1. Q2 2012 | RETAIL
GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
RETAIL TRENDS REPORT
Methodical Growth
COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW
The Columbus retail market returned to positive growth with 110,000 square feet adding to the recent
trend that eight of the last nine quarters that have seen positive absorption. The largest leases were
Habitat For Humanity leasing 25,000 square feet at 166 Wilson Road in the Southwest submarket,
and TJ Maxx leasing 25,000 at 911 Central Parkway in Licking County.
MARKET INDICATORS FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS
• The only investment sale was The Shops at Secur-it Personal Storage building downtown,
Q2 Q3
Avery Place in Dublin, which sold for $5 which will become a 70-unit apartment, and
2012 2012*
million. the Fireproof Building in the Short North
• Multifamily construction is booming in the which will house 58 units when completed.
VACANCY
CBD and nearby portions of other submarkets. These residential moves will certainly increase
NET ABSORPTION The former Wonder Bread Factory is being the need for retail in the CBD.
converted into 56 apartments. The Aston • Construction at Cabela’s, a large outdoor
CONSTRUCTION —
Place apartment complex at the corner of retailer, is currently underway with an
RENTAL RATES — — West Third and Dennison Avenues began a 80,000-square-foot store that will employ 175
59-unit project, and Kaufman Development full- and part-time employees. It is expected to
*Projected change to following quarter
LLC will begin a five-story, 174-apartment be completed by end of the year. Construction
project on Goodale Street along the Olentangy of the space comes on the back of the The
River. Also under development is the former Great Indoors closing at Polaris.
RENTAL RATES
BIG BOX SURGE VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONS The average asking rental
Asking Rates
1,200,000 14.0% rates for centers
$16.00
1,000,000 decreased. Anchored
12.0%
Completions and Absorptions
$14.00 800,000 strip and neighborhood
600,000 10.0% spaces were flat, while
$12.00
big box space has
Vacancy Rate
400,000 8.0%
$10.00
200,000
continued to show rates
6.0% increasing.
$8.00 ‐
(200,000) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 4.0%
$6.00 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12
(400,000)
2.0%
$4.00 (600,000)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 (800,000) 0.0%
Anchored Strip Neighborhood Community Big Box Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate
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2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q2 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
CONSTRUCTION exactly happened to the market behind the
Delaware County
A 30,000-square-foot community center at absorption number. The Market Activity Volume
Union
County 4020-4060 Powell Road, called Liberty Crossing, was more than 475,000 square feet. This is
North / is no longer under construction. This Northwest slightly below the average level of migration,
Licking
Northwest
Northeast
County project was recently completed. meaning that retailers generally held steady
with few closings.
Menards is opening their second location in
Madison CBD
Columbus next month at 6810 East Broad The typical tenants currently in the market are
County
Southeast Street in the Northeast submarket. The big box restaurants by a significant percentage. Fast
Southwest
retail will be 180,000 square feet when food or fast casual restaurants are being
Fairfield
County
completed. Menards recently purchased 40 aggressive. Other types in the market include
Pickaway County acres along U.S. 23 in Lewis Center for planned discount oriented tenants, auto parts, frozen
future development. yogurt, and fitness concepts
The Columbus retail market includes 11
suburban submarkets and the Central
Tenants are finding TI allowance to be the
Waggenbrenner Development Inc.’s Commons at
Business District. A total inventory of 55 biggest hurdle. Landlords are seeing
Clark Hall has broken ground on their 22,000
million square feet of space with only 1 concessions to tenants as the biggest hurdle,
million of that space in the CBD. square foot mixed-use, retail space. Chipotle
because the retail leasing environment is so
Mexican Grill, Panera Bread, Rusty Bucket
competitive. Class A opportunities are
Restaurant and AT&T Mobile have all signed to
especially competitive. Another challenge is the
lease space when it opens in October 2012.
gap in asking rates and rates sought for lease
opportunities in Class B and C shopping
MARKET ACTIVITY centers. Landlords are having difficultly finding
Market Activity Volume is the sum of the
good credit tenants in Class B and C centers.
