SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 15
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT
   Scott Sambucci, Altos Research
     November 2010 | San Francisco, CA
WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW
• Altos Research
• Real-time housing market analytics
• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes
• What is happening & what will happen, not what
  happened
• Wisdom of crowds
• The Active Market to forecast future market activity
APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS

• Current Market Conditions
• Future Housing Prices
• Consumer Sentiment
• Mortgage Default Rates
• Financial Market
MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES
MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009?

                                  Did values really
                                   moved higher?
                                The actives knew the
                                 market was weak
PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES
              SPCS20R   Active Prices
 205.00                                 $445,000

 195.00
                                        $425,000
 185.00
                                        $405,000
 175.00

 165.00                                 $385,000

 155.00
                                        $365,000
 145.00
                                        $345,000
 135.00

 125.00                                 $325,000
QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND
PROBLEM
CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING
MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE
FIRST TIME
FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT
DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH

                       New delinquencies
                      perfectly correlated to
                        market conditions
MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS


                                New delinquencies
                               perfectly correlated to
                                 market conditions
THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500
            S&P 500   Active Prices
1,500.00                              $415,000

1,400.00                              $405,000
1,300.00                              $395,000
1,200.00
                                      $385,000
1,100.00
                                      $375,000
1,000.00
                                      $365,000
 900.00
                                      $355,000
 800.00

 700.00                               $345,000

 600.00                               $335,000

 500.00                               $325,000
CONTACT
Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics
Altos Research
www.altosresearch.com
(415) 931-7942
scott@altosresearch.com
http://blog.altosresearch.com
@scottsambucci
PROPERTY TAXES




http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html

More Related Content

Recently uploaded

FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing TurkeyFGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
Listing Turkey
 
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing TurkeyFGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
Listing Turkey
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Aishwaryam Codename Fashion At Tathawade, Pune - PDF.pdf
Aishwaryam Codename Fashion At Tathawade, Pune - PDF.pdfAishwaryam Codename Fashion At Tathawade, Pune - PDF.pdf
Aishwaryam Codename Fashion At Tathawade, Pune - PDF.pdf
 
Unique NIBM Flat In Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Unique NIBM Flat In Pune  E-Brochure.pdfUnique NIBM Flat In Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Unique NIBM Flat In Pune E-Brochure.pdf
 
Uk Property Rental Market Guide by region 2024
Uk Property Rental Market Guide by region 2024Uk Property Rental Market Guide by region 2024
Uk Property Rental Market Guide by region 2024
 
FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing TurkeyFGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
FGM RAMADA PENDIK CATALOG Listing Turkey
 
CBMSQUARE PVT LIMITED shd2idh2ih2hsk1js1j
CBMSQUARE PVT LIMITED shd2idh2ih2hsk1js1jCBMSQUARE PVT LIMITED shd2idh2ih2hsk1js1j
CBMSQUARE PVT LIMITED shd2idh2ih2hsk1js1j
 
Purvanchal Skyline Vista Noida Expressway Sector 94
Purvanchal Skyline Vista Noida Expressway Sector 94Purvanchal Skyline Vista Noida Expressway Sector 94
Purvanchal Skyline Vista Noida Expressway Sector 94
 
Understanding the Dholera Price Trend An In-depth Analysis.pdf
Understanding the Dholera Price Trend An In-depth Analysis.pdfUnderstanding the Dholera Price Trend An In-depth Analysis.pdf
Understanding the Dholera Price Trend An In-depth Analysis.pdf
 
VTP Dhanori Pune Residential Apartment Brochure.pdf
VTP Dhanori Pune Residential Apartment Brochure.pdfVTP Dhanori Pune Residential Apartment Brochure.pdf
VTP Dhanori Pune Residential Apartment Brochure.pdf
 
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Abortion Pills For Sale In Ebony park tembisa
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Abortion Pills For Sale In Ebony park tembisaTop^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Abortion Pills For Sale In Ebony park tembisa
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Abortion Pills For Sale In Ebony park tembisa
 
Edenic Parth Kiona Hinjewadi, Pune - PDF.pdf
Edenic Parth Kiona Hinjewadi, Pune - PDF.pdfEdenic Parth Kiona Hinjewadi, Pune - PDF.pdf
Edenic Parth Kiona Hinjewadi, Pune - PDF.pdf
 
Godrej Shettigere - Embrace Tranquil Luxury in North Bangalore's Premier Vill...
Godrej Shettigere - Embrace Tranquil Luxury in North Bangalore's Premier Vill...Godrej Shettigere - Embrace Tranquil Luxury in North Bangalore's Premier Vill...
Godrej Shettigere - Embrace Tranquil Luxury in North Bangalore's Premier Vill...
 
MI NOVA 6+6 LED SURGICAL LIGHTS Morbros India
MI NOVA 6+6 LED SURGICAL LIGHTS Morbros IndiaMI NOVA 6+6 LED SURGICAL LIGHTS Morbros India
MI NOVA 6+6 LED SURGICAL LIGHTS Morbros India
 
Shapoorji Pallonji Helius Pune Brochure.pdf
Shapoorji Pallonji Helius Pune Brochure.pdfShapoorji Pallonji Helius Pune Brochure.pdf
Shapoorji Pallonji Helius Pune Brochure.pdf
 
Exploring Vernacular Architecture with Pune's Renowned Architects.pdf
Exploring Vernacular Architecture with Pune's Renowned Architects.pdfExploring Vernacular Architecture with Pune's Renowned Architects.pdf
Exploring Vernacular Architecture with Pune's Renowned Architects.pdf
 
Purva Kensho Hills Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Purva Kensho Hills Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdfPurva Kensho Hills Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Purva Kensho Hills Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
 
Investing-In-Commercial-Real-Estate-2024
Investing-In-Commercial-Real-Estate-2024Investing-In-Commercial-Real-Estate-2024
Investing-In-Commercial-Real-Estate-2024
 
Improvise, Adapt, Overcome - Sales Meeting, May '24
Improvise, Adapt, Overcome - Sales Meeting, May '24Improvise, Adapt, Overcome - Sales Meeting, May '24
Improvise, Adapt, Overcome - Sales Meeting, May '24
 
Ashiana Vatsalya Senior Living Mahindra World City, Chennai
Ashiana Vatsalya Senior Living Mahindra World City, ChennaiAshiana Vatsalya Senior Living Mahindra World City, Chennai
Ashiana Vatsalya Senior Living Mahindra World City, Chennai
 
Diego Marynberg: Mastering the Real Estate and Finance Landscape
Diego Marynberg: Mastering the Real Estate and Finance LandscapeDiego Marynberg: Mastering the Real Estate and Finance Landscape
Diego Marynberg: Mastering the Real Estate and Finance Landscape
 
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing TurkeyFGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
FGM Gloria Tuzla Istanbul - Listing Turkey
 

Featured

How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
ThinkNow
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 

Featured (20)

2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
 
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
 
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 

Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology (Predictive Analytics Summit 2010)