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do
something important in your personal or professional
lives
– Team to design it and advocate for it, and then
everyone votes
– Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen
for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and
make better choices, find what you are looking for,
move around more effectively, provide emotional
support, provide IT support, learn about important
public policy goals and make better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

Types
• Tool
• Assistant
•
Collaborat
or
• Coach
• Mediator

Types: Progression of models and
capabilities
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++

Build: Hardware < Software < Data <
Experience

Understand them…

Work with…

Next generation cognitive curriculum

Backup slides
• Service systems - http://service-
science.info/archives/3368

What is service science?
• IBM initiated effort to establish a
multidisciplinary field to study
service systems … with a focus on
people-centered, IT-enabled service
innovations for business and society
– based on service-dominant logic
– service = value co-creation
– IT-enabled service architectures
– service systems (socio-technical
systems for win-win value co-creation)
• IBM helped establish
– computer science (1945-present)
– service science (2005-present)
Service systems are dynamic configurations of
resources (people, technology, organizations,
and information) interconnected by
value propositions, internally and externally.
Examples:
- macro: cities, states, nations
- meso: hospitals, universities, businesses
- micro: households, families, individuals
Reference:
Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007)
Steps toward a science of service systems.
IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).

What is service science?
• Now over 500 universities globally teach a more
multidisciplinary approach to service innovation,
including:
– Service management and marketing
– Service engineering and operations
– Service design and arts
– Service public policy and economics
– Service computing and informatics
• SSME + DAPP =
Service Science Management Engineering +
Design Arts Public Policy
– People, technology, organizations, information
interconnected by value propositions.
Reference:
IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service
innovation: A service perspective for education,
research, business and government.
University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing,
Cambridge, UK. 2008.

How to get involved?
• Weekly speaker series
– Service innovation
– Service education & research
– Smart service/cognitive systems
• Discovery summits & book series
• Opportunities
– Institutional memberships
– Leadership & ambassadors
– Volunteer opportunities
– Awards & sponsored
conferences
ISSIP.org is a non-profit society
International Society of Service Innovation Professionals
Membership:
Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries,
50+ companies and 50+ universities.

How to get involved?
• Journals (INFORMS,
etc.)
• Conferences (HICSS,
etc.)
• Courses (MIT, etc.)
• Funding (NSF, etc.)
• Society (ISSIP, etc.)

What are the hot topics?
• Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation
– AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User
Experience)
– Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.)
• Collaborative Economy: Servitization
– From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.)
– From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service
– Manufacturing as a local recycling service
• Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity
– Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book
– Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things)

Backups
• T-shaped people

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
10/20/2016
development
122

My Quest
• What is the best bot that anyone can easily
install on their smartphone and laptop today?
10/20/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
128

Ibm welcome and cognitive 20161020 v4

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (13)

Semelhante a Ibm welcome and cognitive 20161020 v4

Semelhante a Ibm welcome and cognitive 20161020 v4 (20)

Mais de ISSIP

Mais de ISSIP (20)

Último

Último (20)

Ibm welcome and cognitive 20161020 v4