1. Predictive Policing: The Future of Law Enforcement?
by Beth Pearsall
Law enforcement explores ways to anticipate and prevent crime.
F
or years, businesses have In November 2009, the National
used data analysis to anticipate Institute of Justice, in partner-
market conditions or industry ship with the Bureau of Justice
trends and drive sales strategies. Assistance and the Los Angeles
Police Department, held a Predictive
Walmart, for example, learned Policing Symposium to discuss this
through analysis that when a major emerging idea and its impact on the
weather event is in the forecast, future of policing. Researchers, law
demand for three items rises: duct enforcement officers, crime ana-
tape, bottled water and strawberry lysts and scientists gathered in Los
Pop-Tarts. Armed with this informa- Angeles for three days to explore the
tion, stores in the affected areas policy implications, privacy issues
can ensure their shelves are fully and technology of predictive policing.
stocked to meet customer needs.
What is Predictive Policing?
Police can use a similar data analy-
sis to help make their work more Predictive policing, in essence, is
efficient. The idea is being called taking data from disparate sources,
“predictive policing,” and some in analyzing them and then using
the field believe it has the poten- results to anticipate, prevent
tial to transform law enforcement and respond more effectively
by enabling police to anticipate and to future crime.
prevent crime instead of simply
responding to it.
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2. NIJ Jour Nal / Issue No. 266
Predictive policing entails becoming Moreover, doing them better remains Here are two examples of predictive
less reactive. “The predictive vision critical given the current economic policing at work:
moves law enforcement from focus- climate.
ing on what happened to focusing on Reducing Random Gunfire in
what will happen and how to effec- George Gascón, chief of police Richmond. Every New Year’s
tively deploy resources in front of for the San Francisco Police Eve, Richmond, Va., would experi-
crime, thereby changing outcomes,” Department, noted that predictive ence an increase in random gunfire.
writes Charlie Beck, chief of the policing is the perfect tool to help Police began looking at data gathered
Los Angeles Police Department.1 departments become more efficient over the years, and based on that
as budgets continue to be reduced. information, they were able to antici-
Beck told participants that perhaps “With predictive policing, we have pate the time, location and nature
the greatest benefit to predictive the tools to put cops at the right of future incidents. On New Year’s
policing is the discovery of new place at the right time or bring other Eve 2003, Richmond police placed
or previously unknown patterns services to impact crime, and we officers at those locations to prevent
and trends. Just as Walmart found can do so with less,” he said. crime and respond more rapidly.
increased demand for strawberry The result was a 47 percent decrease
Pop-Tarts preceding major weather in random gunfire and a 246 per-
events, LAPD has found its own
subtle patterns when examining Predictive policing cent increase in weapons seized.
The department saved $15,000 in
data that have helped the depart-
ment accurately anticipate and
is not meant to replace personnel costs.
prevent crime.
tried-and-true police Connecting Burglaries and
Code Violations in Arlington,
Predictive policing is not meant
to replace tried-and-true police
techniques. It builds on Texas. The Arlington, Texas, Police
Department used data on residential
techniques, symposium speakers
explained. Instead, it borrows
the essential elements burglaries to identify hot spots and
then compared these locations to
from the principles of problem- of all policing strategies areas with code violations. According
oriented policing, community to Chief Theron Bowman, officers
policing, evidence-based policing, for the greater good. found that every unit increase of
intelligence-led policing and other physical decay resulted in almost
proven policing models. six more residential burglaries in
the city. Thus, neighborhoods with
“This is a very important next step So What Does it Look Like greater physical decay could expect
to move forward in the evolution- in the field? greater increases in residential
ary process of our profession,” burglaries. Arlington subsequently
said Bill Bratton, former LAPD “There is no predictive policing in developed a formula to help iden-
chief and chairman of Altegrity Risk a box,” explained Colleen McCue, tify characteristics of these “fragile
International. “We are building on president and CEO of MC2 Solutions, neighborhoods.” The police depart-
the essential elements of all policing which provides professional services ment and other city agencies now
strategies for the greater good.” in predictive analytics. “Let the prob- work more efficiently in the neigh-
lem guide the solution,” she advised. borhoods to help prevent crime.
John Morgan, director of NIJ’s
Office of Science and Technology, Current analytic tools and tech-
niques like hot spots, data mining, But is This new?
added, “This is a framework to
help us organize policing as an crime mapping, geospatial prediction Some participants questioned
information-intensive business and social network analysis can be whether predictive policing was,
in an information age. Predictive applied to a broad range of criminal in fact, a new model. They argued
policing is not meant to replace any justice problems. For instance, they that good crime analysts have been
other model of policing,” he said. can be used to anticipate localized practicing predictive policing for
“Instead, it enables us to do these crime spikes, inform city and neigh- more than 40 years.
things better.” borhood planning, and aid in police
management decisions.
Predictive Policing: The Future of Law Enforcement? | 17

3. N I J J o u rN a l / I s s u e N o . 2 6 6
“Are we doing anything new or inno-
vative with this data or are we just niJ funds Predictive Policing Demonstration initiative
doing it better and quicker?” asked
Chief Tom Casady of the Lincoln,
Neb., Police Department.
