Anticipatory Failure Determination <afd> is a method similar to FMEA in design, to extract and discover failures in design ad how to cope and manage these risks.

1. Anticipatory failure determination

2. Alternatives
• Failure Modes & Effects Analysis [FMEA]
• Potential Problem Analysis [PPA]
• Hazards Operability Analysis [HAZOP]

3. What is AFD?
• Failure Analysis
– Thoroughly analyze given failure mechanisms
• Failure Prediction
– Obtain an exhaustive set of potential failure "scenarios"
• Failure Precaution
– Develop "inventive" solutions to prevent, counteract, or minimize the
impact of the failure scenarios

4. What are the drawbacks in traditional
approaches
• Linear along design
– Psychological Inertia
– Looking from the design & designer POV
• Little beyond the design, does not study
– Excess and limited use scenarios
– Prohibitive usage scenarios
• Solution is a problem resolution stop gap
– Not a design innovation

5. So how does AFD go about?
1. Invert the problem inventive process
– From "Why did the failure happen?" to "How can I make it happen?“
– Ethical hacking the design
– Challenge to subvert the system design
2. Identify failure hypothesis
– Simulate and create previous failures
3. Utilize Resources to resolve
– Once failures are exposed and transparent
– Design team gets into control measures
– 7 categories
• substances, field effects, space available, time, object structure, system
functions, and other data on the system

6. A View to FMEA

7. Comparison of AFD with FMEA
Criteria FMEA AFD
Purpose Identify potential failure, study effects, Invert the design, study past, identify failure
prioritize and manage impact through scenarios, take innovative actions on harmful
mitigation outcomes using TRIZ methods
Scope System design, product design, process System design, product design, process design
design
Tools Previous FMEAs, SMEs, internal engg & FMEA + problem formulation; inventive analogs
warranty data, FMEA logic using : Inventive Principles, Standard Solutions,
incorporation of System and Environmental
Resources
Process Linear following design intent I terative and "inverted" or subversive by probing
how failures can be deliberately created.

8. Comparison of AFD with FMEA

9. AFD is complementary to FMEA
FMEA Step AFD Integration
Potential Failure Failure Prediction | Cause – effect diagrams for the system (sub-system, component)
| Inverted Problem formulation | AFD knowledge base (Checklists and Operators)
Modes
Potential Effects of Destroying the system's resistance to a specific effect | Making the system vulnerable
| Intensifying the failure | Masking the failure
Failure
Potential Cause – effect diagrams | Localizing the failure | Inverted Problem formulation |
failure generation methods | Failure providing components | Revealing failure
Causes/Mechanisms components | Typical sources of high danger | Transforming harmless object into
of Failure danger | Intensifying an available harmful effect | Destroying the system's resistance
to a specific effect
Recommended Mitigating harmful effect through >> Eliminating the causes | Removing the source or
properties | Modifying | Counteracting |Isolating | Increasing resistance | Modifying or
Actions substituting the effected object | Localizing | Reducing | 'Blending in' defects |
Transience | Facilitating detection

10. References
• Genrich Altshuller, Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman, Vitalii Filatov.
“Searching for New Ideas.” Kishniev: Kartya
Moldovenyaska Publishing House, 1989.
• Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman, “Solving All Scientific
Problems” Kishniev: Kartya Moldovenyaska Publishing House,
1989.
• Stan Kaplan, “Finding Failures before They Find Us: An
Introduction to The Theory of Scenario Structuring and the Method
of Anticipatory Failure Determination.” Proceedings of the 9th
Symposium on Quality Function Deployment, June, l997.
http://www.qfdi.org
• Ideation International AFD™ Software, 1999. www.ideationtriz.com