New base 536 special 09 february 2015

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NewBase 09 February 2015 - Issue No. 536 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Global oil traders set to celebrate their best market for years
Reuters + NewBAse
The oil price crash has meant slashed budgets, staff layoffs and mothballed projects for big
producers, but oil traders will celebrate their best market for years this week. As hundreds of
dealers flock to London for the annual International Petroleum Week, cocktail circuit talk will be of
the chance of huge returns after years of low volatility.
For them the market presents near perfect conditions, mimicking the year after the 2008 oil crash
when some booked their best profits in history. Then, those with the know-how and storage were
able to lock-up millions of barrels of crude until prices eventually recovered.
The bumper profits on offer are reflected in the long list of IP Week parties, with no firms
cancelling their events this year, even as they make cuts in other areas. “I haven’t been more
positive about trading conditions since 2009,” said Torbjorn Tornqvist, head of trading house
Gunvor, one of the world’s largest independent oil dealers, told Reuters.
“I see contango in the market, I see the cost of funding going down, I see the dollar strengthening,
I see strong refining margins.”
Contango – industry jargon for when prices for delivery months in the future are higher than in the
spot market - is key to much of the trading boom.
Any trader with access to storage, on land or at sea, can buy a barrel of oil today for $58 and sell
it 10 months (or less ) down the line for $65, based on current prices.
Volatility has also jumped in recent weeks.

After posting a 60% crash from above $115 a barrel June to near $45 in January, Brent crude oil
has rallied by as much as 30%, touching $59 a barrel this week. Prices have swung wildly, gaining
as much as 9% in one session only to fall 5% the next, as traders wrestle over whether a price
floor has really been hit, even as supplies look to continue outstripping demand in the first half of
this year.
Gunvor and its rivals Glencore, Vitol, Mercuria and Trafigura have seen profits falling in the past
five years versus the peak of 2009, although the amount of oil, coal, and gas they move has
grown rapidly.
While revenues can amount to more than $300bn a year for the biggest trader Vitol, profit-margins
are razor thin, shrinking to less than 1% even in the better years. “Whoever has storage this year
will win,” the head of Mercuria, Marco Dunand, told Reuters last month. “Not necessarily traders -
but oil companies too and even refiners.”
Oil majors BP and Shell, which have the biggest trading operations among international energy
firms, have both reported improved results from trading divisions over the past week as part of
their fourth quarter results.
“Since 2009, when a lot of oil was stored onshore and offshore, a lot of new storage capacity has
been built and a lot of refineries were turned into storage,” said Dunand.
Dunand estimates that by the end of the first quarter of 2015 some 400mn barrels of oil worth
$22bn will be stored onshore and offshore as global production volumes are still massively
exceeding demand.
However, as storage is being gradually filled in Europe more and more barrels will be sent to the
US where storage capacity is still abundant, meaning potentially record profits for traders with a
large presence there. “There is a lot of spare capacity in the US and some geographical
rebalancing still remains to be done,” said Dunand.

Algeria:Petrofac secures strategic services agreements in Algeria
Petrofac + NewBase
Petrofac, the international oil & gas service provider, has entered into two strategic contract
agreements with Algerian state-owned Sonatrach.
The first is a five year contract
where Petrofac will be providing
a range of multi-discipline
engineering design and
procurement services in support
of Sonatrach’s upstream
hydrocarbon development
programme within the
procedures that govern the
tendering process. It is
anticipated that the contract will
cover the early definition of new
projects, detailed engineering
and services in support of project
execution. Around 100 personnel
will support the contract
throughout its duration.
Under the terms of the second
agreement, Petrofac has signed
a Memorandum of
Understanding with Sonatrach,
committing both parties to
establish an Algerian Joint
Venture to undertake
engineering and project
execution of selected upstream and downstream developments. The Joint Venture is expected to
be finalised by mid-2015 with first project activity in Q4 2015.
Building local capability and capacity through the transfer of knowledge, systems and processes
and customised training is at the heart of both agreements; ensuring the development and
mentoring of future generations so they have the skills to take Algeria’s oil and gas industry to
the next level. The majority of engineering services will be delivered locally.
Craig Muir, Managing Director for Petrofac’s Engineering & Consulting Services business
commented: 'Our track record in Algeria extends more than 15 years and over that time we have
had the opportunity to undertake many different types of work. From EPC projects at one end of
the spectrum, through operations and maintenance and engineering services, underpinned by
our strong local technical training capability.
These two most recent agreements are excellent illustrations of our strategy in action: utilising
our international capability to maximise in-country value in key areas of operations. This is an
ideal opportunity to support our longer-term sustainability in-Algeria and we look forward to
working with Sonatrach to deliver the wide variety of services that these agreements have the
potential to offer.'

