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TRANSITIONING TO THE NEW
RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD
      AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009


                 Kevin W Knight AM
               CPRM; Hon FRMIA; FIRM (UK); LMRMIA.

                     CHAIRMAN
   ISO WORKING GROUP - RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD

                       MEMBER
    STANDARDS AUSTRALIA / STANDARDS NEW ZEALAND
   JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE OB/7 - RISK MANAGEMENT



                                                      08/2009
Why a new standard?
AS/NZS 4360:2004

•   Was due for update in 2009
•   The most widely used global RM Standard

ISO 31000 is a paramount standard

•   Like 9000 and 14000
•   Will guide all other ISO/IEC standards with
    respect to RM process
•   Will replace national RM standards

ISO Guide 73

•   Global vocabulary of risk management terms
•   Being re-written by same WG, in parallel with ISO 31000

IEC 31010 Risk Management - Risk Assessment Techniques

•   Reflects current good practices in selection and utilisation of RM techniques
•   Being written in with the involvement of the same WG, in parallel with ISO 31000 and
    ISO Guide 73
Terms of Reference
                           (as approved by ISO TMB)



•   The Working Group develop a document which provides
    principles and practical guidance to the risk management
    process.

•   The document is applicable to all organisations, regardless of
    type, size, activities and location and should apply to all type of
    risk.

•   The document should establish a common concept of risk
    management process and common related concepts.
Terms of Reference, as approved by ISO TMB (Continued)…


•       The document should provide practical guidelines to:
    –      Understand how to implement risk management
    –      Identify and treat all types of risk
    –      treat and manage the identified risks,
    –      improve an organisation's performance through the management of risk,
    –      maximize opportunities and minimize losses in the organisation;
    –      raise awareness of the need to treat and manage risk in organisations.


•       Type of deliverable
        The standard to be developed is a Guideline document, and is NOT to be used
        for the purpose of certification.
ISO Guide 73 - Scope

•   Provides a basic vocabulary of the definitions of generic terms
    related to risk management

•   Aims to encourage a mutual and consistent understanding, a
    coherent approach to the description of activities relating to the
    management of risk, and use of risk management terminology in
    processes and frameworks dealing with the management of risk.
Terms included in ISO Guide 73
•   COMMUNICATION & CONSULTATION   •   RISK AVOIDANCE
•   CONSEQUENCE                    •   RISK CRITERIA
•   CONTROL                        •   RISK EVALUATION
•   ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT       •   RISK FINANCING
•   EVENT                          •   RISK IDENTIFICATION
•   EXPOSURE                       •   RISK MANAGEMENT
•   EXTERNAL CONTEXT               •   RISK MANAGEMENT AUDIT
•   FREQUENCY                      •   RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
•   HAZARD                         •   RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN
•   INTERNAL CONTEXT               •   RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY
•   LEVEL OF RISK                  •   RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
•   LIKELIHOOD                     •   RISK MATRIX
•   MONITORING                     •   RISK OWNER
•   PROBABILITY                    •   RISK PERCEPTION
•   RESIDUAL RISK                  •   RISK PROFILE
•   RESILIENCE                     •   RISK REGISTER
•   REVIEW                         •   RISK REPORTING
•   RISK                           •   RISK RETENTION
•   RISK ACCEPTANCE                •   RISK SHARING
•   RISK AGGREGATION               •   RISK SOURCE
•   RISK ANALYSIS                  •   RISK TOLERANCE
•   RISK APPETITE                  •   RISK TREATMENT
•   RISK ASSESSMENT                •   STAKEHOLDER
•   RISK ATTITUDE                  •   VULNERABILITY
•   RISK AVERSION
The Pivotal Definition - Risk

             “Effect of uncertainty on objectives”
NOTE 1 An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative.

NOTE 2 Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and
environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organisation-
wide, project, product and process).

NOTE 3 Risk is often characterized by reference to potential events and consequences, or
a combination of these.

NOTE 4 Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an
event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence.

NOTE 5 Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to,
understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood.

                                                                           [ISO Guide 73:2009]
KNOWLEDGE
                                                                                  ABOUT OUTCOMES



                                                        Well-defined                               Poorly
                                                        outcomes                                   defined
                                                                                                   outcomes


                            Some basis for
                            probabilities
                                                        risk                                       ambiguity



 KNOWLEDGE                                                                       “INCERTITUDE”
   ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS


                            No basis for                uncertainty                                ignorance
                            probabilities




O’Riordan, T, and Cox, P. 2001. Science, Risk, Uncertainty and Precaution.
Senior Executive’s Seminar – HRH the Prince of Wales’s Business and the Environment Programme.
University of Cambridge.
Key Definitions
•   RISK OWNER: person or entity with the accountability and
    authority to manage risk.

•   RISK ATTITUDE: organisation's approach to assess and
    eventually pursue, retain, take or turn away from risk.

•   RISK APPETITE: amount and type of risk that an
    organisation is prepared to pursue, retain or take.

•   RISK TOLERANCE: organisation's or stakeholder's
    readiness to bear the risk after treatment in order to achieve
    its objectives
    Note: Risk tolerance can be influenced by legal or regulatory
    requirements.

•   RISK AVERSION: attitude to turn away from risk.

                                                       [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
Key Definitions (Continued)…




•   RISK AGGREGATION: consideration of risks in
    combination.

•   RISK ACCEPTANCE: informed decision to take a particular
    risk.

    Note 1: Risk acceptance can occur without risk treatment or during the
    process of risk treatment
    Note 2: Accepted risks are subject to monitoring and review

•   CONTROL: measure that is modifying risk.
    Note 1: Controls include any process, policy, device, practice, or other
    actions which modify risk.
    Note 2: Controls may not always exert the intended or assumed modifying
    effect.



                                                      [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
Key Definitions (Continued)…




•   RISK RETENTION: acceptance of the potential benefit of
    gain, or burden of loss, from a particular risk.
     Note 1: Risk retention includes the acceptance of residual risks
     Note 2: The level of risk retained can depend on risk criteria.

•   RESIDUAL RISK: risk remaining after risk treatment.
    Note 1: Residual risk can contain unidentified risk
    Note 2: Residual risk can also be known as “retained risk”

•   RESILIENCE: adaptive capacity of an organisation in a
    complex and changing environment.

•   RISK PROFILE: description of any set of risks.
    Note: The set of risks can contain those that relate to the whole
    organisation, part of the organisation, or as otherwise defined.

                                                        [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
Yet to be defined…

• ACCOUNTABLE: liability for the outcomes of actions or
  decisions.
  NOTE: includes failure to act or make decisions
                                  OR
• ACCOUNTABLE: being obligated to answer for an action.

• RESPONSIBLE: obligation to carry out duties or decisions, or
  control over others
                                OR
• RESPONSIBLE: having the obligation to act.
ISO 31000:2009 - Scope

• Provides principles and generic guidelines on
  principles and implementation of risk
  management.

• Can be applied to any kind of organisation, and
  not specific to any industry or sector.

• Is NOT intended to be used for the purpose of
  certification.
ISO 31000:2009 - Users

• ISO 31000:2009 is intended to be used by a wide range
  of stakeholders including:

   – those responsible for implementing risk management
     within their organisation;
   – those who need to ensure that an organisation manages
     risk;
   – those who need to manage risk for the organisation as a
     whole or within a specific area or activity;
   – those needing to evaluate an organisation’s practices in
     managing risk; and
   – developers of standards, guides, procedures, and codes
     of practice that in whole or in part set out how risk is to
     be managed within the specific context of these
     documents.
A Business Principles Approach
     to Risk Management
Business Principles Approach
      AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Principles (Clause 3)

Risk management should….

