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Police Workforce Planning
                                   in a Dynamic Environment


                                        Jeremy M. Wilson
                                    School of Criminal Justice
                                        jwilson@msu.edu
                                       September 18, 2012


© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 1
Agenda

            • Staffing supply and demand

            • Turnover and retention

            • Recruitment and selection

            • Consolidation




© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 2
Agenda

            • Staffing supply and demand

            • Turnover and retention

            • Recruitment and selection

            • Consolidation




© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 3
The Police Role is Expanding




© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 4
The Police Role is Expanding




© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 5
The Police Role is Expanding




© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 6
The Staffing Challenge is Dynamic




© 2012 Michigan State University                            Wilson- 7
Three Steps to Meeting Workforce Needs
          • Determine the staffing level
            needed to complete the task
            demands and performance
            objectives of a department
          • Determine the proper
            staffing structure that most
            cost-effectively meets the
            needs of a department
          • Selectively use recruiting
            and retention tools in a way
            that fosters the
            department’s goals, taking
            into account practical
            problems
© 2012 Michigan State University                Wilson- 8
A Bucket Approach to Framing the Police
                    Staffing Challenge
                                   Need/Demand

                  Allocation
                                                  Unmet
                                                 Demand
                  Staffing            Current
                  Deficit              Level




© 2012 Michigan State University                          Wilson- 9
There’s a Widening Hole in the Bucket




               Baby-Boom
               Retirements
                Changing                    Military
               Generational                 Call-ups
               Expectations
                                         Organizational
               Budget Crises             Characteristics
© 2012 Michigan State University                           Wilson- 10
The Faucet (Supply) is Tightening
          Decrease in
                                                   Expanded Skill
           Qualified
                                                   Requirements
         Applicant Pool

             Changing                              Uncompetitive
            Generational                             Benefits
            Preferences
                                                   Organizational
              Increased                            Characteristics
             Competition




© 2012 Michigan State University                                Wilson- 11
The Demand is Expanding




                                                        Homeland
                                                         Security
            Community
             Policing                                    Emerging
                                                          Crimes




© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 12
So What About the Recession?
             • Citing application booms and budget shortfalls, some
                  claim it has solved the staffing crisis
      Level

                                                                  Applicants




                                                              Resources


                                   Time since economic downturn                Wilson- 13
© 2012 Michigan State University
It’s Not Quite So Simple…
             • Those overwhelmed by applications struggle with
                  selection and question the long-term commitment of
                  applicants

             • Some agencies still report drops in applications and
                  staffing shortages

             • Systemic trends transcend shorter-term fluctuations in
                  the economy

             • Scarce resources necessitate decisionmakers learn how
                  to most cost-effectively build, maintain, and allocate
                  quality forces

             • Balance must be struck between recruitment and
                  retention to ensure a proper staffing distribution among
                  the ranks and through the experience continuum
© 2012 Michigan State University                                             Wilson- 14
Developing Evidence-Based Personnel
                        Planning Lessons
            • A 2008 national staffing survey of police agencies
                 with 300 or more officers (N=146)
                  – Nearly 10 months in the field
                  – Extensive follow-up and technical assistance

            • In all, 107 agencies responded, resulting in a 73
                 percent response rate

            • The response was favorable given the complexity
                 of the survey, but nonresponse was problematic for
                 some substantive areas


© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 15
Many Departments Suffer From Too Many
                    Junior Officers
              80                   10 or less YOS
                                   11 to 20 YOS
              70                   21 or more YOS

              60

              50
       %
              40

              30

              20

              10

                 0


                                                    Department


© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 16
Many Departments Suffer From Too Few
                       Junior Officers
              70                   10 or less YOS
                                   11 to 20 YOS
              60                   21 or more YOS

              50


        % 40

              30


              20


              10


                0


                                                    Department


© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 17
Departments Live With the Legacy of Past
                Personnel Decisions (1)




               %




                                               Years of Service
                                   On average, departments appear “healthy”
© 2012 Michigan State University                                              Wilson- 18
Departments Live With the Legacy of Past
                Personnel Decisions (2)




               %




                                         Years of Service
                        …But individually, many exhibit chaotic patterns
© 2012 Michigan State University                                           Wilson- 19
Healthy and Unhealthy Patterns Exist

                                   10 or less YOS
                                   11 to 20 YOS
                  80               21 or more YOS
                  70

                  60
        %
                  50

                  40

                  30

                  20

                  10

                    0
                               Average      A       B   C   D   E


© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 20
Why Do These Personnel Patterns Matter?
      • Cohorts progress through the organization over time
      • Unhealthy patterns can cause various administrative
          challenges that can undermine police effectiveness
               – Recruit and field training
               – Promotion assessment, frequency, and
                 competitiveness and motivation for career
                 progression
               – Budget consumption as cohort matures
               – Mass loss of staff and experience as cohort retires
      • Cohorts that differ from mean can start to oscillate
               – Year-to-year fluctuations can be difficult to control
                 with new recruits and recruitment and retention tools
© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 21
Even More Reason to Consider the Existing
        Cohort Structure When Making Major
                Personnel Decisions
              Personnel action                Junior heavy
                                     Substantially better, reduces
              Hiring freeze
                                            junior cohort
                                     Substantially better, reduces
              Academy cancellation
                                            junior cohort
              Not employing recruits Substantially better, reduces
              completing academy            junior cohort
                                     Substantially better, assuming
              Layoff
                                         least senior targeted
                                       Substantially worse, further
              Mandatory retirement
                                         reduces senior cohort
                                     Substantially worse, assuming
              Buy-out
                                         most senior targeted
                                     Moderately worse, maintains
              Furlough
                                               imbalance
                                     Substantially worse, assuming
              Unfilled attrition     greater attrition among senior
                                                  cohort

© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 22
Even More Reason to Consider the Existing
        Cohort Structure When Making Major
                Personnel Decisions
              Personnel action                Junior heavy                  Senior heavy                 Efficient
                                     Substantially better, reduces       Substantially worse,        Moderately worse,
              Hiring freeze
                                            junior cohort               reduces junior cohort      reduces junior cohort
                                     Substantially better, reduces       Substantially worse,        Moderately worse,
              Academy cancellation
                                            junior cohort               reduces junior cohort      reduces junior cohort
              Not employing recruits Substantially better, reduces       Substantially worse,        Moderately worse,
              completing academy            junior cohort               reduces junior cohort      reduces junior cohort
                                                                         Substantially worse,        Moderately worse,
                                     Substantially better, assuming
              Layoff                                                    assuming least senior      assuming least senior
                                         least senior targeted
                                                                              targeted                   targeted
                                       Substantially worse, further      Substantially better,       Moderately worse,
              Mandatory retirement
                                         reduces senior cohort          reduces senior cohort      reduces senior cohort
                                                                         Substantially better,       Moderately worse,
                                     Substantially worse, assuming
              Buy-out                                                   assuming most senior       assuming most senior
                                         most senior targeted
                                                                              targeted                   targeted
                                     Moderately worse, maintains          Moderately worse,         Substantially better,
              Furlough
                                               imbalance                 maintains imbalance         maintains balance
                                     Substantially worse, assuming       Substantially better,       Moderately worse,
              Unfilled attrition     greater attrition among senior   assuming greater attrition assuming greater attrition
                                                  cohort                 among senior cohort        among senior cohort

© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                                        Wilson- 23
Managing Police Workforces
                                      is a Delicate Process
            • It is important to distinguish workforce structures from
                 staffing levels
            • Goals for both workforce levels and structures must be
                 set
            • The factors that challenge the ability to meet workforce
                 goals are multi-dimensional, systemic, and local
            • Recruitment and retention tools are used to meet and
                 maintain these goals (not just staffing levels)
            • Many recruitment strategies have little measurable
            • This underscores the importance of maintaining proper
                 workforce balances that do not increase the oscillation of
                 workforce structures

© 2012 Michigan State University                                          Wilson- 24
Data Capacities Must be Improved to
             Facilitate Personnel Planning
       • Significant data limitations exist
          • Collection
          • Consistency
       • Data shortcomings hamper the development and
              application of basic, evidence-based tenets of
              personnel management
                 – Serious implications for hiring, training, budgeting,
                   promotion, and maintaining workforce structures
       • Investment in data and analysis is required to advance
              a ―police planning science‖ that can improve decision-
              making and efficiency

© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 25
Agenda

            • Staffing supply and demand

            • Turnover and retention

            • Recruitment and selection

            • Consolidation




© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 26
What is Turnover?

            • Turnover occurs when an employee leaves an
                 organization

            • Two major types
                      – Voluntary—employee terminates relationship
                         • AKA: unplanned, undesired, dysfunctional,
                           and avoidable
                      – Involuntary—employer terminates relationship
                         • AKA: planned, desired, functional, and
                           unavoidable



© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 27
How Can We Measure Turnover?
               Type of
                                   Formula
               Turnover
                                   Number of separations  number of
               Overall
                                   employees
                        (Number of separations – unavoidable
   •    Traditional measurement  number of employees
          Avoidable
                        separations)
                       (Number of separations – turnover
   • What is the difficulty in using general voluntary rate as an
      Involuntary
                                   separations)  number of employees
        exclusive measurement of employee retention?
                       Number of separations of employees with
          Recent hire  <2 years of experience  number of
   •    Should choose appropriate numeratorsexperience
                       employees with <2 years of
                                                      and
        denominators and otherof new hires this month  number
                       Number contextual information (e.g.,
          Cohort
        peers)         of new hires still on the job in 6 months


© 2012 Michigan State University                                        Wilson- 28
How Can We Measure Turnover?
               Type of
                                   Formula
               Turnover
                                   Number of separations  number of
               Overall
                                   employees
                                   (Number of separations – unavoidable
               Avoidable
                                   separations)  number of employees
                                   (Number of separations – voluntary
               Involuntary
                                   separations)  number of employees
                                   Number of separations of employees with
               Recent hire         <2 years of experience  number of
                                   employees with <2 years of experience
                                   Number of new hires this month  number
               Cohort
                                   of new hires still on the job in 6 months


© 2012 Michigan State University                                               Wilson- 29
Who Leaves?
     • Half the officers leaving large agencies are retirees, but
          only 20% leaving smaller agencies are retirees

     • 67% of departing officers in small agencies, and 33% of
          officers in large agencies, leave within 5 years or less

     • Nearly half of departing officers from small agencies, and
          about 25% from larger agencies, go on to other law
          enforcement work elsewhere
     Sources: Copeland, 2009; Lynch & Tuckey, 2004; Mitchell et al., 2001; Orrick, 2008




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                          Wilson- 30
Turnover is Multidimensional
  • Retention of employees has been described as the most
       pressing leadership challenge in policing (Copeland, 2009)

  • Does this hold true in the Great Recession?
            – Understanding factors that contribute to turnover
            – Consider the myriad costs of perpetually recruiting and
              retraining new employees (not just monetary)

  • Turnover occurs for reasons that may be singular (a
       specific incident) or cumulative (a culture or progression)

  • Communication is a crucial element in resolving problems
       before they occur

© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 31
Addressing Turnover
  • Police agencies often fail to offer the sort of (even low
       cost) strategies shown to combat turnover and increase
       employee engagement over the career course

  • What makes police agencies slow to address turnover?
            – Lack of understanding of the root causes

  • Has the Great Recession put police managers in denial?
  • What does turnover communicate about the department?



