Results of the Sinergia project: challenges of water resources management in the context of climate change in the Paraguay Basin in South America. Main impacts of climate change and main adaptations as recommended by the project participants

1. Adaptation challenges in the
Paraguay River Basin: Sinergia’s
results
Pierre Girard
CPP - UFMT

2. Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
Argentina

3. Climate is already
changing (has already
changed) in the PB.

4. The number of events with precipitation excess increased
SPI ≥ 1,28
Garcia & Buraschi, 2011

5. The number of events with precipitation deficit increased
SPI ≤ -1,28
Garcia & Buraschi, 2011

6. Increase in Intense events frequency
1961-2000
Intense rainfall
Consecutive dry days
Sampaio, 2012

7. Are we prepared to
intense events (right
now and in the future)?

8. How to cope with climate variability
and change?
• How to reduce vulnerability and
adapt to CC? Ie:
–Can we reduce the severity of the
impacts ?
–Can we cope better with severe
impacts?

9. SINERGIA
• The aim of the project were
– to provide the social actors of the basin with
technical information about climate change
impacts, actual vulnerability (and risks) to climate
variability and technologies to better cope with
the impacts of climate hazards
– To have the basin social actors discuss climate
risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies
• The project activities started in February 2009
and end in November 2012

10. Sinergia: A poject built by science and
social actors
• Formulation of the general project framework
by CPP science team
• Specifics (research themes, assessment of
main climate impacts, vulnerabilities and
construction of adaptation measures) defined
by social actors
• Implementation and monitoring of the project
carried out by scientists and social actors

11. Sinergia’s structure
Science network AS network
Research projects on
- Climate change
- Climate impacts on hydrology
and civil engineering
- Actual risks to biodiversity
- Social vulnerability to climate
- Institutional vulnerability to
CC
- Adaptation technologies
1. Co-production of a VIAM
state of the art in each BP
country
2. Co-production of
adaptation vs. impacts and
vulnerability matrixes
taking into account science
network results
3. Co-production of
recommendations to BP
decision makers

12. Who participates
• Researchers from the basin and from abroad
• Social actors of the basin:
– Governments,
– Private sector,
– Socio-environmental NGOs
• The Sinergia network (academics + social
actors) ~ 160 individuals
• Funding CNPq ~ 2 mi R$ (1 mi $)

13. Preliminary (and some final) results:
social sciences and social actors
network

14. An international network
• Mobilization: launch an idea
that requires appropriation
and redefinition by the actors
• Construct: develop/implement
a common project in which
each actors sees its
participation and benefit
• Maintain: communicate, build
capacity, co-produce results
• Go forward: plan how to use
the result with the network
actors– current challenge
Brazil
Argentina
Paraguay
Bolivia
Others
Mobilized ~250
Network ~160

15. Challenge - enhance international
collaboration
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
Argentina
Others

16. Challenge – inter-sector collaboration
Academy
Private sector
NGOs
Government
Sinergia coordination

17. Climate change in the Paraguay River Basin
- Temperature increases
- Rainfall intensity increases
- Intensity or frequence of
extreme events increases -
heat waves, storms,
inundations, long droughts
- Already known impacts:
agriculture loss, urban
inundations, health hazards,
risks to biodiversity, landslides
...
~1.1 Mi km2
4 países
Argentina
Bolívia
Brazil
Paraguai
Bacia do Paraguai
Pantanal
Cuiabá

18. Present
ecological risks
for biodiversity
of aquatic
systems
ERI are being calculated for
+2oC and +4oC scenarios as
climate is a direct
component of the ERI. It
affects fire – one of the
main stressor-, but also
influences the sensitivity
of the ecosystem (how it
responds to a stressor).
WWF, TNC. CPP, 2012

19. Degree of
exposure of
urban
populations to
climatic
disasters - UPB
Very low
Low
Low – Medium
Medium
Medium – high
High
Very high
Preliminary map, Verissimo, 2012

20. Institutional vulnerabilities- Brazil
Legislation is still focused mainly on mitigation and little on
adaptation
+
Focus on the Amazon
+
Institutional shortcomings such as inadequate laws. deficient
structures and agencies, lack of coordination between sectors
and levels of governance
=
Government and private sector give a merely peripheral
attention to climate change, mitigation and adaptation
Preliminary, Ioris & Kirsten, 2012

21. Some results from the social
actors network

22. What we identified with social actors
• 3 rounds of workshops in 4 countries involving > 150
persons between 2010 and 2012;
• We worked with 4 activity sectors related to WRs:
1. Water resources and energy
2. Agribusiness
3. Forest and biodiversity
4. Health and cities
→Vulnerable areas
→Possible climatic impacts
→Adaptation measures (and sometimes mitigation
measures as well)

23. Sanitation - deficient
Population – migration/rapid growth
Endemics (dengue, malaria and others)
Health services – deficient/insufficient
1. Salta & Formosa Province,
Argentina
2. Department of Tarija,
Bolivia
3. Dept of Potosi &
Chuquisaca, Bolivia
4. Dept of Santa Cruz, Bolivia
5. Mato Grosso, Brazil
6. Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
7. Paraguay (whole country)
8. Dept of Alto Parana and
Alto Paraguay, Paraguay
9. Dept Central and
Asunción, Paraguay
Example : health and cities

28. Conclusions andrecommendations
for the Paraguay Basin

29. Main risks and impacts identified in
the vulnerable areas
• desertification of the “Chaco seco” mainly in
Paraguay;
• economic losses (->jobs) in agriculture, cattle
raising, fisheries;
• increasing food insecurity, poor population
migration and physical and mental health
problems;
• risk of compromising water supply in urban and
rural areas;
• potential water conflicts during the dry season;

30. Main risks and impacts identified in
the vulnerable areas
• human (health, life) and economic losses
resulting from urban inundations;
• increased incidence and geographical spread of
infectious diseases caused by waterborne
transmission;
• saturation of local health systems due to
increased intra and international migration due to
climate extremes;
• physical damage to private and public property in
particular housing and sanitation infrastructure
and water supply.

31. Recommended adaptations
• promote the integrated management of WRs in
the BP;
• establish an effective territorial zoning;
• implement early warning systems for extreme
meteorological and hydrological events in the
basin;
• protection, conservation and restoration of the
upstream areas of the rivers of the basin;
• implement good agricultural practices (farming)
associated with low carbon emissions;

32. Recommended adaptations
• adequacy of infrastructure to minimize the impacts of
climate extremes;
• economic incentives to avoid deforestation and forest
degradation;
• bioclimatic monitoring of specific infectious and
waterborne diseases with a priority for dengue control;
• create and improve health and education services and
the water sanitation infrastructures;
• systematize climate information in order to subsidize
policies and projects to protect people from the
harmful effects of CC.

33. www.portalsinergia.org.br
Thank you!
pierregirard1301@gmail.com