1.    Create value
2.    An integral part of organisational processes
3.    Part of decision making
4.    Explicitly address uncertainty
5.    Be systematic and structured
6.    Be based on the best available information
7.    Be tailored
8.    Take into account human factors
9.    Be transparent and inclusive
10.   Be dynamic, iterative and responsive to change
11.   Be capable of continual improvement and
      enhancement
Attributes of enhanced
          risk management
               AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009
                      Annex A
                   (Informative)



• A pronounced emphasis on continuous
  improvement in risk management through the
  setting of organisational performance goals,
  measurement, review and the subsequent
  modification of processes, systems,
  resources and capability/skills.
Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued)




• Comprehensive, fully defined and fully
  accepted accountability for risks, controls
  and treatment tasks.

• Named individuals fully accept, are
  appropriately skilled and have adequate
  resources to check controls, monitor
  risks, improve controls and communicate
  effectively about risks and their
  management to interested parties.
Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued)




• All decision making within the
  organisation, whatever the level of
  importance and significance, involves the
  explicit consideration of risks and the
  application of the risk management
  process to some appropriate degree.
Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued)




• Continual communications and highly
  visible, comprehensive and frequent
  reporting of risk management
  performance to all “interested parties” as
  part of their accepted governance
  processes.
Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued)



       Risk management is always viewed as a core
       organisational process where risks are
       considered in terms of sources of uncertainty
       that can be treated to maximize the chance of
       gain while minimizing the chance of loss.
       Critically, effective risk management is
       regarded by senior managers as essential for
       the achievement of the organisation’s
       objectives. The organisation’s governance
       structure and process are founded on the risk
       management process.
ACCOUNTABILITY

                           SUPERVISION
Potential greater                          GOVERNANCE
future role of risk
management

                       STRATEGIC
                      MANAGEMENT
Traditional and current                    MANAGEMENT
risk management              EXECUTIVE
application
                            MANAGEMENT
                         DECISION & CONTROL
                      OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT


      Risk Management’s Role in Corporate Governance
Enterprise-wide Risk management
            Framework
                (AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Clause 4)




The framework in Clause 4 of AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 is
not intended to describe a management system; but
rather, it is to assist the organisation to integrate risk
management within its overall management system.

Therefore, organisations should adapt the components
of the framework to their specific needs.
DISCUSSION

Considering what we have discussed so
far, what do you think you are going to
need to do to align your current framework
(based on AS/NZS 4360:2004) to
AS/NZS/ISO 31000?
Risk Management Framework

Set of components that provide the foundations and
organisational arrangements for designing,
implementing,
monitoring, reviewing and continually improving risk
management throughout the organisation

NOTE 1 The foundations include the policy, objectives,
mandate and commitment to manage risk.

NOTE 2 The organisational arrangements include plans,
relationships, accountabilities, resources, processes and
activities.

NOTE 3 The risk management framework is embedded within
the organisation's overall strategic and operational policies
and practices.
                                                            [ISO Guide 73:2009]
PDCA – a starting point for a Business
Improvement focused Risk Framework

     Commitment and                                Communicate
        Mandate
  Policy Statement
                                Plan                 and Train
                                                 Communications
  Risk Management Plan                           and reporting plan
  Assurance plan                                  Training strategy
  Standards                                       RM Network
  Procedures/Guidelines




                          Act           Do
                                             Organise and Allocate
 Measure and review                          Board RM Committee
Control assurance                            Exec RM Committee
RM Plan progress                             Manager, RM
Governance reporting                         RM Champions
Benchmarking
Performance criteria            Check        Risk, Control, Risk
                                             owners
                                             Assurance providers
a) Creates value                       Mandate                              Establishing
b) Integral part of                      and                        C     the context (5.3)
   organisational                     Commitment                    o                          M
   processes                             (4.2)                      m                          o
c) Part of decision                                                 u     Risk assessment      n
   making                                                           n           (5.4)          i
d) Explicitly addresses                                             i                          t
                                        Design of
   uncertainty                                                      c                          o
                                       framework                               Risk
e) Systematic,                                                      a                          r
   structured and timely                                                   identification
                                           (4.3)                    t                          i
f) Based on the best                                                          (5.4.2)
                                                                    i                          n
   available information                                            o                          g
g) Tailored                    Continual            Implementing    n
h) Takes human and           improvement                risk               Risk analysis       &
                                                                    &
   cultural factors into        of the               Management               (5.4.3)
                                                                    c
   account                    Framework                 (4.4)                                  r
                                                                    o
i) Transparent and               (4.6)                                                         e
                                                                    n           Risk
   inclusive                                                                                   v
                                                                    s        evaluation
j) Dynamic, iterative and                                                                      i
                                                                    u          (5.4.4)
   responsive to change                                                                        e
                                       Monitoring                   l
k) Facilitates continual                                                                       w
                                       and review                   t                         (5.6)
   improvement and                       of the                     a
   enhancement of the                  Framework                    t      Risk treatment
   organisation                           (4.5)                     i           (5.5)
                                                                    o
                                                                    n
                                                                    5.2

   Principles                      Framework                               Process
   (Clause 3)                      (Clause 4)                             (Clause 5)


AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Figure 1 – Relationship between the principles, framework and process
Mandate and commitment (4.2)



                4.3 Design of framework
                      5.3.1 Understanding the organisation and its context
                      5.3.2 Risk management policy
                      5.3.3 Integration into organisational processes
                      5.3.4 Accountability
                      5.3.5 Resources
                      5.3.6 Establishing internal communication and reporting mechanisms
                      5.3.7 Establishing external communication and reporting mechanisms



                                                         4.4 Implementing risk management
  4.6 Continual improvement of the framework                   5.4.1 Implementing the framework
                                                               5.4.2 Implementing the risk management process




                                  4.5 Monitoring and review of the framework




AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Figure 2 — Relationship between the components of the framework for
                                               managing risk
• Future State/ End Vision
                             • SWOT, Opportunities and Risks
                             • Strategy & Tactics


                                Planning


            Review                                             Execution/
                               Processes
           & Change                                            Integration


• Strategic Learning            Monitor                        • Manage Tactics
• Strategic Alignment                                          • Manage Tasks
                              Performance                      • Manage Risks
• Strategic Intelligence

                           • Performance
                           • Capability
                           • External Environment
Hierarchical Objectives
• Strategic: designed to provide the direction required to
  achieve strategic goals. These are usually long-term plans
  with a minimum timeframe of three to five years.

• Tactical: designed to further the implementation of the
  strategic plan, addressing tactical goals, following a shorter
  timeframe of generally one to three years

• Operational: designed to further the implementation of
  tactical plans and addressing operational goals. These
  plans have a much shorter timeframe of usually less than
  one year, sometimes with a timeframe of months, weeks or
  days.
Organisational Objectives
There are generally three levels of objectives in any organisation,
which align to the type of plan that will be implemented to help
attain them:

•   Strategic objectives are usually very general by nature
    describing future results which have been determined by
    management. These generally describe the vision/mission for
    ensuring the success of the organisation.

•   Tactical objectives are set by middle management for specific
    departments or business units. They are aligned to the strategic
    objectives and articulate what each department or business unit
    must do to achieve higher level objectives.

