Edgewater Technology Executive Event Unlocking the Value of Your Enterprise Data Maury DePalo October 1, 2008 Houston, TX

1. www.edgewater.com October 1, 2008 Predictive Analytics in Healthcare

3. Predictive Analytics: Various Approaches CLUSTERING FORECASTING MONITORING & ADVISING SIMULATION & SCENARIO PLANNING DECISION TREE  The use of current and past data, in conjunction with statistical, structural or other analytical models and methods, to determine the likelihood of certain future events Predictive methods cover the spectrum from relatively simple classification and forecasting to more advanced techniques such as simulation and advising As you move up the spectrum, the complexity of the approaches and their implementation increase

6. Class Distinction, Combined with Pathway Model Wei, et al: Cancer Cell, October 2006 GC apoptosis (cell death) rapamycin MCL1

8. Forecasting: Process Model  Structural Model: Bill of Resources Patient Seen in Emergency Dept Admit Patient: Presumptive Diagnosis: Pneumonia Discharge Monitor Care Delivery Standard Order Sets Equipment Labor Materials Facilities Nursing Orders: Respiratory Therapy: Medication Orders: Resource Demand Day 5 Day 4 Day 3 Day 2 Day 1    

9. Forecasting: Resource Demand vs. Capacity Standard Order Sets Equipment Labor Materials Facilities Nursing Orders: Respiratory Therapy: Medication Orders: Day 5 Day 4 Day 3 Day 2 Day 1    

10. Simulation: Resource Demand vs. Capacity  What if … … incidence of disease X increases 2x? … process X increases throughput 1.5x? … market share in geography X (with Y / 1000 cases) increases by Z? … we focus our service lines into centers of excellence, shifting our patient mix across our facilities within the system? Facility A Facility B Facility C

12. Implementation: System & Data Architecture Clinical Data Operations Data Financial Data External Data Data Warehouse Data Files Data Sets Parameter Management DATA PRESENTATION/ CONSUMPITON LAYER APPLICATION/ MODEL MANAGEMENT LAYER DATA STORAGE LAYER DATA INTEGRATION LAYER DATA SOURCE LAYER ODS Multi-Dimensional Data Store Integration Cleansing Data Quality Formatting Aggregation Predictive Models Test Management Model/Version Management

15. www.edgewater.com October 1, 2008 Predictive Analytics in Healthcare