© 2012 Michigan State University                                Wilson- 32
Looking at Turnover Differently

        • Turnover can be both a positive and negative metric

        • How this activity is seen depends on the context of
             the event itself

        • How does the organization view the issue of staff
             mobility? Is it encouraged, or dreaded?

        • Practical issues arise
                  – Costs of replacement and training
                  – Negative impressions of organization
                  – Potential positive opportunities presented

© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 33
Potential Positive Effects of Turnover…
  • Some turnover may be desirable: low performers,
       troublemakers, those averse to change, and others

  • Reinvigoration of the organization’s knowledge base
            – New employees’ ideas stimulate older employees

  • Reinvigoration of the organization’s employee profile
            – More diversity, ―fresh faces‖, addition by subtraction

  • Low turnover may indicate that employees are unskilled
       and undesirable, and high turnover may indicate success
        – Consider a successful sports franchise when coaches
          are routinely ―poached‖ – what does that say?
© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 34
…And Potential Negative Effects
• Organizational stagnation due to high rates of turnover
          – Cohort effect is accentuated
          – Lack of experienced leadership

• ―When good (or great) people leave‖ – what this does
          – Those with critical skills and knowledge
          – Leaders and innovators
          – Professional development is stunted

• Turnover may stifle internal advancement opportunities,
     causing dissatisfaction and more turnover


© 2012 Michigan State University                              Wilson- 35
What Are the
             Costs of
            Turnover?




© 2012 Michigan State University   Wilson- 36
Cost Category   Cost Example
                                   Recruitment     Advertising
                                                   Recruiters’ salaries
                                                   Bonuses
                                   Selection       Tests
            What Are the                           Review-board salaries
                                                   Investigator salaries

             Costs of              New employee
                                                   Medical, psychological, and drug screening
                                                   Payroll and computer personnel

            Turnover?              Training
                                                   New uniforms and equipment
                                                   Orientation and field training
                                                   Recruit salaries and benefits
                                                   Field-trainer salaries
                                                   Supervision
                                                   In-service training
                                   Operating       Overtime to cover vacancies
                                                   Loss of productivity as employee departs
                                                   Increased further turnover
                                                   Peer disruption
                                                   Disruption of department operations
                                                   Missed deadlines
                                                   Increased further turnover
                                   Intangible      Loss of knowledge and experience
                                                   Disruption or loss of community relationships
                                                   Lower morale




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                   Wilson- 37
Why Do People Leave, Even Now?
            • Are newer generations of workers prone to frequent
                 career changes?

            • What is the relationship of salary and benefits to
                 turnover? How about employee engagement?

            • In an age of reduced external training opportunities
                 and hiring, how can agencies keep career pathways
                 robust and appealing to new officers?

            • Haarr (2005): Four historical theories
            • Lynch & Tuckey (2004): Five influences
            • Branham’s (2005): 7 reasons why employees leave
© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 38
Theoretical Explanations
     • Job dissatisfaction
               – Those who are dissatisfied voluntarily resign

     • Burnout theory
               – Burnout occurs gradually; stress is cumulative

     • Confluency theory
               – Specific events trigger turnover when the employee
                 realizes the organization is unsupportive

     • Cognitive dissonance
               – Turnover begins in the early stages of an officer’s
                 career through maladjustment and socialization
© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 39
Factors Affecting Dropout

  • Women and minority officers are more likely to resign
      from their positions due to a conflict between the
      ―idealized‖ impressions of police work they held prior to
      employment, and the ―realities‖ of their job and the
      socialization process

  • Female officers mention gender discrimination as pivotal

  • Small number of interviewees (n=34), but the sample
      follows recruits for over a year through training and
      probationary period; crucial findings for theoretical
      development and policy

© 2012 Michigan State University                               Wilson- 40
Five Influences

            • The pull of other opportunities elsewhere

            • A gap in actual or potential compensation

            • Personal or demographic characteristics

            • Negative organizational health or culture

            • Differential or changing employee needs

            • Both overall job satisfaction and agency
                 strategy/policy are involved here: a 2-way street

© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 41
“The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave” (1)
 • 1. The job or workplace was not what I expected
           – Expectations constitute a ―psychological contract‖
           – Creating realistic job expectations can alleviate this

 • 2. Job and person are mismatched
           – Workers are disengaged from their duties because the
             work itself feels ―beneath‖ the worker’s perceived value
           – The worker may feel unrewarded and underappreciated

 • 3. Too little coaching, mentoring, & performance feedback
           – There is no ―big picture‖ to the employee’s role, the
             direction the organization is going, and how the
             employee is performing within a broader context
© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 42
“The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave” (2)
 • 4. Limited opportunities for advancement
           – This is crucial for younger, Millennial applicants
           – Is it real, or perceived? Is there a difference?

 • 5. Feeling devalued and unrecognized
           – Does this always have to be related to job task?

 • 6. Work-life imbalance creates unwanted stress
           – The demands of police work become too demanding

 • 7. Loss of trust in leadership
           – Frequent turnover at the top, or constant messages
             that the organization is unstable or lacks integrity
© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 43
Are these “7 reasons” exclusive?
            • Unmotivated employees
            • Lack of skill-building supervision and mentoring
            • Culture of turnover: ―I can get my feet wet here‖
            • Ambiguous organizational expectations
            • Restricted external training opportunities
            • Lack of proactive, even symbolic recognition
            • Erosion of overall morale due to all of the above: a
                 ―vicious cycle‖
            Source: Sprafka & Kranda, 2008; Wilson et al, 2010

© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 44
“Quitting bosses”
  • One of the main reasons people leave is due to ineffective
       leadership, or perceived incompetent leadership

  • This can take many forms
            – Feelings of being undervalued possibly tied to specific
              cases of mismanagement
            – Failure to recognize specific employee contributions
              and employee commitment
            – Breaking the psychological contract through poor
              employee relations

  • May be compounded by the perception that the situation
       cannot be resolved and is permanent
© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 45
Strategies that Combat Turnover (1)
           • Conduct ―exit‖/―stay‖ interviews to learn and be
             proactive
           • Mentoring and ―colleague counsel‖
              – Balancing autonomy and mentorship
              – Expanded FTO programs
              – Mentoring throughout all levels of the agency, not
                just patrol, to expand preview
           • Educational incentives and ―career ladders‖
              – Tuition assistance
              – Increase external training opportunities
              – Differential pay for advancement such as FTO
              – Differential pay for educational attainment
              – Build challenges and variety into the career path
© 2012 Michigan State University                                 Wilson- 46
Strategies that Combat Turnover (2)
      • Perks
                – Housing assistance in rural and urban areas
                – Transportation subsidies and take-home vehicles
                – Days-off and other symbolic but helpful recognitions

      • Employee engagement strategies
                –     Provide realistic & helpful feedback
                –     Increased external training opportunities
                –     Differential pay for advancement such as FTO
                –     Differential pay for educational attainment
                –     Give employees a legitimate voice and role in
                      decision-making
© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 47
Strategies that Combat Turnover (3)
      • Employee recognition
                – Meetings, rituals, events, but make them meaningful
                – Rewards, even monetary
                – High-profile meetings and visits

      • Scheduling and job flexibility
                – Flexible scheduling
                – Job-sharing: creating hours and positions to suit
                  these employee needs
                – Work-life partnerships such as child-care scheduling

                Sources: Fitzgerald, 2006; Konrad & Mangel, 2000; Kowal et al., 2008; Levin-
                Epstein, 2006; Mitchell et al., 2001; Prince, 2003; Robinson et al., 2006

© 2012 Michigan State University                                                               Wilson- 48
Embracing Multidirectional Career Paths

            • What do these solutions mean for the organization?
                      – Rethinking police organization's role in the lives
                        of the employees and families
                      – Improving the way the career and expectations
                        are communicated to employees
                      – Necessitating transparency and equity
                      – Eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy
                      – Management and supervisors held accountable
                        for implementation of solutions to overall
                        turnover plan
                      – A new organizational culture
                      Source: Wilson et al., 2010

© 2012 Michigan State University                                             Wilson- 49
Agenda

            • Staffing supply and demand

            • Turnover and retention

            • Recruitment and selection

            • Consolidation




© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 50
Why is Recruitment Important to You?

            • Meet staff demand

            • Improve performance

            • Reduce liability

            • Provide for future leadership

            • Costly

            • Time consuming

            • Meeting organizational goals
© 2012 Michigan State University                       Wilson- 51
Who Seeks Police Employment?

