1. Climate Change and Health With special reference to risks facing small island-states

2. Kilimanjaro 1970

4. Kilimanjaro 2000 Ice on Kilimanjaro 0 5 10 15 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Area (km 2 )

6. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 One Earth is available (The planet’s total bio-capacity = 1.0) Number of Earths used by humanity Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002 Number of Earths 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

7. From: Steffen et al. In press 2004 Atmos CO 2 conc Domesticated land Loss of trop forest, woodland Coastal shrimp farms Fully exploited fisheries Climate disasters Av surface temp (NH) Atmos ozone loss Atmos CH 4 conc Atmos N 2 O conc Coastal N 2 flux Global biodiversity Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000

8. Sea-level rise over coming centuries following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions 200 400 600 800 Time from start (years) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Sea-level rise (m) Total sea level rise Ocean Expansion Ice-melt Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action) IPCC 2001 Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium Peaking in 2050

12. VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

13. 1990 2085 Estimated population at risk of dengue fever under “standard” climate change scenario: 1990, 2085 .

14. Baseline 2000 Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. I

15. Baseline 2000 2025 Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. II

16. Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. III

18. Global average temperature ( o C) over the past millennium

19. The International Energy Agency predicts that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrialized world. China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the United States – even though China's per-person emissions are, for example, still only one-eighth of those in the United States. GHG: Coming Decades

20. Need to convert estimates of regional food yields into estimates of changes in numbers of malnourished people

22. Changes in climatic phenomenon Confidence in observed changes (latter half of 1900s) Probability of projected changes to 2100 Higher maximum temperatures - more hot days Likely Very likely Higher minimum temperatures, - fewer cold days and frost days Very likely Very likely Increase of heat index over land areas Likely Very likely More intense precipitation events Likely, (N mid to high latitudes) Very likely Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Likely, in a few areas Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Not observed in the few analysis available Likely, over some areas Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities Insufficient data Likely, over some areas