Saudi Kayan Gets More Gas For Making Ethylene
Reuters + NewBase
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Ministry has allocated more natural gas to Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co
for it to expand ethylene production at its petrochemical complex in Jubail, the company said
on Sunday.
The ministry has allocated the affiliate of
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation
(SABIC) an extra 10 million cubic feed a
day (scfd) of ethane from July 1, Kayan
said in a bourse statement.
The extra gas will allow it to raise
ethylene production capacity by at least
93,000 tonnes a year and ethylene oxide
capacity by 61,000 tonnes a year by the
second quarter of 2017, it said.
The additional ethane supply will also
allow the company to reduce its
consumption of butane gas, it said. As
part of the same deal, SABIC will also
reduce the marketing fees it charges Saudi Kayan, which will save the company 280 million
riyals ($74.6 million) this year and 600 million riyals a year once its projects are completed, it
said.

UK: Aberdeen feels the pinch from oil slide
Donal Griffin, Washington Post + NeBase + Gulf News
In this city built out of granite on Scotland’s North Sea coast, a diamond merchant checks the
price of oil every day. Until recently, the dealer, Oscar Ozdaslar, had been accustomed to North
Sea oil workers stopping in to buy £3,500 (Dh19,600) diamond rings and earrings in his store on
Union Street.
“This Christmas was very
quiet compared to the
Christmas before,” said
Ozdaslar. “The oil guys didn’t
come in.”
Just six months ago,
Aberdeen was the economic
linchpin of Scotland’s
campaign to split from Britain
as oil traded above $100 a
barrel. In the wake of the
independence referendum’s
failure, it serves as a
microcosm of how crude’s
slump to nearer $50 is
hurting cities from Calgary to
Kuala Lumpur.
“Aberdeen has been the
focus of a classic oil boom,”
said Gordon Hughes, a
professor of economics in
the University of Edinburgh.
“There’s no doubt that the
city will go through a bad
period now that it’s over.”
What’s more, the North Sea
basin is among the most
expensive in the world from
which to extract oil. About 20
per cent of British production
is “uneconomic” at $50 a barrel, trade group Oil & Gas UK says.
BP CEO Bob Dudley has said it feels like the 1980s when he was living in Aberdeen working as
an artificial lift engineer for Amoco before it merged with BP. Prices fell about 70 per cent in a few
months after Saudi Arabia increased production and didn’t recover until 1990. Regions worldwide
that depend on the industry are having an “enormous shock,” he said in an interview with
Bloomberg Television.
At Cafe Boheme, a French restaurant across the street from Ozdaslar’s jewellery store, customers
including Royal Dutch Shell cancelled about 30 Christmas bookings in December, said Dominique
Mancellon, who owns and runs the eatery. Staff from companies including Shell, Statoil and
Petrofac make up about half of his customers. Sales will fall about 10 per cent for the 12 months
through July after increasing every year in the past decade, he said.

“If the price of oil stays down, we’ll have to be very careful about how we run our business,” said
Mancellon. The fillet steak, which costs 28.50 pounds and was a regular order for oil workers, has
declined in popularity, Mancellon said. A white wine from Chateau Mont-Redon from his native
Provence region going for more than 70 pounds a bottle was also popular before the oil rout.
Sales are now down about 60 per cent as diners choose the house wine instead.
The prospect of a slump has darkened the mood in a town where most of the buildings already
are a dull grey and the sun sets by 4pm in January.
Petrodollars have sloshed around the Aberdonian economy since companies started pumping oil
from the North Sea in the 1970s, transforming it into one of the wealthiest towns in Britain. The
industry supports about 133,000 jobs in the northeast of Scotland, or about half of all those
employed in the region, according to the local chamber of commerce.
Before the oil price accelerated its decline, the city’s fortunes were central to the debate about
Scotland’s future in an independence referendum on September 18. Voters decided by 55 per
cent to 45 per cent to remain in Britain.
Since then, talk has shifted away from the Scottish nationalists’ claim that the city would help
underpin Scotland’s economy and onto what can be done to protect jobs. At least 11,000 North
Sea jobs are at risk, according to the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce.
Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon, who heads the semi-autonomous government in
Edinburgh, wants to provide tax incentives to make it cheaper to extract oil and called on the UK
to act. The SNP forecast an average price of $110 a barrel in its budget projections for an
independent Scotland.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said on a trip to Aberdeen in January that the government
was in talks with companies on allowances to encourage investment.
Some jobs already have been lost. BP, ConocoPhillips and a venture between Talisman Energy
and Sinopec have announced hundreds of layoffs since last year. Companies are freezing wages
and reducing pay rates for the thousands of North Sea employees who work on short-term
contracts.
Project planner Jules Gardner and fellow contractor Mark Saunders are on contracts that can be
cancelled with little notice. Gardner reckons he has a 75 per cent chance of keeping his job this
year while Saunders, says he’s closer to 60 per cent. Both have had their pay rates cut.
The two started commuting to Aberdeen every week from outside London in 2012. Six months
ago, Gardner was making 78 pounds an hour, the equivalent of about 180,000 pounds a year. His
pay is now down about 30 per cent, he said, drawing a contrast with the days when he received
two pay increases and enjoyed spreading his cash around Aberdeen’s restaurants, curry houses
and pubs.
“It was a party town, a boom,” Gardner said. “I’d eat out three nights out of four. But I don’t do that
anymore.” Back on Union Street, diamond-seller Ozdaslar, originally from the town of Marmaris
on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, is trying to remain optimistic. “The oil price will go up,” he said.
“It cannot stay like that. It must go up.”