Casady argued that the idea is not
N IJ has launched a demonstration initiative to develop, test and
evaluate predictive policing in a real-world, real-time context. The
Institute awarded planning grants to seven law enforcement agencies.
new. “It is a coalescing of interre-
lated police strategies and tactics NIJ has also funded a team from the RAND Corp. to evaluate the
that were already around, like projects. The evaluation is designed to address questions such as
intelligence-led policing and prob- what works, what does not and what is promising in predictive policing.
lem solving. This just brings them
all under the umbrella of predictive For more information on the initiative, see http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/
policing,” he said. “What is new is nij/topics/law-enforcement/predictive-policing/symposium/discussion-
the tremendous infusion of data,” demonstrations.htm.
Casady added.
Referencing the Richmond example,
he explained, “We knew there were
shootings on New Year’s Eve, and handle information the right way,” policing to put privacy, civil rights and
we knew where they were happen- said Thomas O’Reilly, senior policy civil liberties in the forefront from the
ing. So if we could pinpoint the time, advisor at the justice department’s outset,” said Russell Porter, direc-
we could put more police in those Bureau of Justice Assistance. “As tor of the State of Iowa Intelligence
areas. This is pretty basic stuff,” he we move into predictive policing, Fusion Center.
said, “and we have been doing this nothing should be secret. We should
for years.” Casady said the real ques- engage privacy advocates and com- Participants stressed the importance
tion the field should be asking is how munity leaders from the outset to of setting up a thorough privacy
to take this to a new level: How do explain the program and get their policy, training personnel to use it
we use information to stimulate ideas and input to alleviate their properly, enforcing accountability
different interventions? concerns.” and continually refining the policy.
Policies should also include what
Community involvement Sean Malinowski, a lieutenant with information can be shared with
the LAPD, assured participants that other agencies.
is Critical predictive policing does not deny
Participants agreed that transpar- civil rights. “Police are not arresting “Transparency, auditing and due
ency and community involvement people on the probability that they diligence are critical to developing
are important. will commit a crime,” he said. “Police a process that is trustworthy, pro-
still must have probable cause.” In tects privacy and produces good
“Community trust is huge as addition, predictive policing methods outcomes,” said Joan McNamara,
we move down this path,” Beck do not identify specific individuals; a commander in the Los Angeles
explained. “We need to be extremely instead, they anticipate particular Police Department.
transparent. As we advance this times and locations where crime
discussion of how law enforcement is likely to occur.2 Bratton added, “If we do this right,
will use information and how we tie if we do it constitutionally, collec-
that information to officer deploy- Yet privacy and civil liberty issues tively and transparently, we can
ment, all of these discussions must are critically interrelated with lessen the concern. We can hear
be open.” predictive policing and must be the concerns and move forward, all
addressed. “We have a solemn the while expanding and modifying
“The community must have con- obligation and a strategic imperative and improving and continuing that
fidence that law enforcement will for the success of predictive path of discussion.”
18 | Predictive Policing: The Future of Law Enforcement?

4. NIJ Jour Nal / Issue No. 266
it is All About the Data data together, and approach it from
a holistic perspective,” Bowman
In the end, the success of predictive said. “It is just as important to under-
policing will all come down to how stand what we don’t know at the
reliable it is, how different informa- local level.”
tion sources are integrated and how
all the data are analyzed.
“We have the ability
John Miller of the Office of the
“Police departments collect great
Director of National Intelligence to use information to
suggested that the field also looks
data all the time,” said Craig Uchida, at “predictive perpetrating.” “We save lives, and
president of Justice & Security must ask ourselves: What data
Strategies Inc, a company that helps sources have the bad guys pulled we need to use it
law enforcement agencies in evalu-
ating and addressing program needs.
up? We are not the only ones looking
at data,” he warned. constitutionally and
“We just don’t know how reliable,
valid and clean it is. We need to “It is so important to bring these data
consistently,” Bratton
oversee data collection to ensure
the data are clean.”
warehouses and analytics together
and to search and make them avail-
said. “We are in a
Along with watching quality, police
able so we can do our job,” Beck
said. Malinowski added, “Analyzing
position to save lives,
departments also need to tap into
the wealth of nontraditional data
all of this data will give decision-
makers better information to make
reduce injuries, improve
available locally, such as medical
and code-compliance data.
better decisions.” safety ... It doesn’t get
“Predictive policing has another
“We have the ability to use infor- any better than that.”
mation to save lives, and we need
level outside the walls of the police to use it constitutionally and consis-
department,” Jim Bueermann, chief tently,” Bratton said. “We are in a
of police in the Redlands, Calif., position to save lives, reduce injuries,
Police Department, said. “It takes improve safety … It doesn’t get any
a holistic approach — how do we better than that.”
integrate health and school and
land-use data?”
Beth Pearsall is a freelance writer and
“Part of the challenge is understand- frequent contributor to the NIJ Journal.
ing what all the available data are
and then finding a way to fuse that
data, bring the people who use that NCJ 230414
notes
Check out the recap of the Predictive Policing Symposium
1. Beck, C., and C. McCue, “Predictive on the NIJ Web site: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/topics/
Policing: What Can We Learn From
Wal-Mart and Amazon About Fighting law-enforcement/predictive-policing/symposium/welcome.htm.
Crime in a Recession?” The Police
Chief 76 (11) (November 2009), http://
policechiefmagazine.org/magazine/index.
cfm?fuseaction=display_arch&article_
id=1942&issue_id=112009.
2. Ibid.
Predictive Policing: The Future of Law Enforcement? | 19