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The new face of retail
Retail and consumer trends reshaping the landscape
The materials contained in this document are intended to supplement a
discussion with L.E.K. Consulting. These perspectives are confidential
and will only be meaningful to those in attendance.
L.E.K. Consulting LLC, 75 State Street, 19th Floor, Boston, MA 02109, USA
T: 617.951.9500 F: 617.951.9392 www.lek.com
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
April 2014
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
2
A number of major trends are reshaping the U.S. retail landscape
The new face of retail
More spending among high and
low income levels as middle
class is squeezed
Hourglass
economy
1
Population is becoming older
and more ethnically diverse
Demographic
shifts
2
Information transparency and
accessibility creating empowered,
sophisticated consumers who
expect more from retailers
Uber consumers3
Digital tools and channels
have reshaped the purchase
cycle… and role of physical
stores
Omni-channel6
Paper and broad-based ad
vehicles declining, but not
dead
Decline of
traditional media
7
Balance of power has moved
to new channel segments
Channel shifts8
International markets provide
source of growth in otherwise
low growth world
International10
Brands establishing direct
consumer relationships and
building own commercial
channels (stores and e-com)
Brands going
direct to consumer
9
Consumers want specialized
brands, products, and
experiences that deliver on
specific needs
Smaller and
focused is better
4
Brands / retailers building a deeper
understanding of consumers and
tailoring product, messaging, and
experience to their specific needs
One-to-one
customer
engagement
5
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
3
The rising income inequality gap is squeezing the middle class, resulting in
an “hourglass” economy
Source: U.S. Census, CBRE; L.E.K. research and analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
The new face of retail
Top 20%
Bottom 20%
50
100
60
0
10
20
30
40
70
80
90
Lowest quintile
Second quintile
2005 2010 20121975 1980
Highest quintile
Fourth quintile
1985 1990 1995 2000
U.S. shares of household income
(1970 – 2012)
1970
Third quintile
1
2
3
4
5
 The highest 20% of earners
accounted for more than half of the
income earned in 2013, up from 43%
in 1970
 Upper-middle class proportion of
income has declined ~2ppt since
1970, largely at the benefit of the top
quintile
 Meanwhile, the share of middle-
income households has markedly
declined
- Third quintile middle-class share
has declined 3ppt since 1970, or
20% of its relative share
 Lower-income households have
largely maintained income levels and
even increased spending power, due
in part to government assistance
(transfer payments, tax credits,
subsidy programs, etc.)
1
2
3
4 5
Macroeconomic indicators suggest these
trends are structural and unlikely to
change in the near future
Hourglass economy1
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
4
The effects of the hourglass economy can be seen all around us
Source: Bloomberg, Forbes, QSRWeb.com, USDA, Financial Times, Savings.com,, Euromonitor, NRN, company websites
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
The new face of retailHourglass economy1
 Private label accounts for nearly 23% of unit sales in the U.S.
 Dollar General added ~650 stores in 2013 and plans to open 700 additional stores in 2014
 Deals offered by major department stores and apparel retailers increased 63% between 2009-2012,
with average discounts rising from 25% to 36% over the same period
 P&G developed dish soap Gain specifically targeting low-income brackets; the product achieved retail
value sales growth of 70% in 2012
 Fast casual restaurant traffic rose 8% in 2013, compared to a decrease of 1% and 2% for casual dining
and midscale restaurants, respectively
 The luxury market in the Americas grew ~4% p.a. from 2008-2013
 Global sales at LVMH grew ~4% in 2013
 Neiman Marcus experienced same store sales growth of ~6% in the first half of FY 2014
 Whole Foods’ 2013 profit was up ~20% YoY
 Patron Tequila has capitalized on “ultra-premiumization” to reach >2M cases/year
 BMW posted record sales of over 309K units in the U.S. in 2013, representing 10% growth over 2012
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
5
Note: * Non-Hispanics only
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, L.E.K. Analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CAGR %
(2012-20F)
0.9
3.2
2.0
1.0
2.3
0.8340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
U.S. population by ethnicity
(1980-2020F)
Millions of people
2020F20121980
Total
The new face of retail
Demographic shifts are changing the composition of the U.S. consumer base
Demographic shifts2
180
200
160
140
120
100
80
300
320
340
280
260
220
240
40
60
20
0
U.S. population by age group
(1980-2020F)
Millions of people
Kids (3-8)
Infants (0-2)
2020F
333
2012
314
1980
227 Young Adults (18-29)
Middle Youth
(30-44)
Tweens (9-12)
Seniors (60+)
Mid-Lifers
(45-59)
Teens (13-17)
0.1
CAGR %
(2012-20F)
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.7
0.8
Total
(0.2)
(0.5)
2.9
American Indian
& Eskimo*
White*
Hispanic
Black*
Two or More
Races & Other*
Asian & NHPI*
∆ million
people
(2012-20F)
0.2
1.7
2.7
3.0
10.8
1.6
20.0
∆ million
people
(2012-20F)
0.4
(0.3)
0.1
0.8
1.1
4.0
(2.5)
15.5
19.0
81% of U.S. population growth
coming from Seniors (60+)
76% of U.S. population growth
coming from Hispanic and
Asian households
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
6
The new face of retail
Forward-looking consumer businesses are finding ways to exploit these
trends
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Consumer Expenditures Report, Euromonitor, Convenience Store News, Kurt Salmon, Latin Post, Whole Foods, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Demographic shifts2
Aging population
Ethnic diversity
Broaden products and
engagement tactics to cater
to an older consumer base
without losing focus on the
younger demographic
Evolve traditional approaches
(product, marketing,
distribution, etc.) to access
growing ethnic consumer
segments
Channel
and location
presence
Evolve
product for
consumers
Tailored
media /
advertising
• Hispanics spend more on food than any other item and more
on apparel & services than any other consumer group
• 61% of Hispanics shop with a child or another adult, vs. 38%
of gen. pop.
