This presentation was prepared by Mr. Benjamin DeRidder and Mr. Lamourdia Thiombiano (Deputy Regional Representative for Africa), and it was presented by Mr Thiombiano during the first plenary at the 2nd International Climate Change and Population Conference on Africa at Legon university in Accra, Ghana. © FAO: http://www.fao.org

1. Climate Change: Myth or reality?
Potential impact on Food security in Africa
2nd International Climate Change and Population
Conference on Africa
3-7 June 2013, Accra, Ghana
Mr. B. De Ridder
Dr L. Thiombiano
FAO, Regional Office for Africa

2. Climate change or climatic change
• Any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate
elements sustained over several decades or longer.
• Climate change is the change in average weather over time and
over a region. It includes long-term, smaller changes in
temperature, wind patterns and precipitation. Climate change may
be due to natural and/or anthropogenic processes.
– Natural climate changes have been part of the earth behavior
– Long term changes are still not well understood
What is Climate Change (CC) ???

3. What is Climate Change (CC) ???

4. What is Climate Change (CC) ???
Climate Change Skeptics and arguments
 No consensus
 Unreliable computer models
 Sea level rise is under discussion
 Stabilizing of global surface temperatures
 Insufficient local measuring stations
 Uncertainties

5. What is Climate Change (CC) ???
Confirmed: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC)
1. Markedly increased since 1750 of global atmospheric
concentrations of green house gases (GHGs); warming of the
climate system is unequivocal.
2. Rise of Air and ocean temperatures; snow and ice melting
worldwide and sea level rising.
3. Significant increase of Precipitation in parts of North and
South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.
4. The Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of
Southern Asia are becoming drier.

6. What are the Challenges?
• Understanding the Phenomena the most
precisely
• Modeling and Planning
• Preparedness
• Actions / Challenges and Opportunities

7. Peter Holmgren, FAO
3 November 2009

8. Regional Context
• 12 % of the world’s population and 33% by 2050
• > 60% (414 million) in rural areas
• Rural areas livelihoods depend essentially on agriculture
• Agriculture : major driver of economy and food security
• SSA (excluding SA) agriculture employed 62% of the
population and generated 27% of GDP
• 97% of rainfed agriculture with high risks

9. Climate Change Projections from IPCC
• CO2 enrichment
• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 C in current century
• Arid areas will become drier, humid areas wetter
• Increase in droughts and floods (frequency and intensity)
• Global mean sea levels will rise from 9cm to 88cm in the
period 1990 to 2100
• High rate of desertification and soil salinization in countries
with arid zones

10. Impacts on food availability
• Potential for reduced agricultural production
• Temporal effects on local markets as well as market prices of imports
Impacts on food accessibility
• Increase in food prices, loss of farm income
• Changed fish farm and fish catch opportunities
CC Potential impacts on Food Security

11. CC Potential impacts on Food Security
Impacts on food utilization
• Changes in dietary patterns and new challenges to food safety
Impacts on food system stability
• Greater instability of food supply
• Need for increased capacity and expenditure to preserve food
for adequate response to large-scale disasters

12. Climate Change Impacts
Changes in crop suitability

13. Climate Change Impacts
Reduced productivity due to changes in climate patterns
Projected changes in Sub-Saharan African crop
yields due to climate change, 2050.

14. Climate Change Impacts
Change in length of growing cycle
Thornton P K et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:117-136
Toward 2090, taking 18
climate models
 Four degree rise

15. Climate Change Impacts
Increased risks due to extreme climatic events
Causes/hazards of high mortality risk in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Source: Diley et al., 2005

16. Climate Change Impacts
Increased risks due to sea level rise
African cities at risk due to sea-level rise (including
St. Denis in Reunion) (Taken from UNHABITAT,
2008).1

17. Climate Change Impacts
Additional price increase due to weather shocks
Source: Oxfam (2012) based
on D. Willenbockel (2012)

18. Challenges towards 2050
• Increased SSA population: 2 billion by 2050 ; 1.1 billion in urban
areas within SSA (from 300 million in 2012)
• Changing diets, high exposure settlements, water and land
competition
Population &
CC hotspots

19. Challenges towards 2050
• Land availability vs sustainable intensification

20. Challenges towards 2050
• Increased Emissions from
agriculture and land-use
changes 30%
Data from Vermeulen et al. 2012; US-EPA, 2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007
Reality : highest CO2
concentrations since Pliocene

21. Nine major agriculture systems at risk
Production Systems Location at risk Risks
RAINFED
CROPPING
Highlands
Densely populated highlands :
Rift Valley, Ethiopian plateau,
Southern Africa
Erosion, land degradation, reduced productivity of soil and
water, increased intensity of flood events, accelerated out-
migration, high prevalence and food insecurity
RAINFED CROPPING
Semi-arid tropics
Smallholder farming in
Western, Eastern and Southern
Africa savannah region
Agro-pastoral systems in Sahel,
Horn of Africa
Desertification, reduction of production potential, increased
crop failures due to climate variability and temperatures,
increased conflicts, high prevalence of poverty and food
insecurity, out-migration.
RAINFED CROPPING
Subtropical
Densely populated and
intensively
cultivated areas
Desertification, reduced rainfall and river runoff, and
increased occurrence of droughts and floods reduction of
production potential, increased crop failures, high prevalence
food insecurity, further land fragmentation, accelerated out-
migration..
RAINFED CROPPING
Temperate
Intensive farming in Southern
Africa
Pollution of soils and aquifers, loss of biodiversity, degradation
of freshwater ecosystems, increased crop failure due to
increased climate variability in places.
IRRIGATED
Rice-based
systems
Sub-Saharan Africa,
Madagascar, Western Africa,
Eastern Africa
Need for frequent rehabilitations, poor return on investment,
stagnating productivity, large-scale land acquisition, land
degradation.

