2014 December GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through December 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com
Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Completions
IPEDS
Employment
BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates
Gray Research
Industry Inquiries
GrayReports
Demographics
US Census
Job Postings
WANTED Analytics
Students Programs StrategyLocations
 Demographic
priorities
 Geo-priorities
 Market share
 City selection
 Location selection
 Relocation analysis
 Consolidation
 Program selection
 Program development
 Curriculum enhancement
 Market reports
 Business strategy
 Strategy implementation
 Pricing
 Outcome improvement
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Education Institutions and Investors
Program Pricing:
Coming in 2015

GRAY
What is GrayReports?
GrayReports provides information on demand trends in higher education.
 Overall industry trends, which we will review today.
 A subscription service, that provides our paid subscribers with:
─ Customized monthly reports for their specific programs and markets
─ On-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets
Over 35 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 740,000 new inquiries in December 2014
Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
1. In December, inquiries and conversions rose month-over-month.
2. But, year-over-year...
1. Inquiries are down, especially for on-line
2. Conversion rates are up, slightly
3. Conversions are down, especially for on-line
4. Cost-per-conversion is holding steady
3. Average prices for pay-per-lead inquiries dropped
4. The largest programs and markets continue to lose inquiry volume
5. The market is bifurcating
- Struggling institutions dropped over 25%
- Sustainers were down just 7%

GRAY
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Nursing: Stress of the New NCLEX-RN
5. Summary

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiries
December ended a three-month decline in inquiries, even though year-over-year volume dropped 20%.
 2014 inquiry volumes finished 12% behind 2013 levels.
 December’s 20% drop was significantly better than November’s 34% year-over-year decline.
-20% YoY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2013 2014

GRAY
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
3.0%
2.7%
3.1%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates
2013 2014
1.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.1%
3.4%
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Conversion rates are up year-over-year through October—and appear to be gaining momentum.
 October’s conversion rate is on pace to set a record.
 November and December are off to a good start and may exceed 2013.
Immature Months1
3.1%
3.4%
2.0%
3.1%
3.6%

GRAY
Inquiry Conversions
However, rising conversion rates will probably not offset the decline in inquiry volume in Q4.
 Through July, conversion rose, despite the decline in inquiries.
 Since then, year-over-year conversions have fallen—Q4 seems unlikely to reach 2013 levels.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Education Industry Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2013 2014
Immature Months1

GRAY
Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries
Average external inquiry prices dropped 6% ($2.80) in December, still 6% above year-ago levels.
 $43.93 is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries for all of 2014—almost $3.51 higher than 2013.
─ $40.42 was the average for 2013.
─ $40.36 was the average for 2012.
 December prices are below-average for the first time since June.
$42.13 $42.24 $42.13
$42.87
$41.59
$44.97 $44.67 $44.86
$46.15 $46.44 $45.94
$43.14
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Average Price per Pay-per-Lead Inquiry
2014 2013
Note: Inquiry price is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries.

GRAY
Average Cost Per Converted Inquiry
Through October, cost-per-converted inquiry averaged $1,296, about $60 (5%) below 2013.
 March was the lowest month in 2014.
 October is already below last year and will likely fall further.
 As they mature, November and December are likely to fall in line with prior months.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2013 1,371.80 1,526.27 1,330.34 1,391.91 1,381.35 1,139.03 1,271.89 1,330.73 1,463.54 1,415.03 1,387.88 1,386.10
2014 1,253.63 1,357.47 1,177.94 1,235.26 1,193.39 1,301.43 1,226.81 1,439.29 1,484.41 1,377.65 2,300.37 2,677.11
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000 Cost Per Converted Inquiry
Immature Months

GRAY
Agenda
5. Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
2013
2014
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for on-line programs rose 28% from November to December, but remained 31% behind 2013.
 For all of 2014, inquiry volumes for on-line programs fell 26% below 2013.
 For the first time since August, month-over-month inquiry volume rose in December.
-31% YOY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
Conversions for on-line programs fell substantially below 2013.
 Overall inquiry conversions in 2014 fell 26% behind 2013 levels.
 Volumes have been dropping since July.
 December was slightly better than November, but both are unlikely to reach 2013 levels.
2012
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
2013 2014
Immature Months1

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
In December, inquiries for on-ground programs only trailed 2013 by 6%.
 For the full year, 2014 matched 2013 inquiry volumes for on-ground programs.
 For the first 6 months of 2014, inquiry volumes were 26% ahead of year-ago levels.
 However, the last four months all fell behind 2013.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
2013 2014
-6%
YOY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
For mature months, conversions for on-ground programs are meeting or exceeding last year.
 November looks weak, but has two months to mature.
 December is off to a reasonable start – it may reach last year’s levels.
2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
2013 2014
Immature Months1

GRAY
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Conversions of External Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2013 2014
Conversions of External Inquiries
Since July, conversions of external inquiries have been weaker than last year.
 August and September finished over 10% behind last year.
 October, November and December are immature, but seem likely to end behind 2013.
Immature Months

GRAY
Conversions of Internal Inquiries
Through September, conversions of internal inquiries have been slightly behind 2013.
 Results for November and December conversions are immature, but seem quite weak.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Conversions of Internal Inquiries
2013 2014
Immature Months