• U.S. Hispanics consume more media via mobile phones &
magazines than non-Hispanics, but less on tablets & TV
• Hispanics have a different channel mix (e.g., over-index in
bodegas and dollar stores)
• 7-11 growing in Hispanic neighborhoods to compete with
bodegas
Contemporary
needs
Tailored
offerings for
seniors
Key
segments
intrinsically
advantaged
1
2
3
1
2
3
• Retailers directly targeting seniors and giving them specific
experiences / products (e.g., Amazon’s easy-to-navigate
micro-site for older consumers)
• Certain categories should see out-sized benefits due to key
themes (e.g., travel & leisure, heath & wellness, etc.)
• Today's seniors are different (e.g., live longer, are healthier)
• They’re physically active and want to look / dress / feel
younger
• They are digitally savvy
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
7
Today’s consumers are highly informed and savvy, which is raising the bar
for retailers and brands to win their business
Source: L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
The new face of retail
Customers “know” the
products better…
…understand they
have a multitude of
options…
…know exactly what
each of those options
are charging…
 Ability to instantly
shop and compare
across channels /
brands
 Access to countless
sources of
information
 With online product
reviews, real
consumer
experiences matter;
it’s no longer just
about marketing
 A deeper
understanding of
products and their
attributes means
falling short on any
one attribute can be
devastating
 Visibility and
access to countless
brands / products
 Outside the confines
of the physical (e.g.,
mall and shelf), the
universe of options
is vast and
competition is much
greater
 Price transparency
has never been
greater
 Consumers are
sophisticated in
comparing price and
value
 Digital makes
everything
convenient; there’s
no longer a reason to
pay higher price
 Consumers don’t
have tolerance for
paying price
premium
Uber consumers3
…and therefore
require true
differentiation
 The product and
value proposition
must clear and
compelling
 Need to
differentiate and
eliminate choice;
consumers must
want YOUR product
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
8
For example …
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Google Shopper Marketing Council Insights
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
21
15
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010
15%
Researched a Product / Service
Online Yesterday (2004-2010)
% of Americans
20072004
Mobile is accelerating this trend
79% of smartphone owners use their device to assist with
shopping at least 1x / month; of these shoppers:
44% make price comparisons
44% find promo offers
31% find product information
31% find product availability in-store
30% find product reviews
84% use to help shop while in-store
Uber consumers3 The new face of retail
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
9
Consumers have increasingly higher expectations of retailers and brandsAbilitytobuyonline,
pickupin-store
50%
71%
Abilitytoviewin-store
inventoryonlineSource: Forrester, Accenture, Oracle
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Consumers expect …
73%
Onlineandin-store
pricingtobethesame
61%
Onlineandin-store
promotionstobethesame
Responsewithin
2hoursofcomplaint
onTwitter
52%
Uber consumers3 The new face of retail
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
10
These rising consumer expectations are putting pressure on retailers to
evolve their go-to-market strategies to meet consumers’ needs
Before… Today!
Price
Selection
Convenience
Availability
Selection, Availability, Price, Convenience
Free shipping /
returns
Multi-channel shopping,
delivery, & returns
Bigger selection
Same / next day
delivery
Personalized
experiences
Uber consumers3
Impartial
recommendations
Consistent
engagement
Easy navigation
Promotions
Whatever, wherever, and whenever
The new face of retail
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
11
Brands are becoming increasingly specialized across categories … and
bigger is not always better
The new face of retail
Source: Company websites, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Smaller & focused
is better
4
Food & beverage
Personal care
Apparel & accessories
Other
Energy / recovery Sport performance
Healthy lifestyle
Cosmetics Health & wellness
Bath & body
Outdoor apparel Focused lifestyle
Active lifestyle
Technology
Fitness & clubs
Fast food
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
12
Brands and retailers are building more robust datasets of their customers;
sophisticated data analytics can unlock substantial benefits via more
tailored strategies (experiences, messaging, assortments, offers, etc.)
The new face of retail
Source: Experian, Company websites, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
One-to-one customer
engagement
5
Transaction
history
Behavior by
channel
Demographic
information
Stated
preferences
Sophisticated data analytics
Tailored offerings delivering enhanced value to consumers based on their specific needs
Personalized messages
perform 10x better in
terms of revenue
generated per message,
than traditional batch
and blast emails
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
13
Deeper insights are enabling companies to establish stronger connections
with consumers and deliver a more compelling value proposition
The new face of retail
Note: * As told to Advertising Age
Source: Advertising Age, MGI, ICLP, Internet Retailer, Retail Touch Points, Company websites, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
One-to-one customer
engagement
5
 Shoedazzle steers customers in the direction of the product which they would
most likely be interested in by collecting shopping preferences via a quiz prior
to giving the customer product recommendations
“… We ask them what they’re looking for next month… They tell [our client services team]
what they’re looking for and ultimately that information informs the algorithm …”
Chief Marketing Officer, Shoedazzle
 Harrah’s considers its loyalty program “the vertebrae of the company” and utilizes
customer data to personalize the guest experience before, during, and after
visits
“… We know if you like golf, chardonnay, down pillows, if you like your room close to the
elevator, which properties you visit, what games you play, and which offers you redeem …”
Former CMO, Harrah’s*
 Amazon utilizes collaborative filtering to generate add-ons and adjacent
product recommendations
- The company attributes up to 30% of sales to its recommendation engine
 Williams-Sonoma uses personalized e-mail targeting by combining shopper
history with broader demographic information on ~60 million households (e.g.,
income, home values, and number of children)
- The company cites a 10-18x better response rate of these targeted emails
 Revolve Clothing allows shoppers to build their own digital boutiques, which they
curate with assortments of their favorite products and designers from the store
- The company cites that shoppers using the interactive feature are 6x more likely to convert than
consumers that browse on the standard e-commerce site
