Polkadot JAM Slides - Token2049 - By Dr. Gavin Wood
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study on Natural and Agricultural Systems
1. Task 2: Mekong ARCC Climate
Change Impact and Adaptation
Study for natural and agricultural
systems
May 2012, Vientiane
2. Aim
• The aim of Task 2 is to undertake a climate change
impact and adaptation study on the water
resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity
of the Mekong River Basin
3. Objectives
1) identify vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment to
climate change vis-à-vis water resources, food
security, livelihoods and biodiversity;
2) provide a scientific evidence base for the selection of case
study sites;
3) identify adaptation strategies to inform development of
community and ecosystem-based adaptation projects; and
4) inform policy makers, development specialists and the global
climate science community on the impacts of climate change
on water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity
of the Mekong Basin.
4. Phases, events & outputs
threat vulnerability adaptation
3. Future
5. Identify
2. Zoning and climate 4.Vulnerability
1. Inception adaption 6. Reporting
trend analysis conditions assessment
options
and threats
Team Inception Team Vulnerability Team Final
working workshop working workshop working workshop
session session session
Baseline assessment Basin & zone Adaptation FINAL
& review of past vulnerability options by REPORT
studies assessment Zones
5. Study technical team
Sector/theme working groups
Sector/theme Members
1. Climate change, water Tarek Ketelsen (lead), Jorma Koponen, Mai Ky Vinh, Oliver Joffre
resources, modelling and GIS
2. Natural systems and Peter-John Meynell (lead), Nguyen Huu Thien, Sansanee
biodiversity Choowaew, Jeremy Carew-Reid,
3. Agriculture Oliver Joffre (lead), Dang Kieu Nhan, Bun Chantrea, Jorma
Koponen
4. Fisheries and aquaculture Rick Gregory (lead) Truong Hoanh Minh, Chavalit Vidthayanon,
Meng Monyrak
5. Livestock Rod Lefroy (remote participant)
6. Socio-economics and John Sawdon (lead), Try Thuon, Sengmanichanh
livelihoods Somchanmavong, Alex Kenny
National working groups
Sector/theme Members
1. Cambodia Try Thuon (lead), Bun Chantrea, Meng Monyrak
2. Lao PDR Sengmanichanh Somchanmavong (lead)
3. Thailand Sansanee Choowaew (lead), Chavalit Vidthayanon
4. Vietnam Nguyen Huu Thien (lead), Dang Kieu Nhan, Truong Hoanh Minh,
6. Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and
subsistence livelihoods
Climate
changes
Hydrological
changes
Agricultural Ecological
zones zones
Species “zones”
Commercial Subsistence Aqua- Traditional Live- Crop wild NTFPs Wild fish Wildlife
crops crops culture crops stock relatives catch
Adaptation options
10. Climate change overlaid on “zones”
Zones provide the common analytical framework for the study team
Purpose of zoning is to:
• Identify areas of the basin with common bio-physical and
socio-economic characteristics
• Observe “shifts” in the zones with climate change
Three types of zones:
1. Climate change zones – temperature, rainfall
and hydrology
2. Agricultural zones – agricultural land uses and
natural conditions
3. Ecological zones – natural habitat, species and
genetic resources 10
11. Climate
change zones
Areas experiencing
similar climate
change
2050
14. Climate change shifts
Regular climate
1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability
2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and
species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation
3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping
patterns
Extreme events
4. Extreme event shifts
Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands
Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
15. Geographic shift Shift in zone of suitability
for habitat and crops
Original extent of
natural habitat
Paddy rice
and
commercial
crops
Remaining
natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF
pockets collection
17. Seasonal shifts
Kratie
Increase in flood magnitude
& volume
Quicker onset of flood &
shortening of transition
season Increase in flood duration
Source: ICEM, 2012
18. Climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas
• High exposure:
significant climate change relative to base conditions
exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions
• High sensitivity:
limited temperature and moisture tolerance range
degraded and/or under acute pressure
severely restricted geographic range
rare or threatened
• Low adaptive capacity
Poor connectivity
Low diversity and tolerances
Homogenous systems
26. Key issues the team needs to resolve
• Deciding on the priority assets (i.e. species and
habitats)
• Linking species to habitats
• Dealing with ecosystem services
• Knowing enough about species and habitat
tolerances to conduct the vulnerability assessment
32. Approaches to modeling climate change:
assessing future threat
• CC modelling:
– allows for the 1. Projections of future emissions
quantification of future
climate change threats 2. Projections of future atmospheric
and ocean dynamics
– Is not perfect but is