•   Operational objectives are more specific in nature set by lower
    management to address the requirements set by tactical
    objectives.
Organisational Risk Criteria

                      Strategic
                     management                    Indecision
                      decision
                                               Irresponsible
                                                   Impulsive
                         Risk
        Aversion                       Excessive
                      tolerance
                                        appetite
                        range
   Denial
   Dislike         Corporate culture
Disinclination
Operational Risk Management Cycle
                                 Conduct risk
                                 profiling

Review performance         Jan
                                                        Strategic
                                                        planning




Implement and
monitor treatment                           May
actions              Sep
                                                  Determine risk
                                                  treatment
                      Budget and                  actions
                      business
                      planning
DISCUSSION

How will you align the current
objectives of your agency’s risk
management framework to address
the following objectives of
AS/NZS/ISO 31000:
– Strategic;
– Tactical; and
– Operational.
A Process for Reviewing Risk Management
         Strategies (AS/NZS/ISO 31000)

                  Establishing the context (6.3)

                  Risk assessment (6.4 )

                    Risk identification (6.4.2)

  Communication
      and                                          Monitoring
                      Risk analysis (6.4.3)          and
   Consultation
      (6.2)                                         Review
                                                     (6.6)

                     Risk evaluation (6.4.4)


                      Risk treatment (6.5)
AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 (Clause 6)
   Risk management process
• Should be an integral part of management, be
  embedded in culture and practices and
  tailored to the business processes of the
  organisation.

• Includes five activities:
   – communication and consultation;
   – establishing the context;
   – risk assessment;
   – risk treatment; and
   – monitoring and review.
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
                5.3.2 External Context
                5.3.3 Internal Context
                5.3.4 Risk Management Process Context
5.2             5.3.5 Developing Risk Criteria

C                                                                5.7
O
M                    5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION                   M
M               What can happen, when, where, how & why
U                                                            A   O
N                                                            S   N
I                        5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS
          5.4                                                S   I
C                       Determine existing controls
A                    Determine            Determine          E   T
T         R          Likelihood           Consequences           O
I         I                                                  S   R
O                         Estimate Level of Risk             S
N         S
                                                             M   &
&         K
                                                             E
C                      5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION                     R
O                                                            N   E
N                Compare against criteria.
                 Identify & assess options.                  T   V
S
                 Decide on response.
U
                 Establish priorities.
                                                                 I
L                                                                E
T
A                                                                W
T
I                       5.5 RISK TREATMENT
O                5.5.2 Selection of risk treatment options
N                5.5.3 Preparing and implementing risk
                       treatment plans

AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009          Risk management process in detail
Communicate & Consult

• Communicating risk successfully is neither a
  public relations nor a crisis communications
  exercise. Its aim is not to avoid all conflict or to
  diffuse all concerns.

• Risk communication seeks to improve
  performance based on informed, mutual
  decisions with respect to … risk.
                             Jean Mulligan, Elaine McCoy and Angela Griffiths,
                                          Principles of Communicating Risks,
                             The Macleod Institute for Environmental Analysis,
                                  University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta 1998
Step 1 : Establish the Context              Step 2 : Identify Risks                               Step 3 : Analyse Risks
• external context                          • what can happen, when, where and how                • identify controls
• internal context                          • identify key processes, tasks, activities           • determine likelihood
• risk management context                   • recognise risk areas                                • determine consequence/impact
• risk criteria (i.e. threshold levels)     • define risks                                        • determine level of risk
• define the structure                      • categorise risk




Step 6 : Monitor and Review Risks                 Communicate and                         Step 4 : Evaluate Risks
• process                                        consult - at all steps                   • identify tolerable/unacceptable risks
• environment                                                                             (referring risk rating against risk criteria)
• organisation                                                                            • prioritise risks for treatment
• strategy
• stakeholders



           Accept/Retain                           Step 5 : Treat Risks                    Share
           • based on judgement or                                                         • insurance
           documented                                                                      • outsourcing
           procedures/policy

           Avoid                                                                           Reduce likelihood
           • consider discontinuing or                                                     • controls
           avoiding activity                    Reduce consequence                         • process improvement
           • consult                            • Business Continuity Plans                • training & education
           • risk treatment preferable to       • contractual arrangements                 • policies and communication
           risk aversion                        • public relations                         • audit and compliance


      Communication & Consultation in the risk management process
Getting the message across
                       Message Development
   Accessibility                                   Distribution


Source Acceptance            Delivery          Channel Acceptance

                                                   Observation
    Interest                 Attention
                                               Competing Information

Recipient Attributes                            Message Attributes
                          Understanding
 Beliefs & Values                                 Threat Context

Recipient Capability                           Information Adequacy
                       Analysis & Acceptance
 Source Credibility                              Cultural Factors

   Imperatives                                   Competing Issues

 Time Availability
                         Decision Making
                                                 Org/Env Factors

 Org Capabilities                              ResourceAvailability
                                               Resource Availability

 Drive vs Inertia             Action               Competence
DISCUSSION

How does your agency currently communicate
with external and internal stakeholders?

Does your current approach inform stakeholders
and contribute to informed decision making?

If not, what do you need to do to ensure the
effective communication of risk in your agency?
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
                 5.3.2 External Context
                 5.3.3 Internal Context
                 5.3.4 Risk Management Process Context
  5.2            5.3.5 Developing Risk Criteria

   C                                                         5.7
   O
   M                                                         M
   M                  5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
   U                                                     A   O
   N                                                     S   N
   I                                                         I
   C
           5.4            5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS            S
   A                                                     E   T
   T        R                                                O
   I        I                                            S   R
   O                                                     S
   N        S
                                                         M   &
   &        K
                                                         E
   C                                                         R
   O                                                     N   E
   N                    5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION            T
   S                                                         V
   U                                                         I
   L                                                         E
   T
   A                                                         W
   T
   I                     5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   O
   N



AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009          Risk management process in detail
Establish the Context

•   Objectives and environment
•   Relevant Legislation
•   Stakeholder identification & analysis
•   Government Policy
•   Corporate Policy
•   Management Structures
•   Community Expectations
•   Criteria
•   Consequence criteria
S to rie s
                        (b u sin ess
                     e x p e rie n c e s)                         S y m b o ls



         R itu a ls &                          An
         R o u tin e s                 O rg an isa tio n ’s                    P o w er
                                          P a ra d ig m                     S tru ctu res



                         C o n tro l
                         S y ste m s                 O rg an isa tio n a l
                                                        S tru c tu re s



A d a p te d fro m Jo h n so n & S c h o le s, 1 9 9 3 , p .6 1
DISCUSSION

Establishing the context for
managing risk is often difficult.

What does your agency do to assist
staff to adopt a consistent approach
to identifying the context for
managing risk?
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
  5.2
   C                                                           5.7
   O
   M                 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION                 M
   M             What can happen, when, where, how & why
   U                                                       A   O
   N                                                       S   N
   I                                                           I
   C
           5.4                                             S
                         5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS                   T
   A                                                       E
   T        R                                                  O
   I        I                                              S   R
   O                                                       S
   N        S
                                                           M   &
   &        K
                                                           E
   C                                                           R
   O                                                       N   E
   N                    5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION              T
   S                                                           V
   U                                                           I
   L                                                           E
   T
   A                                                           W
   T
   I
   O                    5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   N



AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009         Risk management process in detail
Identification of sources of risk

•   Personnel/human behaviour.
•   Management activities and controls.
•   Economic circumstances.
•   Natural and unnatural events.
•   Political circumstances.
•   Technology/technical issues.
•   Commercial and legal relationships.
•   Public/professional/product liability.
•   The activity itself.
Components of a risk
A risk is associated with:

•   A source of risk or hazard.

