ICN2-Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns
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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns. Franco Sassi PhD (OECD – Health Division) Rome, 14th November 2013
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ICN2-Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns
- 1. Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns Franco Sassi OECD – Health Division PREPARATORY TECHNICAL MEETING FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy 13-15 November 2013
- 2. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14th November 2013
- 3. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs
- 4. Leading Risk Factors for Health Attributable Mortality, 2004 Source: WHO, 2009
- 5. Deaths from NCDs Worldwide, by Income Group 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2004 2015 2030 High income Higer-middle income Lower-middle income Low income Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008
- 6. Obesity: a Global Epidemic India China Russia OECD Brazil S Africa UK Mexico 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % of adult population • In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas • Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US • Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China
- 7. The OECD/WHO CDP Model Fibre adequate fibre intake low fibre intake Physical activity adequate physical act insuff .physical act Body mass index normal weight pre-obesity obesity Blood pressure normal hypertension Cholesterol normal hypercholesterolemia Glycaemia normal diabetes Cancers Stroke Ischemic heart disease Fat low fat intake medium fat intake high fat intake Socio-economic status upper lower
- 8. A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package OECD Countries Emerging Economies Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children Government regulation of food advertising to children Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures School-based interventions Canada Europe Brazil China 24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap
- 9. What Can Prevention Achieve?
- 10. Prevention Keeps Healthy Years of Life Free of NCDs Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Million life years Time (years) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Million life years Time (years) Europe China Brazil Canada
- 11. An Affordable Prevention Package 5 4 3 2 1 0 1.2 0.4 India China Brazil South Africa Russian Federation 4.5 Mexico US$ per head High blood pressure & cholesterol Unhealthy diet and physical inactivity Alcohol use Tobacco use
- 12. Prevention is a Good Investment Impact on Health Expenditure 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 0 10 20 30 40 50 $ / capita Time (years) Europe Canada Brazil China
- 13. % Decrease Required in Fat Consumption COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021) Argentina -0.9 Australia -1.4 Brazil -0.9 Canada -1.2 Chile -0.9 China -0.8 European Union -1.1 India -0.7 Japan -0.8 Korea -0.8 Mexico -1.4 New Zealand -1.4 Russian Federation -0.8 United States -1.4
- 14. Scenario 1 Results % Atlantic beef world price 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Cheese world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Vegetable oil world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Coarse grains world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
- 15. SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN
- 16. Scenario2 Results 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Bovine consumption and production (kt) baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 % Consumption Production USA BRA E27 CHN
- 17. 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Scenario2 Results Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t) baseline scenario 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
- 18. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Scenario2 Results Vegetable oil world price baseline scenario 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
- 19. Key Policy Implications • Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues • Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy • Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains • Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term
Notas do Editor
- Apply a shock Δi for a period of ten years : values given health department model
- Decrease by 30 % at the end of the period of the simulation
- Cross-sectional costs are higher for obese patients; obese patients cost 30% more than normal-weight patients But lower costs in a life perspective as lower life-expectancy Obesity accounts for 1 to 3% of total health expenditure in most countries and up to 10% in the US Obesity accounts for up to 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China