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The State Of Food Insecurity In The World 1999
1. food insecurity:
when people must live with hunger
and fear starvation
The state of 1999
food insecurity in the world
2. food insecurity:
when people must live with hunger
and fear starvation
The state of 1999
food insecurity in the world
3. About this report
his is the first edition of The State available on progress and reversals about food access with analysis of data
T of Food Insecurity in the World. It
provides the latest estimates of
the number of chronically hungry
people in the developing world and
introduces the first comparable estimates
during the 1990s and highlights countries
that have achieved the greatest gains or
suffered the most severe setbacks over
the past two decades.
In addition, the report analyses some
about weight and height of young children.
Finally it draws lessons from what has
been learned thus far and offers some
pointers for the way ahead.
The State of Food Insecurity in the
ever made of the number of people who go of the underlying factors that contributed World draws on FAO’s ongoing work
hungry in the industrialized countries and most to gains and setbacks in these programme to monitor and analyse food
countries in transition. countries and examines the impact of insecurity and the nutritional status of
This and subsequent editions of The short-term “shocks”, such as war, people worldwide. This work represents
State of Food Insecurity in the World natural disaster or financial crisis. It part of FAO's contribution to the Food
will serve as regular progress reports on also looks at national efforts to identify Insecurity and Vulnerability Information
global and national efforts to reach the population groups particularly prone and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) initiative
goal set by the World Food Summit in 1996 to food insecurity and malnutrition. that is being established at global and
– to reduce the number of undernourished And it probes the differences in our national levels (see box).
people in the world by half by the year understanding of hunger and nutritional
2015. The report provides the first data status that result from comparing data
Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems
In order to take effective action to reduce hunger, stakeholders IAWG-FIVIMS
and decision-makers need reliable, detailed information about
the extent of the problem and the people it affects. The World membership
Food Summit mandated the establishment of a Food Insecurity
and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems programme
to provide that information. The FIVIMS initiative draws on many Australian Agency for International Development (AUSAID)
existing information systems, such as crop forecasting and early Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
warning systems, household food security and nutritional German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)
information systems, and vulnerability assessment and mapping United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
systems. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
FIVIMS operates on both national and global levels. Nationally, International Labour Organisation (ILO)
it provides a link for existing information systems that gather United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
and analyse relevant data, ranging from health and climate to (UNDESA)
markets and household food security. Globally, it is being Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
coordinated by an inter-agency working group (IAWG), with FAO United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
as its secretariat. The IAWG supports the national-level systems United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
and is working to establish a common database and information United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
exchange network. Its members include United Nations United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
agencies, bilateral aid agencies and international or non- World Bank (WB)
governmental organizations. World Food Programme (WFP)
World Health Organization (WHO)
The immediate objectives of FIVIMS are to: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Administrative Committee on Coordination/Subcommittee
• increase attention to food security issues; on Nutrition (ACC/SCN)
• improve the quality of food security-related data and analysis; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
• promote donor collaboration on food security information Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
systems at country level; Helen Keller International (HKI)
• encourage better action programmes on poverty and hunger; Save the Children Fund (SCF/UK)
• improve access to information through networking and sharing. World Resources Institute (WRI)
2 The state of food insecurity in the world 1999
4. Contents
4 Foreword
Towards the World Food Summit target
6 Undernourishment around the world
6 Counting and locating hungry people
10 Progress and setbacks in developing countries
11 Nutritional status and vulnerability
11 Well-being of young children
13 Incidence of malnutrition in vulnerable areas
15 Vulnerable people – who and why
16 Profiles of vulnerability
18 Environmental potential and constraints
20 Dynamics of change
20 Factors that bring about change
21 Economic growth spurs improvements in food security status
for most Asian nations
22 Mixed picture of progress and setback characterizes Latin America
and the Caribbean
23 War-ravaged Afghanistan loses ground while Morocco leads
good performers
24 Several West African nations register gains but problems grow
worse elsewhere in Africa
25 Recent shocks: floods, drought, war and financial collapse
threaten progress
28 The way ahead
Meeting the challenge
29 Tables
The state of food insecurity in the world 1999 3
5. Foreword
Towards the World Food Summit target
hree years ago, leaders from progress is required, averaging geographically isolated ethnic
T 186 countries gathered in
Rome and made a solemn
commitment – to halve the
number of hungry people by the year
2015. Is the world living up to the
reductions of at least 20 million a
year in the developing world.
