This study was presented during the conference ““Production and Carbon Dynamics in Sustainable Agricultural and Forest Systems in Africa” held in September, 2010.

1. Virgin tropical forests, loathed plantations and everything in-between:
Not seeing the alternatives for the heat and the smoke?
Dpt of Forest Ecology and Management, SLU, Tropical Forestry Group – Professor Anders Malmer
ABSTRACT: The development and future of tropical forest cover and its quality is discussed, from the perspective of REDD. Focus in the
discussion is often on conserving natural forests as opposed to deforestation or conversion to (forest) plantations that contain less carbon.
However, most forests are already affected by man or degraded to various extents and evidence is accumulating that just conserving or
leaving them often leads to continued degradation in carbon storage, biodiversity, water conservation and other environmental services.
The potential width of the concept of REDD is both its strength and its Achilles’ heel. Few things are more generalised than the problems of
managing and conserving tropical forests. In contrast, the reality of the nature, status and role of forests and their place in national
development is extremely varied and country-specific. This presentation purports that conservation of virgin forests is not the largest
potential for REDD, but rather a broad range of forests used and affected in various ways. Conserved forest is, and will be, very vulnerable,
except in well organised societies. On the other hand, improved management of more abundant secondary or degraded forests will increase
their value against deforestation for other uses and improve their carbon content, water conservation, biodiversity etc. With examples and
data from South America and Asia, explanation is given to recent findings that conserved tropical forests in the Amazon have a larger
incidence of fire and continued degradation than other types of forest. Examples of the different development and forest management
strategies in the various Brazilian states of the Amazon are also given.
It is concluded that societal readiness (socioeconomic setting which favours investments by local people or other land owners in forests) is
possibly the first criteria for expanding and improving forest sectors, but a “general policy disbelief” in sustainable forest management needs
to change. In addition, there is a need for more technical research and development in forest restoration and management of “intermediate
man made production forests” and to build understanding of the status in-between the perfect natural forest and the perfect industrial
forest plantation.
***
DISCUSSION: focused around the increasing attention finally being given to the role of forests now, after considerable time in the policy
wilderness.

2. Virgin tropical forests, loathed plantations
and everything in-between;
Not seeing the alternatives for the heat and the smoke?
Swedish University of Agricultural Science
Department of Forest Ecology and Management
Tropical Forestry Group – Professor Anders Malmer

3. What about the title - Contents
• Current and future land use change –
tropical forest focus
• Vulnerable conservation and more
secure forests under use?
• Fire and the degradation process
• Virgin forests or devastation –
defenitions, common language and
policy
• Examples of strategies in the Amazon
?

4. Today it is the forest landscapes in the tropical
and near-tropical zone that is changing in
peoples strive for a better life

5. Looking ahead for land-use:
• Now we are >6 billion on the planet, we will be another 3
billion by 2050 – these will mainy live in cities in the
tropics?
• Temperature will (only?) increase with 2 degr until 2050?
• Much more food needed
• Much more biofuels needed
 Climate insecurity and very high demand for optimal
production in agriculture & forestry

6. Stable or % of changing forest
cover can be different things in
different countries and have
very varied background

7. Latest FRA concentrating on absolute deforestation, also
implying where decreased deforestation would be most
significant in a global perspective
FAO Forest Resource Assessment 2010

8. ...and forest cover change is not a globally homogenous process!

9. Also Sweden has seen long periods of
deforestation and degrading soils
Report by
Carl von Linné 1749

10. Forest cover in province of Halland 1650 – 1920 (Carl Malmström, 1939)
C:a 1650 C:a 1700 C:a 1850 C:a 1920
grazing broadleafed forest coniferous forest
& agriculture

11. Insecurity in conservation for
REDD
• ”In tropical forest countries, the allocation or
effort between plantation silviculture and
reduction of deforestation would be influenced
by the stringency of requirements regarding
certainty.”
Philip M. Fearnside, INPA, Manaus, 2000
• Clearly illustrated 10 yrs later for the Aamazon

12. Increased fire trend in landscapes with forest
conservation 2000-2007 in the Amazon
• A larger increase of fire
in land with decreasing
deforestation than in land
with increasing
deforestation
Aragão and Shimabukuro
in Science June 2010

13. Many fires with expanding agriculture
and with forests in mixed landscapes
• Large increase in fire
irrespective of type of
agriculture established
• Fire incidense remain
high in landscapes with
less managed/intensive
land use irrespective of
fraction used
Aragão and Shimabukuro
in Science June 2010