•   An event or incident – something that occurs such that the
    source of risk has the impact concerned.

•   A consequence, outcome or impact on a range of
    stakeholders and assets.

•    A cause (what and why) (usually a string of direct and
    underlying causes) for the presence of the hazard or the
    event occurring.

•   Controls and their level of effectiveness.

•   When could the risk occur and where could it occur.
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
  5.2
   C                                                       5.7
   O
   M                                                       M
   M               5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
   U                                                   A   O
   N                                                   S   N
   I                  5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS
           5.4                                         S   I
   C                  Determine existing controls
   A               Determine            Determine      E   T
   T        R      Likelihood           Consequences       O
   I        I                                          S   R
   O                   Estimate Level of Risk          S
   N        S
                                                       M   &
   &        K
                                                       E
   C                                                       R
   O                                                   N   E
   N                                                   T
   S                 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION                 V
   U                                                       I
   L                                                       E
   T
   A                                                       W
   T
   I                 5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   O
   N



AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009      Risk management process in detail
Risk Analysis

Where possible, confidence limits placed on
estimates and the best available information
sources are used.
Purpose:
 • Separate minor risks from major.
 • Provide data to assist in evaluation.
Preliminary analysis:
 • Excluded risks where possible should be
   listed.
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
  5.2
   C                                                     5.7
   O
   M                                                      M
   M                5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
   U                                            A         O
   N                                            S         N
   I                                                      I
   C
           5.4                                  S
                        5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS               T
   A                                            E
   T        R                                             O
   I        I                                   S         R
   O                                            S
   N        S
                                                M         &
   &        K
                                                E
   C                   5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION              R
   O                                            N         E
   N             Compare against criteria.
                 Identify & assess options.     T         V
   S
                 Decide on response.
   U
                 Establish priorities.
                                                          I
   L                                                      E
   T
   A                                                      W
   T
   I                    5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   O
   N



AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009         Risk management process in detail
Risk Evaluation
Consider:

•   Objectives of projects and opportunities
•   Tolerability of risks to others
•   Whether a risk needs treatment
•   Deciding whether risk can be tolerated
•   Whether an activity should be undertaken
•   Priorities for treatment
•   Comparing levels of risk found in analysis with
    previously established criteria.
Risk magnitude
                                                    Risk cannot be
       Intolerable                                  justified except in
       Region                                       extraordinary
                                                    circumstances
L
E
V
                                              Tolerable only if risk
E
L As                                          reduction is
                                              impracticable
  Low                                         or if its cost is greatly
O                                             disproportionate to the
F As                                          improvement gained
  Reasonably
R
I
  Practicable
                                         Tolerable if cost of reduction
S                                        would exceed the
K                                        improvements
                                         gained
    Broadly acceptable region      Necessary to maintain
       “de minimus” risk           assurance
                                   that the risk remains at this
                                   level
VALUE AT RISK $ ►




                            }
                        •   SATISFACTORY


                                   MOST COST EFFECTIVE




                             }
                                              ACCEPTED PRACTICE

                                                     BEST ACHIEVABLE




                                           }
                                                                       ABSOLUTE




                                                   }
                                                                        MINIMUM




                                                  }
                      COST OF REDUCING RISK ($) ►
THE TRADE-OFF BETWEEN LEVEL OF RISK AND
  COST OF REDUCING RISK B.F.Hough 1985
Cost of risk reduction measures

V
A
L   I
U   M
E   P
    L
A   E
T   M
    E
    N
R   T     USE
I
          JUDGEMENT
S                     UNECONOMICAL
K
    COST OF RISK REDUCTION MEASURES
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
  5.2
   C                                                             5.7
   O
   M                                                             M
   M                5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
   U                                                         A   O
   N                                                         S   N
   I                                                             I
   C
           5.4                                               S
                         5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS                     T
   A                                                         E
   T        R                                                    O
   I        I                                                S   R
   O                                                         S
   N        S
                                                             M   &
   &        K
                                                             E
   C                                                             R
   O                                                         N   E
   N                   5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION                 T
   S                                                             V
   U                                                             I
   L                                                             E
   T
   A                                                             W
   T
   I                    5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   O             5.5.2 Selection of risk treatment options
   N             5.5.3 Preparing and implementing risk
                       treatment plans


AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009         Risk management process in detail
Risk Treatment
• Reduce
   – Likelihood
   – Consequence

•   Contingency planning

•    Sharing in full or part (this creates a new
    risk)

•   Avoid (but not because of aversion)

•   Retain residual
Step 1 - Commencement


                                                                                             Step 2 – Risk & Vulnerability Analysis


                                                                                              Step 3 - Conduct a Business Impact
                             Establish the Context                                                         Analysis
   Communicate and Consult




                                                                                            Step 4 - Define Response Strategies




                                                                       Monitor and Review
                               Identify the risks




                                                     Risk Assessment
                                                                                                Step 5– Developing Resource &
                                                                                                Interdependency Requirements



                               Analyse the risks                                            Step 6 -Develop Continuity Plans for the
                                                                                                       chosen Strategy



                                                                                              Step 7 - Develop a Communication
                                                                                                           Strategy
                              Evaluate the risks

                                                                                            Step 8 – Training, Maintaining & Testing
                                                                                                              Plans

                                Treat the risks
                                                                                            Step 9 – Activation & Deployment of
                                                                                            Plans



HB 221:2004 BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT
Contingency Planning

Business Continuity Management:

•   Emergency evacuation plans
•   Off site data & information storage
•   Business contingency plans
•   Business relocation plans
•   Business resumption plans
•   Review, reassess and revise plans
Treatment Options
Consider:

•   Opportunities created by risk
•   Cost of implementation vs. benefits
•   Extent of risk reduction vs. benefits
•   Criteria of tolerability
•   Rare but severe risks
•   Risk perception and communication

    In general, costs of managing risk
    commensurate with benefits and adverse
    impacts as low as reasonably
    achievable.
Treatment Plans

Document how options implemented:
• Responsibilities
• Schedules
• Expected outcomes
• Budgeting
• Performance measures
• Review processes
5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT
  5.2
                                                     5.7
   C
   O                                                  M
   M
   M               5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION          O
   U                                            A     N
   N                                            S
   I
           5.4                                        I
   C                                            S
   A                  5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS       E
                                                      T
   T        R                                         O
   I        I                                   S
   O                                            S     R
   N        S
            K                                   M
   &
                                                E     &
   C
   O                                            N
   N                                            T     R
   S                 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION
   U                                                  E
   L                                                  V
   T
   A                                                  I
   T
   I                                                  E
                     5.5 RISK TREATMENT
   O                                                  W
   N



AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009     Risk management process in detail
DISCUSSION

Does your current risk management
framework document how your
treatment options will be
implemented?

