Bullwhip Effect

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Download Link > https://ertekprojects.com/gurdal-ertek-publications/blog/the-bullwhip-effect-in-supply-chain-reflections-after-a-decade/ A decade has passed since the publication of the two seminal papers by Lee, Padmanabhan and Whang (1997) that describes the “bullwhip effect” in supply chains and characterizes its underlying causes. The bullwhip phenomenon is observed in supply chains where the decisions at the subsequent stages of the supply chain are made greedily based on local information, rather than through coordination based on global information on the state of the whole chain. The first consequence of this information distortion is higher variance in purchasing quantities compared to sales quantities at a particular supply chain stage. The second consequence is increasingly higher variance in order quantities and inventory levels in the upstream stages compared to their downstream stages (buyers). In this paper, we survey a decade of literature on the bullwhip effect and present the key insights reported by researchers and practitioners. We also present our reflections and share our vision of possible future.

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This Research deals with the supply chain management (SCM) provide us a high practical rapidity flow of high quality, significant information that will assist suppliers to provide a constant and specifically timed flow of resources to customers. However, unplanned demand oscillations, including those caused by stock outs, in the supply chain performance development produce distortions. There are numerous causes, often in combination that will cause these supply chain distortions to start what has become known as the “Bullwhip Effect”. While the devil is generally hidden in the details, as is the case here, the most common drivers of these demand distortions are: Customers, Promotions, Sales, Manufacturing Policies, Processes, Systems and Suppliers. The “Bullwhip Effect” has in the past been recognized as normal, and in fact, thought to be a predictable part of the order-to-delivery cycle. In this paper we propose a novel effective approach to find the MSE (Mean square error) with the help of MAMDANI Fuzzy logic.

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