Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Innovation (20) Innovation1. lsoftware development
e a n
The Fastest Learner Wins
Living with Black Swans
mary@poppendieck.com Mary Poppendieck www.poppendieck.com
2. Agenda
1. Compelling Offer
Observing
2. Immediate Connection
Questioning
3. Adoption Chain
Networking
4. Validated Assumptions
2
Experimenting
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
3. Todd Park
2010 Harvard Graduate (Economics)
Booz Allen Hamilton Consultant (Managed Care)
Athenahealth (1997)
Maternity Clinic
Health Care Records
Very successful IPO
Retirement (2007)
US Health and Human
Services CTO (2009)
2011
Artist Regina Holliday
3 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
US Federal Government CTO (2012)
4. Agenda
1. Compelling Offer
Observing
2. Immediate Connection
Questioning
3. Adoption Chain
Networking
4. Validated Assumptions
4
Experimenting
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
5. Strategic Inflection Point
Business goes on
to new heights
10x change in some
element of the business.
What worked before doesn’t work now.
The executives are the last to know.
5 August 12 Copyright©2010 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n Business
declines
6. Compelling Offer
10X Improvement in some aspect of the offer
Salesforce.com
SaaS gave a 10X reduction in installation and operating costs
Skype
Peer-to-peer IP telephony for a 10X reduction in long distance charges
Wikipedia
Open source collaboration for a 10X increase in the speed and a 100X
reduction in cost for encyclopedia development and maintenance
Dropbox
10X improvement in ease of use and safety for those who wanted to keep
multiple devices in sync.
YouTube
Cell phones gave a 10X improvement in capability to take casual videos,
6 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
YouTube gave a 10X improvement in ease of sharing those videos.
See also: http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=2732
7. Working Backward
PRESS RELEASE
Heading –
Working Backward Name the product in a way the reader (i.e. your target
customers) will understand.
Sub-Heading –
1. Write a Press Release Describe who the market for the product is and what
benefit they get. One sentence only underneath the title.
Summary –
Give a summary of the product and the benefit. Assume
the reader will not read anything else so make this good.
Problem -
Describe the problem your product solves.
Solution –
2. Write a list of FAQ’s Describe how your product elegantly solves the problem.
Quote from You –
(and answers) A quote from a spokesperson in your company.
How to Get Started –
3. Describe the Customer Describe how easy it is to get started.
Experience Customer Quote –
Provide a quote from a hypothetical customer that
describes how they experienced the benefit.
4. Write a User Manual. Closing and Call to Action –
7
http://www.allthingsdistributed.com
/2006/11/working_backwards.html
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
Wrap it up; give pointers where the reader should go next.
http://www.quora.com/What-is-Amazons-approach-to-
product-development-and-product-management
8. Exercise: Write
a Press Release
Innovation Skill: Observing
Working as a group, write a press
release for a product real or imaginary.
1. Aim the press release at
PRESS RELEASE
consumers of the product.
Title –
2. Create a tag line to quickly
Central theme (Tag line) – summarize the central theme.
Summary (10X effect) – 3. Summarize the offer in
Problem – terms of its10X effect.
Solution – 4. Center your message on a
Getting Started –
single theme that will define
what the product is and is not.
8
Call to Action –
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
9. Agenda
1. Compelling Offer
Observing
2. Immediate Connection
Questioning
3. Adoption Chain
Networking
4. Validated Assumptions
9
Experimenting
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
10. Release Cycle
6 Months
Quick & Dirty Value Stream Map:
Need a Need a
Feature Feature Design Develop Harden UAT
Release Cycle Release Cycle Release Cycle
Value-Added Time
Total Cycle Time Time
Total Cycle
Start Average Start End
Development Model:
Releases are very painful
Avoid releases!
10 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
Thanks to Kent Beck for his ideas on cadence.
11. Release Cycle
Quarterly
Hardening: 2 – 4 weeks
Early integration testing becomes essential
Typically: 2 – 4 week iterations
Code from each iteration goes to integration testing
Business issues (if software is
sold/delivered to customers):
How to price and sell releases?
Which releases to support?
Supporting multiple branches
11 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
can create a support nightmare
12. Release Cycle
Monthly
Now you need:
Hardening 3 days
Cross Functional Team
Visualization
Short Daily Meetings
SBE/TDD really working!
Works best for:
Software as a Service (SaaS)
[Any download to local machines is pushed.]
12 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
Internal Software
13. Release Cycle
Weekly/Daily/Continuous
Kanban works well
Iterations become irrelevant The team
Estimating is not very important is everyone.
No branching – Develop on the trunk
Test & deployment automation is essential
Rapid cycles of learning drive portfolio decisions
Things. Just. Work.
One or our large web-based customers
has been deploying daily for five years!
Google: gmail deploys 2X/week
13 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
What is the fastest release cycle here?
14. Immediate Connection
Bent Victor Our
Inventing on Principle
http://vimeo.com/36579366 Guiding Principle:
People should not be
told what to do.
Combining Principles:
Teams should adjust what
Bent’s Guiding Principle: they are doing based on
Creators need an what team members learn
immediate connection
with what they create. directly from their efforts.
Bret Victor invents tools that enable people to understand and
create. He has designed experimental UI concepts at Apple, interactive
data graphics for Al Gore, and musical instruments at Alesis.