            • Those inherently interested in the position

            • Those who aren’t particularly interested in the
                 position and view it as
                  – A general employment opportunity among
                    others
                  – Their only employment opportunity

            • Those interested in using the position as a stepping
                 stone to another career option


                                   Why is this important?
© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 52
Motivations for the Profession
            • Job security
            • Opportunity to help—―make a difference‖
            • Retirement plan
            • Health benefits
            • Excitement
            • Advancement opportunities
            • Fight crime
            • Comraderie
            • Variety of work
© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 53
Who Do You Seek?
            • Mentally and physically fit

            • Clean criminal and substance use record

            • Educated

            • Generate attributes

            • General skills

            • Long-term commitment
              What specific skills/attributes might be desired in
                  an era of community policing, the threat of
              terrorism, globalization, and shrinking resources?
© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 54
Selection Criteria

            • Standards
                      – Qualifiers
                      – Disqualifiers

            • Targets
                      – Attributes
                      – Skills

            • Selecting out vs. selecting in



© 2012 Michigan State University                          Wilson- 55
Minimum Education Requirements in Large
               Police Departments

                                     Education requirement (n=107)        Proportion
                                            Four-year college degree         0.03
                                            Two-year college degree          0.05
                                                  46-60 credit hours         0.11
                                                  31-45 credit hours         0.02
                                                     1-30 credit hours       0.03
                                    High school diploma or equivalent        0.77
                                     No formal education requirement         0.00

                                   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                       Wilson- 56
Minimum Qualifications in
                                     Large Police Departments
                                               General requirement (n=107)          Proportion
                                                          Psychological test           0.99
                                                                Medical test           0.99
                                                             Drivers license           0.98
                                                                  US citizen           0.97
                                                               Pass vision test        0.93
                                                            Physical agility test      0.91
                                                          Any age requirement          0.79
                                                                 Polygraph test        0.79
                                     No dishonorable discharge from military           0.66
                                                                          Other        0.37
                                                               Local residency         0.29
                                                     Police academy graduate           0.15
                                                                  Non-smoker           0.08
                                                            Weight restrictions        0.05
                                                             Height restrictions       0.00
                                   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010
© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                 Wilson- 57
Disqualifiers in Large Police Departments
                                                    Disqualification (n=107)       Proportion
                                                           Felony conviction          0.93
                                                   Suspended drivers license          0.93
                                         Any serious misdemeanor conviction           0.81
                                           Excessive points on driving record         0.79
                                            Termination from law enforcement          0.72
                                                                Felony arrest         0.65
                                                   Substance abuse conviction         0.60
                                        Substance abuse arrest within 2 years         0.57
                                                               Poor credit score      0.47
                                                      Substance abuse arrest          0.46
                                                   Felony arrest within 2 years       0.43
                                                                Prior drug use        0.32
                                                  Any misdemeanor conviction          0.19
                                                                          Other       0.31
                                   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010


© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                Wilson- 58
Groups Targeted by Large Police Departments

                                             Recruitment target (n=105)       Proportion
                                                 Racial/ethnic minorities        0.80
                                                                    Women        0.74
                                                       College graduates         0.67
                                                         Military veterans       0.65
                                                  Prior police experience        0.53
                                              Foreign language speakers          0.50
                                                                      None       0.12
                                                        Physically disabled      0.02
                                                                      Other      0.04

                                   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                           Wilson- 59
Methods of Recruitment in Large Police
        Departments—Advertising and Interaction
                                                Recruiting method (n=107)        Proportion
                                                                 Career fairs       0.94
                                                                      Internet      0.89
                                                                Newspapers          0.81
                                                  Community organizations           0.79
                                                           College outreach         0.75
                                                               Walk-in office       0.71
                                                                      Posters       0.69
                                                        Military installations      0.65
                                                  Explorer/cadet program            0.63
                                                                     Radio          0.61
                                                    High school outreach            0.52
                                                      College internships           0.52
                                                               Magazines            0.48
                                                                Television          0.45
                                                                Billboards          0.34
                                                            Mass mailings           0.32
                                          Open house at police department           0.29
                                                                     Other          0.28
© 2012 Michigan State University   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010                       Wilson- 60
Compensation, Population, and Crime
                  Influence the Supply of Applicants

                                                MODEL: 2007 Police Applicants (ln)
                              Core Econometric Model                          Coefficient
                              Starting salary (ln)                              0.869**
                              Population (ln)                                  0.786***
                              Average annual community wage (ln)                 0.135
                              Unemployment rate (ln)                             0.353
                              Vacancies (ln)                                     0.001
                              N = 70, R-Square = .54                 *p ≤.05, **p ≤.10, ***p ≤.001



                               Property, violent, and total crime also was
                                positively associated with applications


© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                     Wilson- 61
…But Little Evidence That
                                   Police Strategies Mattered
            • Modeling illustrated that strategies are consistently
                 unassociated with applications

            • Tested various samples
                      – all, white, minority, male, and female

            • Tested various strategies
                      – Number of recruiters and recruiting budget
                      – Advertising
                      – Incentives



© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 62
Recruit Rank-Order of Motivations
                               for their Application
                                      Top 10                                 Remaining 11
            Friend/family who works/ worked in same agency        Military installation
            Friend/family who works/ worked in different agency   Radio ad
            Internet ad                                           Explorer and/or cadets program
            Friend/family not in law enforcement                  College outreach
            Experience working with the agency in another capacity College internships
            Newspaper ad                                           Walk-in-office
                                                                   Open house at police
            Career fair
                                                                   department
            Billboard                                              Community organization
            Television ad                                         Magazine/journal ad
            Posters                                               Mass mailing
                                                                  High school outreach
               Source: Castaneda & Ridgeway, 2010




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                             Wilson- 63
Methods of Recruitment in Large Police
                   Departments—Incentives
                                           Recruitment incentive (n=106)       Proportion
                                                         Uniform allowance        0.95
                                                      Salary during training      0.82
                                        Reimbursement for college courses         0.73
                                                    Pay rate by assignment        0.62
                                         Salary increase for college degree       0.56
                                                  Paid academic expenses          0.45
                                                             Take-home car        0.41
                                                                     Tuition      0.13
                                                   Health club membership         0.13
                                                              Signing bonus       0.09
                                                         Mortgage discount        0.09
                                                                 Other cash       0.08
                                                Academy graduation bonus          0.07
                                                     Relocations expenses         0.05
                                     Schedule preference for taking courses       0.05
                                                           Housing stipend        0.00
                                                                      Other       0.39
                                                                       None       0.01
© 2012 Michigan State University   Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010                     Wilson- 64
Reflecting the Community
      • General consensus is police should reflect community
                – President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and
                  Administration of Justice (1967)
                – Kerner Commission (1968)
                – Commission on Accreditation for Law Enforcement
                  Agencies (1999)
                   • Standard 31.2.1: ―The agency has ethnic and
                     gender composition in the sworn law enforcement
                     ranks in approximate proportion to the makeup of
                     the available work force in the law enforcement
                     agency’s service community, or a recruitment
                     plan pursuant to standard 31.2.2‖
                – Nationally representative survey of Americans
                  (Weitzer & Tuch, 2004)

© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 65
Why Should the Police Reflect the
                                 Community?
            • There are circumstances where race/ethnicity could
                 enhance performance (?)
                      – NOT according to the National Research
                        Council: ―[W]hatever influence race and gender
                        may exert on behavior is overwhelmed by the
                        unifying effects of occupational socialization‖
                        (Skogan & Frydl, 2004, p. 147)




© 2012 Michigan State University                                          Wilson- 66
Why Should the Police Reflect the
                                 Community?
            • There are circumstances where race/ethnicity could
                 enhance performance (?)
            • There should be equal opportunity for all,
                 regardless of race and gender to become officers
                      – ―A department can show convincingly that it
                        does not practice racial discrimination by
                        recruiting minority-group officers, assigning
                        them fairly to duties…, and by pursuing
                        promotion policies that are scrupulously fair…‖
                        (President’s Commission, 1967, p. 261).



© 2012 Michigan State University                                          Wilson- 67
According to the 2000 Census




© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 68
How Well Do the Police Reflect the
                                  Community?
            • Historically, police largely comprised of white
                 males, but has been changing over time




© 2012 Michigan State University   Source: LEMAS, 2007          Wilson- 69
Race/Ethnicity Representation Varies by
                       Community Size

                                                            Asian/    American
                                    Black/African Hispanic/ Pacific Indian/Alaska Multi-
            Population served White   American     Latino Islander      Native    race
            All sizes                74.7%   11.9   10.3       2         0.7        0.3
            1,000,000 or more          56    17.6   22.9      3.2        0.3         0
            500,000 - 999,999         60.6   24.1    9.3      4.1        0.4        1.6
            250,000 - 499,999         69.5   16.5   11.2       2         0.6        0.1
            100,000 - 249,999         73.7   13.4    9.1      2.6        0.9        0.3
            50,000 - 99,999           83.6     7     7.5      1.4        0.3        0.3
            25,000 - 49,999           88.2     5     5.1      0.9        0.6        0.2
            10,000 - 24,999           87.5    5.6    5.1      0.6         1         0.2
            2,500 - 9,999             87.9    5.1    4.4      0.6        1.8        0.1
            Under 2,500               88.3    5.8     3       0.1        2.3        0.5
               Source: LEMAS, 2007



© 2012 Michigan State University                                                          Wilson- 70
Gender Representation Varies by
                                  Community Size
                                           Male (%)   Female (%)
                100
                 90
                 80
                 70
                 60
                 50
                 40
                 30
                 20
                 10
                  0




                     Source: LEMAS, 2007

                  What does all of this variation mean for recruitment?
© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 71
Recruitment “Messaging”

            • Motivations for the profession
                      – Service, variety, excitement, benefits, etc.

            • Incentives
                      – Signing bonus, tuition reimbursement, etc.

            • Image of the department and profession
                      – Brand and story—what makes it unique




© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 72
Compare Recruiting Strategies Online

            • LAPD, LVMPD, Tacoma, Orlando, NJSP & your own
            • What is your first reaction?
            • How easy are they to navigate?
            • How comprehensive is the information?
            • What images are evoked?
            • What do you think it would be like to work there?
            • Which one sparks your interest most and why?
            • What might explain the differences?
© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 73
Agenda

            • Staffing supply and demand

            • Turnover and retention

            • Recruitment and selection

            • Consolidation




© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 74
Public Safety
                                     Consolidation:
                                   Ready or Not, Here it
                                        Comes…




© 2012 Michigan State University                      Wilson- 75
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • Keys to success

            • From anecdote to evidence
© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 76
Our Decentralized Law Enforcement System

            • About 18,000 state and local law enforcement
                 agencies in the US
                  – Much different from other countries: Canada 80,
                    England 40, Japan 50

            • Approximately 765,000 sworn personnel

            • About 49% of agencies employ less than 10 full-
                 time officers

            • Two out of three officers work for agencies with 100
                 or more sworn officers

© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 77
Fragmentation is Good…

            • Local control

            • Community reflection

            • Career choices

            • Bigger is not necessarily better




© 2012 Michigan State University                            Wilson- 78
… and Bad

            • Offenders do not recognize jurisdictional
                 boundaries

            • Crime control strategy should be more regional

            • Peer emulation

            • Duplication of administration, facilities,
                 communications, equipment, etc.