Is there a consistent approach in
your agency to ensure that the cost
of managing risk is considered?
Improving The Management of Risk
Monitor and Review

•   RM is a journey not a destination.
•   What may be of minor significance today may be
    the disaster of tomorrow.
•   Review is an integral part of the risk management
    process.
AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009
           Extending The Process
The role of assurance activity, not just as a risk control,
but as part of ‘Monitor and Review’ should be developed.
This should go further than just audit.
Other interested stakeholders can also benefit from the
risk process, such as quality assurance, security, safety &
environment management. The process is all about
facilitating linkages between different stakeholders across
the organisation
AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009
Role Of Assurance Activity
Internal Audits’ Role in ERM –
       priority should be given to…
•   High exposure risks, that is, where the
    consequence of the event could be high
•   High current residual risks, where there is
    evidence of low control effectiveness
•   The potential for failure of controls, especially
    where this would result in high, or frequent,
    consequences
•   Activities where change could give rise to
    significant risk
•   Parts of the organisation that are consciously
    exposed to high levels of risk
•   Technological advances that may offer more
    effective or lower cost alternatives to current
    risk treatment
        HB 158—2006 Delivering assurance based on AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management
Internal Audits’ Role in ERM –
                       who does what?
                            Legitimate Internal Audit roles with safeguards




                                                         Central coordinating point for ERM
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     Giving assurance that the
                                   control systems are effective                                                                                                                                       Accountability for risks and control

                                                   HB 158—2006 Delivering assurance based on AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management
DISCUSSION

• What are the internal reporting and
  recording processes that your agency has
  in place?

• What is the role that internal audit
  undertakes in reviewing and monitoring
  your agency’s risk management
  framework and programs?
Reporting

• Reporting is incidental to good RM, not the sole
  focus of it!
• If you only focus on reporting, you will not motivate
  the required culture change
• Advanced Governance Codes (e.g. LSX and ASX)
  require two sets of reports:
   – The maturity and performance of the RM
      framework
   – The risk profile and how/why it has changed
Recording the Risk
              Management Process
•   Demonstrates process conducted properly.
•   Provides a record of risks.
•   Provides decision makers with plan for approval and
    implementation.
•   Provides accountability tool.
•   Facilitates monitoring and review.
•   Provides an audit trail.
•   Enables sharing and communication of information.
And Finally!!
•   AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 is the natural successor to
    the AS/NZS 4360 Standard
•   Hopefully it will also dislodge COSO
•   It encourages ‘ERM’, but also provides for silo/project
    risk management
•   Following AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 will provide a low
    cost, high chance of success approach to ERM
•   AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 will add value and reduce risk
    in risk management

Managing risk is about creating value
          out of uncertainty
The greatest risk of all
is to take no risk at all!
The Journey Continues


                   A journey ……….    A race                        In pursuit of performance     Building Value

AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 provides generic guidance on how to embed
 risk management, and introduces the concept of “positive” risk to
                                    help you on the way.


                                C          1. Strategic Ct     M
                                O                              O
                                M                              N
                                M                              I
                                U        2. Identify Threats   T
                                N                              O
                                I                              R
                                C
                                A    A      3. Analyze         &
                                T    S       4. Assess
                                E    S                         R
                                     E                         E
                                             5. Assess/
                                     S                         V
                                C    S                         I

                                                                                             Opportunities   Risks
                                O                              E
                                N                              W
                                S
                                         7. Manage the Risk
                                U


                                                                   Culture   Communication
                                L
                                T