14 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
15. Exercise: Draw a
Feedback Matrix
Innovation Skill: Questioning
I adjust what I do based on:
Immediate
visibility of results
1. Have everyone at the
table plot a point for a
typical development
team members.
2. Add additional points
for members from
info about results
different functions.
3. Plot the ideal point
Delayed
for team members
working on that
15
Indirect information
about consumers
August 12 l e a n
Direct connection
with consumers
Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC
compelling offer.
16. Agenda
1. Compelling Offer
Observing
2. Immediate Connection
Questioning
3. Adoption Chain
Networking
4. Validated Assumptions
16
Experimenting
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
17. The Age of the Platform
Contributor Consumer
17 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
Platform
(infrastructure and rules)
18. Adoption Chain
Innovators often forget Complementors!
3G
Music? Repair? Books?
Networks?
The first MP3 Player
The first 3G Phone Run-flat tires The first e-reader
1998
2002 Honda Odyssey 2005 2006
18 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
19. Cost vs. Relative Benefit
Adopters see value differently.
Innovator’s Perspective Adopter’s Perspective
Innovator
++
Relative ++
Benefit
Product Distributor
+
Cost ++
Product Cost
+ Additional Retailer -
Costs/Risks
Consumer
++
+++
New New Old
This adoption chain
Product Product Product
will not work!
Benefit Benefit Benefit
If any organization on the adoption chain perceives
19
a negative value, the adoption chain is broken.
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n The Wide Lens, by Ron Adner
20. Exercise: Evaluate
the Adoption Chain
Innovation Skill: Networking
You would like to develop a product with compelling value
and provide immediate connection between the product
creators and consumers. In order to achieve this, you need Adoption Chain
the cooperation of organizations within and outside of you
Party 1
++
company that are not part of your immediate team. ++
1. Make a list of the parties who must change the way they
Party 2 +
do things in order for the improvement to be successful.
2. Look at the benefits to be gained and the cost of change Party 3 -
from the perspective of each party.
Party 4 ++
3. Are there parties where the cost outweighs the benefit? +++
4. What can be done to change the equation so the benefits
20
are greater than the cost for that party?
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
21. Agenda
1. Compelling Offer
Observing
2. Immediate Connection
Questioning
3. Adoption Chain
Networking
4. Validated Assumptions
21
Experimenting
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
22. Validated Assumptions
Only a few large companies have been able to sustain growth
over time by coming up with successful new disruptive
businesses. These companies share a common practice: They
have systems in place that encourage small, cross-functional
employee teams to conduct frugal experiments. Scott Cook, Intuit
Validated Assumptions:
1. List assumptions that must be true in order for the product to succeed.
a) Which ones are most important?
2. Devise experiments to determine whether critical assumptions are true.
a) Create a measurable hypotheses that will demonstrate clear cause and effect.
b) Run many, quick experiments to test the hypotheses.
Lean Startup:
1. Start with a Business Success Model
a) Success metrics which demonstrate clear cause and effect.
2. Establish a baseline – with a Minimum Viable Product
l e a n
3. Target every initiative at improving a success metric
4. Do not add capabilities without validation (eg. split test)
22 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC
23. Experimental Approach
Site visitors are randomly
A assigned to see version A or B B Don’t Miss this excellent paper:
Online Experimentation at Microsoft
by Kohavi , Crook, & Longbotham
Presented at KDD 2009
(Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining)
http://exp-platform.com/expMicrosoft.aspx
14.5% Conversion B is better than A 18.6% Conversion
Amazon.com Case Study 1. Most of the time the guess about how customers
Amazon’s Greg Linden created a prototype will behave will be wrong – even for experts!
which gave personalized recommendations
based on items in the shopping cart. The feature 2. Test early – don’t waste a lot of time on in-
was opposed by a marketing SVP who told Greg depth analysis or planning the perfect design.
to stop, but Greg created a test anyway. He was
3. Test often – most experiments don’t tell much.
allowed to pushed it live. The feature ‘won’ by
such a wide margin that it was immediately 4. A failed experiment is not a failure – it’s a
l e a n
adopted, increasing sales by an estimated 3%. learning opportunity. The only failures are failure
http://glinden.blogspot.com/2006/
04/early-amazon-shopping-cart.html to learn or failing to conduct a good experiment.
23 August 12 Copyrignt©2011 Poppendieck.LLC
24. Why?
Impact Maps
Why? Who? Who?
Who?
How? How? How?
What?
What? What?
Connections
=Assumptions
24 August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n Images and ideas from:
Impact Mapping Handbook
by Gojko Adzic – Available soon
Check out:www.impactmapping.org
25. Exercise: Find and
Validate Assumptions
Innovation Skill: Experimenting
Validate assumptions for your compelling offer.
1. Draw an Impact Map.
Impact
a) Start with the goal – make it measurable.
Map
b) Who needs to be involved?
c) How will they contribute? Why?
d) What needs to be done to support each contribution? Who?
2. List the assumptions connect each node on the map. How?
3. Prioritize the assumptions; select the top two. What?
4. How will you measure these two assumptions? Assump-
tions?
5.
25
Devise an experiment to validate each assumption.
August 12 Copyright©2012 Poppendieck.LLC l e a n
26. lsoftware development
e a n
Thank You!
More Information: www.poppendieck.com
mary@poppendieck.com Mary Poppendieck www.poppendieck.com