Hunger is often associated with
developing countries. While that is
true, this report provides statistical
minorities, we cannot forget that they
are human beings, with individual
needs and aspirations. In poor
villages and neighbourhoods across
the world, the scene is the same:
promise it made at the 1996 World evidence that the problem is not people working from sunrise to
Food Summit? limited to developing countries. sunset dealing with harsh climates,
New estimates for 1995/97 show For the first time, FAO presents tired earth and the effects of fragile
that around 790 million people in the aggregate estimates of the number economies, labouring constantly to
developing world do not have enough of undernourished in developed provide for themselves and their
to eat. This is more than the total countries. The resulting figure, families – striving for little more than
populations of North America and 34 million people, confirms that even enough food to keep themselves alive.
Europe combined. The “continent” of developed countries are confronted That is why we must focus not only
the hungry includes men, women with the challenge of overcoming food on abstract global numbers but on
and children who may never reach insecurity. Although many of these the faces and places that make up
their full physical and mental 34 million people live in countries that those numbers. In calculations and
potential because they do not have have been undergoing major political predictions that use variables of
enough to eat – many of them may and economic transition in the 1990s, population growth, output rates,
even die because they have been pockets of hunger are to be found in declining resource bases, political
denied the basic human right to food. all parts of the world. changes, devastation from diseases
This state of affairs is unacceptable. It is my conviction that there is no or the effects of natural and
Yes, the number of undernourished reason not to have a hunger-free manmade disasters, we must always
people has decreased by 40 million world some time in the next century. remember that we are talking about
since 1990/92, the period to which The world already produces enough people – individuals who, given the
the estimates of 830 to 840 million food to feed the people who inhabit it chance, have the potential to make
cited at the Summit refer. But we today. And it could produce more. significant contributions to the world
cannot afford to be complacent. A However, unless deliberate action is around them. But in order to reach
closer look at the data reveals that taken at all levels, the chances are their potential, they need and deserve
in the first half of this decade a group that hunger and malnutrition will a life free from hunger.
of only 37 countries achieved continue in the foreseeable future. New technologies allow us to link
reductions totalling 100 million. But, before effective action can be national information systems and
Across the rest of the developing taken, we need to know who the establish global networks, to
world, the number of hungry people hungry and vulnerable are, where examine an entire ocean or one drop
actually increased by almost they live, and why they have not been of water, to punch buttons and create
60 million. able to improve their situations. graphs and flow charts that show us
The current rate of progress – an The numbers are 790 million in instantly and clearly the kind of
average reduction of around 8 million developing countries, and 34 million progress being made. Knowledge not
a year – falls squarely within the in developed countries, but we must only gives us power, it gives us
trajectory of “business as usual”. If put faces on the numbers. insight and direction. With the
the pace is not stepped up, more than Whether it is the victims of civil establishment of the Food Insecurity
600 million people will still go to conflict or herders who suffer and Vulnerability Information and
sleep hungry in the developing because their pastureland is Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) initiative,
countries in 2015. To achieve the disappearing, whether it is the urban we are expanding our ability to
Summit goal, a much faster rate of poor living on national welfare or the gather, analyse and share knowledge
4 The state of food insecurity in the world 1999
6. Number of undernourished in the developing world: observed and projected ranges compared to the
World Food Summit target
1 000 1 000
Millions Millions
900 900
800 800
Range around the point
Range around the point the
estimates reported at
estimates reported at the
700 World Food Summit 700
World Food Summit
Range around the projected
Range around the projected the
figure for 2010 reported at
figure for 2010 reported at the
World Food Summit
World Food Summit FAO estimates of the number of undernourished
600 Range for 1996 implied by 600
Range for 1996 implied by people in the world are necessarily based on
the projection for 2010
the projection for 2010 imperfect information. As better data become
available the estimates are revised retrospectively.