            • Requires more resources/police officers


© 2012 Michigan State University                               Wilson- 79
Why is the Provision of Public Safety So
                         Challenging?
     • Generally the largest portion of a community’s budget

     • Costs have risen substantially over time

     • Personnel costs typically represent eighty to ninety
         percent of a police or fire budget

     • Collective bargaining agreements often reduce
         management flexibility (e.g., minimum staffing)

     • Public safety employees have garnered public support
         for maintaining the status quo
© 2012 Michigan State University                               Wilson- 80
The Profound Effect of the Economy

     • For many, standard responses—that is, cuts at the
         margin—have not been enough
     • Traditional reluctance to cut public safety has given way
         to dramatic and unprecedented decisions—all options
         are on the table
              – Hiring freezes, lay-offs, furloughs, ―org death,‖…
     • Considerable experimentation in the substantive delivery
         of public safety services




© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 81
“Experimentation” has Taken Many Forms
            • Functional Consolidation: Two or more agencies
                 combine functional units like communications, crime
                 lab, or SWAT team
            • Regionalization: A number of agencies combine to
                 police a geographic area
            • Metropolitan: Two or more agencies serving
                 overlapping jurisdictions join together
            • City-County Consolidation: A city and county
                 consolidate their entire governments
            • Contracting: Small and medium-sized communities
                 contract with a larger agency for police services
            • Local Merger: Two separate agencies form a single, new
                 entity
© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 82
Functional Consolidation

            • Combined Dispatch

            • Regional Drug and Vehicle Theft Groups

            • Major Crime Task Forces
                      – Will County, IL: 37 agencies

            • Major Crash Assistance Team (MCAT)

            • Regional SWAT Team



© 2012 Michigan State University                              Wilson- 83
Regional Policing

            • Northern York County Regional Police Department
                      –     Formed in 1972
                      –     2 Boroughs, 6 Townships
                      –     50 sworn officers
                      –     Each municipality selects a commissioner

            • About 30 regional agencies in PA




© 2012 Michigan State University                                       Wilson- 84
Metropolitan Police

            • Nashville

            • Las Vegas

            • Louisville

            • Indianapolis




© 2012 Michigan State University                         Wilson- 85
City County Consolidated

            • UNI-Gov in Indianapolis

            • Jacksonville - Duval County Florida

            • City and County of Broomfield Colorado
                      – City of Broomfield and portions of four counties




© 2012 Michigan State University                                           Wilson- 86
Contracting

            • Generally offered by sheriff

            • King County Washington
                      – Emphasis on local control

            • Los Angeles County
                      – 40 cities, 2M residents

            • RCMP




© 2012 Michigan State University                    Wilson- 87
Pros and Cons of Contracting

                                      Pro                           Con

              Lower cost                           Loss of local control

              Specific services can be obtained    Quality of service may be diminished

              May provide higher quality service   May have to compete for resources

              May be better trained and equipped   Costs will increase

              County absorbs risk                  Difficult to reestablish department

                                                   What happens to employees?




© 2012 Michigan State University                                                         Wilson- 88
Local Merger

            • Winter Park/Fraser Police Colorado 2005
                      – Winter Park serves as the managing partner
                      – Winter Park is responsible for paying all bills
                      – Winter Park is responsible for managing all
                        employment matters, insurance, and other
                        related matters
                      – All personnel are employees of Winter Park
                      – The Police Chief reports directly to the Fraser
                        Town Manager and Winter Park Town Manager
                      – All police officers are sworn to serve and
                        protect both municipalities

© 2012 Michigan State University                                          Wilson- 89
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • From anecdote to evidence


© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 90
There is Considerable Variation in Public
                     Safety Consolidation

                                   • Full integration of police and fire services
                                   • Cross-trained public safety officers
                    Full           • Consolidated management and command



                                   • Partial integration of police and fire services
                                   • Cross-trained public safety officers exist alongside
                                     separate functional personnel
                Partial            • Consolidation occurs within administrative ranks



                                   • Police and fire services are not integrated
                                   • Consolidation generally limited to the chief executive
             Nominal


© 2012 Michigan State University                                                              Wilson- 91
Highland Park, Texas
                                   Est. 1977 (with roots to 1913), Pop. 9,000

                                                       Director of Public
                                                            Safety



                   Office of the        Operations                                            Support Services
                     Director            Bureau                                                   Bureau


                         Community                                 Criminal
                                                                                      Communications        Administrative
                          Relations          A Shift            Investigations                                                   Training Division
                                                                                         Division          Services Division
                          Division                                 Division


                       Accreditation/                                                                           Administration        EMS Education
                                             B Shift                 Investigators           Dispatch
                       Crime Analyst                                                                              Secretary             Contractor



                                                                                                               Support Services
                                             C Shift                Property Room         Alarm Services
                                                                                                                   Officer



                                                                                                               School Crossing
                                                                      Court Bailiff       Records Clerk
                                                                                                                   Guards



        • 222 Index crimes in 2010 (2,373 per 100,000 residents)
        • 38 of 54 PSO’s cross-trained police, fire, and paramedic
        • PSO’s work 24-hour shifts—rotating functions
© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                                                                      Wilson- 92
Sunnyvale, California
                               Est. 1950, Pop. 140,000 (230,000 daytime)
                                                                          Chief




                                                                                                                               Mgmt Analyst
                                                                                        Internal                                Budget
                                         Deputy Chief                  Deputy Chief      Affairs         Deputy Chief
                                           Police                         Fire                         Special Operations      Personnel
                                                                                                                               Services


                         Captain Police         Captain Police     Captain Fire
                           Team A                 Team B            Team A               Captain                         Captain
                                                                                      Special Operations              Strategic Services

                                                   Police Admin   Captain Fire
                        Traffic Safety              Lieutenant     Team B                Vehicle Abatement                  Communications
                                                                                            Office of
                                                                  Captain Fire             Emergency                         Recruitment
                                                                    Team C                  Services

                                                                   Fire Env.              Neighborhood                        Training
                                                                   Services               Preservation                      Police/Fire/EMS

                                                                                          Investigations                    Grants Licenses &
  • 2,396 Index crimes in 2010 (1,787 per 100,000                                                                              Permits
       residents)                                                                        Crime Prevention                   Records/Property/
                                                                                                                              Evidence
  • All 195 PSO’s cross-trained police, fire, and EMT                                        Animal
                                                                                             Control
  • Police personnel work 11-hour shifts, fire
       personnel work 24-hour shifts—assigned functions
© 2012 Michigan State University                                                                                                           Wilson- 93
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • From anecdote to evidence


© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 94
Consolidation Exists Throughout the US, and
           Appears to be on the Rise
    • Currently, we’ve identified 132 agencies
         that have consolidated public safety at
         least nominally
              – Spread across the US
                        • Michigan leads with 56, next most
                            is South Carolina with 9
              – Small and medium-sized agencies
              – Rural and urban communities
              – Form of implementation varies
                  This is a living list that frequently changes
© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 95
Many have Abandoned Consolidation…Yet
        Many Others are Actively Considering It
       • We’ve identified several agencies that have abandoned
            consolidation—there are likely more
             – Various reasons cited
                • Expanded responsibilities resulted in perceived
                  need for greater specialization
                • Perceived need to increase communication and
                  stature of each function within city government
       • We’ve identified several communities throughout the
            US considering the model—there are likely more
             – Consolidations are regularly occurring
                           It’s critical to understand the contexts of both
                                          successes and failures
© 2012 Michigan State University                                              Wilson- 96
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • From anecdote to evidence


© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 97
Consolidation May Increase Efficiency
  • Responding officer can comprehensively assess and
       direct response to situations
  • Reduced total need for line staff
     • More staff continuously available to respond to calls
     • Fire industry is changing from fire suppression to EMS
         – From 1983-2010, fires fell by 43% while fire fighters
                         increased 48% (and fire departments increased 7%)
                    – From 1980-2010, medical aid increased 260%
  • Reduced duplication of administrative, communications,
       and physical infrastructure
                                     Example
    Traverse City employs 56 fire and police personnel, 43% more than the
    average public safety department in Michigan communities of a similar size
© 2012 Michigan State University                                           Wilson- 98
Consolidation May Promote
            Community Policing and Service Quality
       • Fully, comprehensively trained professional on scene of
            every incident
       •    Increased access to staff and flexibility in its deployment
       •    Freed up time for officers to work in the community
       •    Expanded role of police officers to include activities
            generally favored by the public
              – Satisfaction of fire services often greater than police
                services, and fire profession is often the most
                respected
       •    Expanded role attracts officers with a broader skill set
       •    Through improved efficiency, consolidation may keep
            community policing activities from being reduced and
            eliminated
© 2012 Michigan State University                                   Wilson- 99
Consolidation May Enhance Comprehensive
     Community Safety and Homeland Security
                  Preparedness
            • Enhanced communication
            • Unity of command structure
            • All-inclusive emergency response
                 and planning
            • Comprehensive training




© 2012 Michigan State University                 Wilson- 100
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • Keys to success

            • From anecdote to evidence
© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 101
Perceived Costs to Consolidation
       • Up-front costs can be prohibitive
                – Increased training and backfilling staff during training
                – Branding, uniforms, equipment and vehicles
                – Immediate cost savings often not realized
       • In-service training requirements to maintain certifications
       • Contracts
                – Labor and facilities
       • Reorganization pain
                – Planning for structure, positions, and people
       • Perceived or actual decline in service quality
       • Exacerbation of existing management problems
© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 102
Opposition to Consolidation
      • Organized labor
                – In select areas, organized labor has succeeded in
                  blocking consolidation efforts by changing local and
                  state statutes, charters and pension regulations