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
14
The traditional purchase path …
The new face of retail
Awareness
Consideration
Purchase
Intent
Omni-channel6
Source: L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
15
… has been dramatically changed by technology
The new face of retail
Educate
Compare
Reflect & share
Omni-channel6
Awareness
Consideration
Purchase
Intent
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
16
The lines between offline and online shopping experiences are blurring
In-store
Online
51%
Research
online and visit
store to
purchase
44%
Research
online and buy
products
online
17%
Visit a store
first, and then
purchase
online
32%
Research
online, visit
store to view
product, then
return online
to purchase
Source: Google Think Insights
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
The new face of retailOmni-channel6
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
17
Some examples of the way consumers are engaging outside the store …
52% of shoppers share retail-related
posts via social media, of which:
• 51% post pictures of items they’re
interested in
• 37% post items they’ve purchased
• 29% post about coupons / sales
65% of tablet device
owners used their
device for shopping
activities in Q3 2013
Blogs are most likely
to influence a
purchase after retail /
brand sites; they rank
favorably for trust,
popularity &
influence
Source: Nielson, JiWIre, Shop.org, Business Insider
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
The new face of retailOmni-channel6
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
18
The new face of retail
Retailers are experiencing a significant channel shift as consumers
increasingly utilize e-commerce in lieu of stores
*Note: 2011 is the most recent year with annual figures; analysis excludes Building materials and supplies stores, Health and personal care stores, and
General merchandise stores because of data limitations, and Nonstore retailers and Gas Stations because of relevance
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Store-based retail sales
are not growing; virtually
all growth in consumer
spend is being captured
by e-commerce
Omni-channel6
7
2
4
5
7
8
9
18
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
U.S. online sales as percent of total
retail sales* by product category (2013E)
Percentage
Computerand
electronics
Appareland
accessories
Books,music,video
Auto&parts
Furnitureandhome
furnishings
Healthandpersonal
care
Toysandhobby
Foodandbeverage
Total
82,046
133
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
In-store E-commerce
Change in U.S. retail sales, 2006 – 2011*
$M
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
19
*Note: Traffic data is collected from 60,000 traffic-tracking devices installed at malls and large retailers
Source: Wall Street Journal, ShopperTrak, L.E.K. research and analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
18
21
25
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013201220112010
Total mall and large retailer foot traffic for
November and December 2010-2013 (ShopperTrak)
Billions of Visits*
-20%
The new face of retail
The widely cited fall in mall traffic is the most visible sign of the rapid
change that retailers are facing
Omni-channel6
• Fewer store visits and transactions
• Non-destination categories (e.g., impulse,
add-on purchases) particularly at risk
• Stores are playing new roles
 Traffic to U.S. retailers is declining, in large
part due to a shift to digital tools and
e-commerce
- There is a lesser need to go to stores given
other options for research and purchase
 Shoppers also aren’t using physical stores to
browse as much anymore
- Shoppers visited an average of
5 stores per mall trip in 2007, vs.
3 stores in 2013
 These trends continue to prevail and should
drive even further e-commerce penetration
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
20
The new face of retail
To win business in this new multi-channel environment, companies must
define what ‘omni-channel’ means for them and make investments to enable
this
Omni-channel6
Channel strategy
Single view of
the customer
Organizational
alignment
Fulfillment /
logistics
Marketing Merchandising
Increased:
Traffic
Engagement
Sales
Loyalty
Seamless,
holistic
customer
experience
Omnichannel
interactions
Foundational
enablers
1 2 3
4 5 6
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
21
We believe that developing an omni-channel strategy is best done by
considering the needs across the full consumer lifecycle
The new face of retailOmni-channel6
Learn
Research
Purchase
Support
Share
Consumer engagement lifecycle
Product
Whatever
Whenever
However
Channels
Marketing
and tools
Increase
awareness
Share and socialize
Expand community
Drive
consideration
and selection
Post-purchase
support
Facilitate the purchase process
Source: Company websites; FierceRetail; BusinessInsider
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
22
Engagement with traditional media continues to decline…
The new face of retail
Decline of traditional
media
7
Source: Editor and Publisher Yearbook, Alliance for Audited Media, Nielsen Media Research
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
4343
49
52
54
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
U.S. weekday newspaper circulation
(2004-12)
Millions of subscriptions
121008062004
-8
-9
-8
-9
-11
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
U.S. magazine single-copy sales
(2008-12)
Percent change in sales
121110092008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12100806
U.S. broadcast television ratings
(2004-12)
Average rating per night
2004
CBS
ABC
NBC
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
23
… however, the growth of digital provides retailers with increasing
opportunities and formats to engage with consumers
The new face of retail
Decline of traditional
media
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
20122011201020092008200720062005
U.S. advertising revenue by media (2005 – 2012)
Billions of dollars
Newspaper
Internet
Radio
Cable television
Broadcast television
Note: * “Social media advertising” encompasses all money spent on ad formats across social networks, including both display and native advertising
Source: Pew Research Center, IAB, PWC, BIA / Kelsey
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CAGR %
(2005-2012)
(1.1)
16.8
3.7
(12.1)
(2.7)
0.0Total
Marketers are still
spending the same amount
on advertising, but through
different media
11
10
8
7
6
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
U.S. social media advertising growth (2012-17F)*
YoY percent growth
17161514132012
Social media
advertising is projected
to grow at a CAGR of
~19% through 2017
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
24
Retailers and brands are working hard to effectively realign their marketing
strategies in this environment
Marketing objectives
Reactivate lapsed customers
Build awareness
Engage / retain customers
Acquire new customers
Stimulate purchases
Marketing tools
The new face of retail
Decline of traditional
media
7
How do you
effectively deploy
these tools?