Range around the
Range around the2015 of
extrapolation to Range estimates therefore provide a more reliable
500 extrapolation to 2015 of 500
the projection for 2010 illustration of the number of undernourished over
the projection for 2010 time. The estimated range for past, projected and
World Food Summit
World Food Summit
Target target paths is based on a range of 5 percent above
Target and below the past, projected and target numbers
400 considered by the World Food Summit in 1996. 400
Point estimates
Point estimates Within these ranges, the most recently calculated
prepared in 1999
prepared in 1999 point estimates are shown.
300 300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
that can guide future initiatives to actions undertaken and goals set at to around 400 million by 2015, as well
increase access to food for all. the local, national and regional levels, as to reduce by half or more the
The work of FIVIMS is essential as where individuals will be able to see number of 34 million hungry in
we enter the new millennium. We the impact of their involvement. developed countries. But as we work
must devise and put into action In the absence of new investment towards the goal, we must remain
policies and programmes to enable and policy efforts at all levels, aware that we cannot stop when we
governments, international and non- current technological and socio- reach it. Because, even that number is
governmental organizations, economic trends are likely to continue. far too big. Even one hungry person is
communities and individuals to The number of undernourished people one too many.
overcome the obstacles that stand in may continue to decline ... but only
the way of what should be a birthright slowly and only in some regions of the
for every one of the 6 000 million world. Deliberate and targeted
people on this planet – enough to eat. measures and new investments are
As we have seen, the progress fundamental to improve the trend.
being made against hunger in the The reduction to 790 million hungry
world is uneven. It is clear that there people in the developing countries is a Jacques Diouf
is no global formula for success. The beginning. Our stated goal is to Director-General
success must come from specific reduce that number, at the minimum, FAO
The state of food insecurity in the world 1999 5
7. Undernourishment around the world
Counting and locating hungry people
lmost 800 million people in the
A developing world do not have
Prevalence of undernourishment in both developing and developed countries
enough to eat. Another 34 million
people in the industrialized
countries and countries in transition also
suffer from chronic food insecurity. If all
the world’s undernourished people were
gathered together, the population of the
continent of the hungry would dwarf that
of every other continent except Asia.
The hunger of these people is not a
transitory condition. It is chronic. It is
debilitating. Sometimes it is deadly. It
blights the lives of all who are affected
and undermines national economies and
development processes where it is found
on a large scale, as is the case across
much of the developing world.
The figures, tables and map in this
section depict the scale of the problem
worldwide at the turn of the millennium. Measuring and monitoring prevalence
They also show changes that have taken Prevalence of undernourishment is measured by the
place in 98 developing countries between share of a country’s total population that is
1990/92 and 1995/97, the most recent undernourished. The higher the prevalence, the more
period for which information is available. widespread the problem. To help analyse and monitor
That information highlights the fact progress, the following five prevalence categories have
that progress has been made. On a global been established:
scale, the gains have been sufficient to
bring the total number of undernourished Category % undernourished Description
people in the developing world below the
1 2.5 Extremely low
800 million figure cited at the World Food
Summit in 1996. 2 2.5-4 Very low
The gains are encouraging, but far 3 5-19 Moderately low
from satisfactory. More detailed analysis 4 20-34 Moderately high
confirms that the momentum is too slow
5 •35 Very high
and the progress too uneven to achieve
the goal set by the Summit and reduce the
total to around 400 million by the year No data
2015. In fact, the number of hungry
people is growing in many parts of
the world.