absolute value of each absorption change in the
market and it tells us a little more about what
UPDATE New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates
SALES ACTIVITY
SALES
PROPERTY ADDRESS DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET
1500 Gemini Place 4/27/2012 $10,150,000 151,000 Polaris CW LLC Costco Wholesle Corp $67.22 Big Box Northeast
3700 High Street 6/28/2012 $2,800,000 145,000 BEF Management, Inc. Electronic Classroom of $19.31 Other Southeast
Tomorrow
2682 Westerville Road 4/30/2012 $650,000 22,084 James & Rebecca 786 R & N LLC $29.43 Conv/Strip Center Northeast
Oberland
303 Front Street 6/11/2012 1,800,000 21,400 North Bay Real Estate 303 S Front Street LLC $84.11 Restaurant Central
1756 Brice Road 5/14/2012 $350,000 18,660 Century City LP Impala Capital LLC $18.76 Conv/Strip Center Southeast
4000 Sullivant Avenue 4/2/2012 $1,065,000 15,000 Frazier Development First Impressions Collision $71.00 Automotive Southwest
6695-6755 Avery Muirfield 5/12/2012 5,000,000 13,801 Daimler Group Pmdm-Avery LLC - Strip Northwest
Drive
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF TOTAL SIZE LESSEE ASKING PRICE TYPE SUBMARKET
166 Wilson Road 25,440 633,013 Habitat for Humanity $4.00 Power Center Southwest
911 Central Parkway 25,000 322,369 TJ Maxx $8.00 Power Center Licking
300 Hamilton Road 9,981 176,610 Affordable Uniforms $14.00 Anchored Strip Center Northeast
3703 Broad Street 9,818 511,575 Royal Garden Buffet $10.00 Power Center Southeast
1131 Columbus Pike 8,250 73,654 Aaron Rents $10.00 Community Center North Delaware
8603 Sancus Boulevard 7,500 60,274 Tilted Kilt $17.00 Neighborhood Center Northeast
16 Main Street 7,000 7,000 Coffee shop $2,000.00 Restaurant Central
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q2 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
UPDATE Market Comparisons
RETAIL MARKET
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
CBD 1,105,385 51,399 4.6 - 1,200 - - $12.00 -
FAIRFIELD 4,144,963 441,739 10.7 (12,156) 54,664 - - $15.59 $11.81
LICKING 4,000,073 342,074 8.6 37,226 35,031 - - $13.00 $11.84
MADISON 214,406 25,112 11.7 1,358 (15,827) - - - -
NORTH DELAWARE 2,235,958 148,236 6.6 7,450 (1,852) 30,000 - - $13.61
NORTHEAST 16,320,781 1,032,369 6.3 75,667 64,890 202,789 - $14.05 $11.57
NORTHWEST 13,258,413 1,124,233 8.5 (18,984) (36,822) 120,000 - $12.65 $18.78
PICKAWAY 741,829 7,737 1.0 (1,587) (1,587) - - $8.50 $14.00
SOUTHEAST 10,054,743 1,667,264 16.6 (11,716) (104,816) - - $9.03 $11.71
SOUTHWEST 7,050,411 1,627,044 23.1 33,017 9,641 - - $10.15 $7.63
UNION 1,161,503 54,939 4.7 - (9,000) - - - $16.00
TOTALS 60,288,465 6,522,146 10.8 110,275 (4,478) 352,789 - $12.35 $12.03
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
PROPERTY TYPE Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions (NNN)
ANCHORED STRIP 11,912,558 1,618,470 13.6 26,325 51,229 - - $11.22
BIG BOX 7,645,635 984,367 12.9 - (15,241) 260,000 - $6.81
CONV/STRIP CENTER 4,115,704 609,503 14.8 5,043 (62,283) - - $10.33
FREESTANDING 3,534,319 305,630 8.6 14,523 31,828 22,789 - $11.76
REGIONAL CENTER 4,106,470 366,875 8.9 1,430 2,313 - - $10.22
STRIP 5,480,508 679,041 12.4 62,537 28,230 70,000 - $12.35
SUPER REGIONAL CENTER 15,687,684 1,197,990 7.6 417 (8,434) - - $12.03
URBAN RETAIL 663,236 136,200 20.5 - - - - -
COMMUNITY 133,012 33,320 25.1 - (33,320) - - $6.00
NEIGHBORHOOD 6,489,090 590,750 9.1 - - - - -
POWER 520,249 - 0.0 - 1,200 - - -
GRAND TOTAL 60,288,465 6,522,146 10.8 110,275 (4,478) 352,789 - $11.10
QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
Q1, 2012 60,288,465 6,632,421 11.0 (112,378) (112,378) 280,000 - $10.80 $11.07
Q4, 2011 60,288,465 6,523,775 10.8 187,621 489,194 70,000 27,000 $11.66 $12.93
Q3, 2011 60,261,465 6,671,088 11.1 38,783 298,933 27,000 158,302 $11.80 $12.45
Q2, 2011 60,127,163 6,729,871 11.4 59,572 260,790 185,302 495,647 $12.88 $13.58
MINIMUM WAGE
The minimum wage increased across
Ohio by $.30 to $7.70, effective
January 1, 2012. The minimum wage
for tipped employees will climb 15
cents to $3.85 an hour. The rise is a
part of a scheduled increase, tied to
consumer prices.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q2 2012 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
CBD
The Central Business District (CBD) was flat in FUNDAMENTALS
absorption, but activity is sure to increase in the Three sources are helpful when gauging retail 522 offices in
coming quarters as more multi-family
construction projects begin and are completed.
