GWEC's Steve Sawyer reminds us that a sustainable future for the wind industry is based on thinking about it, doing it, and then repeating what works.

1. Beijing | Brussels | London
Global Wind Power Update
Steve Sawyer, Secretary General
August 9, 2011
NRG Systems HQ
Hinesburg, VT

2. Beijing | Brussels | London
C0 Members
C2 Members
Associations
GWEC – Uniting the global wind industry and its representative associations

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$96bn in
wind
power
$96bn in
(up by
wind
31%)
power
(up by
31%)

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Moving East, and South
$96bn in
wind
power
(up by
31%)

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2010 growth: 24.1%
14 yr avg growth: 28.3%
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2010 growth: -0.5%
14 yr avg growth: 29.2%

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% of global electricity supply
$96bn in
wind
power
(up by
31%)
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Source: http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=181

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Development of Costs
Feb ‘11: Bloomberg NEF says H2 2010 turbine
prices were below 1 million Euro/MW
$96bn in
wind
power
(up by
31%)
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Offshore still small
~3,060 MW Cumulative Capacity:
2% of total installed wind power capacity
~1,000 MW 2010 Market:
~2.5% of annual wind power market
2020: ~70 GW - 10% cumulative capacity

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2010 European offshore wind power market
• 308 new offshore wind turbines installed and connected
• Investment in offshore wind farms totalled €2.6 billion
• 883 MW in total – increased by 51% on the previous year
• During 2010, work was carried on 18 offshore wind farms
among which:
- Eight wind farms were fully completed and grid connected
- One wind farm partially completed and grid connected
- One wind farm completed but not grid connected
• Average water depth: 17.4 m in 2010
• Average distance to shore: 27.1km

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Cumulative European Offshore Market
1991 – 2010
• 1,136 turbines installed and grid connected
• 2,946 MW in total
• 45 wind farms in nine European countries
• Produces 11.5 TWh of electricity in a normal year
• Average wind turbine size 3.2 MW

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Market outlook: 2011 and beyond
• January to June 2011: 101 offshore turbines totalling 348.1 MW
fully grid connected. Overall 11 offshore wind farms under
construction which when completed will account for 2,844 MW.
• As of 30 June 2011, there are 1,247 offshore wind turbines fully grid
connected with a total capacity of 3,294 MW in 49 wind farms
spread over 9 countries. EWEA forecasts that between 1,000 and
1,500 MW of new offshore wind capacity will be fully grid connected
in Europe during 2011
• 19,000 MW are currently fully consented
• 150,000 MW announced projects

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Future European offshore wind power market
Scenarios
2020
EWEA baseline scenario: 40 GW
EWEA high scenario: 55 GW
National (NREAP) targets: 43 GW
2030
EWEA baseline scenario: 150 GW

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EU Offshore 2011 – 2020 (MW)
• 2011: annual
installations of 1.5 GW
• 2020: annual
installations of 6.9 GW
• 2020: cumulative
installations of 40 GW
Source:
EWEA

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EU Offshore 2021 – 2030 (MW)
• 2021: annual
installations of 7.7 GW
• 2030: annual
installations of 13.6
GW
• 2030: cumulative
installations of 150
Source:
GW EWEA

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US Projects Under development
- 1 with federal lease (Cape Wind, MA)
- Not much before 2015
- Enormous Potential
Source:
AWEA

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The Prize
- mean of 8.3 m/s (at 80 m height); 7.9 m/s
in estuaries;
- excluded major bird flyways, shipping
lanes, military zones, etc;
- resource using current technology
(Siemens 3.6MW or RePower 5MW)
- 0-20m = ~60GW;
- 20-50m = ~120GW;
- 50-100m = ~150GW –
- total delivered power ~300GW continuous
Kempton, W., C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson
(2007), Large CO2 reductions via offshore wind power matched to inherent
- total current demand for coastal states
storage in energy enduses,Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02817, doi:
10.1029/ 2006GL028016.
from MA to NC (incl DC) = ~73GW

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Post-Fukushima Japan
A new beginning for wind in Japan…both on and offshore?
Now famous ‘battle proof’
Kamisu near-shore wind
farm survived direct hit from
tsunami in March. Projects
also under investigation in
Tokyo Bay

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Many challenges to reduce costs:
Source:
EWEA

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ADVANTAGES
Hywind
Higher winds further out
Relatively robust and cost efficient design
Minimal offshore work
Independent of location, less conflicts
Minimal land or sea-scape issues
SPECIFICATIONS
Turbine size: 2.3 MW
Turbine weight: 138 tons
Turbine height: 65 m
Rotor diameter: 82.4 m
Draft hull: 100 m
Displacement: 5300 m3
Diameter at water line: 6m
Diameter submerged body: 8.3 m
Water depths: 120-700 m
Mooring: 3 lines

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Conclusions
Offshore is still small % of global market, and will likely
remain so throughout this decade;
Many challenges: Cost, OM, Standards, Supply chains,
vessels, etc.
Europe will develop ca 40 GW of projects
China will develop: targets 5 GW by 2015, and 30 by 2020
Others (Japan, US, Canada, India, Brazil) uncertain
Onshore wind is now cost competitive in most markets with
most conventional new-build. When will the same be true for
offshore?

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Conclusions - 2
Market conditions:
- Asian market driving global growth
- European market solid and steady
- North America uncertain and weak at the moment
- Hopeful signs in Latin America, Africa
- Downward price pressure continues
- Trade barriers/new protectionism?
- International commodity price volatility
returns with economic recovery

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Conclusions - 3
A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to
achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term:
Uncertainty:
- in international political landscape
- in the future of the carbon markets
- in ‘new’ climate-related funds
Focus on national/regional legislation and markets
Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent:
energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security;
local economic development and job creation; local
environment and climate

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Global Water Crisis
Water Intensities of Power Generation (m3/MWh)
Source: http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/strategy/political-affairs/water-energy-climate-nexus.aspx

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For more information:
Thank you! Steve Sawyer
steve.sawyer@gwec.net

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$96bn in
wind
power
(up by
31%)