Small increases or decreases in the A note on methodology – how the numbers are calculated
number of undernourished people from
one year to the next may simply reflect Chronic food insecurity is represented by data about numbers of people and the amount
transitory conditions that claim our estimates of the number of people whose food of food available to them.
attention but do not touch the intake does not provide enough calories to meet 2. Undernutrition is determined from data
fundamental problem. Significant, their basic energy requirements – i.e. the about people's weight, height and age.
lasting change in the number is the undernourished. Measurements of nutritional Ratios calculated from these measurements
appropriate indicator of progress or status or undernutrition, on the other hand, are indicate the outcome not only of inadequate
setbacks in banishing chronic hunger based on information about people's actual food intake but also of poor health and
physiological condition. sanitation conditions that may prevent people
from our world.
from deriving full nutritional benefit from
In practice, these are two distinct and useful what they eat.
measures derived from very different analytical
approaches. The two approaches are complementary, as
1. Undernourishment is estimated from existing illustrated:
6 The state of food insecurity in the world 1999
8. Food intake Undernourishment The method is described in detail in The Sixth distribution of the food supply within the
World Food Survey, published by FAO in 1996. country. This gives the percentage of the
Very briefly it relies on: population whose food intake falls below the
Physiological
Undernutrition 1. calculating the total number of calories minimum requirement;
condition
available from local food production, trade and 6. multiplying this percentage by the size of the
stocks; population to obtain the number of
Health, sanitation 2. calculating an average minimum calories undernourished people.
and care requirement for the total population based on
the number of calories needed by different age These calculations produce an estimate of the
The numbers cited in this section refer to and gender groups and the proportion of the number of people in each country whose
estimates of undernourishment based on a few population each group represents; average calorie intake falls below the minimum
commonly available types of information: 3. dividing the total number of calories available required to keep the body going and perform
■ food production, trade and stocks; by the number of people in the country; light activity. Adding these numbers together
■ figures for total population and distribution by 4. factoring in a coefficient for distribution to yields a global estimate of the total number of
age and gender; take account of inequality in access to food; undernourished people.
■ data on consumption distribution. 5. combining this information to construct the
The state of food insecurity in the world 1999 7
9. Undernourishment around the world
Counting and locating hungry people
n overwhelming majority of the
A undernourished people in
developing countries live in Asia
and the Pacific. This region is home
to 70 percent of the total population of the
developing world. And it accounts for
Undernourishment in developed countries
First estimates indicate that around 34 million undernourished people live in the industrialized
countries and countries in transition. More than three-quarters of them – 26 million – are
concentrated in the countries in transition of Eastern Europe and the area of the former USSR.
almost two-thirds (526 million) of the The remaining 8 million live in industrialized countries.
undernourished people as well. India alone
has more undernourished people The proportion of undernourished people is very low or extremely low in all industrialized countries
(204 million) than all of sub-Saharan Africa and 12 of the 27 countries in transition. But significantly higher rates exist in 15 of the countries
combined. With India’s neighbours added in transition, mainly those belonging to the area of the former USSR and the former Federal
in, the South Asian subregion accounts Republic of Yugoslavia. Prevalence categories for all developed countries are shown in the map
on page 6.
for more than one-third of the world
total (284 million). Another 30 percent
(240 million) live in Southeast and East Asia, Undernourished in developed countries, 1995/97 (millions)
more than 164 million in China. REGION TOTAL UNDERNOURISHED NUMBER OF
Sub-Saharan Africa is home to almost a POPULATION (%) PEOPLE
quarter of the developing world’s hungry
Industrialized countries 876 2.5 8
people. The problem varies in severity
Countries in transition 413 6 26
across the continent. Although West Africa
of which: Eastern Europe 121 4 4
has the largest total population of any of the
African subregions, it has the fewest Former USSR 292 7 22
undernourished. By contrast, East Africa,
with a slightly smaller total population, has
more than twice as many undernourished chronically hungry people live in countries Around 570 million undernourished
people. The numbers in Central and where the prevalence of undernourishment people – almost three-quarters of the
Southern Africa are also proportionately is very high (35 percent or more). And in all world total – live in countries where the
larger, although both have much smaller but three of these countries, the proportion prevalence of hunger is neither very low
total populations. and number of hungry people have been (below 5 percent) nor very high (above
As these figures suggest, in addition to increasing for some time. 35 percent). While Asian countries
looking at the numbers of people afflicted by The problem is especially severe in are about equally divided between
hunger, it is also important to consider the Central, East and Southern Africa. Almost the “moderately low (5-19 percent) and
proportion of the population affected on a half (44 percent) of the 340 million people moderately high (20-34 percent)
national and regional basis. This analytical living in the 26 countries of these subregions categories, most countries in Latin America
approach spotlights areas where problems are undernourished. Only six countries and the Caribbean fall in the former.