      • Citizens
                – Some locales have exhibited fears of a deterioration
                  in either police or fire services, or both

      • Administrators
                – Cultural and organizational changes needed may run
                  up against opposition
                – Confusion and ambiguity about administrative roles

© 2012 Michigan State University                                    Wilson- 103
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • Keys to success

            • From anecdote to evidence
© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 104
Why Do Consolidations Fail? (1)
            • Citizens value local control

            • Most public safety executives and staff are content
                 with their organizations and see no particular benefit
                 to change—personal stake

            • Organizations, even small ones, tend to place great
                 emphasis on their unique identity—culture matters

            • Strong opposition from employee groups

            • Expected cost savings are often not realized,
                 particularly in the short-run

© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 105
Why Do Consolidations Fail? (2)
            • Public perception soured over time/decline in service
                 quality

            • Perception of need for greater specialization due to
                 changing workload

            • Perception of need to elevate public safety services
                 within city government




© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 106
Keys to Success

                                           • Focus on quality

                                           • Political support

                                           • Inclusive planning

                                           • Time for
                                            implementation




© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 107
Agenda

            • Context and overview

            • Public safety models

            • Prevalence

            • Perceived benefits

            • Perceived costs

            • Keys to success

            • From anecdote to evidence
© 2012 Michigan State University            Wilson- 108
Existing Information is Problematic


                                                       Despite the
                                                   tremendous need,
                                                    practitioners and
                                                 decision-makers have
                                                 few systematic, data-
                                                     driven lessons

             • What we know is largely anecdotal
             • Current knowledge is based upon scattered and
               dated case studies
             • Many questions remain about the options for and
               feasibility of public safety consolidation, and the
               factors associated with success and failure
© 2012 Michigan State University                                     Wilson- 109
Introducing the New Research Institute on
       Police Consolidation and Shared Services
                       (RIPCaSS)




       • Administered by the MSU
            School of Criminal Justice

       • Staffed with seasoned,
            well-respected scholars



© 2012 Michigan State University              Wilson- 110
The Goals of RIPCaSS Are Lofty But Critical

            • Develop concrete, research-based lessons about
                 the nature, structure, function and implementation
                 of all forms of consolidation and shared services
                 within local context for understanding their short
                 and long-term costs and benefits
                      – When do they work and when don’t they?
            • Promote fact-based awareness and decision-
                 making
            • Serve as a resource


© 2012 Michigan State University                                      Wilson- 111
Many Field-Driven, Multi-dimensional
                  Activities Are Already Underway (1)
            • Creating an online portal for existing resources,
                 information and networking

            • Case studies of consolidated and deconsolidated
                 public safety agencies

            • Developing a national public safety agency census
            • Residential opinion survey of public safety
                 satisfaction

            • Media content analysis of public safety
                 consolidation communication strategies
© 2012 Michigan State University                                  Wilson- 112
Many Field-Driven, Multi-dimensional
                   Activities Are Already Underway (2)
            • Focus group summit and case studies on merging
                 policies in consolidations

            • Review of facilitating labor-management
                 consolidation discussions

            • Analysis of utilizing non-sworn staff
            • Trainings, technical assistance and outreach




© 2012 Michigan State University                               Wilson- 113
We’ll Leverage and Develop Numerous
Resources for Law Enforcement Stakeholders
    • BOLOs
    • Executive primers
    • Practitioner guides
    • Training webinars
    • Professional and
         journal articles

    • Various other
         publication and
         training resources
© 2012 Michigan State University       Wilson- 114
Our Experience Thus Far…
     • Consolidation is a divisive issue and stakeholders fall
         along a continuum
              – Adamant opposition
                        • Assumptions and misunderstandings are common
                        • Positions frequently based on qualitative
                             judgment/emotion as opposed to facts/evidence
              – Unaware—blissfully or frantically
              – Very supportive within context of practical realities
                        • Many examples of it working
     • Skeptics and champions have made themselves known
     • A tremendous need exists for resources to inform
         discourse and decision-making – regular calls for help
© 2012 Michigan State University                                         Wilson- 115
Thank you!




                                   For more information, contact

                                       Jeremy M. Wilson
                                    School of Criminal Justice
                                       jwilson@msu.edu
                                         (517)353-9474             Wilson- 116
© 2012 Michigan State University
Thank you!




                                   For more information, contact

                                       Jeremy M. Wilson
                                    School of Criminal Justice
                                       jwilson@msu.edu
                                         (517)353-9474             Wilson- 117
© 2012 Michigan State University

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Police workforce planning in a dynamic environment