22. Nine major agriculture systems at risk
Production Systems Location at risk Risks
IRRIGATED
Other crops
RIVER BASINS
Large contiguous irrigation systems from
rivers in dry areas, including Northern Africa
AQUIFERS
Groundwater-dependent irrigation systems in
interior arid plains: North Africa
Increased water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and
environmental services, desertification, expected
reduction in water availability and shift in seasonal flows
due to climate change in several place
Loss of buffer role of aquifers, desertification, loss of
agriculture land, reduced recharge due to climate change
in places.
RANGELANDS Pastoral and grazing lands, fragile soils in
Sahel, North Africa
Desertification, out-migration, land abandonment, food
insecurity, intensification of conflicts.
FORESTS Tropical forest-cropland interface in Central
Africa
Cropland encroachment, slash-and-burn, leading to loss
of ecosystems services of forests, land degradation.
Other locally
important
subsystems
DELTAS AND COASTAL AREAS
Nile delta. Bight of Benin
SMALL ISLANDS
PERI-URBAN AGRICULTURE
Loss of agricultural land and groundwater, health-related
problems, sea-level rise, higher frequency of cyclones
(Eastern Africa), increased incidence of floods.
Total loss of freshwater aquifers, increased cost of
freshwater production, increased climate change related
damages (hurricanes, sea-level rise, floods.
Pollution, health-related problems for consumers and
producers, competition for land.

23. Adaptation and mitigation
to ensure food security
• Ecosystem approach to capture the synergies and manage the trade-offs among food
security, sustainable development, environmental sustainability and climate change
 Sustainable Land Management
 Integrated Water Resource Management
 Integrated Mountain Development
 Integrated Ecosystem Management
• Focus on food security and growth
• Design participatory, gender-sensitive and local activities
• Build partnership among stakeholders
• Support transboundary collaboration
M Increased productivity
Increased
resilience
Reduced GHG
emissions
Win-win adaptation  
Win-win mitigation  
Climate-smart agriculture   

24. Climate-smart agriculture
with 3 pillars

25. Examples of FAO Support
Forestry
• UN Collaborative Programme on reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation : UN REDD) in DRC; and
REDD+ in Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire
• Sustainable Forest Management in Cameroon
• Assistance to the Revision of National Forestry Policy, Legislation
and Institutional Reorganization
Disaster Risk Management and Reduction
• Strengthen food security, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and
capacity in areas prone to climatic shocks and natural hazards in
Malawi and Mozambique
• Improved Community Drought Response and Resilience in Kenya

26. FAO Support
Fisheries
• Support for sustainable climate change adaptation in marine artisanal
fisheries communities in West Africa
• Strategic Framework for fisheries, aquaculture and climate change
• Climate change implications for fishing communities in the Lake
Chad Basin
Cross-cutting
• Identification of indigenous knowledge on adaptation strategies
 SSA wide study
 field work in Upper West Region of Ghana in collaboration with
the Ghanaian Environmental Protection Agency

27. Promotion of conservation
agriculture for SARD and food
security in Southern and Eastern
Africa
Climate Smart Agriculture: Capturing
the Synergies between Mitigation,
adaptation and food security
UN Collaborative
Programme on
reducing emissions
from deforestation
and forest
degradation (UN
REDD)
Drought
Recovery and
Smallholder
Adaptation
Programme in
Djibouti and
Somalia
Strengthen food
security Disaster
Risk Reduction
(DRR) and capacity
in areas prone to
climatic shocks
and natural
hazards in Malawi
and Mozambique
Support for sustainable
climate change
adaptation in marine
artisanal fisheries
communities in West
Africa
Integrating climate
resilience into
agricultural and
pastoral production
for food security in
vulnerable rural areas
through the Farmers
Field School approach
Up Scaling
Conservation
Agriculture for
Improved Food
Security Using the
CAADP Framework
Examples of FAO
support

28. Opportunities
to enhance food security
Carbon credits:
• Carbon sequestration and mitigation as well as carbon revenues as a
co-benefit, not as a priority
Example: Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project
 NGO Vi Agroforestry
 Adoption of Land and forests sustainable Management practices
 Already on 12,000 ha
 60% of annual payment to farmer groups
 BioCarbon Fund purchases 150,000t emissions reductions

29. • Develop and implement robust policies to mainstream climate change
adaptation and mitigation into national, and sub-national development
plans
• Increase public and private investments in agriculture and rural
transformation
• Develop database with modeling and early warning and monitoring
systems (CLIMDEM? In AU); role of Academia
• Identify, promote and disseminate relevant agricultural technologies
with ecosystem approaches; role of Academia
• Increased collaboration between development partners, donors and
research institutions
Key areas for consideration to address Climate change

30. Thank you