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
OPEC Delegates See Scant Hope Of Rapid Oil Price Recovery
Reuters + NewBase
Growing numbers of OPEC delegates say they expect no rapid recovery in oil prices, even as
the market shows signs of a tentative rally from near six-year lows.
One delegate from a country outside the Gulf and a relative price hawk in OPEC said he
doubted oil would revisit $100 a barrel this year or next, and that this should encourage less
dependence on oil revenue in national budgets.
“Based on supply and demand, the price for this year and next will probably not go beyond
$100,” the delegate told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “We have to get a lesson from
this. The budgets should not depend on a high oil price.”
The comments come as delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and external experts held secretive talks at its Vienna headquarters last week to
discuss the 12-country producer group’s long-term strategy. Such meetings do not set
production policy.
OPEC’s talks follow its November decision not to cut output despite misgivings from non-Gulf
members such as Iran. Back then, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies argued that the group
needed to ride out lower prices in order to defend market share.

The decision sent prices plunging, extending a decline that began in June and hurting the
economies of smaller producers in OPEC, which pumps a third of the world’s oil.
Brent crude has since recovered from a near six-year low around $45 hit in January. Even so,
a second delegate from a non-Gulf member was not optimistic about a rapid price rebound.
“What we want is to see the market recovering. Let’s wait until the second half of the year.
Then we’ll probably see prices in the range of $60 to $80,” said the delegate, from one of
OPEC’s four African members.
Other OPEC delegates, including some from Gulf members, said this week prices may stay
depressed until summer, although officials including Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri
have expressed confidence that prices may be bottoming out.
OPEC dropped price targets a decade ago. Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia’s endorsement
of $100 oil in 2012, however, gave rise to a general consensus within the group that it was a
fair level.
The group has given little indication of where it sees prices settling in the medium term,
although a third non-Gulf delegate said a price aspiration was needed — not so high that it
encouraged too much non-OPEC output, and not too low that it hurt higher-cost producers.
“We need to find a price level which could benefit all,” the delegate said. “No oil producer
should be driven out of the market as a result of lowering the prices deliberately.”
Oil majors better placed to ride out the downturn
By John Gapper, Financial Times + GulfNews + NewBase
If only oil-producing countries that got into trouble could merge, bring in fresh management, lay off
citizens, cut costs and restructure their operations. At this point in the energy cycle, betting on a
national merger wave similar to the corporate one that created supermajors such as ExxonMobil
and BP in the late 1990s would be a good investment.
Brazil could merge with Venezuela, helping to solve both the Petrobras scandal and the latter’s
lurch toward default. The UAE or Saudi Arabia could roll up Nigeria and Russia. Norway could
acquire Scotland from the UK.
But countries are not companies, for better or worse. Peaceful mergers are rare. Demergers and
spin-offs tend to be more common, along with the occasional hostile takeover and Russian bear
hug. Unlike shareholders, who tend to be a fairly dispassionate bunch, citizens have emotional
ties.
So here is another investment thesis: sell countries, buy companies. To be exact, short fragile oil
exporters, particularly those suffering from corruption and the resource curse, and buy the oil
majors. They both look painfully vulnerable to falling oil and gas prices but companies are better
at adjusting to a change in circumstances.
BP and BG, the UK oil and gas companies, both did so, applying the brakes sharply to capital
investment plans and declaring that the turn in the commodity cycle is like that of 1986, when the
price of crude oil dropped to $9 a barrel, having been stable at $30 for the previous three years.
This is no time for waiting and hoping for an energy price recovery, they declared.

Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, did a fine job of building a hopeful narrative out of a dire
situation. “You have got to make the chequebook balance and if you are in denial, the longer that
you don’t respond, the more difficulty you get into,” he told journalists. BP’s sale of $40 billion
(Dh147 billion) of assets to cover the $43 billion (so far) cost of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill
looks prescient in hindsight.
So far, BP and BG are at the aggressive end of the responses to a fall in the price of Brent crude
from more than $100 a barrel last June to about $56, after the recent rally. Exxon cruises onward
like a supertanker and Shell has announced only modest cuts to capital expenditure this year,
saying that it is “not overreacting”.
The other majors can change course any time they wish and will have a clear incentive to do so if
energy prices remain weak and tankers full of oil start to be berthed in terminals as storage. As
Dudley emphasised, maintaining dividends to investment funds that depend on them is “the first
priority” — developing fields in the Gulf of Mexico or off Brazil’s coast can wait.
Indeed, in terms of cash flow, oil companies can perform better in a downturn than in a boom,
when everyone from governments to rig workers and oil services companies takes a slice of the
action. When the oil price falls, they are in a better position to bargain.
“In an up cycle, everyone thinks the returns will be fantastic but it never quite happens,” says
Martijn Rats, an energy analyst at Morgan Stanley. The oil industry, given half a chance, is
inefficient and spendthrift. It loves to throw cash at new prospects, paying whatever it takes to
pump oil, only for the proceeds to be taxed heavily by opportunistic governments.
Morgan Stanley estimates that it cost the majors $72 to locate, develop, produce and pay tax on
each barrel in 2013-14 — more than the $69 they made in revenue. Over the previous decade,
taxes rose, wages outpaced the private sector average by 35 per cent, and labour productivity in
exploration halved: it took twice as many workers to produce each barrel of oil.
The more you waste, the easier it is to cut back. Not only can the majors reduce capital
expenditure by halting projects, but they can demand better terms. Oil services companies are
squeezed and governments are told that new fields will not open without tax breaks. The industry
cuts off its stakeholders to protect its shareholders.
This capacity to reduce costs quickly is beyond most countries, even those with well-managed
state oil producers and low-cost reserves. The fall in the oil prices depletes their tax receipts and
damages economies that rely heavily on the energy industry. They cannot easily adjust by
slashing public services and reducing the population.
Meanwhile, just as oil exporters need to raise extra revenue, the oil majors cut back capital
expenditure on new projects. Dudley estimates that the price fall equates to a $1.6 trillion shift in
value from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. Exporters cannot escape the
impact of that; they largely have to live with it.
In countries plagued by corruption, with officials taking bribes from oil companies, the problem is
even greater. Maria das Gracas Foster, chief executive of Petrobras, has resigned over a scandal
that has damaged Brazil’s economic growth. Moody’s estimates that Venezuela will face a $25
billion funding gap on its external debt by 2017.
In good times, companies and countries are both prone to the resource curse — there is enough
cash to give to rent-seekers without a danger of it running out. It is too tempting to sacrifice
efficiency for more oil. In bad times, companies repair the damage; countries are stuck with it.

China's foreign trade tumbles 11 per cent in January
BY PTI + NEWBASE
China's foreign trade tumbled 10.8 per cent to $341.16 billion in January, starting the new year on
a shaky note amid a slump of its exports and imports putting more pressure on the slowing
second largest economy of the world .
The overall trade dropped to 2.09 trillion
yuan ($341.16 billion) year on year in
January, China General Administration of
Customs (GAC) said on Sunday. Exports
dropped 3.2 per cent to 1.23 trillion yuan
and imports slumped 19.7 per cent to 860
billion yuan, making the trade surplus
expand 87.5 per cent to 366.9 billion yuan,
GAC data said, attributing the decline to
the Chinese Lunar year and Spring
Festival during which entire China grinds
to halt for over a fortnight
"Spring Festival impacts foreign trade data at the beginning of every year," state-run Xinhua news
agency quoted GAC as saying. The State Council, China's Cabinet, has approved the GAC to
release its trade data in yuan-denominated version since this year
Before 2014, the GAC mainly used the United States dollar in its trade data releases. It started to
use both the dollar and yuan to denominate all trade figures in 2014 in an effort to promote the
expansion in use of yuan
The trade decline continued as China's annual growth dropped down to a 24-year low of 7.4 per
cent last year. Fiscal revenue growth dropped to 8.6 per cent, a 23 year low, while the expenditure
rose 8.2 per cent. According to official data, the fiscal revenue stood at 14.04 trillion yuan ($2.3
trillion) compared to $2.11 trillion in 2013
China's economy grew 7.4 per cent last year — its weakest expansion in 24 years - due to
slowing domestic demand and a fragile global market. The fiscal revenue was hurt by weak
factory output,
consumption, investment and corporate profits, officials said
Besides posting its lowest growth since 1990, during which China grew to be second largest
economy, Chinese economy also missed the official target of 7.5 per cent in 2014 for the first time
in recent years rising concerns about a prolonged slowdown
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast said China's growth rate would fall below 7 this
year as it was expected to further decline to 6.8 this year and 6.3 next year
China is expected saddle with slower growth in fiscal revenue and rising fiscal expenditure, due to
a weakening economy, the country's urbanisation drive and industrial structure adjustments that
need funding, said Gao Peiyong, a fiscal expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
said recently