  • 1. Police Workforce Planning in a Dynamic Environment Jeremy M. Wilson School of Criminal Justice jwilson@msu.edu September 18, 2012 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 1
  • 2. Agenda • Staffing supply and demand • Turnover and retention • Recruitment and selection • Consolidation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 2
  • 3. Agenda • Staffing supply and demand • Turnover and retention • Recruitment and selection • Consolidation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 3
  • 4. The Police Role is Expanding © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 4
  • 5. The Police Role is Expanding © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 5
  • 6. The Police Role is Expanding © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 6
  • 7. The Staffing Challenge is Dynamic © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 7
  • 8. Three Steps to Meeting Workforce Needs • Determine the staffing level needed to complete the task demands and performance objectives of a department • Determine the proper staffing structure that most cost-effectively meets the needs of a department • Selectively use recruiting and retention tools in a way that fosters the department’s goals, taking into account practical problems © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 8
  • 9. A Bucket Approach to Framing the Police Staffing Challenge Need/Demand Allocation Unmet Demand Staffing Current Deficit Level © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 9
  • 10. There’s a Widening Hole in the Bucket Baby-Boom Retirements Changing Military Generational Call-ups Expectations Organizational Budget Crises Characteristics © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 10
  • 11. The Faucet (Supply) is Tightening Decrease in Expanded Skill Qualified Requirements Applicant Pool Changing Uncompetitive Generational Benefits Preferences Organizational Increased Characteristics Competition © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 11
  • 12. The Demand is Expanding Homeland Security Community Policing Emerging Crimes © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 12
  • 13. So What About the Recession? • Citing application booms and budget shortfalls, some claim it has solved the staffing crisis Level Applicants Resources Time since economic downturn Wilson- 13 © 2012 Michigan State University
  • 14. It’s Not Quite So Simple… • Those overwhelmed by applications struggle with selection and question the long-term commitment of applicants • Some agencies still report drops in applications and staffing shortages • Systemic trends transcend shorter-term fluctuations in the economy • Scarce resources necessitate decisionmakers learn how to most cost-effectively build, maintain, and allocate quality forces • Balance must be struck between recruitment and retention to ensure a proper staffing distribution among the ranks and through the experience continuum © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 14
  • 15. Developing Evidence-Based Personnel Planning Lessons • A 2008 national staffing survey of police agencies with 300 or more officers (N=146) – Nearly 10 months in the field – Extensive follow-up and technical assistance • In all, 107 agencies responded, resulting in a 73 percent response rate • The response was favorable given the complexity of the survey, but nonresponse was problematic for some substantive areas © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 15
  • 16. Many Departments Suffer From Too Many Junior Officers 80 10 or less YOS 11 to 20 YOS 70 21 or more YOS 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 Department © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 16
  • 17. Many Departments Suffer From Too Few Junior Officers 70 10 or less YOS 11 to 20 YOS 60 21 or more YOS 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 Department © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 17
  • 18. Departments Live With the Legacy of Past Personnel Decisions (1) % Years of Service On average, departments appear “healthy” © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 18
  • 19. Departments Live With the Legacy of Past Personnel Decisions (2) % Years of Service …But individually, many exhibit chaotic patterns © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 19
  • 20. Healthy and Unhealthy Patterns Exist 10 or less YOS 11 to 20 YOS 80 21 or more YOS 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 Average A B C D E © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 20
  • 21. Why Do These Personnel Patterns Matter? • Cohorts progress through the organization over time • Unhealthy patterns can cause various administrative challenges that can undermine police effectiveness – Recruit and field training – Promotion assessment, frequency, and competitiveness and motivation for career progression – Budget consumption as cohort matures – Mass loss of staff and experience as cohort retires • Cohorts that differ from mean can start to oscillate – Year-to-year fluctuations can be difficult to control with new recruits and recruitment and retention tools © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 21
  • 22. Even More Reason to Consider the Existing Cohort Structure When Making Major Personnel Decisions Personnel action Junior heavy Substantially better, reduces Hiring freeze junior cohort Substantially better, reduces Academy cancellation junior cohort Not employing recruits Substantially better, reduces completing academy junior cohort Substantially better, assuming Layoff least senior targeted Substantially worse, further Mandatory retirement reduces senior cohort Substantially worse, assuming Buy-out most senior targeted Moderately worse, maintains Furlough imbalance Substantially worse, assuming Unfilled attrition greater attrition among senior cohort © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 22
  • 23. Even More Reason to Consider the Existing Cohort Structure When Making Major Personnel Decisions Personnel action Junior heavy Senior heavy Efficient Substantially better, reduces Substantially worse, Moderately worse, Hiring freeze junior cohort reduces junior cohort reduces junior cohort Substantially better, reduces Substantially worse, Moderately worse, Academy cancellation junior cohort reduces junior cohort reduces junior cohort Not employing recruits Substantially better, reduces Substantially worse, Moderately worse, completing academy junior cohort reduces junior cohort reduces junior cohort Substantially worse, Moderately worse, Substantially better, assuming Layoff assuming least senior assuming least senior least senior targeted targeted targeted Substantially worse, further Substantially better, Moderately worse, Mandatory retirement reduces senior cohort reduces senior cohort reduces senior cohort Substantially better, Moderately worse, Substantially worse, assuming Buy-out assuming most senior assuming most senior most senior targeted targeted targeted Moderately worse, maintains Moderately worse, Substantially better, Furlough imbalance maintains imbalance maintains balance Substantially worse, assuming Substantially better, Moderately worse, Unfilled attrition greater attrition among senior assuming greater attrition assuming greater attrition cohort among senior cohort among senior cohort © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 23
  • 24. Managing Police Workforces is a Delicate Process • It is important to distinguish workforce structures from staffing levels • Goals for both workforce levels and structures must be set • The factors that challenge the ability to meet workforce goals are multi-dimensional, systemic, and local • Recruitment and retention tools are used to meet and maintain these goals (not just staffing levels) • Many recruitment strategies have little measurable • This underscores the importance of maintaining proper workforce balances that do not increase the oscillation of workforce structures © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 24
  • 25. Data Capacities Must be Improved to Facilitate Personnel Planning • Significant data limitations exist • Collection • Consistency • Data shortcomings hamper the development and application of basic, evidence-based tenets of personnel management – Serious implications for hiring, training, budgeting, promotion, and maintaining workforce structures • Investment in data and analysis is required to advance a ―police planning science‖ that can improve decision- making and efficiency © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 25
  • 26. Agenda • Staffing supply and demand • Turnover and retention • Recruitment and selection • Consolidation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 26
  • 27. What is Turnover? • Turnover occurs when an employee leaves an organization • Two major types – Voluntary—employee terminates relationship • AKA: unplanned, undesired, dysfunctional, and avoidable – Involuntary—employer terminates relationship • AKA: planned, desired, functional, and unavoidable © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 27
  • 28. How Can We Measure Turnover? Type of Formula Turnover Number of separations  number of Overall employees (Number of separations – unavoidable • Traditional measurement  number of employees Avoidable separations) (Number of separations – turnover • What is the difficulty in using general voluntary rate as an Involuntary separations)  number of employees exclusive measurement of employee retention? Number of separations of employees with Recent hire <2 years of experience  number of • Should choose appropriate numeratorsexperience employees with <2 years of and denominators and otherof new hires this month  number Number contextual information (e.g., Cohort peers) of new hires still on the job in 6 months © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 28
  • 29. How Can We Measure Turnover? Type of Formula Turnover Number of separations  number of Overall employees (Number of separations – unavoidable Avoidable separations)  number of employees (Number of separations – voluntary Involuntary separations)  number of employees Number of separations of employees with Recent hire <2 years of experience  number of employees with <2 years of experience Number of new hires this month  number Cohort of new hires still on the job in 6 months © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 29
  • 30. Who Leaves? • Half the officers leaving large agencies are retirees, but only 20% leaving smaller agencies are retirees • 67% of departing officers in small agencies, and 33% of officers in large agencies, leave within 5 years or less • Nearly half of departing officers from small agencies, and about 25% from larger agencies, go on to other law enforcement work elsewhere Sources: Copeland, 2009; Lynch & Tuckey, 2004; Mitchell et al., 2001; Orrick, 2008 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 30
  • 31. Turnover is Multidimensional • Retention of employees has been described as the most pressing leadership challenge in policing (Copeland, 2009) • Does this hold true in the Great Recession? – Understanding factors that contribute to turnover – Consider the myriad costs of perpetually recruiting and retraining new employees (not just monetary) • Turnover occurs for reasons that may be singular (a specific incident) or cumulative (a culture or progression) • Communication is a crucial element in resolving problems before they occur © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 31
  • 32. Addressing Turnover • Police agencies often fail to offer the sort of (even low cost) strategies shown to combat turnover and increase employee engagement over the career course • What makes police agencies slow to address turnover? – Lack of understanding of the root causes • Has the Great Recession put police managers in denial? • What does turnover communicate about the department? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 32
  • 33. Looking at Turnover Differently • Turnover can be both a positive and negative metric • How this activity is seen depends on the context of the event itself • How does the organization view the issue of staff mobility? Is it encouraged, or dreaded? • Practical issues arise – Costs of replacement and training – Negative impressions of organization – Potential positive opportunities presented © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 33
  • 34. Potential Positive Effects of Turnover… • Some turnover may be desirable: low performers, troublemakers, those averse to change, and others • Reinvigoration of the organization’s knowledge base – New employees’ ideas stimulate older employees • Reinvigoration of the organization’s employee profile – More diversity, ―fresh faces‖, addition by subtraction • Low turnover may indicate that employees are unskilled and undesirable, and high turnover may indicate success – Consider a successful sports franchise when coaches are routinely ―poached‖ – what does that say? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 34
  • 35. …And Potential Negative Effects • Organizational stagnation due to high rates of turnover – Cohort effect is accentuated – Lack of experienced leadership • ―When good (or great) people leave‖ – what this does – Those with critical skills and knowledge – Leaders and innovators – Professional development is stunted • Turnover may stifle internal advancement opportunities, causing dissatisfaction and more turnover © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 35
  • 36. What Are the Costs of Turnover? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 36
  • 37. Cost Category Cost Example Recruitment Advertising Recruiters’ salaries Bonuses Selection Tests What Are the Review-board salaries Investigator salaries Costs of New employee Medical, psychological, and drug screening Payroll and computer personnel Turnover? Training New uniforms and equipment Orientation and field training Recruit salaries and benefits Field-trainer salaries Supervision In-service training Operating Overtime to cover vacancies Loss of productivity as employee departs Increased further turnover Peer disruption Disruption of department operations Missed deadlines Increased further turnover Intangible Loss of knowledge and experience Disruption or loss of community relationships Lower morale © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 37
  • 38. Why Do People Leave, Even Now? • Are newer generations of workers prone to frequent career changes? • What is the relationship of salary and benefits to turnover? How about employee engagement? • In an age of reduced external training opportunities and hiring, how can agencies keep career pathways robust and appealing to new officers? • Haarr (2005): Four historical theories • Lynch & Tuckey (2004): Five influences • Branham’s (2005): 7 reasons why employees leave © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 38
  • 39. Theoretical Explanations • Job dissatisfaction – Those who are dissatisfied voluntarily resign • Burnout theory – Burnout occurs gradually; stress is cumulative • Confluency theory – Specific events trigger turnover when the employee realizes the organization is unsupportive • Cognitive dissonance – Turnover begins in the early stages of an officer’s career through maladjustment and socialization © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 39