14. Similar preliminary observations
in Guatemala
• More frequent fire in
conserved forest than
in managed forests
• One fire often leads to
another one on the
same land and
vegetation/carbon
show a deteriorating
trend
4321
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4321
Lowland
Fire history
Carbon/hectare
Mountain
144,344
371,348
61,053
216,254211,254
347,223
Panel variable: Stratum
Carbon Desity in Different Strata
1: non affected, 2: >10years ago, 3: 5-10 years ago, 4: 0-5years ago
Steffen Lackman, MSc thesis in prep

15. This is how landscapes commonly appear today
Dynamic mosaics of multiple extensive land uses with or without trees
The forest has a marginal value in the extensive landscape use
Open and fragmented forests are much more fire prone than old natural
forests

16. Mans’ memory is short – now > 10 yr
since the last severe El Niño droughts
and fire is marginal on the agenda...
Natural forests with logging gaps and
secondary forests are more prone to fire
because they dry out even with annually
occurring short dry periods (weeks)
Explains high fire incidense in forest
remaining even after hold in deforestation
In longer droughts (months) with strong El
Niño events the regional fire effects are
catastrofic (eg. SE Asia, C America and the
Amazon)
Once burned, the new secondary vegetation
is even more fire prone and fire is soon
repeated and so on...
Part of conceptual model on fire risk and land degradation,
Malmer et al., 2005

17. ”Yesterdays loss can be tomorrows’ gain – degraded,
deforested and degraded areas can be restored for a
multitude of benefits...”
(World Resources Institute)

18. Sandewall et al., Ambio in press
The old forest is gone for a
long time as is the secondaty
forest increasingly.
But in the villages the
families economies are
growing with a growing
market for pulp- and fire
wood.
Vietnam is a country with increasing forest cover

19. Defenitions, common
language and policy
• Strong northern/western opposition against
use (logging) of humid tropical forests from
the 1980’ies
• Later recognition that development in a
broad sense leads to deforestation
• Today in Sweden;
deforestation = devastation
(avskogning = skövling, Wikipedia)
(forest disturbance = devastation, national media)
i.e. Also a vague or very varying societal appreciation of the problems which may
lead to skewed policy development on suitable strategies for poor southern
countries?

20. ”Inappropriateness of forest management”
and identification of other aspects (eg.
Governance) as limiting has been leaving
technical development in the south behind?
• In the north technical development is leading for commersial and
industrial life
• Equal values to other benefits of forests has not come into
legislation until 100 yrs after commersial forestry and when the
landscape is already ”industrialized”
• In the south industry themselves have been leading technical
development, resulting in clonal plantation forestry the only viable
alternative to often failing community forest initiatives
• Options for the poorer land owners/users are often urbanisation,
destructive charcoal production or insecure new markets for NTFP’s
and tourism

21. Examples of strategies from the Brazilian Amazon

23. Examples of strategies from the Brazilian Amazon
The Amazon state
1.54 milj km2 of forest – 92 % undisturbed
52 % of forests in conservation (Nature or Ethnic)
Most people live in Manaus (70 %) –
-an industrial city in the forest without forest based industry
Forest strategy remain at tourism, conservation and ethnic reserves
Forest police to curb illegal logging and illegal land immigrants

24. The state of Mato Grosso

25. The state of Mato Grosso
28 % of 900 000 km2 intensive agiculture converted from forests (soya, maize & cotton)
29 % pastures and 38 % ”other forest” (pastures – secondary forests – primary forests)
5 % protected land (2009) and ongoing riparian forest restoration
Strategy for agribusiness to grow 50 % in 20 years and to conserve remaning primary forests
Unused pastures and secondary forests seen as potential for development but not a main
priority
Bilateral ”REDD” agreement with the state of California, USA

26. The state of Acre
1000 km from Manaus and 500 km from La Paz and Lima
92 % out of 154 000 km2 is forest
55 % in protected areas
30 % target for agriculture and forestry
Small scale agriculture (micro loans)
Sustainable logging, rubber and tourism in thew same forests
Active and promoted research on additional products from forests

27. Vast areas
with large
potensial for
forests or trees
in the
landscapes
Many types to
suit
landscapes
and peoples
needs
Common generalisations does not hold
for the jiggzaw puzzle that has to be laid

28. Many more kinds of forests and trees in the landscape
today, but with varying technical backing
(FAO’s definitions)
How do we fit suitable systems to local ecology, peoples needs and governance?

29. Thank you
Anders.Malmer@sek.slu.se