Local communities in Papua, Indonesia were interviewed about their perceptions of climate variability and forest changes. While meteorological data showed relatively minor inter-annual climate variability, communities reported events like extreme heat, strong winds and flash floods in the last 10 years. They adapted to climate events by temporarily relocating or changing crops but did not perceive long-term climate change. Communities saw forests as important for food, shelter and ecosystem services but noted declines due to logging, agriculture and construction rather than climate events. Both local and scientific knowledge provided insights but also had gaps, suggesting future research could better integrate both perspectives.

1. Local
Community
Percep2ons
of
Change
and
Climate
Variability
in
Tropical
Forests
of
Papua
(Indonesia)
ICE
2012,
Montpellier,
21-­‐25
May
2012
Manuel
Boissière,
Bruno
Locatelli,
Douglas
Sheil,
Michael
Padmanaba
,
ErmayanD

2. Site
descrip2on
YOKE
Mamberamo
Papua
Indonesia

3. Site
descrip2on
Some
numbers:
-­‐
Mamberamo
Raya
YOKE
Regency:
2,8
million
hectare
-­‐
90%
natural
forest
(swamp,
montane,
Mamberamo
mangrove,
lowland)
-­‐
Mamberamo-­‐Foja
Wildlife
Reserve:
+-­‐
2
Papua
million
hectares
Indonesia
-­‐
PopulaDon:
about
19,000
inhabitants,
culDvators,
hunter
gatherers,
sago
collectors
-­‐
Threats:
logging
(>600,000
ha),
coal
mining
project,
dam
project

4. Introduc2on
• Why
quesDons
on
percepDon
of
CC
maQer?
• What
differences
between
scien2fic
and
local
knowledge
about
seasonality,
climate
variability
and
climate?
• Seasonality
=
normal
variaDon
in
weather
during
an
average
year
• Climate
variability
=
deviaDon
from
average
• Climate
change
=
long-­‐term
trend
in
climate,
from
decades
to
millions
of
years.

5. Methods
• FGD
part
of
a
broader
research
• 4
groups
of
women,
men
of
different
age
per
village
• Household
surveys
• ClimaDc
data:
no
local
meteorological
staDon,
database
WorldClimCL25
(mean
climate
based
on
interpolaDon
of
weather
staDon
data)

6. Seasonality
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Papasena Perception
Climate data
Kwerba Perception
Climate data
Blue
=
wet
Burmeso Perception
Orange
=
dry
Climate data
White
=
unclear
Metaweja Perception
Climate data
Yoke Perception
Climate data
!

7. Climate
variability
• Recorded
inter-­‐annual
variability
is
relaDvely
minor.
• Precipita2on/temperature:
lower
coefficient
of
inter-­‐annual
variaDon
than
70%/95%
of
other
places
in
the
world
with
similar
climate.
• Local
people:
three
major
events
related
to
climate
variability
in
the
last
10
years:
extreme
heat,
strong
winds,
and
flash
floods.

8. Future
changes
Climate
Models
Temperatures:
Increasing
Annual
precipitaDons:
?
Local
Percep2on:
No
perceived
change

9. How
do
people
adapt
to
clima2c
events?
Village Event Coping strategy
Burmeso Dry season Use spades to break hard soil, same techniques for cultivation
Stay in the forest, in small settlements, seeking shade under trees
Flood Temporarily relocate to higher ground
Plant only short-term crops: reduce the risk of losing produce
Kwerba Long rain Temporarily relocate to higher ground.
Gardens are moved, old flooded gardens still used afterwards.
Roof tiles replaced with grass or Pandanus leaves
Long Rain call rituals
drought
Easier to catch fish (clearer water) Moving
Metaweja Floods
Temporarily relocate far from the main rivers
Gardens moved to higher ground
PlanDng
Annual crops harvested before next rainy season
Streams change directions and locations of natural fishponds
change
Taboos to prevent floods: no gardens planted in sacred mountain Rituals
and
taboo
Taboo against planting near the river: avoid crops swept away
Other
strategies
Gnemo decreasing and replaced by fern leaves as wild vegetable
Drought
Papasena Floods Gardens and hunting areas moved to higher ground
1&2
Houses built on higher stilts
Droughts Plant cassava, fast growing crops
Hunt in areas not affected, near gardens
Yoke Dry season Go further looking for drinking water (not salty)
Gardens are not moved
Damaged houses repaired together with whole community
!

10. Beyond
climate:
percep2on
of
other
changes
160
140
1.
Why
are
forests
2.
How
are
forest
areas
120
important?
changing?
100
Responses
80
152
60
40
88
73
20
42
34
16
0
Food
Ecosystem
ConstrucDon
Agriculture
Shelter
For
future
services
generaDon
80
70
60
3.
What
causes
forest
Number
of
answers
50
cover
change?
40
72
30
59
49
20
40
10
18
12
10
10
8
0
Clima2c
events
NOT
perceived
cause
of
forest
cover
change

11. Discussion
&
conclusion
• Meteorological
data:
general
informaDon
on
climate
variability.
• Local
people:
more
detailed
and
locally
relevant
informaDon
on
changes.
• They
react
to
changes
that
does
not
include
“climate
change”
=>
respond
to
climate
variability
and
to
non
clima2c
events
(economic,
poliDcal)
• Local
knowledge
=
complementary
source
of
informa2on
for
analysing
extreme
events
(floods
and
droughts),
and
consequences.
• Future
research
and
adapta2on
programs
should
use
the
similariDes
between
local
and
technical
knowledge
(engagement
in
common
acDviDes)
and
the
gaps
as
direcDon
for
further
clarificaDon.

12. Manuel
Boissière
(m.boissiere@cgiar.org)