GRAY
Agenda
5. Summary

GRAY
Largest Programs: December Growth
Four of the five largest programs fell in December; only Health Care Administration grew 5%.
 Inquiries for four of the five largest programs declined over 20%.
 Medical Assisting, Business Administration, and Accounting dropped approximately 25%.
 Criminal Justice struggled, dropping over 70% for the third consecutive month.
-19%
6%
15%
-2%
-13%
5%
-24% -24% -25%
-80%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Health Care
Admin/Management
Medical Assisting Business Admin and
Management
Accounting Criminal Justice/Police
Science
Year-over-year Change in December Inquiries
Five Largest Programs
2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

GRAY
Top 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in December
Welding Tech was the fastest growing program for the fourth consecutive month.
 In December, there were three new members on the list of the 5 fastest growing programs:
─ Computer Systems Networking
─ Telecommunications
─ Psychology
-24%
40%
654%
-14% -10%
400%
146%
82%
31% 29%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Welding Tech Electrical, Electronic, and
Comm. Tech
Health
Information/Medical
Records Admin
Computer Systems
Networking and
Telecommunications.
Psychology
Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries
Five Fastest-Growing Programs
1. Includes only the top 75 programs (based on inquiry volume since January 2012)

GRAY
Largest Cities for Inquiries
The five largest cities were all down at least 20%.
 Atlanta fared the best, with a 19% decline over year-ago levels.
-5%
0%
-15%
19%
-12%
-19% -20%
-23% -24%
-29%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Atlanta Philadelphia Los Angeles New York Chicago
Top Five Cities for Inquiries
Series1 Series2
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
This month, all five of the fastest-growing cities had positive growth.
 San Diego, CA, the fastest growing city from November, drops off the list, replaced by Fresno, CA
 Richmond, VA, Virginia Beach, VA, and Oklahoma City, OK join the fastest-growing cities.
 San Antonio returned to the top five, with 1% growth.
1%
16%
-11%
8%
-5%
13% 12%
2%
1% 0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Fresno, CA Oklahoma City, OK Virginia Beach, VA San Antonio, TX Richmond, VA
Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

GRAY
Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume
Strugglers (includes institutions closing multiple campuses) declined 27% in December, Sustainers fell 7%.
-12%
-15% -15%
-12%
0%
-3%
-13%
-16%
-31%
-44% -46%
-27%
47% 44%
28%
10% 9% 7%
-6%
-13%
-7% -7%
-11%
-7%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Sustainers vs. Strugglers
Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes
Sustainers
Strugglers

GRAY
Decline in Inquiry Volumes by Category
Inquiry volumes fell sharply for Incomplete Inquiries, Online, Associate’s, and External (PPI).
 Internal inquiries replaced graduate degrees as the top performing category.
 Incomplete inquiries replaced online inquiries as the worst performing category.
-12%
-13%
-13%
-18%
-20%
-24%
-29%
-33%
-38%
-40%
-42%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Internal
Master's
Doctorate
Ground
Certificate
Bachelor's
Unknown Modality
External
Unknown Degree
Associate's
Online
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries
2013 vs. 2014 (October – December)
Monthly Average

GRAY
Agenda
5. Summary

GRAY
Nursing and the New NCLEX-RN
The nursing licensing exam has shifted from a disease-based to a conceptual test—lowering pass rates.
 The new NCLEX-RN has lowered pass rates across the country.
 To rebound, schools need to fundamentally restructure their programs to teach concepts, not diseases.
82% 83%
85% 86%
74%
76%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Jan-Mar
2013
Apr-Dec
2014
Jan-Sep
NCLEX-RN Pass Rates
For U.S.-Educated Test-Takers
New Exam

GRAY
Turning Around Pass Rates
NCLEX results can be turned around—with a concerted effort and relevant expertise.
68% 67% 68%
94%
81%
83%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Campus A Campus B Campus C
Results Achieved with Gray’s Approach
NCLEX-RN Pass Rates
First Year of New NCLEX After Fix

GRAY
Agenda
5. Summary

GRAY
Key Findings
 The mix of inquiries is shifting to higher quality sources:
- Internal
- On-ground
- Healthy schools
 Trades are leading growth: welding, electrical, health information, computer networking
 There are tremendous variations by city, program, and modality
- Three of the five fastest growing cities are new to the list in December
- Two of the five fastest-growing programs were also new arrivals
 You need a custom view that reflects the markets in which you compete.
 Many nursing schools need to overhaul their programs to improve NCLEX pass

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates Webinars
GrayReports: February Webinar
(January Results)
Friday, February 20, 1:00 p.m. Eastern time
Please join us next month!

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-401-7662
Today’s Presenter: Bob Atkins, Partner at Gray Associates

2014 December GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (20)

Destaque

Destaque (15)

Semelhante a 2014 December GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

Semelhante a 2014 December GrayReports - Student Demand Trends (18)

Mais de Gray Associates, Inc

Mais de Gray Associates, Inc (15)

Último

Último (20)

2014 December GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

Notas do Editor