The document contains several graphs and figures related to the impacts of climate change on health. It shows a correlation between increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and rising global temperatures over time. It also illustrates how climate change can indirectly and directly impact health through changes to physical systems, ecology, and extreme weather. Additionally, it provides examples of how conditions like floods, malaria, and malnutrition attributed to climate change could increase mortality and disease burden in developing countries by 2030 if no action is taken.
5. CO2
ppm Temp
oC
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
390
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
14.5
14.3
14.1
13.9
13.7
13.5
Correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and Earth’s
average surface temperature
Year
CO2
concentration
Earth’s Temperature
(background wobble due
to natural influences)
Graph from: Hanno, 2009
6. Climate Change: Health Impact Pathways
Physical systems
(river flows, soil moisture,
ocean temp)
Indirect health
impacts –
ecologically
mediated
Indirect
health
impacts –
socially
mediated
Direct impacts (extreme
weather events, heatwaves,
air pollutants, etc.)
Climate Change
Impacts
7. Regions afflicted by problems
due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
• sea level rise
• pre-existing hunger
• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute
Lecture.Sydney]
Climate Change: Multiplier of
Conflicts and Regional Tensions
8. Floods
Malaria
Diarrhoea
Malnutrition
020406080100120 0 2 4 6 8 10
Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions)
2000 2030
Deaths and DALYs attributable to Climate Change, 2000 & 2030
Selected conditions in developing countries
WHO/McMichael,Campbell-Lendrum, Kovats et al, 2004
Now (2000)
Future (2030)
Deaths Total Burden
9. 1m: half of Bangladesh rice fields
2m: most of Mekong Delta
10. Climate Change and Health
Research Tasks and Policy Foci
Human society:
• Population size
• Economic activity
• Culture, governance
Human pressure
on environment
Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008
Adaptation: Reduce
health impacts/risks
Human impacts:
• Livelihoods
• Social stability
• Health
Health Co-
benefits?
Unintended
health effects
Mitigation of Climate
Change: Reduce
GHG emissions
Climate - environmental
changes, affecting:
• Meteorological conditions
• Water flows
• Food yields
• Physical (protective) buffers
• Microbial activity
• Extreme weather events
4
Risks to
humans better
understood
2
3Natural
environmental
processes
1a-c
Need for local
prevention
11. Photo-
synthetic
activity
20o C 30o C 40o C
Food Yields: General Relationship
of Temperature and
Photosynthesis
0%
100%
Example: Field & Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007:
Globally averaged: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%.
So: +2oC would mean 12-20% fall in global grain production.
+2oC
+2oC
Plus:
• Floods,
storms
, fires
• Drough
ts –
range,
severit
y
• Pests
• Diseas
es
12. Are the zones
being pushed
south, by
warming?
… and here?
Health
Consequences?
Marked wet
summer and
dry winter
Wet summer
and low winter
rainfall
Uniform
rainfall
Marked wet
winter and
dry summer
Low rainfallWet winter and
low summer
rainfall
AridWinter dominantWinter
Summer dominant Summer Uniform
Crucial for
wheat-belt
Australia: Climate change, seasonal rainfall
zones, farm yields, health impacts
13. Reducing Health Impacts of Climate
Change … Health Co-Benefits as
‘bonus’Disease burden
Mitigation begins
emissions reduction (etc.)
now 2050 2100
Health Co-Benefits (local/regional)
Baseline burden
Health impact
averted by
mitigation
Impact avoidance
via adaptation
14. Model-fitted relationship of monthly Salmonellosis case
counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five
Australian cities, 1991-2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Average MonthlyTemperature oC
Salmonellacount
Perth
Brisbane
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
D’Souza et al., 2003
