This presentation is supplemental to the 2040 Socioeconomic Study completed by Transport Studio at the request of the Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization. This was a special presentation to the Greater Lowndes Planning Commission. More information is on our website at www.sgrc.us/transportation.
3. Why do you need socioeconomic data?
• Planning for the future
• The need for infrastructure improvements
• The need for services
• Federal and State regulations
• MPO planning process
• Qualified local government
• State legislation has greatly reduced comprehensive planning
requirements
•
•
•
•
Data collection not required/unspecified
Land use element required for communities with zoning
VLMPO LRTP serves as transportation element
Valdosta is only city required to have housing element
4. What kind of data?
• Population, housing, and
employment
• Base and existing year data
• 2010 base year
• Today’s updates
• 2040 horizon year projections
• Interim year projections
5. Planning Data
Transportation
Comprehensive planning
• Population and households
• Housing
• Gender
• Age
• Race
• Educational attainment
• Labor force
• Income
• Employment
•
•
•
•
Service
Retail
Manufacturing
Wholesale
• Student enrollment
6. How? Data Collection and Projection Process
• Base year data
• Determine horizon year
control totals
• Distribute growth
• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs
• Census tracts
• Census block groups
• Verify and revise
• Develop interim year data
9. Major Assumptions
• Projections based on historic change
• DCA used to provide projections based on 1980 to 2000 Census data
• DCA projections assumed variables are independent of each other
• Transport Studio developed new projections
• Demographic characteristics will follow historic trend
• Based on distribution in population
• For example, racial composition
• Based on share of all households
• For example, housing types
• Household and employment growth will follow population growth
trend
• Ratio of jobs to housing in region
• Kinds of jobs in region
17. Land already
developed -ornot suitable for
development
Future
population and
employment
distribution
Land suitable for
development
Developable
land by Growth
Area and other
parameters
18. Distribute Growth
to
Zones, Tracts, Block
Groups
A. Growth Areas within
zone boundary
B. Suitable and
available for
development
C. Developable acres
within each Growth
Area are assigned
jobs or housing
D. Developable acres
with access to water
or sewer service
may be assigned
jobs or housing
A
D
B
C
25. Findings
• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040
• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to
water or sewer service
• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service
based on zoning
• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by
2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs
26. Recommendations
• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries
• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable
• Adjust zone boundaries as needed
• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)
• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model
• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning
process
• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers
27. Thank you
Corey Hull, AICP
229-333-5277
chull@sgrc.us
Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP
912-677-0430
whitney@transportstudio.net
Notas do Editor
State regulations have greatly reduced planning requirements
We collected projections from various sources and developed our own based on Census data
For example, the percent of Caucasians will follow the historic change over time to 2040, rather than the Caucasian population growing over time without regard to the total population growth
Multi race was not a choice before 2010.As locals develop their plans, this data may inform policies. White alone will be a numeric minority after 2025.