Presentation by Peter Craufurd, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011

1. Climate change impacts on adaptive capacity and livelihoods Peter Craufurd

2. DETERMINANTS External Internal FARMING SYSTEM Outputs MARKETS Savings and Investment Home Consumption Sales POLICIES INSTITUTIONS Consumption Decisions INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Crops Trees Animals Fish Household Processing Off-farm Work External Inputs Production Decisions ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE RESOURCES Natural Physical Financial Human Social Land and water Climate Biodiversity HouseHold (HH) Farming system Impact of climate variability & change on some components 5 ‘capitals’ Dixon et al. Farming Systems

3. Adaptive capacity & sustainable livelihoods Adaptive capacity is the behaviouralchange HHs are able to make using resources at their disposal HH resources can be assessed by sustainable livelihoods framework: ‘5 capitals’ – natural, social, human, physical, financial Many studies suggest adaptive capacity in relation to climate variability and change most often associated with values of social & human capital e.g. training, education, access to information, self-help groups rather than with technology (e.g. natural or physical capital), and that assessments of vulnerability based only on bioeconomic criteria may give false impression

4. Adaptation strategies and challenges Adaptation strategies have to be technically feasableand acceptable to HHs: more profitable, less risky, easy to adopt Fit into/be compatible with their livelihood strategy Challenges To evolve modelling from impacts on components to impacts on systems (at several scales?) To understand (& model ?)livelihood strategies & resource allocation decisions To integrate these to better determine adaptation options (nb not just technology) for testing with modeling-based scenario analyses