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Hans ehm
1. 12.0 0.0 8.9 12.0
Business Forecasting and Planning
7.18
6.80 summit 7.18
6.80
6.20 6.20
5.00 5.00
Challenges and innovative
solutions of Business Forecasting
and Planning
Amsterdam,
March 12th 2010
6.40 6.40
Hans Ehm
8.60 8.60
9.20 9.20
30. 12.0 0.0 8.9 12.0
7.18
6.80
6.20
Supply Chain Academy 7.18
6.80
6.20
5.00 5.00
The next generation of learning, teaching and knowledge gaining:
Training modules for the needed Know How for all personnel
Globally same Processes, Tools and Know How
Common understanding of S&OP and the entire Supply Chain
6.40 6.40
8.60 8.60
9.20 9.20
36. 12.0 0.0 8.9 12.0
What – If scenario
Could have a significant scrap be reduced based on
7.18
available information? No, people did a good job 7.18
6.80
Example of real and simulated inventory of one product with a sudden 6.80
drop of demand - simulated based on available Forecast and a given
6.20 6.20
5.00 leadtime of 16 weeks Despite best out of the given situation XY’0 5.00
€ needed to be scrapped
Real Stock Development
(16w FE+BE leadtime)
Simul stock development
(16w FE+BE leadtime)
€
Scrap of
>XY‘0 €
6.40 6.40
Time
8.60 8.60
9.20 22.05.2007 Page 36 9.20
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What – If scenario
but a significant scrap could have been reduced if we
7.18
were faster Start a speed program 7.18
6.80 6.80
6.20 Inventory development – real/simulated of 16 weeks 6.20
compared to 8 weeks one product 80% less scrap
5.00 5.00
Real Stock Development
Simul. stock development (16w FE+BE leadtime)
(8w FE+BE leadtime)
Simul. stock development
(16w FE+BE leadtime)
€
>80% less Scrap
if 8 weeks faster
2 weeks
6.40
faster ~ Z‘0 € 6.40
for scrap
Time
8.60 8.60
9.20 22.05.2007 Page 37 9.20
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Speed program - Strategy is to increase our speed to
7.18
customer and reduce FG inventory levels (postponement) 7.18
6.80 6.80
6.20 6.20
„All mistakes in forecasting end up in an inventory problem -
5.00
either lack of products (allocation) in an upturn or excess 5.00
inventory in a downturn“
~50% value add in
Backend
Reduce Finished
Wafer stock FAB SORT DIE BANK ASSY TEST DC
Goods inventory
Buffer/ Buffer/ Buffer/ levels.
Stock Stock Stock
Further increase
Build to Forecast Make to Order speed from Diebank
to customer.
Inc. SPEED from DIEBANK
Reduce overall
CT Frontend: 2-3 Months CT Backend: 3-5 Weeks leadtime.
6.40 6.40
Diversification is taking place during
Backend Production!
8.60
Diebank (Semi 8.60
finished Goods Finished Goods
9.20 22.05.2007 Page 38 9.20