       Structure    Direction            Processes

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2009 irmcaug iso31000

  • 1. TRANSITIONING TO THE NEW RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Kevin W Knight AM CPRM; Hon FRMIA; FIRM (UK); LMRMIA. CHAIRMAN ISO WORKING GROUP - RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD MEMBER STANDARDS AUSTRALIA / STANDARDS NEW ZEALAND JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE OB/7 - RISK MANAGEMENT 08/2009
  • 2. Why a new standard? AS/NZS 4360:2004 • Was due for update in 2009 • The most widely used global RM Standard ISO 31000 is a paramount standard • Like 9000 and 14000 • Will guide all other ISO/IEC standards with respect to RM process • Will replace national RM standards ISO Guide 73 • Global vocabulary of risk management terms • Being re-written by same WG, in parallel with ISO 31000 IEC 31010 Risk Management - Risk Assessment Techniques • Reflects current good practices in selection and utilisation of RM techniques • Being written in with the involvement of the same WG, in parallel with ISO 31000 and ISO Guide 73
  • 3. Terms of Reference (as approved by ISO TMB) • The Working Group develop a document which provides principles and practical guidance to the risk management process. • The document is applicable to all organisations, regardless of type, size, activities and location and should apply to all type of risk. • The document should establish a common concept of risk management process and common related concepts.
  • 4. Terms of Reference, as approved by ISO TMB (Continued)… • The document should provide practical guidelines to: – Understand how to implement risk management – Identify and treat all types of risk – treat and manage the identified risks, – improve an organisation's performance through the management of risk, – maximize opportunities and minimize losses in the organisation; – raise awareness of the need to treat and manage risk in organisations. • Type of deliverable The standard to be developed is a Guideline document, and is NOT to be used for the purpose of certification.
  • 5. ISO Guide 73 - Scope • Provides a basic vocabulary of the definitions of generic terms related to risk management • Aims to encourage a mutual and consistent understanding, a coherent approach to the description of activities relating to the management of risk, and use of risk management terminology in processes and frameworks dealing with the management of risk.
  • 6. Terms included in ISO Guide 73 • COMMUNICATION & CONSULTATION • RISK AVOIDANCE • CONSEQUENCE • RISK CRITERIA • CONTROL • RISK EVALUATION • ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT • RISK FINANCING • EVENT • RISK IDENTIFICATION • EXPOSURE • RISK MANAGEMENT • EXTERNAL CONTEXT • RISK MANAGEMENT AUDIT • FREQUENCY • RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK • HAZARD • RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN • INTERNAL CONTEXT • RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY • LEVEL OF RISK • RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS • LIKELIHOOD • RISK MATRIX • MONITORING • RISK OWNER • PROBABILITY • RISK PERCEPTION • RESIDUAL RISK • RISK PROFILE • RESILIENCE • RISK REGISTER • REVIEW • RISK REPORTING • RISK • RISK RETENTION • RISK ACCEPTANCE • RISK SHARING • RISK AGGREGATION • RISK SOURCE • RISK ANALYSIS • RISK TOLERANCE • RISK APPETITE • RISK TREATMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT • STAKEHOLDER • RISK ATTITUDE • VULNERABILITY • RISK AVERSION
  • 7. The Pivotal Definition - Risk “Effect of uncertainty on objectives” NOTE 1 An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative. NOTE 2 Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organisation- wide, project, product and process). NOTE 3 Risk is often characterized by reference to potential events and consequences, or a combination of these. NOTE 4 Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence. NOTE 5 Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood. [ISO Guide 73:2009]
  • 8. KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUTCOMES Well-defined Poorly outcomes defined outcomes Some basis for probabilities risk ambiguity KNOWLEDGE “INCERTITUDE” ABOUT LIKELIHOODS No basis for uncertainty ignorance probabilities O’Riordan, T, and Cox, P. 2001. Science, Risk, Uncertainty and Precaution. Senior Executive’s Seminar – HRH the Prince of Wales’s Business and the Environment Programme. University of Cambridge.
  • 9. Key Definitions • RISK OWNER: person or entity with the accountability and authority to manage risk. • RISK ATTITUDE: organisation's approach to assess and eventually pursue, retain, take or turn away from risk. • RISK APPETITE: amount and type of risk that an organisation is prepared to pursue, retain or take. • RISK TOLERANCE: organisation's or stakeholder's readiness to bear the risk after treatment in order to achieve its objectives Note: Risk tolerance can be influenced by legal or regulatory requirements. • RISK AVERSION: attitude to turn away from risk. [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
  • 10. Key Definitions (Continued)… • RISK AGGREGATION: consideration of risks in combination. • RISK ACCEPTANCE: informed decision to take a particular risk. Note 1: Risk acceptance can occur without risk treatment or during the process of risk treatment Note 2: Accepted risks are subject to monitoring and review • CONTROL: measure that is modifying risk. Note 1: Controls include any process, policy, device, practice, or other actions which modify risk. Note 2: Controls may not always exert the intended or assumed modifying effect. [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
  • 11. Key Definitions (Continued)… • RISK RETENTION: acceptance of the potential benefit of gain, or burden of loss, from a particular risk. Note 1: Risk retention includes the acceptance of residual risks Note 2: The level of risk retained can depend on risk criteria. • RESIDUAL RISK: risk remaining after risk treatment. Note 1: Residual risk can contain unidentified risk Note 2: Residual risk can also be known as “retained risk” • RESILIENCE: adaptive capacity of an organisation in a complex and changing environment. • RISK PROFILE: description of any set of risks. Note: The set of risks can contain those that relate to the whole organisation, part of the organisation, or as otherwise defined. [ISO CD Guide 73:2009]
  • 12. Yet to be defined… • ACCOUNTABLE: liability for the outcomes of actions or decisions. NOTE: includes failure to act or make decisions OR • ACCOUNTABLE: being obligated to answer for an action. • RESPONSIBLE: obligation to carry out duties or decisions, or control over others OR • RESPONSIBLE: having the obligation to act.
  • 13. ISO 31000:2009 - Scope • Provides principles and generic guidelines on principles and implementation of risk management. • Can be applied to any kind of organisation, and not specific to any industry or sector. • Is NOT intended to be used for the purpose of certification.
  • 14. ISO 31000:2009 - Users • ISO 31000:2009 is intended to be used by a wide range of stakeholders including: – those responsible for implementing risk management within their organisation; – those who need to ensure that an organisation manages risk; – those who need to manage risk for the organisation as a whole or within a specific area or activity; – those needing to evaluate an organisation’s practices in managing risk; and – developers of standards, guides, procedures, and codes of practice that in whole or in part set out how risk is to be managed within the specific context of these documents.
  • 15. A Business Principles Approach to Risk Management
  • 16. Business Principles Approach AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Principles (Clause 3) Risk management should…. 1. Create value 2. An integral part of organisational processes 3. Part of decision making 4. Explicitly address uncertainty 5. Be systematic and structured 6. Be based on the best available information 7. Be tailored 8. Take into account human factors 9. Be transparent and inclusive 10. Be dynamic, iterative and responsive to change 11. Be capable of continual improvement and enhancement
  • 17. Attributes of enhanced risk management AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Annex A (Informative) • A pronounced emphasis on continuous improvement in risk management through the setting of organisational performance goals, measurement, review and the subsequent modification of processes, systems, resources and capability/skills.
  • 18. Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued) • Comprehensive, fully defined and fully accepted accountability for risks, controls and treatment tasks. • Named individuals fully accept, are appropriately skilled and have adequate resources to check controls, monitor risks, improve controls and communicate effectively about risks and their management to interested parties.
  • 19. Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued) • All decision making within the organisation, whatever the level of importance and significance, involves the explicit consideration of risks and the application of the risk management process to some appropriate degree.
  • 20. Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued) • Continual communications and highly visible, comprehensive and frequent reporting of risk management performance to all “interested parties” as part of their accepted governance processes.
  • 21. Attributes of enhanced risk management (Continued) Risk management is always viewed as a core organisational process where risks are considered in terms of sources of uncertainty that can be treated to maximize the chance of gain while minimizing the chance of loss. Critically, effective risk management is regarded by senior managers as essential for the achievement of the organisation’s objectives. The organisation’s governance structure and process are founded on the risk management process.
  • 22. ACCOUNTABILITY SUPERVISION Potential greater GOVERNANCE future role of risk management STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT Traditional and current MANAGEMENT risk management EXECUTIVE application MANAGEMENT DECISION & CONTROL OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT Risk Management’s Role in Corporate Governance
  • 23. Enterprise-wide Risk management Framework (AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Clause 4) The framework in Clause 4 of AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 is not intended to describe a management system; but rather, it is to assist the organisation to integrate risk management within its overall management system. Therefore, organisations should adapt the components of the framework to their specific needs.
  • 24. DISCUSSION Considering what we have discussed so far, what do you think you are going to need to do to align your current framework (based on AS/NZS 4360:2004) to AS/NZS/ISO 31000?
