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Forecasting Technological Change (1)

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Paul Schumann
Paul Schumann

Part one of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers an introduction to technology forecasting.

TecnologiaNegócios
1 de 76
Forecasting Technological Change Session 1. Introduction & Surveillance Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
Sessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Sessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
1. Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
1. Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Description of Course ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
What is Technology? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
1. Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Technology Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
TF (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
TF (cont.) ,[object Object],06/07/09
Technology Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
TF (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Telecommunications 06/07/09 Source: Porter
Management ,[object Object],06/07/09
Management (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Management (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective
Rationale for TF ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
TF Applications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Technology Life Cycle 06/07/09 Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function S-Curve
Innovation Life Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Stages of Innovation 06/07/09 Source: Martino
Internet 06/07/09 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6 Stage 7
Internet History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Observations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Observations (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Observations (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Four Causes of Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Four Causes of Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Four Causes of Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Four Causes of Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Four Causes of Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
1. Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Surveillance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Surveillance Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Not moving, getting larger Not moving, getting smaller Moving away Moving tangentially Moving towards
Surveillance 06/07/09 Boundaries Model Information
From Noise to Wisdom 06/07/09 Creativity Diversity Methodology Conversation Facts History Dynamics/Structures Environment Wisdom Knowledge Data/Insight Noise
Surveillance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Intelligence is a prime requirement for successful technology management. Alan Porter
Surveillance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scanning ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scanning Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scanning Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Source: Sandia 50  m
Scanning With a Search Engine 06/07/09 www.kartoo.com
Search Engine Example 06/07/09
Search Engine Example 06/07/09
Search Engine Example 06/07/09
Search Engine Example 06/07/09
The World of Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Genomics Semiconductors MEMS Electronic Systems Mechanical Systems Electrical Systems Material Systems Molecular Construction
MEMS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) 06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) ,[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
MEMS Questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scanning Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Internet Security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Internet Security (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Internet Users ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Web Pages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Internet Security Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Surveillance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Data Analysis Methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Source: Alan Porter
Bibliometrics 06/07/09 Area of interest: Metric Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items Maturity: Topics receiving attention Source: Roger Hough
Data Mining (Anthrax) 06/07/09 Source: Oklahoma State University Technology Forecasting & Data Mining Team http://techforecast.okstate.edu
Patent Analysis 06/07/09 Source: Roger Hough
Surveillance Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Surveillance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Data, Insight Material Surveillance
Glocal Vantage, Inc. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Glocal Vantage, Inc.
Paul Schumann ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Glocal Vantage, Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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Forecasting Technological Change (1)

  • 1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 1. Introduction & Surveillance Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
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  • 18. TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
  • 19. Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Technology Life Cycle 06/07/09 Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function S-Curve
  • 23.
  • 24. Stages of Innovation 06/07/09 Source: Martino
  • 25. Internet 06/07/09 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6 Stage 7
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  • 35. A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
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  • 39. Surveillance 06/07/09 Boundaries Model Information
  • 40. From Noise to Wisdom 06/07/09 Creativity Diversity Methodology Conversation Facts History Dynamics/Structures Environment Wisdom Knowledge Data/Insight Noise
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  • 47. Scanning With a Search Engine 06/07/09 www.kartoo.com
  • 52. The World of Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Genomics Semiconductors MEMS Electronic Systems Mechanical Systems Electrical Systems Material Systems Molecular Construction
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  • 69. Bibliometrics 06/07/09 Area of interest: Metric Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items Maturity: Topics receiving attention Source: Roger Hough
  • 70. Data Mining (Anthrax) 06/07/09 Source: Oklahoma State University Technology Forecasting & Data Mining Team http://techforecast.okstate.edu
  • 71. Patent Analysis 06/07/09 Source: Roger Hough
  • 72.
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  • 76. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.