  • 40. Factors Affecting Dropout • Women and minority officers are more likely to resign from their positions due to a conflict between the ―idealized‖ impressions of police work they held prior to employment, and the ―realities‖ of their job and the socialization process • Female officers mention gender discrimination as pivotal • Small number of interviewees (n=34), but the sample follows recruits for over a year through training and probationary period; crucial findings for theoretical development and policy © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 40
  • 41. Five Influences • The pull of other opportunities elsewhere • A gap in actual or potential compensation • Personal or demographic characteristics • Negative organizational health or culture • Differential or changing employee needs • Both overall job satisfaction and agency strategy/policy are involved here: a 2-way street © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 41
  • 42. “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave” (1) • 1. The job or workplace was not what I expected – Expectations constitute a ―psychological contract‖ – Creating realistic job expectations can alleviate this • 2. Job and person are mismatched – Workers are disengaged from their duties because the work itself feels ―beneath‖ the worker’s perceived value – The worker may feel unrewarded and underappreciated • 3. Too little coaching, mentoring, & performance feedback – There is no ―big picture‖ to the employee’s role, the direction the organization is going, and how the employee is performing within a broader context © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 42
  • 43. “The 7 Hidden Reasons Employees Leave” (2) • 4. Limited opportunities for advancement – This is crucial for younger, Millennial applicants – Is it real, or perceived? Is there a difference? • 5. Feeling devalued and unrecognized – Does this always have to be related to job task? • 6. Work-life imbalance creates unwanted stress – The demands of police work become too demanding • 7. Loss of trust in leadership – Frequent turnover at the top, or constant messages that the organization is unstable or lacks integrity © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 43
  • 44. Are these “7 reasons” exclusive? • Unmotivated employees • Lack of skill-building supervision and mentoring • Culture of turnover: ―I can get my feet wet here‖ • Ambiguous organizational expectations • Restricted external training opportunities • Lack of proactive, even symbolic recognition • Erosion of overall morale due to all of the above: a ―vicious cycle‖ Source: Sprafka & Kranda, 2008; Wilson et al, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 44
  • 45. “Quitting bosses” • One of the main reasons people leave is due to ineffective leadership, or perceived incompetent leadership • This can take many forms – Feelings of being undervalued possibly tied to specific cases of mismanagement – Failure to recognize specific employee contributions and employee commitment – Breaking the psychological contract through poor employee relations • May be compounded by the perception that the situation cannot be resolved and is permanent © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 45
  • 46. Strategies that Combat Turnover (1) • Conduct ―exit‖/―stay‖ interviews to learn and be proactive • Mentoring and ―colleague counsel‖ – Balancing autonomy and mentorship – Expanded FTO programs – Mentoring throughout all levels of the agency, not just patrol, to expand preview • Educational incentives and ―career ladders‖ – Tuition assistance – Increase external training opportunities – Differential pay for advancement such as FTO – Differential pay for educational attainment – Build challenges and variety into the career path © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 46
  • 47. Strategies that Combat Turnover (2) • Perks – Housing assistance in rural and urban areas – Transportation subsidies and take-home vehicles – Days-off and other symbolic but helpful recognitions • Employee engagement strategies – Provide realistic & helpful feedback – Increased external training opportunities – Differential pay for advancement such as FTO – Differential pay for educational attainment – Give employees a legitimate voice and role in decision-making © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 47
  • 48. Strategies that Combat Turnover (3) • Employee recognition – Meetings, rituals, events, but make them meaningful – Rewards, even monetary – High-profile meetings and visits • Scheduling and job flexibility – Flexible scheduling – Job-sharing: creating hours and positions to suit these employee needs – Work-life partnerships such as child-care scheduling Sources: Fitzgerald, 2006; Konrad & Mangel, 2000; Kowal et al., 2008; Levin- Epstein, 2006; Mitchell et al., 2001; Prince, 2003; Robinson et al., 2006 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 48
  • 49. Embracing Multidirectional Career Paths • What do these solutions mean for the organization? – Rethinking police organization's role in the lives of the employees and families – Improving the way the career and expectations are communicated to employees – Necessitating transparency and equity – Eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy – Management and supervisors held accountable for implementation of solutions to overall turnover plan – A new organizational culture Source: Wilson et al., 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 49
  • 50. Agenda • Staffing supply and demand • Turnover and retention • Recruitment and selection • Consolidation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 50
  • 51. Why is Recruitment Important to You? • Meet staff demand • Improve performance • Reduce liability • Provide for future leadership • Costly • Time consuming • Meeting organizational goals © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 51
  • 52. Who Seeks Police Employment? • Those inherently interested in the position • Those who aren’t particularly interested in the position and view it as – A general employment opportunity among others – Their only employment opportunity • Those interested in using the position as a stepping stone to another career option Why is this important? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 52
  • 53. Motivations for the Profession • Job security • Opportunity to help—―make a difference‖ • Retirement plan • Health benefits • Excitement • Advancement opportunities • Fight crime • Comraderie • Variety of work © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 53
  • 54. Who Do You Seek? • Mentally and physically fit • Clean criminal and substance use record • Educated • Generate attributes • General skills • Long-term commitment What specific skills/attributes might be desired in an era of community policing, the threat of terrorism, globalization, and shrinking resources? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 54
  • 55. Selection Criteria • Standards – Qualifiers – Disqualifiers • Targets – Attributes – Skills • Selecting out vs. selecting in © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 55
  • 56. Minimum Education Requirements in Large Police Departments Education requirement (n=107) Proportion Four-year college degree 0.03 Two-year college degree 0.05 46-60 credit hours 0.11 31-45 credit hours 0.02 1-30 credit hours 0.03 High school diploma or equivalent 0.77 No formal education requirement 0.00 Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 56
  • 57. Minimum Qualifications in Large Police Departments General requirement (n=107) Proportion Psychological test 0.99 Medical test 0.99 Drivers license 0.98 US citizen 0.97 Pass vision test 0.93 Physical agility test 0.91 Any age requirement 0.79 Polygraph test 0.79 No dishonorable discharge from military 0.66 Other 0.37 Local residency 0.29 Police academy graduate 0.15 Non-smoker 0.08 Weight restrictions 0.05 Height restrictions 0.00 Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 57
  • 58. Disqualifiers in Large Police Departments Disqualification (n=107) Proportion Felony conviction 0.93 Suspended drivers license 0.93 Any serious misdemeanor conviction 0.81 Excessive points on driving record 0.79 Termination from law enforcement 0.72 Felony arrest 0.65 Substance abuse conviction 0.60 Substance abuse arrest within 2 years 0.57 Poor credit score 0.47 Substance abuse arrest 0.46 Felony arrest within 2 years 0.43 Prior drug use 0.32 Any misdemeanor conviction 0.19 Other 0.31 Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 58
  • 59. Groups Targeted by Large Police Departments Recruitment target (n=105) Proportion Racial/ethnic minorities 0.80 Women 0.74 College graduates 0.67 Military veterans 0.65 Prior police experience 0.53 Foreign language speakers 0.50 None 0.12 Physically disabled 0.02 Other 0.04 Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 59
  • 60. Methods of Recruitment in Large Police Departments—Advertising and Interaction Recruiting method (n=107) Proportion Career fairs 0.94 Internet 0.89 Newspapers 0.81 Community organizations 0.79 College outreach 0.75 Walk-in office 0.71 Posters 0.69 Military installations 0.65 Explorer/cadet program 0.63 Radio 0.61 High school outreach 0.52 College internships 0.52 Magazines 0.48 Television 0.45 Billboards 0.34 Mass mailings 0.32 Open house at police department 0.29 Other 0.28 © 2012 Michigan State University Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 Wilson- 60
  • 61. Compensation, Population, and Crime Influence the Supply of Applicants MODEL: 2007 Police Applicants (ln) Core Econometric Model Coefficient Starting salary (ln) 0.869** Population (ln) 0.786*** Average annual community wage (ln) 0.135 Unemployment rate (ln) 0.353 Vacancies (ln) 0.001 N = 70, R-Square = .54 *p ≤.05, **p ≤.10, ***p ≤.001 Property, violent, and total crime also was positively associated with applications © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 61
  • 62. …But Little Evidence That Police Strategies Mattered • Modeling illustrated that strategies are consistently unassociated with applications • Tested various samples – all, white, minority, male, and female • Tested various strategies – Number of recruiters and recruiting budget – Advertising – Incentives © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 62
  • 63. Recruit Rank-Order of Motivations for their Application Top 10 Remaining 11 Friend/family who works/ worked in same agency Military installation Friend/family who works/ worked in different agency Radio ad Internet ad Explorer and/or cadets program Friend/family not in law enforcement College outreach Experience working with the agency in another capacity College internships Newspaper ad Walk-in-office Open house at police Career fair department Billboard Community organization Television ad Magazine/journal ad Posters Mass mailing High school outreach Source: Castaneda & Ridgeway, 2010 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 63
  • 64. Methods of Recruitment in Large Police Departments—Incentives Recruitment incentive (n=106) Proportion Uniform allowance 0.95 Salary during training 0.82 Reimbursement for college courses 0.73 Pay rate by assignment 0.62 Salary increase for college degree 0.56 Paid academic expenses 0.45 Take-home car 0.41 Tuition 0.13 Health club membership 0.13 Signing bonus 0.09 Mortgage discount 0.09 Other cash 0.08 Academy graduation bonus 0.07 Relocations expenses 0.05 Schedule preference for taking courses 0.05 Housing stipend 0.00 Other 0.39 None 0.01 © 2012 Michigan State University Source: Wilson, Rostker, & Fan, 2010 Wilson- 64
  • 65. Reflecting the Community • General consensus is police should reflect community – President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice (1967) – Kerner Commission (1968) – Commission on Accreditation for Law Enforcement Agencies (1999) • Standard 31.2.1: ―The agency has ethnic and gender composition in the sworn law enforcement ranks in approximate proportion to the makeup of the available work force in the law enforcement agency’s service community, or a recruitment plan pursuant to standard 31.2.2‖ – Nationally representative survey of Americans (Weitzer & Tuch, 2004) © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 65
  • 66. Why Should the Police Reflect the Community? • There are circumstances where race/ethnicity could enhance performance (?) – NOT according to the National Research Council: ―[W]hatever influence race and gender may exert on behavior is overwhelmed by the unifying effects of occupational socialization‖ (Skogan & Frydl, 2004, p. 147) © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 66
  • 67. Why Should the Police Reflect the Community? • There are circumstances where race/ethnicity could enhance performance (?) • There should be equal opportunity for all, regardless of race and gender to become officers – ―A department can show convincingly that it does not practice racial discrimination by recruiting minority-group officers, assigning them fairly to duties…, and by pursuing promotion policies that are scrupulously fair…‖ (President’s Commission, 1967, p. 261). © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 67
  • 68. According to the 2000 Census © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 68
  • 69. How Well Do the Police Reflect the Community? • Historically, police largely comprised of white males, but has been changing over time © 2012 Michigan State University Source: LEMAS, 2007 Wilson- 69
  • 70. Race/Ethnicity Representation Varies by Community Size Asian/ American Black/African Hispanic/ Pacific Indian/Alaska Multi- Population served White American Latino Islander Native race All sizes 74.7% 11.9 10.3 2 0.7 0.3 1,000,000 or more 56 17.6 22.9 3.2 0.3 0 500,000 - 999,999 60.6 24.1 9.3 4.1 0.4 1.6 250,000 - 499,999 69.5 16.5 11.2 2 0.6 0.1 100,000 - 249,999 73.7 13.4 9.1 2.6 0.9 0.3 50,000 - 99,999 83.6 7 7.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 25,000 - 49,999 88.2 5 5.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 10,000 - 24,999 87.5 5.6 5.1 0.6 1 0.2 2,500 - 9,999 87.9 5.1 4.4 0.6 1.8 0.1 Under 2,500 88.3 5.8 3 0.1 2.3 0.5 Source: LEMAS, 2007 © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 70
  • 71. Gender Representation Varies by Community Size Male (%) Female (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: LEMAS, 2007 What does all of this variation mean for recruitment? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 71
  • 72. Recruitment “Messaging” • Motivations for the profession – Service, variety, excitement, benefits, etc. • Incentives – Signing bonus, tuition reimbursement, etc. • Image of the department and profession – Brand and story—what makes it unique © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 72
  • 73. Compare Recruiting Strategies Online • LAPD, LVMPD, Tacoma, Orlando, NJSP & your own • What is your first reaction? • How easy are they to navigate? • How comprehensive is the information? • What images are evoked? • What do you think it would be like to work there? • Which one sparks your interest most and why? • What might explain the differences? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 73
  • 74. Agenda • Staffing supply and demand • Turnover and retention • Recruitment and selection • Consolidation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 74
  • 75. Public Safety Consolidation: Ready or Not, Here it Comes… © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 75
  • 76. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • Keys to success • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 76