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
25
The balance of power within the retail channel has also evolved dramatically
The new face of retail
Note: 1Excludes food, motor vehicle and parts dealers, and gasoline stations; 2Includes H&M, Inditex and American Apparel; 3IIncludes TJX, Ross Stores & Stein Mart;
4Includes mass merchants (e.g., Wal-Mart); 5Includes Dick’s Sporting Goods, Staples, Office Depot, Barnes & Nobles, PETCO, PetSmart, Toys R Us, Best Buy, Circuit City,
Bed, Bath & Beyond, Guitar Center, Linens and Things & Borders
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, WSJ; TJX Investor Information; International Council of Shopping Centers; ICSC; L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Change in U.S. Retail Sales by Select Channels (2003-2013) 1
CAGR % Total Retail Sales 1 : 4.0%
-2.0
2.6
3.1
3.7
5.1
5.4
6.9
7.1
11.7
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12
Department Stores
Grocery
Big box specialty5
Off-Price Retail3
Fast Fashion2
Outlet Stores
Drug Stores
Dollar Stores
Mass Merchants & Clubs4
• Growth supported by the entry of international retailers such as Zara,
H&M and Uniqlo
• U.S. sales at Zara more than tripled between 2007-12 and Uniqlo plans
to expand its store count from ~20 currently to 200 by 2020
• Costco grew from ~430 to ~650 locations from 2003-13
• Walmart and Target successful in expanding geographically and driving
traffic with super-center format
• ~4,300 and ~2,800 stores added at Dollar General and Family Dollar,
respectively, since 2003
• Growing market share by substantially expanding food & consumables
offer, growing private label, and building destination categories
• Subject to industry consolidation (e.g., Eckerd, Duane Reade)
• Faced challenges in some categories (e.g. photography) which the
category has sought to counter by placing more focus on grocery type
items & increasingly fresh food
• Competing with warehouse clubs and supercenters at the lower end
• Premium / specialty segment (e.g., Whole Foods) seeing continued
growth
• More brands going direct with own stores and online
• May/Federated merger resulted in net store closings
• Many regional department stores have declared bankruptcy (e.g.,
Hacketts, Loehmann’s & Mervyn’s)
• Model which delivers treasure hunt for top brands at great value has
driven consistent growth, even through tough market conditions
• TJX added ~650 stores between 2003 and 2013 and plans to add ~100
new locations across the U.S. in 2014
• Outlet center openings have grown from ~2 per year in 2008 to ~8 per
year in 2011
• Center owners have relaxed or abandoned former radius restrictions
• Channel has struggled to compete on the basis of breadth of product
range since the emergence of online retailers such as Amazon
• Littered with bankruptcies, e.g., Barnes & Noble, Linens and Things,
Circuit City. Many others facing major challenges
Channel shifts8
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
26
The new face of retail
Brands are increasingly going directly to the consumer
Brands going direct
to consumer
9
 Forgoing the traditional
wholesale route of selling through
multi-brand retailers
Many brands are…
Source: L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
 Increasingly making websites
more commercial and marketing /
selling directly to consumers
 Relying on Amazon’s Marketplace
to increase awareness and tap into
Amazon’s ~85 million unique
monthly visitors
 Building direct consumer
relationships and engagement via
social media, community outreach,
content, and value-add services
 Opening outlet stores to convey
full brand representation and drive
incremental sales of full-price and
liquidation goods
Significant incentives for brands to go direct include: higher margin capture, controlling
customer relationship, and compensating for weaker points of physical wholesale distribution
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
27
The new face of retail
Source: SEC filings, MarketWatch, Company websites, Forbes, Seattle Times, Reuters, Business Week, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Brands across categories are pursuing global strategies to capitalize on
macroeconomic tailwinds
Geographic distribution of sales (Percent of 2012 sales)
Retailer N. America Europe Asia ROW
68% 5% 8% 19%
48% 11% 38% 3%
64% 22% 14% -
42% 25% 16% 17%
70% 20% 10%
40% 13% 7% 40%
32% 39% 29%
EXTRA! EXTRA!
“Walmart to invest more in Mexico this year”
“Tiffany & Co is embarking on major
expansion plans, bringing its ubiquitous
name to new areas, including India”
“Ralph Lauren reaches worldwide audience with
its Olympic made-in-America designs”
“Going forward, market penetration in
China and e-commerce growth look to be
two of the biggest contributing growth
factors for Nike”
“This Bud’s for you, Brazil – AB InBev to
introduce Budweiser as a premium brand
in Latin America’s largest nation”
International10
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
28
Retailers are increasingly expanding to emerging economies in Asia, Africa
and Latin America as the middle class in these geographies grows
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Size of worldwide middle class* population (2009-30F)
Millions
North America ~(2)
Europe ~1
Middle East & N. Africa ~49
Sub-Saharan Africa ~83
Asia Pacific ~148
Central & S. America ~31
30F
~4,900
20F
~3,200
2009
~1,800
CAGR%
(2009-30F)
The new face of retail
Note: * Defined by Brookings Institution as households with daily expenditures between US$10-US$100 / person in purchasing power parity terms; North
America includes U.S. and Canada only; Europe includes the EU5, Russia, Scandinavian countries as well as Eastern European countries; Asia
Pacific includes China, India, other Asian countries as well as Oceania ; ** India 2012 data extrapolated
Source: Brookings Institution, L.E.K. analysis
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
Europe & North
America’s combined
share falls from 54% to
20% of the total middle
class population
International10
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
29
The new face of retail
So, what are the implications?
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
30
In light of these trends, retailers and brands should consider the following:
 Challenge the status quo and ask yourself, “Are we really delivering a compelling value proposition
to the customer?”
 Consider how you can position brands against distinct consumer segments and their needs to
separate yourself from the competition
 Embrace the hourglass economy and look to exploit opportunities at the top or bottom – don’t get
caught in the middle
 Find ways to activate key customer groups to take advantage of shifting income, age, and ethnicity
demographics, as well as changing consumer expectations
 Define what omni-channel means for you, and build a pragmatic plan to get there
 Holistically embrace digital and rethink the go-to-market channel plan, including the role of stores,
channel mix, links between digital and traditional stores, and the appropriate media mix to drive traffic
and customer acquisition / loyalty
 Build one-to-one relationships with your consumers and ‘own’ your brand engagement plan with them
 Refine pricing and promotion frameworks to maximize total margin dollars and profitability
 Evolve the organizational structure and capabilities to meet the realities of today’s business model
 Determine whether international is an opportunity for you and, if so, start planning now
The new face of retail
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Potential keys for success
8
9
10
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
31
 Do we have the right brand / product mix to compete
in today’s market?
 Do we have a robust consumer segmentation that
helps drive corporate strategy?
 Are we micro-targeting consumers? Do we even
have the capability to?
 How does our loyalty program differentiate in an
increasingly crowded space?
 Does our channel plan embrace technological
changes and the role of digital? Is our store strategy
aligned to demand and role shifts?
 Do we have the capabilities, org structure,
infrastructure, and incentives in place to win and
support growth objectives?
 How can we preserve profitability without losing
share in an increasingly price-transparent
environment?
 Are there activities 'on the edge' of our core business
that could drive differentiation, revenue and / or
customer satisfaction?
 Do we have an actionable plan to grow international?