Oil crash to drag on booming Texas economy
AFP + NewBase
As the saying goes, everything is bigger in Texas. For the past five years, the economy of the
Lone Star State has outperformed the rest of the United States. But the collapse in oil prices has
left Texas facing its toughest test since the financial crisis.
A 50 percent tumble in oil prices since June has prompted companies such as Royal Dutch Shell
and Chevron to slash billions of dollars in worldwide investment. Oil services companies like
Schlumberger and Halliburton have announced thousands of job cuts.
So far, only a handful of petroleum companies have filed layoff notices in Texas this year, and the
Texas Workforce Commission actually reported an increase in mining jobs in December. Yet few
doubt what lies ahead for the second-biggest US state, by economic output and population, after
California.There will be "a major-league contraction in oil and gas activity in Texas," said Karr
Ingham, owner of Ingham Economic Reporting based in Amarillo in oil-rich West Texas. "Over the
coming months, the industry is going to shed jobs on a regular basis. We're very early in that
process ."
Boyd Nash-Stacey, senior economist at BBVA Research in Houston, predicted the downturn
would cost some 60,000-80,000 mining jobs in Texas, with an additional ripple effect on other
sectors such as retail and hospitality.
The oil slump already has begun to cool the real estate market in Houston, the fourth-biggest US
city and an economic powerhouse for most of the 2000s due in large part to the surging energy
industry. "It's a question of how bad it's going to get and for how long," said Charles Gordon, a
vice chairman of real estate firm CBRE in Houston. "The shock is how fast energy prices fell ."

Texas has been outpacing US growth for some time. In 2013, the Texas economy grew at an
annual clip of 3.7 percent compared with 2.2 percent for the whole economy, and in the prior year
its pace was more than double the national rate, according to US Commerce Department data.
-A repeat of 1986- ?
The throng of activity into older oil centers like the Permian Basin in West Texas and the newer
Eagle Ford shale in southern Texas has been a driver. Economists agree that matching that
flaming growth level will be impossible in 2015, but there is debate about just how bad things will
get.
JPMorgan Chase chief US economist Michael Feroli suggested in a December report that the
outlook for Texas was comparable to 1986, when a steep drop in oil prices was followed by deep
layoffs, big declines in the real-estate market and a banking crisis.
"Texas, will, at the least, have a rough 2015 ahead, and is at risk of slipping into a regional
recession," the report said. Given its huge size, "the prospect of a recession in Texas could have
some broader reverberations ."
But BBVA's Nash-Stacey said many parts of Texas, including big cities Dallas and San Antonio,
have limited exposure to oil and should benefit from the relief of lower gasoline prices.
Moreover, since the 1980s, the state has added a major technology center in the Austin area,
home to Dell, and built out the giant Texas Medical Center in Houston, which has significant
research programs for cancer and other diseases.
"It's not a death blow," Nash-Stacey said. "Texas isn't what it was in the 1980s ."
The Federal Reserve of Dallas
also expects positive economic
growth in 2015 in Texas.
"The bottom line is it's going to
cause growth to slow, but job
growth will remain positive," said
Keith Phillips, a senior economist
with the central bank division in
San Antonio. Ingham, the Amarillo
economist, agreed that Texas will
likely lodge some growth in 2015
statewide.
But Ingham predicted about a 10 percent contraction in the Midland-Odessa oil region, where
some 8,000 oil workers will lose jobs and all businesses are affected by the sector. Ingham said
oil companies will be cautious in the short run before hiring back staff, even if oil prices recover.
That could result in departures from oil towns like Midland.
"You're looking at at least 18 months out into the future before things start to look a little bit better
out there," Ingham said. "Who's in a position to ride that out in terms of not having a job and not
having income ?"

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile : +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 01 February 2015 K. Al Awadi

New base 536 special 09 february 2015

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