  • 25. Risk Management Framework Set of components that provide the foundations and organisational arrangements for designing, implementing, monitoring, reviewing and continually improving risk management throughout the organisation NOTE 1 The foundations include the policy, objectives, mandate and commitment to manage risk. NOTE 2 The organisational arrangements include plans, relationships, accountabilities, resources, processes and activities. NOTE 3 The risk management framework is embedded within the organisation's overall strategic and operational policies and practices. [ISO Guide 73:2009]
  • 26. PDCA – a starting point for a Business Improvement focused Risk Framework Commitment and Communicate Mandate Policy Statement Plan and Train Communications Risk Management Plan and reporting plan Assurance plan Training strategy Standards RM Network Procedures/Guidelines Act Do Organise and Allocate Measure and review Board RM Committee Control assurance Exec RM Committee RM Plan progress Manager, RM Governance reporting RM Champions Benchmarking Performance criteria Check Risk, Control, Risk owners Assurance providers
  • 27. a) Creates value Mandate Establishing b) Integral part of and C the context (5.3) organisational Commitment o M processes (4.2) m o c) Part of decision u Risk assessment n making n (5.4) i d) Explicitly addresses i t Design of uncertainty c o framework Risk e) Systematic, a r structured and timely identification (4.3) t i f) Based on the best (5.4.2) i n available information o g g) Tailored Continual Implementing n h) Takes human and improvement risk Risk analysis & & cultural factors into of the Management (5.4.3) c account Framework (4.4) r o i) Transparent and (4.6) e n Risk inclusive v s evaluation j) Dynamic, iterative and i u (5.4.4) responsive to change e Monitoring l k) Facilitates continual w and review t (5.6) improvement and of the a enhancement of the Framework t Risk treatment organisation (4.5) i (5.5) o n 5.2 Principles Framework Process (Clause 3) (Clause 4) (Clause 5) AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Figure 1 – Relationship between the principles, framework and process
  • 28. Mandate and commitment (4.2) 4.3 Design of framework 5.3.1 Understanding the organisation and its context 5.3.2 Risk management policy 5.3.3 Integration into organisational processes 5.3.4 Accountability 5.3.5 Resources 5.3.6 Establishing internal communication and reporting mechanisms 5.3.7 Establishing external communication and reporting mechanisms 4.4 Implementing risk management 4.6 Continual improvement of the framework 5.4.1 Implementing the framework 5.4.2 Implementing the risk management process 4.5 Monitoring and review of the framework AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Figure 2 — Relationship between the components of the framework for managing risk
  • 29. • Future State/ End Vision • SWOT, Opportunities and Risks • Strategy & Tactics Planning Review Execution/ Processes & Change Integration • Strategic Learning Monitor • Manage Tactics • Strategic Alignment • Manage Tasks Performance • Manage Risks • Strategic Intelligence • Performance • Capability • External Environment
  • 30. Hierarchical Objectives • Strategic: designed to provide the direction required to achieve strategic goals. These are usually long-term plans with a minimum timeframe of three to five years. • Tactical: designed to further the implementation of the strategic plan, addressing tactical goals, following a shorter timeframe of generally one to three years • Operational: designed to further the implementation of tactical plans and addressing operational goals. These plans have a much shorter timeframe of usually less than one year, sometimes with a timeframe of months, weeks or days.
  • 31. Organisational Objectives There are generally three levels of objectives in any organisation, which align to the type of plan that will be implemented to help attain them: • Strategic objectives are usually very general by nature describing future results which have been determined by management. These generally describe the vision/mission for ensuring the success of the organisation. • Tactical objectives are set by middle management for specific departments or business units. They are aligned to the strategic objectives and articulate what each department or business unit must do to achieve higher level objectives. • Operational objectives are more specific in nature set by lower management to address the requirements set by tactical objectives.
  • 32. Organisational Risk Criteria Strategic management Indecision decision Irresponsible Impulsive Risk Aversion Excessive tolerance appetite range Denial Dislike Corporate culture Disinclination
  • 33. Operational Risk Management Cycle Conduct risk profiling Review performance Jan Strategic planning Implement and monitor treatment May actions Sep Determine risk treatment Budget and actions business planning
  • 34. DISCUSSION How will you align the current objectives of your agency’s risk management framework to address the following objectives of AS/NZS/ISO 31000: – Strategic; – Tactical; and – Operational.
  • 35. A Process for Reviewing Risk Management Strategies (AS/NZS/ISO 31000) Establishing the context (6.3) Risk assessment (6.4 ) Risk identification (6.4.2) Communication and Monitoring Risk analysis (6.4.3) and Consultation (6.2) Review (6.6) Risk evaluation (6.4.4) Risk treatment (6.5)
  • 36. AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 (Clause 6) Risk management process • Should be an integral part of management, be embedded in culture and practices and tailored to the business processes of the organisation. • Includes five activities: – communication and consultation; – establishing the context; – risk assessment; – risk treatment; and – monitoring and review.
  • 37. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.3.2 External Context 5.3.3 Internal Context 5.3.4 Risk Management Process Context 5.2 5.3.5 Developing Risk Criteria C 5.7 O M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION M M What can happen, when, where, how & why U A O N S N I 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS 5.4 S I C Determine existing controls A Determine Determine E T T R Likelihood Consequences O I I S R O Estimate Level of Risk S N S M & & K E C 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION R O N E N Compare against criteria. Identify & assess options. T V S Decide on response. U Establish priorities. I L E T A W T I 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O 5.5.2 Selection of risk treatment options N 5.5.3 Preparing and implementing risk treatment plans AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 38. Communicate & Consult • Communicating risk successfully is neither a public relations nor a crisis communications exercise. Its aim is not to avoid all conflict or to diffuse all concerns. • Risk communication seeks to improve performance based on informed, mutual decisions with respect to … risk. Jean Mulligan, Elaine McCoy and Angela Griffiths, Principles of Communicating Risks, The Macleod Institute for Environmental Analysis, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta 1998
  • 39. Step 1 : Establish the Context Step 2 : Identify Risks Step 3 : Analyse Risks • external context • what can happen, when, where and how • identify controls • internal context • identify key processes, tasks, activities • determine likelihood • risk management context • recognise risk areas • determine consequence/impact • risk criteria (i.e. threshold levels) • define risks • determine level of risk • define the structure • categorise risk Step 6 : Monitor and Review Risks Communicate and Step 4 : Evaluate Risks • process consult - at all steps • identify tolerable/unacceptable risks • environment (referring risk rating against risk criteria) • organisation • prioritise risks for treatment • strategy • stakeholders Accept/Retain Step 5 : Treat Risks Share • based on judgement or • insurance documented • outsourcing procedures/policy Avoid Reduce likelihood • consider discontinuing or • controls avoiding activity Reduce consequence • process improvement • consult • Business Continuity Plans • training & education • risk treatment preferable to • contractual arrangements • policies and communication risk aversion • public relations • audit and compliance Communication & Consultation in the risk management process
  • 40. Getting the message across Message Development Accessibility Distribution Source Acceptance Delivery Channel Acceptance Observation Interest Attention Competing Information Recipient Attributes Message Attributes Understanding Beliefs & Values Threat Context Recipient Capability Information Adequacy Analysis & Acceptance Source Credibility Cultural Factors Imperatives Competing Issues Time Availability Decision Making Org/Env Factors Org Capabilities ResourceAvailability Resource Availability Drive vs Inertia Action Competence
  • 41. DISCUSSION How does your agency currently communicate with external and internal stakeholders? Does your current approach inform stakeholders and contribute to informed decision making? If not, what do you need to do to ensure the effective communication of risk in your agency?
  • 42. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.3.2 External Context 5.3.3 Internal Context 5.3.4 Risk Management Process Context 5.2 5.3.5 Developing Risk Criteria C 5.7 O M M M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION U A O N S N I I C 5.4 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS S A E T T R O I I S R O S N S M & & K E C R O N E N 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION T S V U I L E T A W T I 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O N AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 43. Establish the Context • Objectives and environment • Relevant Legislation • Stakeholder identification & analysis • Government Policy • Corporate Policy • Management Structures • Community Expectations • Criteria • Consequence criteria
  • 44. S to rie s (b u sin ess e x p e rie n c e s) S y m b o ls R itu a ls & An R o u tin e s O rg an isa tio n ’s P o w er P a ra d ig m S tru ctu res C o n tro l S y ste m s O rg an isa tio n a l S tru c tu re s A d a p te d fro m Jo h n so n & S c h o le s, 1 9 9 3 , p .6 1
  • 45. DISCUSSION Establishing the context for managing risk is often difficult. What does your agency do to assist staff to adopt a consistent approach to identifying the context for managing risk?