  • 77. Our Decentralized Law Enforcement System • About 18,000 state and local law enforcement agencies in the US – Much different from other countries: Canada 80, England 40, Japan 50 • Approximately 765,000 sworn personnel • About 49% of agencies employ less than 10 full- time officers • Two out of three officers work for agencies with 100 or more sworn officers © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 77
  • 78. Fragmentation is Good… • Local control • Community reflection • Career choices • Bigger is not necessarily better © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 78
  • 79. … and Bad • Offenders do not recognize jurisdictional boundaries • Crime control strategy should be more regional • Peer emulation • Duplication of administration, facilities, communications, equipment, etc. • Requires more resources/police officers © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 79
  • 80. Why is the Provision of Public Safety So Challenging? • Generally the largest portion of a community’s budget • Costs have risen substantially over time • Personnel costs typically represent eighty to ninety percent of a police or fire budget • Collective bargaining agreements often reduce management flexibility (e.g., minimum staffing) • Public safety employees have garnered public support for maintaining the status quo © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 80
  • 81. The Profound Effect of the Economy • For many, standard responses—that is, cuts at the margin—have not been enough • Traditional reluctance to cut public safety has given way to dramatic and unprecedented decisions—all options are on the table – Hiring freezes, lay-offs, furloughs, ―org death,‖… • Considerable experimentation in the substantive delivery of public safety services © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 81
  • 82. “Experimentation” has Taken Many Forms • Functional Consolidation: Two or more agencies combine functional units like communications, crime lab, or SWAT team • Regionalization: A number of agencies combine to police a geographic area • Metropolitan: Two or more agencies serving overlapping jurisdictions join together • City-County Consolidation: A city and county consolidate their entire governments • Contracting: Small and medium-sized communities contract with a larger agency for police services • Local Merger: Two separate agencies form a single, new entity © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 82
  • 83. Functional Consolidation • Combined Dispatch • Regional Drug and Vehicle Theft Groups • Major Crime Task Forces – Will County, IL: 37 agencies • Major Crash Assistance Team (MCAT) • Regional SWAT Team © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 83
  • 84. Regional Policing • Northern York County Regional Police Department – Formed in 1972 – 2 Boroughs, 6 Townships – 50 sworn officers – Each municipality selects a commissioner • About 30 regional agencies in PA © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 84
  • 85. Metropolitan Police • Nashville • Las Vegas • Louisville • Indianapolis © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 85
  • 86. City County Consolidated • UNI-Gov in Indianapolis • Jacksonville - Duval County Florida • City and County of Broomfield Colorado – City of Broomfield and portions of four counties © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 86
  • 87. Contracting • Generally offered by sheriff • King County Washington – Emphasis on local control • Los Angeles County – 40 cities, 2M residents • RCMP © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 87
  • 88. Pros and Cons of Contracting Pro Con Lower cost Loss of local control Specific services can be obtained Quality of service may be diminished May provide higher quality service May have to compete for resources May be better trained and equipped Costs will increase County absorbs risk Difficult to reestablish department What happens to employees? © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 88
  • 89. Local Merger • Winter Park/Fraser Police Colorado 2005 – Winter Park serves as the managing partner – Winter Park is responsible for paying all bills – Winter Park is responsible for managing all employment matters, insurance, and other related matters – All personnel are employees of Winter Park – The Police Chief reports directly to the Fraser Town Manager and Winter Park Town Manager – All police officers are sworn to serve and protect both municipalities © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 89
  • 90. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 90
  • 91. There is Considerable Variation in Public Safety Consolidation • Full integration of police and fire services • Cross-trained public safety officers Full • Consolidated management and command • Partial integration of police and fire services • Cross-trained public safety officers exist alongside separate functional personnel Partial • Consolidation occurs within administrative ranks • Police and fire services are not integrated • Consolidation generally limited to the chief executive Nominal © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 91
  • 92. Highland Park, Texas Est. 1977 (with roots to 1913), Pop. 9,000 Director of Public Safety Office of the Operations Support Services Director Bureau Bureau Community Criminal Communications Administrative Relations A Shift Investigations Training Division Division Services Division Division Division Accreditation/ Administration EMS Education B Shift Investigators Dispatch Crime Analyst Secretary Contractor Support Services C Shift Property Room Alarm Services Officer School Crossing Court Bailiff Records Clerk Guards • 222 Index crimes in 2010 (2,373 per 100,000 residents) • 38 of 54 PSO’s cross-trained police, fire, and paramedic • PSO’s work 24-hour shifts—rotating functions © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 92
  • 93. Sunnyvale, California Est. 1950, Pop. 140,000 (230,000 daytime) Chief Mgmt Analyst Internal Budget Deputy Chief Deputy Chief Affairs Deputy Chief Police Fire Special Operations Personnel Services Captain Police Captain Police Captain Fire Team A Team B Team A Captain Captain Special Operations Strategic Services Police Admin Captain Fire Traffic Safety Lieutenant Team B Vehicle Abatement Communications Office of Captain Fire Emergency Recruitment Team C Services Fire Env. Neighborhood Training Services Preservation Police/Fire/EMS Investigations Grants Licenses & • 2,396 Index crimes in 2010 (1,787 per 100,000 Permits residents) Crime Prevention Records/Property/ Evidence • All 195 PSO’s cross-trained police, fire, and EMT Animal Control • Police personnel work 11-hour shifts, fire personnel work 24-hour shifts—assigned functions © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 93
  • 94. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 94
  • 95. Consolidation Exists Throughout the US, and Appears to be on the Rise • Currently, we’ve identified 132 agencies that have consolidated public safety at least nominally – Spread across the US • Michigan leads with 56, next most is South Carolina with 9 – Small and medium-sized agencies – Rural and urban communities – Form of implementation varies This is a living list that frequently changes © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 95
  • 96. Many have Abandoned Consolidation…Yet Many Others are Actively Considering It • We’ve identified several agencies that have abandoned consolidation—there are likely more – Various reasons cited • Expanded responsibilities resulted in perceived need for greater specialization • Perceived need to increase communication and stature of each function within city government • We’ve identified several communities throughout the US considering the model—there are likely more – Consolidations are regularly occurring It’s critical to understand the contexts of both successes and failures © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 96
  • 97. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 97
  • 98. Consolidation May Increase Efficiency • Responding officer can comprehensively assess and direct response to situations • Reduced total need for line staff • More staff continuously available to respond to calls • Fire industry is changing from fire suppression to EMS – From 1983-2010, fires fell by 43% while fire fighters increased 48% (and fire departments increased 7%) – From 1980-2010, medical aid increased 260% • Reduced duplication of administrative, communications, and physical infrastructure Example Traverse City employs 56 fire and police personnel, 43% more than the average public safety department in Michigan communities of a similar size © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 98
  • 99. Consolidation May Promote Community Policing and Service Quality • Fully, comprehensively trained professional on scene of every incident • Increased access to staff and flexibility in its deployment • Freed up time for officers to work in the community • Expanded role of police officers to include activities generally favored by the public – Satisfaction of fire services often greater than police services, and fire profession is often the most respected • Expanded role attracts officers with a broader skill set • Through improved efficiency, consolidation may keep community policing activities from being reduced and eliminated © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 99
  • 100. Consolidation May Enhance Comprehensive Community Safety and Homeland Security Preparedness • Enhanced communication • Unity of command structure • All-inclusive emergency response and planning • Comprehensive training © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 100
  • 101. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • Keys to success • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 101
  • 102. Perceived Costs to Consolidation • Up-front costs can be prohibitive – Increased training and backfilling staff during training – Branding, uniforms, equipment and vehicles – Immediate cost savings often not realized • In-service training requirements to maintain certifications • Contracts – Labor and facilities • Reorganization pain – Planning for structure, positions, and people • Perceived or actual decline in service quality • Exacerbation of existing management problems © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 102
  • 103. Opposition to Consolidation • Organized labor – In select areas, organized labor has succeeded in blocking consolidation efforts by changing local and state statutes, charters and pension regulations • Citizens – Some locales have exhibited fears of a deterioration in either police or fire services, or both • Administrators – Cultural and organizational changes needed may run up against opposition – Confusion and ambiguity about administrative roles © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 103
  • 104. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • Keys to success • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 104
  • 105. Why Do Consolidations Fail? (1) • Citizens value local control • Most public safety executives and staff are content with their organizations and see no particular benefit to change—personal stake • Organizations, even small ones, tend to place great emphasis on their unique identity—culture matters • Strong opposition from employee groups • Expected cost savings are often not realized, particularly in the short-run © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 105
  • 106. Why Do Consolidations Fail? (2) • Public perception soured over time/decline in service quality • Perception of need for greater specialization due to changing workload • Perception of need to elevate public safety services within city government © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 106
  • 107. Keys to Success • Focus on quality • Political support • Inclusive planning • Time for implementation © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 107
  • 108. Agenda • Context and overview • Public safety models • Prevalence • Perceived benefits • Perceived costs • Keys to success • From anecdote to evidence © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 108
  • 109. Existing Information is Problematic Despite the tremendous need, practitioners and decision-makers have few systematic, data- driven lessons • What we know is largely anecdotal • Current knowledge is based upon scattered and dated case studies • Many questions remain about the options for and feasibility of public safety consolidation, and the factors associated with success and failure © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 109
  • 110. Introducing the New Research Institute on Police Consolidation and Shared Services (RIPCaSS) • Administered by the MSU School of Criminal Justice • Staffed with seasoned, well-respected scholars © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 110
  • 111. The Goals of RIPCaSS Are Lofty But Critical • Develop concrete, research-based lessons about the nature, structure, function and implementation of all forms of consolidation and shared services within local context for understanding their short and long-term costs and benefits – When do they work and when don’t they? • Promote fact-based awareness and decision- making • Serve as a resource © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 111
  • 112. Many Field-Driven, Multi-dimensional Activities Are Already Underway (1) • Creating an online portal for existing resources, information and networking • Case studies of consolidated and deconsolidated public safety agencies • Developing a national public safety agency census • Residential opinion survey of public safety satisfaction • Media content analysis of public safety consolidation communication strategies © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 112
  • 113. Many Field-Driven, Multi-dimensional Activities Are Already Underway (2) • Focus group summit and case studies on merging policies in consolidations • Review of facilitating labor-management consolidation discussions • Analysis of utilizing non-sworn staff • Trainings, technical assistance and outreach © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 113
  • 114. We’ll Leverage and Develop Numerous Resources for Law Enforcement Stakeholders • BOLOs • Executive primers • Practitioner guides • Training webinars • Professional and journal articles • Various other publication and training resources © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 114
  • 115. Our Experience Thus Far… • Consolidation is a divisive issue and stakeholders fall along a continuum – Adamant opposition • Assumptions and misunderstandings are common • Positions frequently based on qualitative judgment/emotion as opposed to facts/evidence – Unaware—blissfully or frantically – Very supportive within context of practical realities • Many examples of it working • Skeptics and champions have made themselves known • A tremendous need exists for resources to inform discourse and decision-making – regular calls for help © 2012 Michigan State University Wilson- 115
  • 116. Thank you! For more information, contact Jeremy M. Wilson School of Criminal Justice jwilson@msu.edu (517)353-9474 Wilson- 116 © 2012 Michigan State University
  • 117. Thank you! For more information, contact Jeremy M. Wilson School of Criminal Justice jwilson@msu.edu (517)353-9474 Wilson- 117 © 2012 Michigan State University

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