Presentation by Erik D. Kjær, University of Copenhagen Boreal and temperate forest, Forest Day 3 Sunday, 13 December 2009 Copenhagen, Denmark

1. Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability,
and how we can support the forests potential for coping
with such
=> How to prepare for the future?
Picea abies CSO, Silkeborg
Erik D. Kjær
Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning,
Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen

2. Native species still fit?
Some European examples

3. Picea abies
http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html

4. Quercus robur and Q. petraea
http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html

5. Betula pendula and Betula pubescens
http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html

6. Pinus sylvestris
Danish origin Abisco origin

7. Health
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
Landrace 2.9
Landrace
Landrace
Landrace
Landrace
Landrace
Health
Baltic
Scotland
Danish field trial, NW Jutland.
Source: Kjær og Barner 1998
Scotland
Letland
Oscarhamn,
S
Sæverås, N

8. Hypothesis:
Forest tree species accommodate large
climatic variation by local adaptation
rather than simple phenotypic plasticity

9. Climatic extremes – not only average
temperature and rain
Photo: Jørgensen, 1999
Species trial after the storm in 3-12. 1999

10. New pests and diseases
Competition with new species
An example

11. Ash dieback
Photos: Iben Thomsen

12. Genetic variation is present!
100
100% = All dead!
90
80
----
70
Crown damage (%)
60
---
50
40 --
30
-
20
10
+
++
0
2007
1 2008
2 2009
3
Development 2007-2009, 40 clones, 25 replications, established 1998

13. Genetic variation is present!

14. We need to support adaptation!
What and how?
Darwin, Wallace and the Red Queen...

15. Darwin-Wallace: ’survival of the
fittest based on natural selection’
’Species evolve to fit specific habitats though natural
selection according to their fitness’
’Selection and isolation’

16. The Red Queen Theory
Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain
their evoluationary relevance....

17. The Red Queen Theory

18. The Red Queen Theory

19. The Red Queen Theory
’It takes all the running you can do just to stay in the
same place’
Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain
their evolutionary relevance....

20. What we have learned so-far on the
trees ability to ’run fast’
• Genetic patterns of differentiation are pronounced
• Potential for adaption seem large if management
are based on sound genetic principles
• Many aspects are difficult to predict – especially
new pests and pathogens

21. Support continued adaptation-
How?
• Effective natural selection –
Level of genetic diversity, Generation intervals, population
sizes, Ratio: regeneration/Mature trees
• Gene flow and migration–
Seed and pollen at the landscape level, movement and testing
of germplasm (genetic pockets)
Researchers: we need to understand adaptation and the role
of genetic diversity
Managers: we need to protect, support en encourage genetic
processes
Policy makers: we need to apply a dynamic view of species
and genetic origins

22. Acknowledgements