1. Climate Forecasting Unit
AUTUMN
Seasonal Forecasts for
Global Solar PV Energy
Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert

2. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S1.3.1: Autumn solar GHI availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)
m/s
Stage A: Solar GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) Resource Assessment
Solar PV energy potential: Where is it the sunniest?
Dark red regions of this map shows where global solar GHI is highest in autumn, and lighter yellow regions
where it is lowest.
N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.
* Reanalysis information comes from a objective combination of observations and a numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, to
generate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

3. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S1.3.2: Autumn solar GHI inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)
m/s
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Solar PV energy volatility: Where does solar radiation vary the greatest?
The darker red regions of this map shows where global solar GHI varies the most from one year to the next in
autumn, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.
N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

4. Climate Forecasting Unit
Europe
Autumn solar GHI availability Autumn solar GHI inter-annual variability
m/s
Areas of
interest: Whole
Continent
S.African
Continent
S.E.Mainland
Asia/
Philippines/
Indonesia
E.Australia/
Papua New
Guinea
S.America Africa Asia Australia
N.Mexico/
S.E. USA
N.America
Spain/
Portugal/
Mediterranean
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Where is solar PV energy resource potential and variability highest?
By comparing both the autumn global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen that
there are several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable.
These regions are most vulnerable to solar GHI variability over climate timescales, and are therefore of
greatest interest for seasonal forecasting in autumn.
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

5. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.3.1: Autumn solar GHI ensemble mean correlation
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
time
SolarGHI
forecast
+ 1.0
obs. forecast
- 1.0
forecast
example 1
forecast
- 1.0
example 2
example 3
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
Can the forecast mean predict the
variability of the solar GHI observations?
The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in autumn 1 month ahead, is
partially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a autumn solar GHI forecast, made
every year since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variability
over time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

6. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.3.1: Autumn solar GHI ensemble mean correlation
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
Can the forecast mean predict the
variability of the solar GHI observations?
Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumn
seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no
available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random
prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

7. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.3.2: Autumn solar GHI CR probability skill score
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
Can the forecast distribution predict the
magnitude and the variability of the
solar GHI observations?
time
SolarGHI
forecast
+ 1.0
obs. forecast
- 1.0
forecast
example 1
forecast
- 1.0
example 2
example 3
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in autumn 1 month ahead, is fully
shown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in the
previous map) of an autumn solar GHI forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over the
same period. If they follow the same variability and magnitude over time, the skill is positive (example 2).
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

8. Climate Forecasting Unit
Fig. S2.3.2: Autumn solar GHI CR probability skill score
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)
Can the forecast distribution predict the
magnitude and the variability of the
solar GHI observations?
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
1St
validation of the climate forecast system:
Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumn
seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no
available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random
prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.
Perfect
Forecast
Same as
Climatology
Worse
than
Clima-
tology
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

9. Climate Forecasting Unit
Europe
Areas of
interest:
N.Patagonia/
N.E.Coast
(variability skill only)
Indonesia/
Malaysia/S
ingapore
N.E.
Australia
S.America Africa Asia Australia
N.USA/
Caribbean
N.America
UK/Spain
Portugal/
Sardinia/Corsica
Autumn solar GHI magnitude and variability
forecast skill
Autumn solar GHI variability forecast skill
Solar GHI variability
forecast skill only
Both solar GHI variability and magnitude forecast skill
Tanzania/
Kenya
Coast
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?
By comparing both the autumn global solar GHI forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there are
several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI forecasts are skilful in both its variability and magnitude.
These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational autumn wind forecasts, and are therefore
of greatest interest to seasonal solar GHI forecasting in autumn.
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)

10. Climate Forecasting Unit
Mexico/
S.Canada
Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment
Magnitude + variability forecast skillVariability forecast skill
m/sm/sm/s
SPRING Wind Forecasts
These four maps compare the seasonal autumn solar GHI global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside the
autumn global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability map (top). It can be seen that there are several
key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in both its variability and magnitude, and the
solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonal solar GHI
forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.
EuropeAreas of
Interest:
(Forecast skill)
Indonesia/
Malaysia/
Singapore
W.
S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.America
XX
COAST
N.Patagonia/
N.E.Coast
N.E.Australia
Europe S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.America
Whole
Continent
S.Africa
Continent
S.E.Mainland Asia
Philippines/
Indonesia
W.Australia/
Tazmania
N.Mexico/
S.E. USA
Spain/
Portugal/
Mediterranean
Areas of
Interest:
(Resources)
E.Australia
Solar GHI inter-annual variabilitySolar GHI availability
Stage A: Solar GHI Resource Assessment
Variability forecast skill
Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?
Where is solar resource potential + volatility highest
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)
IndonesiaN.USA/
Caribbean
Indonesia
UK/Spain
Portugal/
Sardinia/Corsica
Tanzania/
Kenya
Coast

11. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Europe
Spain/
Portugal/
Sicily
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
W.
Australia
E.Australia
Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
This operational solar forecast shows the probability of global solar GHI to be higher (red), lower (blue) or
normal (white) over the forthcoming autumn season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years. As
the forecast season is autumn 2011, this is an example of solar GHI forecast information that could have been
available for use within a decision making process in August 2011.
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)
Asia
Indonesia
Africa
Tanzania/
Kenya
Coast
S.America
N.Patagonia
N.E.Coast
S.America

12. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
The key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology.
These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential
for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in autumn (Stage B) and/or
lower solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).
Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)
Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
Europe
Spain/
Portugal/
Sicily
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
W.
Australia
E.Australia
Asia
Indonesia
Africa
Tanzania/
Kenya
Coast
S.America
N.Patagonia
N.E.Coast
S.America

13. Climate Forecasting Unit
%
Stage C: Operational Solar GHI Forecast
This does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational solar GHI forecast
information for these regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to their
corresponding limitations. The primary limitations to a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or the
low risk of variability in solar GHI for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.
Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts
(September + October + November)
Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile
(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)
Europe
Spain/
Portugal/
Sicily
Areas of Interest Identified:
(Resources and Forecast Skill)
S.America
N.Patagonia
N.E.Coast
W.
Australia
E.Australia
S.America
Asia
Indonesia
Africa
Tanzania/
Kenya
Coast

14. Climate Forecasting Unit
The research leading to these results has received funding
from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme
(FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:
CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)
EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)
SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)