are most severe. It also helps identify groups elsewhere in the world have such high Six million undernourished people live in
of countries that may share common prevalence rates – Afghanistan, countries where the prevalence is very or
problems and common priorities for action. Bangladesh, Haiti, the Democratic People’s extremely low, mainly in the Near East
Overall, more than a quarter of the world’s Republic of Korea, Mongolia and Yemen. (see chart below).
Proportions of undernourished in developing countries, by category, 1990/92 and 1995/97
Category 1: Category 2: Category 3:
2.5% undernourished 2.5-4% undernourished 5-19% undernourished
%
60
40
20
0
LIBYA
TUNISIA
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
KOREA, REP
SYRIA
ARGENTINA
MALAYSIA
LEBANON
TURKEY
JORDAN
KUWAIT
EGYPT
URUGUAY
SAUDI ARABIA
TRINIDAD TOBAGO
CHILE
ALGERIA
MOROCCO
ECUADOR
MEXICO
MAURITIUS
INDONESIA
IRAN
MYANMAR
COSTA RICA
NIGERIA
GABON
SURINAME
BRAZIL
EL SALVADOR
JAMAICA
GHANA
COLOMBIA
PARAGUAY
CHINA
MAURITANIA
SWAZILAND
CÔTE D’IVOIRE
VENEZUELA
IRAQ
BENIN
GUYANA
GUATEMALA
PANAMA
SENEGAL
VIET NAM
PAKISTAN
CUBA
PERU
8 The state of food insecurity in the world 1999
10. Total population and number of under- Number and proportion of undernourished, by region and
nourished, by region, 1995/97 (millions) subregion, 1995/97
China Number of undernourished Proportion of undernourished
(millions) (%)
200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50
India China
Other East Asia*
Southeast Asia
Other Asia and Pacific
India
Other South Asia
Latin America and Caribbean North America
Grey bars: Central America
total population Caribbean
Near East and North Africa Coloured bars: South America
number Near East
undernourished North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa West Africa
Central Africa
East Africa
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 Southern Africa
*including Papua New Guinea
Number of undernourished, by region, Number of undernourished by prevalence category and by region,
1995/97 (millions) 1995/97
Categories 1 and 2: Category 3: Category 4: Category 5:
5% 5-19% 20-34% *35%
Sub-Saharan China 164 Total: 6 million Total: 287 million Total: 282 million Total: 216 million
Africa 180
Near East and
North Africa 33
Latin America
and Caribbean
53
India 204
China Other Asia and Pacific Near East and North Africa
Other Asia and
Pacific 157 India Latin America and Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa
Grey bars: 1990/92 Coloured bars: 1995/97
Category 4: Category 5:
20-34% undernourished *35% undernourished %
80
60
40
20
0
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
SRI LANKA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LESOTHO
UGANDA
BURKINA FASO
NICARAGUA
GUINEA
CAMEROON
CENTRAL AFRICAN REP
SIERRA LEONE
KOREA, DPR
CONGO, DEM REP
AFGHANISTAN
SUDAN
HONDURAS
NEPAL
INDIA
PHILIPPINES
TOGO
BOLIVIA
THAILAND
BOTSWANA
GAMBIA
MALI
NAMIBIA
LAOS
CAMBODIA
CONGO, REP
BANGLADESH
YEMEN
RWANDA
MALAWI
NIGER
ZIMBABWE
MADAGASCAR
TANZANIA
KENYA
LIBERIA
ANGOLA
ZAMBIA
CHAD
MONGOLIA
ETHIOPIA
HAITI
MOZAMBIQUE
BURUNDI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
The state of food insecurity in the world 1999 9
11. Undernourishment around the world
Progress and setbacks in developing countries
ccording to the most recent data in the ranks of the undernourished, the total Summit target. Several of these already had
A available, the number of
undernourished people in the
developing world has been reduced
to 790 million, 40 million less than the
number estimated at the time of the
in 2015 will be 638 million. That figure
would represent no more than the
business-as-usual outcome that was
branded as unacceptable by the Summit.