consumer activity: the consumer confidence
index; a weekly poll conducted by Gallup; the
62 countries on
Projects that were announced or began in June Beige Book produced by the Federal Reserve 6 continents
and July 2012, total 409 new units near the Bank semi-quarterly.
CBD. United States: 147
Canada: 37
The consumer confidence index is produced by
Latin America: 19
NORTH The Conference Board and is a survey of how Asia Pacific: 201
The north submarkets include Northwest, confident consumers are in the current economic EMEA: 118
Northeast, and North Delaware. conditions by their spending and saving habits.
• $1.8 billion in annual revenue
In June, the index was 62.0, decreasing 240
• 1.25 billion square feet under
The Northwest submarket saw 18,000 square basis points from 64.4 in May 2012. In January,
management
feet of negative absorption from a large vacancy the index was at 61.1. As a guide, the index was
• Over 12,300 professionals
by Bed, Bath and Beyond from 3610 Dublin 112.5 in July 2007, six months before beginning
Granville Road. The Easton Town Center co- of the recession.
developers Steiner + Associates and The GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
Georgetown Co. have announced that they will Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM
be adding more than 50,000 square feet of new average dollar amount Americans report CEO | Principal | Columbus
Two Miranova Place
tenants this year and renovating more than spending or charging on a daily basis, not
Suite 900
150,000 square feet of existing space. Easton counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, Columbus, Ohio, 43215
will also see an expansion in parking space with or normal household bills. Over the three month TEL +1 614 410 5612
an increase of 600 spaces, which will be period between April and June, the 14-day
completed in 2013. rolling average rose slightly from $76 to $65
with a high of $77 June. Leslie Hobbs
Director of Marketing Ohio
North-Delaware saw 7,500 square feet of
Two Miranova Place
positive absorption with Aaron Rents and Hertz The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on Suite 900
Rent A Car combining for more than 8,000 consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige Columbus, Ohio, 43215
square feet of absorption at 1131 Columbus Pike. Book. The data for these reports comes from TEL +1 614 410 5640
qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth
The Northeast submarket saw more than 75,000 district, which includes Columbus. In June,
square feet of positive absorption. Leases at 300 retailers reported that sales held steady on a Jonathan Schuen
Research Analyst
Hamilton Road, 8589 Columbus Pike and 8603 month-over-month basis, but increased by mid-
Two Miranova Place
Sancus Boulevard combined for nearly 60,000 single digits relative to year-ago levels. Retailers Suite 900
square feet of the Northeast’s absorption. then anticipated that revenues during their next Columbus, Ohio, 43215
fiscal quarter would be above prior-year levels, TEL +1 614 437 4495
SOUTH mainly in the mid-single digits. Retailers cited
The southern submarkets are Southeast and upward pressure on vendor costs, but were
Southwest. In the Southeast, Habitat for reluctant to pass through rising costs to
Humanity leased 25,000 square feet at 166 consumers. Capital spending for the year
Wilson Road. remained on target and monies would be used
largely for technology enhancements, distribution This document/email has been prepared by Colliers
International for advertising purposes. Colliers
EAST facilities, and store remodeling. International statistics and data are audited annually and
may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly
The eastern submarkets are Licking and Fairfield In July, the reserve bank reported that retailers
and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus
Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, CoStar, Chain Store
Counties. Fairfield lost 12,000 square feet of reported little change in sales during May on a Age, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
space from numerous leases. The Licking month-over-month basis, but the sales were
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gallup and the Cleveland
Federal Reserve.
submarket gained 37,000 square feet from TJ higher relative to year-ago levels. Increases in
Maxx and Site Tech leases at 911 Central vendor prices were attributed to higher costs for
Parkway, the Cross Creek Shopping Center. off-shore labor. Inventories continued to rise
modestly, but they were described as
WEST manageable. Capital spending for the year
The western submarkets include Union and remains on target. No hiring is anticipated,
Madison counties. The Madison and Union except at new stores, and wage pressures are
submarkets showed marginal change. contained.
Accelerating success.
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