This document provides information about an executive education program on strategic foresight and leadership in uncertain times. The program includes modules on environmental scanning, strategic planning, and leading in uncertain times. It uses methods like scenario planning to help participants develop strategies for dealing with an increasingly global, digital and volatile business environment. The program aims to equip participants with tools and frameworks for anticipating change, making decisions with incomplete information, and leading organizations through disruption and paradigm shifts. Registration details are provided at the top.

1. Inscrições:
http://www1.idefe.pt/cursos/elci
(+351) 917681857
(+351) 213 922 727

2. PROGRAMA
SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT
- Prospectiva/Foresight: Princípios e Conceitos Base
- Environmental Scanning - introdução e conceitos operacionais
- Conceitos e Frameworks para compreender um novo contexto empresarial e
industrial
- Trabalhando com Forças Globais, Consumer Trends e Modelos de Negócio
- O Método dos Cenários - Simulação de futuros possíveis
STRATEGIZING TO THE CORE
- A Estratégia num Contexto Global e Incerto
- O Ambiente Interno: Recursos, Capacidades e Competências Distintivas
- Novas competências e ferramentas para lidar com um novo ambiente
- Ferramentas de Gestão Estratégica e respetiva articulação com os Cenários
LEADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
- Ruptura de Paradigma e a Emergência da Liderança
- Liderar na Era da Turbulência
- O Líder, a Comunicação e a Gestão da Mudança
- Liderança e Gestão: diferenças e complementaridades
- Liderar a Cultura de Desconfiança em Portugal

3. Uma experiência única,
interactiva e multisensorial

4. Prospectiva
Foresight

5. Ciência. Arte. Prática
Lógica. Intuição. Experimentação
Antecipação. Acção. Apropriação

6. PRINCÍPIOS DA PROSPECTIVA
O Longo Prazo e a
“Visão Longa”
Retrospectiva e
Visão periférica
Múltiplas Perspectivas
Out-of-the box thinking
Jogo dos Actores
Visão Global e
Sistémica
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.

7. Megatrends &
Global Forces
…

8. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in
Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some
Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts
DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
• Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
• Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
• Virtual business worlds
NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
• Globally, mobility increases
• Barriers to mobility increase
• Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
• New vehicle concepts – new drive
technologies
UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
• IT-revolution continues
• Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new
surfaces
• Neuro sciences, “AI”, and robotics
• Transparent society: Surveillance & control
GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
• Shift to Asia (China and India) and a new role
for the West
• Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
• Globalised Flow of Capital, (+ goods, services,
people, information)
KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
• Education and learning as a basis
• Innovation as a key driver and competition
factor
• New global knowledge elite – the creative
class
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
• Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
• Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
• Flexible, interactive work structures
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
• The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
• Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
• Sustainable consumption in the West (Eco
Chic, Moral Commerce)
URBANISATION
• Megacities grow strongly
• Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
• New forms of residence, living, and
participation
WATER CHALLENGES
• Only a small fraction is freshwater
• Aggravation by consequences of climate
change + Urbanisation and water shortage
• Water recycling (“Zero discharge”)
• Measurement of water quality
• Advanced water treatment
• Intelligent Waters Grids?
Megatrends
Global Forces
TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
• Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
• Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
• NBIC-convergence
BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
• Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
• New value-adding chains (customer
integration, coopetition)
• Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new
markets
ENERGY AND RESOURCE
REVERSAL
• Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels,
freshwater, minerals, metals)
• Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
• Revolution in energy efficiency
• Decentralised energy supply
CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• CO2-discharges and global rise of
temperatures
• Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
• Clean technologies
• Corporate responsibility increases
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
• Plural ways of life between tradition and today
• Value systems compete globally
• Emergence of hybrid culture
NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
• China and India join the ranks of world powers
• Crisis of Western democracies
• Russia’s renaissance
• Africa awakes
HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE
AND CONVERGING
• Health tech – human enhancement ,
Biomedical self-design, health style
• New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
• New converging markets (food,
pharmarmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)
GROWING THREATS TO
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
• Global risk society
• Festering cultural conflicts & failed states
• Global terrorism
• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A
NEW STAGE
• Individualism, a global phenomenon
• Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
• From mass markets to micro markets
• Self-sufficiency and DIY-economy
WOMEN ON THE RISE
• Women are integrated into the working world
• “Female” soft skills become more important
• Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
• Work-life balance

9. … Consumer,
Market &
Technology
Trends

10. www.trendwatching.com

12. Planeamento
por Cenários
Aprender a Lidar e a tomar Decisões
em contextos de Incerteza

15. A Estratégia
num Contexto
Incerto em
Aceleração

17. “Companies fail to create the future not because they fail to
predict it but because they fail to imagine it”
Gary Hamel

18. STRATEGIC AGILITY
Perceive!
Execute!
Commit!
Source: Doz, Kosonen, 2006, 2008.

19. STRATEGIC AGILITY
Scoping:
Para Onde
Olhar?
Scanning:
Como Olhar?
Interpreting:
O que
significam
os dados?
Organizing:
Como desenvolver a Vigilância
Leading:
Uma Agenda para a Acção
Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
Probing:
O Que
Explorar
de forma mais
Aprofundada?
Acting:
O que fazer com
estes Insights?

22. LIDERANÇA
em contextos
de Incerteza

23. APROPRIAÇÃO
Estrutura de Coordenação
(da hierarquia à rede)
Sistema de
Relacionamento
entre Actores
Cultura
Liderança
(Estratégia)

24. Emergência da Liderança, da Estrutura em Rede e
da Cultura de Equipa
Envolvente Estável
Envolvente Incerta e Turbulenta
Ruptura de Paradigma
Integração pela
Hierarquia
Integração pelo
Mercado
Gestão
Integração pela
Rede
Liderança

25. Inscrições:
http://www1.idefe.pt/cursos/elci
(+351) 917681857
(+351) 213 922 727