Companies are asking themselves a number of key questions, and taking
action to evolve their businesses to win in this new market landscape
The new face of retail
Key questions to ask Potential areas to focus
 Strategic customer segmentation and
prioritization
 One-to-one customer relationship management
 Next-generation loyalty program
 Market-based store network, role and footprint
plan
 Pricing and promotion optimization by
objective, market, brand, etc.
 Omni-channel definition and plan with clear
priorities and timeline
 In-store customer service best practices and
training to deliver value to customer and
increase conversion
 Org structure and capabilities evolution
 “Edge” strategy (e.g., adjacent categories,
services)
 International expansion (e.g., market selection,
go-to-market planning, business optimization /
distributor management, implementation)
©2014 L.E.K. Consulting

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The New Face of Retail: Retail and Consumer Trends Reshaping the Landscape

  • 1. Bangkok Beijing Boston Chennai Chicago London Los Angeles Melbourne Milan Mumbai Munich New Delhi New York Paris San Francisco Sao Paulo Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Tokyo Wroclaw The new face of retail Retail and consumer trends reshaping the landscape The materials contained in this document are intended to supplement a discussion with L.E.K. Consulting. These perspectives are confidential and will only be meaningful to those in attendance. L.E.K. Consulting LLC, 75 State Street, 19th Floor, Boston, MA 02109, USA T: 617.951.9500 F: 617.951.9392 www.lek.com ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting April 2014
  • 2. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 2 A number of major trends are reshaping the U.S. retail landscape The new face of retail More spending among high and low income levels as middle class is squeezed Hourglass economy 1 Population is becoming older and more ethnically diverse Demographic shifts 2 Information transparency and accessibility creating empowered, sophisticated consumers who expect more from retailers Uber consumers3 Digital tools and channels have reshaped the purchase cycle… and role of physical stores Omni-channel6 Paper and broad-based ad vehicles declining, but not dead Decline of traditional media 7 Balance of power has moved to new channel segments Channel shifts8 International markets provide source of growth in otherwise low growth world International10 Brands establishing direct consumer relationships and building own commercial channels (stores and e-com) Brands going direct to consumer 9 Consumers want specialized brands, products, and experiences that deliver on specific needs Smaller and focused is better 4 Brands / retailers building a deeper understanding of consumers and tailoring product, messaging, and experience to their specific needs One-to-one customer engagement 5 ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 3. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 3 The rising income inequality gap is squeezing the middle class, resulting in an “hourglass” economy Source: U.S. Census, CBRE; L.E.K. research and analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting The new face of retail Top 20% Bottom 20% 50 100 60 0 10 20 30 40 70 80 90 Lowest quintile Second quintile 2005 2010 20121975 1980 Highest quintile Fourth quintile 1985 1990 1995 2000 U.S. shares of household income (1970 – 2012) 1970 Third quintile 1 2 3 4 5  The highest 20% of earners accounted for more than half of the income earned in 2013, up from 43% in 1970  Upper-middle class proportion of income has declined ~2ppt since 1970, largely at the benefit of the top quintile  Meanwhile, the share of middle- income households has markedly declined - Third quintile middle-class share has declined 3ppt since 1970, or 20% of its relative share  Lower-income households have largely maintained income levels and even increased spending power, due in part to government assistance (transfer payments, tax credits, subsidy programs, etc.) 1 2 3 4 5 Macroeconomic indicators suggest these trends are structural and unlikely to change in the near future Hourglass economy1
  • 4. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 4 The effects of the hourglass economy can be seen all around us Source: Bloomberg, Forbes, QSRWeb.com, USDA, Financial Times, Savings.com,, Euromonitor, NRN, company websites ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting The new face of retailHourglass economy1  Private label accounts for nearly 23% of unit sales in the U.S.  Dollar General added ~650 stores in 2013 and plans to open 700 additional stores in 2014  Deals offered by major department stores and apparel retailers increased 63% between 2009-2012, with average discounts rising from 25% to 36% over the same period  P&G developed dish soap Gain specifically targeting low-income brackets; the product achieved retail value sales growth of 70% in 2012  Fast casual restaurant traffic rose 8% in 2013, compared to a decrease of 1% and 2% for casual dining and midscale restaurants, respectively  The luxury market in the Americas grew ~4% p.a. from 2008-2013  Global sales at LVMH grew ~4% in 2013  Neiman Marcus experienced same store sales growth of ~6% in the first half of FY 2014  Whole Foods’ 2013 profit was up ~20% YoY  Patron Tequila has capitalized on “ultra-premiumization” to reach >2M cases/year  BMW posted record sales of over 309K units in the U.S. in 2013, representing 10% growth over 2012
  • 5. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 5 Note: * Non-Hispanics only Source: U.S. Census Bureau, L.E.K. Analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting CAGR % (2012-20F) 0.9 3.2 2.0 1.0 2.3 0.8340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 U.S. population by ethnicity (1980-2020F) Millions of people 2020F20121980 Total The new face of retail Demographic shifts are changing the composition of the U.S. consumer base Demographic shifts2 180 200 160 140 120 100 80 300 320 340 280 260 220 240 40 60 20 0 U.S. population by age group (1980-2020F) Millions of people Kids (3-8) Infants (0-2) 2020F 333 2012 314 1980 227 Young Adults (18-29) Middle Youth (30-44) Tweens (9-12) Seniors (60+) Mid-Lifers (45-59) Teens (13-17) 0.1 CAGR % (2012-20F) 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 Total (0.2) (0.5) 2.9 American Indian & Eskimo* White* Hispanic Black* Two or More Races & Other* Asian & NHPI* ∆ million people (2012-20F) 0.2 1.7 2.7 3.0 10.8 1.6 20.0 ∆ million people (2012-20F) 0.4 (0.3) 0.1 0.8 1.1 4.0 (2.5) 15.5 19.0 81% of U.S. population growth coming from Seniors (60+) 76% of U.S. population growth coming from Hispanic and Asian households
  • 6. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 6 The new face of retail Forward-looking consumer businesses are finding ways to exploit these trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau Consumer Expenditures Report, Euromonitor, Convenience Store News, Kurt Salmon, Latin Post, Whole Foods, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Demographic shifts2 Aging population Ethnic diversity Broaden products and engagement tactics to cater to an older consumer base without losing focus on the younger demographic Evolve traditional approaches (product, marketing, distribution, etc.) to access growing ethnic consumer segments Channel and location presence Evolve product for consumers Tailored media / advertising • Hispanics spend more on food than any other item and more on apparel & services than any other consumer group • 61% of Hispanics shop with a child or another adult, vs. 38% of gen. pop. • U.S. Hispanics consume more media via mobile phones & magazines than non-Hispanics, but less on tablets & TV • Hispanics have a different channel mix (e.g., over-index in bodegas and dollar stores) • 7-11 growing in Hispanic neighborhoods to compete with bodegas Contemporary needs Tailored offerings for seniors Key segments intrinsically advantaged 1 2 3 1 2 3 • Retailers directly targeting seniors and giving them specific experiences / products (e.g., Amazon’s easy-to-navigate micro-site for older consumers) • Certain categories should see out-sized benefits due to key themes (e.g., travel & leisure, heath & wellness, etc.) • Today's seniors are different (e.g., live longer, are healthier) • They’re physically active and want to look / dress / feel younger • They are digitally savvy
