Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology (Predictive Analytics Summit 2010)

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Presented by Scott Sambucci (Altos Research) at the IE Group's Predictive Analytics Summit, "Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology" reviews real-time and leading housing market indicators to predict future home prices.

Imóveis Negócios Economia e finanças

PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT
Scott Sambucci, Altos Research
November 2010 | San Francisco, CA

WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW
• Altos Research
• Real-time housing market analytics
• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes
• What is happening & what will happen, not what
happened
• Wisdom of crowds
• The Active Market to forecast future market activity

APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS

• Current Market Conditions
• Future Housing Prices
• Consumer Sentiment
• Mortgage Default Rates
• Financial Market

MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009?

Did values really
moved higher?
The actives knew the
market was weak

PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES
SPCS20R Active Prices
205.00 $445,000

195.00
$425,000
185.00
$405,000
175.00

165.00 $385,000

155.00
$365,000
145.00
$345,000
135.00

125.00 $325,000

QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND
PROBLEM

MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE
FIRST TIME

DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH

New delinquencies
perfectly correlated to
market conditions

MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS

New delinquencies
perfectly correlated to
market conditions

THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500
S&P 500 Active Prices
1,500.00 $415,000

1,400.00 $405,000
1,300.00 $395,000
1,200.00
$385,000
1,100.00
$375,000
1,000.00
$365,000
900.00
$355,000
800.00

700.00 $345,000

600.00 $335,000

500.00 $325,000

CONTACT
Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics
Altos Research
www.altosresearch.com
(415) 931-7942
scott@altosresearch.com
http://blog.altosresearch.com
@scottsambucci

PROPERTY TAXES

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html

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Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT

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Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits. To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups. Technology For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did. While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis. Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad. Age and Gender When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same. Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers. Race Affects Attitudes As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).

How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health

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AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf

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A report by thenetworkone and Kurio. The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).

Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights

Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)

The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands. It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024. Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024. You’ll learn: - The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem. - New developments in privacy and data regulation. - Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year. Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape. If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.

Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024

Search Engine Journal

From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world. With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively. The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage. Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience. See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers See the original article on Forbes here: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b

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Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world. Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance. For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age. Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.

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The six step guide to practical project management If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again. We’ve stripped back project management processes to the basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing the vital ingredients for success. “If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.” Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management

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Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology (Predictive Analytics Summit 2010)

1. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT Scott Sambucci, Altos Research November 2010 | San Francisco, CA

2. WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW • Altos Research • Real-time housing market analytics • 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes • What is happening & what will happen, not what happened • Wisdom of crowds • The Active Market to forecast future market activity

3. APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS • Current Market Conditions • Future Housing Prices • Consumer Sentiment • Mortgage Default Rates • Financial Market

4. MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES

5. MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009? Did values really moved higher? The actives knew the market was weak

6. PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES SPCS20R Active Prices 205.00 $445,000 195.00 $425,000 185.00 $405,000 175.00 165.00 $385,000 155.00 $365,000 145.00 $345,000 135.00 125.00 $325,000

7. QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND PROBLEM

8. CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING

9. MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE FIRST TIME

10. FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT

11. DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH New delinquencies perfectly correlated to market conditions

12. MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS New delinquencies perfectly correlated to market conditions

13. THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500 S&P 500 Active Prices 1,500.00 $415,000 1,400.00 $405,000 1,300.00 $395,000 1,200.00 $385,000 1,100.00 $375,000 1,000.00 $365,000 900.00 $355,000 800.00 700.00 $345,000 600.00 $335,000 500.00 $325,000

14. CONTACT Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics Altos Research www.altosresearch.com (415) 931-7942 scott@altosresearch.com http://blog.altosresearch.com @scottsambucci

15. PROPERTY TAXES http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html

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