based on leading 3. Downscaling projections to the
Mekong Basin
thinking on climate
science
4. Predicting future changes in the
– Assesses the impact of basin hydrological regime
changes in the global 5. Predicting future changes in the
climate system to local Delta floodplain environment & project
site
areas of interest
32
33. Steps in the CC approach:
1 - Selection of appropriate IPCC scenarios
33
Source: CSIRO, 2009
34. Step 2: selection of appropriate GCMs
• Two earlier studies (Cao et al, 2009; Eastham et al, 2008)
reviewed the performance of or used 17/24 IPCC AR4 GCMs
for suitability to the Mekong region
• 6 were chosen based on their ability to replicate daily
historical temperature and rainfall data
• In general, models perform better for temperature than
precipitation
Climate model CO2 Scenario Abbreviation Data period Model resolution (degrees)
CCCMA_CGCM3.1 A1b, B1 ccA, ccB 1850-2300 3.75° x 3.75°
CNRM_CM3 A1b, B1 cnA, cnB 1860-2299 2.8° x 2.8°
GISS_AOM A1b, B1 giA, giB 1850-2100 3° x 4°
MIROC3.2Hires A1b, B1 miA, miB 1900-2100 1.1° x 1.1°
MPI_ECHAM5 A1b, B1 mpA, mpB 1860-2200 1.9° x 1.9°
NCAR_CCSM3 A1b, B1 ncA, ncB 1870-2099 1.4° x 1.4°
34
35. Steps 3 – downscaling projections to the Mekong Basin
Purpose: reduce the geographical scope so that
resolution can be improved
1. Statistical
Assumes local climate is conditioned by large-
scale (global) climate but does not try to
understand physical causality
GCM output is compared to observed information
for a reference period to calculate period factors
Period factors are then used to adjust GCM time-
series
2. RCM (Regional Circulation Models)
most sophisticated way to downscale GCM data
Physically based
25-50km resolution
Computationally intensive
Requires detailed understanding of regional
atmospheric and ocean processes
3. Pattern-scaling
Uses high resolution observation data to scale
GCM data to small areas or monitoring points
Suitable when there is extensive observation data
Cannot correct for statistical bias so should only
be used to assess relative changes 35
36. Step 4 – Predicting future changes in the basin hydrological
regime
• VMod model
• area-based distribution of
hydro-meteorological
impacts of climate change
• Computes water balance for
grid cells ~3kmx3km
• Baseline 1981 - 2005
• Can predict changes in:
– Rainfall
– Runoff
– Flows
– Infiltration
– evapotranspiration
36
37. Step 5 – Predicting future changes in the flooding
• MIKE-11
• Uses Vmod to establish
boundary conditions
• Divides the floodplain into
zones (>120 in the delta)
• Calculates small area water
balances
– 25,900 water level points
– 18,500 flow points
• Quantifies the changes in
depth and duration of
flooding due to changes in
upstream hydrology and sea
level rise
37
Source: SIWRR, 2011
39. Predicting future changes in land suitability
Basin – crop suitability
basin • Agro & eco zoning of basin characteristics
• Historic suitability of basin for a range of
commercial and subsistence crops
• Suitability with climate change
• Assessment of transitions and shifts in
geographical and seasonal suitability
target area
Target areas – crop yields
• Losses in crop yields within transition zones
• Yield potential for new crops in transition
zones
40. Predicting future changes in land suitability
LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool
• Developed by IRRI
• evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell)
for a single type of land use type (single crop).
• based on crop requirement, climate, terrain and soil
characteristics.
• Allows for assessing changes in temperature and
rainfall before aggregating suitability
41. Crop requirement: Terrain
(slope and drainage)
Terrain suitability value
Land characteristic:
Terrain (slope and
drainage)
Crop requirement: Soil
characteristics (pH, soil
texture, soil depth, base
saturation)
Soil characteristics Combined weighted Suitability class table and
suitability value suitability value GIS layer
Land characteristic: Soil
characteristics (pH, soil
texture, soil depth, base
saturation)
Crop requirement: Water,
temperature
Land characteristic:
Meteorological Water, temperature
characteristics (rainfall, suitability value
temperature)
Land characteristic:
Irrigation
41
52. Predicting future changes in agricultural productivity
AquaCrop
• Crop productivity model
developed by FAO
• Water driven
– quantifies the relationship between
crop growth/biomass and crop
transpiration
• Changes in yield compared to
reference/ideal conditions for a
given crop
• emphasizes the fundamental
processes involved in crop
productivity and the responses to
water deficits,
• Can also factor in CO2
concentrations
52
Source: FAO, 2010
53. Maize growth cycle
AquaCrop
• Assesses water
requirements at each
growth phase relative to
a reference norm and
quantifies changes in
biomass => yield
Source: FAO, 2010
54. yield
Establishment | Vegetative | Flowering | Formation | Ripening | Maturity
Reduction in max
canopy cover
Decline in
canopy cover
during
productive
phases (yield
formation/
ripening)
Delay in time to reach max canopy cover
Source: FAO, 2010