  • 7. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 7 Today’s consumers are highly informed and savvy, which is raising the bar for retailers and brands to win their business Source: L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting The new face of retail Customers “know” the products better… …understand they have a multitude of options… …know exactly what each of those options are charging…  Ability to instantly shop and compare across channels / brands  Access to countless sources of information  With online product reviews, real consumer experiences matter; it’s no longer just about marketing  A deeper understanding of products and their attributes means falling short on any one attribute can be devastating  Visibility and access to countless brands / products  Outside the confines of the physical (e.g., mall and shelf), the universe of options is vast and competition is much greater  Price transparency has never been greater  Consumers are sophisticated in comparing price and value  Digital makes everything convenient; there’s no longer a reason to pay higher price  Consumers don’t have tolerance for paying price premium Uber consumers3 …and therefore require true differentiation  The product and value proposition must clear and compelling  Need to differentiate and eliminate choice; consumers must want YOUR product
  • 8. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 8 For example … Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Google Shopper Marketing Council Insights ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting 21 15 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 15% Researched a Product / Service Online Yesterday (2004-2010) % of Americans 20072004 Mobile is accelerating this trend 79% of smartphone owners use their device to assist with shopping at least 1x / month; of these shoppers: 44% make price comparisons 44% find promo offers 31% find product information 31% find product availability in-store 30% find product reviews 84% use to help shop while in-store Uber consumers3 The new face of retail
  • 9. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 9 Consumers have increasingly higher expectations of retailers and brandsAbilitytobuyonline, pickupin-store 50% 71% Abilitytoviewin-store inventoryonlineSource: Forrester, Accenture, Oracle ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Consumers expect … 73% Onlineandin-store pricingtobethesame 61% Onlineandin-store promotionstobethesame Responsewithin 2hoursofcomplaint onTwitter 52% Uber consumers3 The new face of retail
  • 10. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 10 These rising consumer expectations are putting pressure on retailers to evolve their go-to-market strategies to meet consumers’ needs Before… Today! Price Selection Convenience Availability Selection, Availability, Price, Convenience Free shipping / returns Multi-channel shopping, delivery, & returns Bigger selection Same / next day delivery Personalized experiences Uber consumers3 Impartial recommendations Consistent engagement Easy navigation Promotions Whatever, wherever, and whenever The new face of retail ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 11. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 11 Brands are becoming increasingly specialized across categories … and bigger is not always better The new face of retail Source: Company websites, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Smaller & focused is better 4 Food & beverage Personal care Apparel & accessories Other Energy / recovery Sport performance Healthy lifestyle Cosmetics Health & wellness Bath & body Outdoor apparel Focused lifestyle Active lifestyle Technology Fitness & clubs Fast food
  • 12. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 12 Brands and retailers are building more robust datasets of their customers; sophisticated data analytics can unlock substantial benefits via more tailored strategies (experiences, messaging, assortments, offers, etc.) The new face of retail Source: Experian, Company websites, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting One-to-one customer engagement 5 Transaction history Behavior by channel Demographic information Stated preferences Sophisticated data analytics Tailored offerings delivering enhanced value to consumers based on their specific needs Personalized messages perform 10x better in terms of revenue generated per message, than traditional batch and blast emails
  • 13. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 13 Deeper insights are enabling companies to establish stronger connections with consumers and deliver a more compelling value proposition The new face of retail Note: * As told to Advertising Age Source: Advertising Age, MGI, ICLP, Internet Retailer, Retail Touch Points, Company websites, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting One-to-one customer engagement 5  Shoedazzle steers customers in the direction of the product which they would most likely be interested in by collecting shopping preferences via a quiz prior to giving the customer product recommendations “… We ask them what they’re looking for next month… They tell [our client services team] what they’re looking for and ultimately that information informs the algorithm …” Chief Marketing Officer, Shoedazzle  Harrah’s considers its loyalty program “the vertebrae of the company” and utilizes customer data to personalize the guest experience before, during, and after visits “… We know if you like golf, chardonnay, down pillows, if you like your room close to the elevator, which properties you visit, what games you play, and which offers you redeem …” Former CMO, Harrah’s*  Amazon utilizes collaborative filtering to generate add-ons and adjacent product recommendations - The company attributes up to 30% of sales to its recommendation engine  Williams-Sonoma uses personalized e-mail targeting by combining shopper history with broader demographic information on ~60 million households (e.g., income, home values, and number of children) - The company cites a 10-18x better response rate of these targeted emails  Revolve Clothing allows shoppers to build their own digital boutiques, which they curate with assortments of their favorite products and designers from the store - The company cites that shoppers using the interactive feature are 6x more likely to convert than consumers that browse on the standard e-commerce site
  • 14. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 14 The traditional purchase path … The new face of retail Awareness Consideration Purchase Intent Omni-channel6 Source: L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 15. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 15 … has been dramatically changed by technology The new face of retail Educate Compare Reflect & share Omni-channel6 Awareness Consideration Purchase Intent ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 16. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 16 The lines between offline and online shopping experiences are blurring In-store Online 51% Research online and visit store to purchase 44% Research online and buy products online 17% Visit a store first, and then purchase online 32% Research online, visit store to view product, then return online to purchase Source: Google Think Insights ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting The new face of retailOmni-channel6