  • 46. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.2 C 5.7 O M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION M M What can happen, when, where, how & why U A O N S N I I C 5.4 S 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS T A E T R O I I S R O S N S M & & K E C R O N E N 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION T S V U I L E T A W T I O 5.5 RISK TREATMENT N AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 47. Identification of sources of risk • Personnel/human behaviour. • Management activities and controls. • Economic circumstances. • Natural and unnatural events. • Political circumstances. • Technology/technical issues. • Commercial and legal relationships. • Public/professional/product liability. • The activity itself.
  • 48. Components of a risk A risk is associated with: • A source of risk or hazard. • An event or incident – something that occurs such that the source of risk has the impact concerned. • A consequence, outcome or impact on a range of stakeholders and assets. • A cause (what and why) (usually a string of direct and underlying causes) for the presence of the hazard or the event occurring. • Controls and their level of effectiveness. • When could the risk occur and where could it occur.
  • 49. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.2 C 5.7 O M M M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION U A O N S N I 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS 5.4 S I C Determine existing controls A Determine Determine E T T R Likelihood Consequences O I I S R O Estimate Level of Risk S N S M & & K E C R O N E N T S 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION V U I L E T A W T I 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O N AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 50. Risk Analysis Where possible, confidence limits placed on estimates and the best available information sources are used. Purpose: • Separate minor risks from major. • Provide data to assist in evaluation. Preliminary analysis: • Excluded risks where possible should be listed.
  • 51. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.2 C 5.7 O M M M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION U A O N S N I I C 5.4 S 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS T A E T R O I I S R O S N S M & & K E C 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION R O N E N Compare against criteria. Identify & assess options. T V S Decide on response. U Establish priorities. I L E T A W T I 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O N AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 52. Risk Evaluation Consider: • Objectives of projects and opportunities • Tolerability of risks to others • Whether a risk needs treatment • Deciding whether risk can be tolerated • Whether an activity should be undertaken • Priorities for treatment • Comparing levels of risk found in analysis with previously established criteria.
  • 53. Risk magnitude Risk cannot be Intolerable justified except in Region extraordinary circumstances L E V Tolerable only if risk E L As reduction is impracticable Low or if its cost is greatly O disproportionate to the F As improvement gained Reasonably R I Practicable Tolerable if cost of reduction S would exceed the K improvements gained Broadly acceptable region Necessary to maintain “de minimus” risk assurance that the risk remains at this level
  • 54. VALUE AT RISK $ ► } • SATISFACTORY MOST COST EFFECTIVE } ACCEPTED PRACTICE BEST ACHIEVABLE } ABSOLUTE } MINIMUM } COST OF REDUCING RISK ($) ► THE TRADE-OFF BETWEEN LEVEL OF RISK AND COST OF REDUCING RISK B.F.Hough 1985
  • 55. Cost of risk reduction measures V A L I U M E P L A E T M E N R T USE I JUDGEMENT S UNECONOMICAL K COST OF RISK REDUCTION MEASURES
  • 56. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.2 C 5.7 O M M M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION U A O N S N I I C 5.4 S 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS T A E T R O I I S R O S N S M & & K E C R O N E N 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION T S V U I L E T A W T I 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O 5.5.2 Selection of risk treatment options N 5.5.3 Preparing and implementing risk treatment plans AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 57. Risk Treatment • Reduce – Likelihood – Consequence • Contingency planning • Sharing in full or part (this creates a new risk) • Avoid (but not because of aversion) • Retain residual
  • 58. Step 1 - Commencement Step 2 – Risk & Vulnerability Analysis Step 3 - Conduct a Business Impact Establish the Context Analysis Communicate and Consult Step 4 - Define Response Strategies Monitor and Review Identify the risks Risk Assessment Step 5– Developing Resource & Interdependency Requirements Analyse the risks Step 6 -Develop Continuity Plans for the chosen Strategy Step 7 - Develop a Communication Strategy Evaluate the risks Step 8 – Training, Maintaining & Testing Plans Treat the risks Step 9 – Activation & Deployment of Plans HB 221:2004 BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT
  • 59. Contingency Planning Business Continuity Management: • Emergency evacuation plans • Off site data & information storage • Business contingency plans • Business relocation plans • Business resumption plans • Review, reassess and revise plans
  • 60. Treatment Options Consider: • Opportunities created by risk • Cost of implementation vs. benefits • Extent of risk reduction vs. benefits • Criteria of tolerability • Rare but severe risks • Risk perception and communication In general, costs of managing risk commensurate with benefits and adverse impacts as low as reasonably achievable.
  • 61. Treatment Plans Document how options implemented: • Responsibilities • Schedules • Expected outcomes • Budgeting • Performance measures • Review processes
  • 62. 5.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 5.2 5.7 C O M M M 5.4.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION O U A N N S I 5.4 I C S A 5.4.3 RISK ANALYSIS E T T R O I I S O S R N S K M & E & C O N N T R S 5.4.4 RISK EVALUATION U E L V T A I T I E 5.5 RISK TREATMENT O W N AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Risk management process in detail
  • 63. DISCUSSION Does your current risk management framework document how your treatment options will be implemented? Is there a consistent approach in your agency to ensure that the cost of managing risk is considered?
  • 65. Monitor and Review • RM is a journey not a destination. • What may be of minor significance today may be the disaster of tomorrow. • Review is an integral part of the risk management process.
  • 66. AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Extending The Process The role of assurance activity, not just as a risk control, but as part of ‘Monitor and Review’ should be developed. This should go further than just audit. Other interested stakeholders can also benefit from the risk process, such as quality assurance, security, safety & environment management. The process is all about facilitating linkages between different stakeholders across the organisation
  • 67. AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 Role Of Assurance Activity
  • 68. Internal Audits’ Role in ERM – priority should be given to… • High exposure risks, that is, where the consequence of the event could be high • High current residual risks, where there is evidence of low control effectiveness • The potential for failure of controls, especially where this would result in high, or frequent, consequences • Activities where change could give rise to significant risk • Parts of the organisation that are consciously exposed to high levels of risk • Technological advances that may offer more effective or lower cost alternatives to current risk treatment HB 158—2006 Delivering assurance based on AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management
  • 69. Internal Audits’ Role in ERM – who does what? Legitimate Internal Audit roles with safeguards Central coordinating point for ERM Facilitati s ines Faci s n risk ss the bus rk Roles litatin Ch ng Mana ewo Core ting o am Internal val fram g ris pi o Internal pro Gi repor risks acro nin k wo vin Audit gement’ RM ap ge ga Audit roles te ard eE tic rksh eti dv Re sta should not pp Bo Holis ice vie g th bl i s ka ops s respon wi for Monitoring on ss undertake ng es ris ratin hm ide gy th he Ev ce ent e ate alu gt Ope nti m o ati an pr ttin fyi nt str of E ng ag se to ris ng e n Se rep to RM em em en RM &e Ev ort ag alu ing en em an ag ing va to atin of m an risks ks fm lua gR op ma k m isk ter at ris by nd vel tin Ma ial e g ce ols a es ris rial sin ran tr gr nag ons De Givi ng a em po ssu con esp isk ssur ks ris A r ent ks Im risk s ance that pro ces n s on risks isio are ses dec Giving ing behalf assura nce on corr ectly Tak ment’s age the Ris eval n Man k Mana gemen uate d ing risks o t proce Manag sses s Giving assurance that the control systems are effective Accountability for risks and control HB 158—2006 Delivering assurance based on AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management
  • 70. DISCUSSION • What are the internal reporting and recording processes that your agency has in place? • What is the role that internal audit undertakes in reviewing and monitoring your agency’s risk management framework and programs?
  • 71. Reporting • Reporting is incidental to good RM, not the sole focus of it! • If you only focus on reporting, you will not motivate the required culture change • Advanced Governance Codes (e.g. LSX and ASX) require two sets of reports: – The maturity and performance of the RM framework – The risk profile and how/why it has changed
  • 72. Recording the Risk Management Process • Demonstrates process conducted properly. • Provides a record of risks. • Provides decision makers with plan for approval and implementation. • Provides accountability tool. • Facilitates monitoring and review. • Provides an audit trail. • Enables sharing and communication of information.
  • 73. And Finally!! • AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 is the natural successor to the AS/NZS 4360 Standard • Hopefully it will also dislodge COSO • It encourages ‘ERM’, but also provides for silo/project risk management • Following AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 will provide a low cost, high chance of success approach to ERM • AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 will add value and reduce risk in risk management Managing risk is about creating value out of uncertainty
  • 74. The greatest risk of all is to take no risk at all!
  • 75. The Journey Continues A journey ………. A race In pursuit of performance Building Value AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009 provides generic guidance on how to embed risk management, and introduces the concept of “positive” risk to help you on the way. C 1. Strategic Ct M O O M N M I U 2. Identify Threats T N O I R C A A 3. Analyze & T S 4. Assess E S R E E 5. Assess/ S V C S I Opportunities Risks O E N W S 7. Manage the Risk U Culture Communication L T Structure Direction Processes