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Transboundary flood risk management
1.
Cross-boundary flood risk The
Rhine basin Nijmegen 20 september 2012 Aline te Linde
2.
Titel CV Aline te
Linde 1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam MSc hydrology 2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics Integrated Water Management 2008 – 2012 Deltares Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis 2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam PhD - 2011 2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers Advisory group Water © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 2
3.
Titel
http://www.ubvu.vu.nl © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 3
4.
Titel © Twynstra Gudde
| Deltares 20-9-2012 4
5.
Titel © Twynstra Gudde
| Deltares 20-9-2012 5
6.
Titel © Twynstra Gudde
| Deltares 20-9-2012 6
7.
Titel © Twynstra Gudde
| Deltares 20-9-2012 7
8.
Titel Water manager has
four questions 1. How often does this happen? 2. What is the expected damage? 3. Does this change in the future? 4. Which measures can I take? Flood risk = probabiliy x damage Scenarios – Climate change – Socio-economic / land use © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 8
9.
Titel Titel Text
Rhine River basin length: 1320 km surface area: 185.000 km2 shipping > 200 t/year 7 countries 58 million inhabitants 11 million in flood prone areas © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 9
10.
Titel Design discharge Lobith ©
Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 10 19 maart 2013
11.
Titel Land use
Water depth Potential damage Text © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 11
12.
Titel Titel Text
Risk = probability x damage © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 12
13.
Titel Titel Text
Risk = probability x damage © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 13
14.
Titel Titel Text
Increase flood risk entire River basin: 54 – 230% in 2030 (reference = 2000) © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 14
15.
Titel Cross-boundary floods © Twynstra
Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 15
16.
Titel 1926 © Twynstra
Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 16
17.
Titel Cross-boundary low flows NL
= most downstream country Alpine water towers Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 17
18.
Titel Cross-boundary approach EU legislation
for all countries – EU Water Framework Directive (2000) commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015 – EU Floods Directive (2007) “Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.” Obviously relevant for downstream countries However, © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 18
19.
Titel The Dutch Delta
Programme “The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future) is to protect our country against high water and keep our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.” http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/ Quite revolutionary: – Integrated plan (combine functions and scales) – Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster – Long-term planning © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 19
20.
Titel Delta Programme – 3
Generic Programmes • Safety • Fresh water • New urban developments and restructuring – 6 Area-based sub-programmes – Delta Commissioner and small staff – 5 Delta Decisions in 2015 – Delta Law – Delta Fund – 2050 en 2100 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 20
21.
Titel Scope is national Rhine
and Meuse models start at the Dutch border – Water safety – Low flow / drought analysis Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime Rhine and Meuse (models do include whole basin) Possibility of cross-boundary flooding – not taken into account Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 21
22.
Titel Conclusion I am puzzled
by the national scope of the Delta Programme Strong belief in the design discharge, ignoring uncertainties, instead of debating how to deal with uncertainty in extreme discharge estimates (probability and volume) Ignor © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 22
23.
Titel Aline te Linde aln@tg.nl www.twynstragudde.nl www.deltares.nl www.ivm.vu.nl Alle
intellectuele eigendomsrechten met betrekking tot deze presentatie berusten bij Twynstra Gudde. Niets uit deze presentatie mag worden verveelvoudigd of openbaar gemaakt zonder schriftelijke toestemming van Twynstra Gudde. © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 23
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