Progress in combating hunger has also
very low or insignificant levels of chronic
hunger to begin with. But past performance
has not been sufficient in 56 countries.
The prospects are not all bleak,
however. Many countries, including several
World Food Summit in 1996. The decline been very uneven. Between 1991 and 1996, of the large countries that dominate
in the percentage of people who are the proportion of the population going global totals, have registered steady
undernourished is also significant – from hungry increased in 27 countries, including improvements. And some have scored
20 percent in the 1990/92 reference period many of those where the problem was remarkable gains. Led by five countries
used at the Summit to slightly less than already most severe. In another 32 countries, from West Africa, 13 countries decreased
18 percent in 1995/97. the proportion either remained steady or the proportion of hungry people in their
These gains do not appear to be either shrank too slowly to offset growth in the total populations by more than one percentage
transitory or anomalous. In fact, they are population. Only 37 countries succeeded in point a year over the 16-year period.
consistent with a steady downward trend, bringing down the proportion rapidly enough Valuable lessons can be learned from their
as confirmed by a look at the figures for to reduce the absolute number. Because this experiences as well as from the hardships
1979/81, when almost 920 million people group included several large countries, its that have beset countries where the
went hungry, amounting to around reduction of 97 million outweighed the proportion of undernourished soared over
30 percent of the population of the increase of 59 million among the other the same period. A detailed examination of
developing world. countries, resulting in a net reduction of factors contributing to progress and
But the pace of progress has not been about 40 million for the developing world problems in the countries that registered
fast enough to reach the goal of around as a whole. the largest changes in each of the four
400 million by 2015 set by the Summit. In Over the longer period, between 1980 regions that make up the developing world
fact, if the present trend continues, with and 1996, only 40 countries reduced hunger can be found in the section entitled
reductions of approximately 8 million a year quickly and steadily enough to meet the Dynamics of change.
Undernourishment in countries where hunger is decreasing either fast enough or insufficiently to reach the World
Food Summit Target, 1980-1996
Number of countries Number of undernourished people (millions)
Making progress Losing ground Making progress Losing ground
Sufficient
Asia and Pacific decrease Asia and Pacific
8 2 4 4 432 1 75 18
Stable and
Latin America and Caribbean low Latin America and Caribbean
7 1 6 10 1 6
Insufficient 28 19
Near East and North Africa decrease Near East and North Africa
6 6 1 3 1 6
Increase 9 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
10 6 22 21 14 114
Countries in each region with the largest reductions Countries with the largest reductions and increases in
and increases in undernourishment, 1980-1996 undernourishment, 1980-1996
Making progress Losing ground Making progress Losing ground
Asia and Pacific
Ghana
Cambodia Korea, DPR Burkina Faso
Latin America and Caribbean Gambia
Honduras Cuba Nigeria
Mali
Near East and North Africa
Afghanistan
Morocco Afghanistan Korea, DPR
Sub-Saharan Africa Burundi
Ghana Burundi Madagascar
Mongolia
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Change in the proportion of people who are undernourished, 1980-1996 (%) Change in the proportion of people who are undernourished, 1980-1996 (%)
10 The state of food insecurity in the world 1999