  • 17. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 17 Some examples of the way consumers are engaging outside the store … 52% of shoppers share retail-related posts via social media, of which: • 51% post pictures of items they’re interested in • 37% post items they’ve purchased • 29% post about coupons / sales 65% of tablet device owners used their device for shopping activities in Q3 2013 Blogs are most likely to influence a purchase after retail / brand sites; they rank favorably for trust, popularity & influence Source: Nielson, JiWIre, Shop.org, Business Insider ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting The new face of retailOmni-channel6
  • 18. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 18 The new face of retail Retailers are experiencing a significant channel shift as consumers increasingly utilize e-commerce in lieu of stores *Note: 2011 is the most recent year with annual figures; analysis excludes Building materials and supplies stores, Health and personal care stores, and General merchandise stores because of data limitations, and Nonstore retailers and Gas Stations because of relevance Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Store-based retail sales are not growing; virtually all growth in consumer spend is being captured by e-commerce Omni-channel6 7 2 4 5 7 8 9 18 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 U.S. online sales as percent of total retail sales* by product category (2013E) Percentage Computerand electronics Appareland accessories Books,music,video Auto&parts Furnitureandhome furnishings Healthandpersonal care Toysandhobby Foodandbeverage Total 82,046 133 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 In-store E-commerce Change in U.S. retail sales, 2006 – 2011* $M
  • 19. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 19 *Note: Traffic data is collected from 60,000 traffic-tracking devices installed at malls and large retailers Source: Wall Street Journal, ShopperTrak, L.E.K. research and analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting 18 21 25 34 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2013201220112010 Total mall and large retailer foot traffic for November and December 2010-2013 (ShopperTrak) Billions of Visits* -20% The new face of retail The widely cited fall in mall traffic is the most visible sign of the rapid change that retailers are facing Omni-channel6 • Fewer store visits and transactions • Non-destination categories (e.g., impulse, add-on purchases) particularly at risk • Stores are playing new roles  Traffic to U.S. retailers is declining, in large part due to a shift to digital tools and e-commerce - There is a lesser need to go to stores given other options for research and purchase  Shoppers also aren’t using physical stores to browse as much anymore - Shoppers visited an average of 5 stores per mall trip in 2007, vs. 3 stores in 2013  These trends continue to prevail and should drive even further e-commerce penetration
  • 20. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 20 The new face of retail To win business in this new multi-channel environment, companies must define what ‘omni-channel’ means for them and make investments to enable this Omni-channel6 Channel strategy Single view of the customer Organizational alignment Fulfillment / logistics Marketing Merchandising Increased: Traffic Engagement Sales Loyalty Seamless, holistic customer experience Omnichannel interactions Foundational enablers 1 2 3 4 5 6 ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 21. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 21 We believe that developing an omni-channel strategy is best done by considering the needs across the full consumer lifecycle The new face of retailOmni-channel6 Learn Research Purchase Support Share Consumer engagement lifecycle Product Whatever Whenever However Channels Marketing and tools Increase awareness Share and socialize Expand community Drive consideration and selection Post-purchase support Facilitate the purchase process Source: Company websites; FierceRetail; BusinessInsider ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 22. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 22 Engagement with traditional media continues to decline… The new face of retail Decline of traditional media 7 Source: Editor and Publisher Yearbook, Alliance for Audited Media, Nielsen Media Research ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting 4343 49 52 54 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 U.S. weekday newspaper circulation (2004-12) Millions of subscriptions 121008062004 -8 -9 -8 -9 -11 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 U.S. magazine single-copy sales (2008-12) Percent change in sales 121110092008 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12100806 U.S. broadcast television ratings (2004-12) Average rating per night 2004 CBS ABC NBC
  • 23. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 23 … however, the growth of digital provides retailers with increasing opportunities and formats to engage with consumers The new face of retail Decline of traditional media 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20122011201020092008200720062005 U.S. advertising revenue by media (2005 – 2012) Billions of dollars Newspaper Internet Radio Cable television Broadcast television Note: * “Social media advertising” encompasses all money spent on ad formats across social networks, including both display and native advertising Source: Pew Research Center, IAB, PWC, BIA / Kelsey ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting CAGR % (2005-2012) (1.1) 16.8 3.7 (12.1) (2.7) 0.0Total Marketers are still spending the same amount on advertising, but through different media 11 10 8 7 6 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 U.S. social media advertising growth (2012-17F)* YoY percent growth 17161514132012 Social media advertising is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~19% through 2017
  • 24. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 24 Retailers and brands are working hard to effectively realign their marketing strategies in this environment Marketing objectives Reactivate lapsed customers Build awareness Engage / retain customers Acquire new customers Stimulate purchases Marketing tools The new face of retail Decline of traditional media 7 How do you effectively deploy these tools? ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 25. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 25 The balance of power within the retail channel has also evolved dramatically The new face of retail Note: 1Excludes food, motor vehicle and parts dealers, and gasoline stations; 2Includes H&M, Inditex and American Apparel; 3IIncludes TJX, Ross Stores & Stein Mart; 4Includes mass merchants (e.g., Wal-Mart); 5Includes Dick’s Sporting Goods, Staples, Office Depot, Barnes & Nobles, PETCO, PetSmart, Toys R Us, Best Buy, Circuit City, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Guitar Center, Linens and Things & Borders Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, WSJ; TJX Investor Information; International Council of Shopping Centers; ICSC; L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Change in U.S. Retail Sales by Select Channels (2003-2013) 1 CAGR % Total Retail Sales 1 : 4.0% -2.0 2.6 3.1 3.7 5.1 5.4 6.9 7.1 11.7 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 Department Stores Grocery Big box specialty5 Off-Price Retail3 Fast Fashion2 Outlet Stores Drug Stores Dollar Stores Mass Merchants & Clubs4 • Growth supported by the entry of international retailers such as Zara, H&M and Uniqlo • U.S. sales at Zara more than tripled between 2007-12 and Uniqlo plans to expand its store count from ~20 currently to 200 by 2020 • Costco grew from ~430 to ~650 locations from 2003-13 • Walmart and Target successful in expanding geographically and driving traffic with super-center format • ~4,300 and ~2,800 stores added at Dollar General and Family Dollar, respectively, since 2003 • Growing market share by substantially expanding food & consumables offer, growing private label, and building destination categories • Subject to industry consolidation (e.g., Eckerd, Duane Reade) • Faced challenges in some categories (e.g. photography) which the category has sought to counter by placing more focus on grocery type items & increasingly fresh food • Competing with warehouse clubs and supercenters at the lower end • Premium / specialty segment (e.g., Whole Foods) seeing continued growth • More brands going direct with own stores and online • May/Federated merger resulted in net store closings • Many regional department stores have declared bankruptcy (e.g., Hacketts, Loehmann’s & Mervyn’s) • Model which delivers treasure hunt for top brands at great value has driven consistent growth, even through tough market conditions • TJX added ~650 stores between 2003 and 2013 and plans to add ~100 new locations across the U.S. in 2014 • Outlet center openings have grown from ~2 per year in 2008 to ~8 per year in 2011 • Center owners have relaxed or abandoned former radius restrictions • Channel has struggled to compete on the basis of breadth of product range since the emergence of online retailers such as Amazon • Littered with bankruptcies, e.g., Barnes & Noble, Linens and Things, Circuit City. Many others facing major challenges Channel shifts8
  • 26. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 26 The new face of retail Brands are increasingly going directly to the consumer Brands going direct to consumer 9  Forgoing the traditional wholesale route of selling through multi-brand retailers Many brands are… Source: L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting  Increasingly making websites more commercial and marketing / selling directly to consumers  Relying on Amazon’s Marketplace to increase awareness and tap into Amazon’s ~85 million unique monthly visitors  Building direct consumer relationships and engagement via social media, community outreach, content, and value-add services  Opening outlet stores to convey full brand representation and drive incremental sales of full-price and liquidation goods Significant incentives for brands to go direct include: higher margin capture, controlling customer relationship, and compensating for weaker points of physical wholesale distribution
  • 27. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 27 The new face of retail Source: SEC filings, MarketWatch, Company websites, Forbes, Seattle Times, Reuters, Business Week, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Brands across categories are pursuing global strategies to capitalize on macroeconomic tailwinds Geographic distribution of sales (Percent of 2012 sales) Retailer N. America Europe Asia ROW 68% 5% 8% 19% 48% 11% 38% 3% 64% 22% 14% - 42% 25% 16% 17% 70% 20% 10% 40% 13% 7% 40% 32% 39% 29% EXTRA! EXTRA! “Walmart to invest more in Mexico this year” “Tiffany & Co is embarking on major expansion plans, bringing its ubiquitous name to new areas, including India” “Ralph Lauren reaches worldwide audience with its Olympic made-in-America designs” “Going forward, market penetration in China and e-commerce growth look to be two of the biggest contributing growth factors for Nike” “This Bud’s for you, Brazil – AB InBev to introduce Budweiser as a premium brand in Latin America’s largest nation” International10
  • 28. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 28 Retailers are increasingly expanding to emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as the middle class in these geographies grows 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Size of worldwide middle class* population (2009-30F) Millions North America ~(2) Europe ~1 Middle East & N. Africa ~49 Sub-Saharan Africa ~83 Asia Pacific ~148 Central & S. America ~31 30F ~4,900 20F ~3,200 2009 ~1,800 CAGR% (2009-30F) The new face of retail Note: * Defined by Brookings Institution as households with daily expenditures between US$10-US$100 / person in purchasing power parity terms; North America includes U.S. and Canada only; Europe includes the EU5, Russia, Scandinavian countries as well as Eastern European countries; Asia Pacific includes China, India, other Asian countries as well as Oceania ; ** India 2012 data extrapolated Source: Brookings Institution, L.E.K. analysis ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting Europe & North America’s combined share falls from 54% to 20% of the total middle class population International10
  • 29. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 29 The new face of retail So, what are the implications? ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 30. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 30 In light of these trends, retailers and brands should consider the following:  Challenge the status quo and ask yourself, “Are we really delivering a compelling value proposition to the customer?”  Consider how you can position brands against distinct consumer segments and their needs to separate yourself from the competition  Embrace the hourglass economy and look to exploit opportunities at the top or bottom – don’t get caught in the middle  Find ways to activate key customer groups to take advantage of shifting income, age, and ethnicity demographics, as well as changing consumer expectations  Define what omni-channel means for you, and build a pragmatic plan to get there  Holistically embrace digital and rethink the go-to-market channel plan, including the role of stores, channel mix, links between digital and traditional stores, and the appropriate media mix to drive traffic and customer acquisition / loyalty  Build one-to-one relationships with your consumers and ‘own’ your brand engagement plan with them  Refine pricing and promotion frameworks to maximize total margin dollars and profitability  Evolve the organizational structure and capabilities to meet the realities of today’s business model  Determine whether international is an opportunity for you and, if so, start planning now The new face of retail 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Potential keys for success 8 9 10 ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting
  • 31. CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT 31  Do we have the right brand / product mix to compete in today’s market?  Do we have a robust consumer segmentation that helps drive corporate strategy?  Are we micro-targeting consumers? Do we even have the capability to?  How does our loyalty program differentiate in an increasingly crowded space?  Does our channel plan embrace technological changes and the role of digital? Is our store strategy aligned to demand and role shifts?  Do we have the capabilities, org structure, infrastructure, and incentives in place to win and support growth objectives?  How can we preserve profitability without losing share in an increasingly price-transparent environment?  Are there activities 'on the edge' of our core business that could drive differentiation, revenue and / or customer satisfaction?  Do we have an actionable plan to grow international? Companies are asking themselves a number of key questions, and taking action to evolve their businesses to win in this new market landscape The new face of retail Key questions to ask Potential areas to focus  Strategic customer segmentation and prioritization  One-to-one customer relationship management  Next-generation loyalty program  Market-based store network, role and footprint plan  Pricing and promotion optimization by objective, market, brand, etc.  Omni-channel definition and plan with clear priorities and timeline  In-store customer service best practices and training to deliver value to customer and increase conversion  Org structure and capabilities evolution  “Edge” strategy (e.g., adjacent categories, services)  International expansion (e.g., market selection, go-to-market planning, business optimization / distributor management, implementation) ©2014 L.E.K. Consulting