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How to predict the future (Signal and the Noise) - it-cafe.ir

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آیا می‌توان با ضریب اطمینان 99% وقایع و رخدادهای سیاسی، اقتصادی و ورزشی را پیش‌بینی کرد؟ از لحاظ ریاضی به شرط داشتن اطلاعات کافی از یک رخداد و ترسیم مسیر حرکتی آن، میتوان نقاط بعدی آن را پیش‌بینی نمود. اگر چنین است چرا ما بشر از پیش‌بینی رخدادهای معمولی هم توفیقی کسب نکرده است؟ و چرا عده‌ای هرچند معدود موفق می‌شوند پیش‌بینی‌های موثری نسبت به رخدادهای آینده داشته باشند؟
The Signal and the Noise : Why Most Predictions Fail – but Some Don't...
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Videos:
Part 1: http://www.aparat.com/v/mUV38
Part 2: http://www.aparat.com/v/Aj3Oc
Part 3: http://www.aparat.com/v/RfL5m

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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How to predict the future (Signal and the Noise) - it-cafe.ir

  1. 1. ‫زمانی‬ ‫مسعود‬ 5 August 2015 www.it-cafe.ir @masoud_zamani @_innovcenter @_itcafe_
  2. 2. The Best Way to Predict the FUTURE, is to CREATE it. (Alan Key)
  3. 3. ‫اطالعات‬ ‫انفجار‬ Information Boom!
  4. 4. 90% of All the human’s Data generated in last 2 Years.. 2.5 quintillion bytes of data per day…
  5. 5. Greatest revolution in Information 1414 A.D
  6. 6. Just one Copy of a Book 20,000 $ 63‫تومان‬ ‫میلیون‬ 190 $ 600‫تومان‬ ‫هزار‬
  7. 7. Years and years of wars…
  8. 8. ‫را‬ ‫علم‬ ،‫زیاد‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫از‬ ‫و‬ ‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫مطلق‬ ‫تقری‬ ‫و‬ ‫بودن‬ ‫نسبی‬‫بی‬ ‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫خارج‬ ‫بودن‬. «‫اعداد‬ ،‫کافی‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫با‬ ‫تنهایی‬ ‫به‬ ‫خودشان‬ ‫مطال‬ ‫و‬ ‫کنند‬‫می‬ ‫صحبت‬‫ب‬ ‫کنند‬‫می‬ ‫بیان‬ ‫را‬.»
  9. 9. Nate Silver
  10. 10. 2008 •49 of 50 States 2012 •50 of 50 States
  11. 11. 1. Average the Polls 2. Count to 270 3. Account for Margin of Error The 538 Method (Simplified)
  12. 12. $181.50 $192.25
  13. 13. ‫را‬ ‫چیزی‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ها‬‫رسانه‬ ‫دوست‬ ‫که‬ ‫میگویند‬ ‫حقیقت‬ ‫نه‬ ‫و‬ ،‫دارند‬ ‫را‬ ‫چیزی‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ها‬‫کتاب‬ ‫دوست‬ ‫که‬ ‫گویند‬‫می‬ ‫حقیقت‬ ‫نه‬ ‫و‬ ‫دارند‬ ‫چیزی‬ ‫آن‬ ‫هم‬ ‫مردم‬ ‫که‬ ‫شنوند‬‫می‬ ‫را‬ ‫خواهند‬‫می‬.
  14. 14. ‫ظریف‬ ‫جواد‬ Javad Zarif
  15. 15. ‫شاکردوست‬ ‫الناز‬ Elnaz Shakerdoost ‫ظریف‬ ‫جواد‬ Javad Zarif Don’t trust the trends…
  16. 16. Not Always trust the Crowd Wisdom
  17. 17. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio 𝟓𝒙𝟒 𝟐 = 𝟏𝟎
  18. 18. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio 𝟏𝟎𝒙𝟗 𝟐 = 𝟒𝟓
  19. 19. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio 𝟏𝟒𝟖, 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝒙𝟏𝟒𝟕, 𝟗𝟗𝟗 𝟐 = 𝟏𝟎, 𝟗𝟓𝟏, 𝟗𝟐𝟔, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
  20. 20. A Random Walk Down Wall Street
  21. 21. ‫از‬ ‫داریم‬ ‫زیادی‬ ‫تمایل‬ ‫ما‬ ‫تصادفی‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫کن‬ ‫دریافت‬ ‫هایی‬‫سیگنال‬‫یم‬ ‫داریم‬ ‫دوست‬ ‫که‬
  22. 22. ‫راهکارها‬... Solutions…
  23. 23. 1. Think Probabilistically 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err
  24. 24. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically Levee: 51’ Flood Prediction: 49’ Levee: 51’ Flood Prediction: 49’ Margin of Error: ±9’
  25. 25. Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From ‫عراق‬:48‫هواپیما‬ •6‫آنتونوف‬ ‫هواپیما‬ ‫فروند‬-۱۲ •۲‫توپولف‬ ‫افکن‬‫بمب‬ ‫فروند‬-۱6 •۵‫سوخو‬ ‫فروند‬-۱۷ •۷‫میگ‬ ‫فروند‬-۲۱ •۱0‫میگ‬ ‫فروند‬-۲3 •3‫اف‬ ‫میراژ‬ ‫داسو‬ ‫فروند‬۱ •۷‫هلیکوپتر‬ ‫فروند‬ •۱۱‫جدی‬ ‫آسیب‬ ‫اسکادران‬ ‫ایران‬:0 H-3 Airstrike
  26. 26. Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From
  27. 27. Philip Tetlock University of Pennsylvania ‫ای‬‫رشته‬ ‫چند‬ ‫بودن‬ ‫به‬ ‫تمایل‬ ‫مطالعه‬ ‫به‬ ‫تمایل‬ ‫گیری‬ ‫ارتباط‬
  28. 28. ‫خودی‬ ‫به‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫بیان‬ ‫برای‬ ‫راهی‬ ‫اعداد‬ ‫ندارند‬ ‫خود‬.‫صحبت‬ ‫آنها‬ ‫برای‬ ‫ما‬ ‫کنیم‬‫می‬. ‫فرآیندی‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫خود‬ ‫نقش‬ ‫ما‬ ‫که‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫یاب‬‫می‬ ‫افزایش‬ ‫شکست‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫که‬،‫د‬ ‫مب‬ ‫های‬‫بینی‬‫پیش‬ ، ‫بگیریم‬ ‫نادیده‬‫تنی‬ ‫و‬ ‫باشد‬ ‫موفق‬ ‫تواند‬‫می‬ ‫داده‬ ‫بر‬ ‫بخورد‬ ‫شکست‬ ‫تواند‬‫می‬. ‫تق‬ ‫بیشتری‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫آنکه‬ ‫از‬ ‫پیش‬‫اضا‬ ‫تعداد‬ ‫که‬ ‫داریم‬ ‫این‬ ‫به‬ ‫نیاز‬ ،‫کنیم‬ ‫باشیم‬ ‫داشته‬ ‫خودمان‬ ‫از‬ ‫بیشتری‬. ‫فرآیندها‬ ‫در‬ ‫ما‬ ‫که‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ‫نقش‬ ‫یک‬ ‫اس‬ ‫هایی‬‫داده‬ ‫انتخاب‬ ‫کنیم‬‫می‬ ‫بازی‬‫ت‬ ‫دهیم‬‫م‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫مد‬ ‫که‬
  29. 29. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effort Accuracy 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effort
  30. 30. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effort Accuracy 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effort Water level
  31. 31. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effort Accuracy Competitive Advantage
  32. 32. 3. Try, and Err (Refine Your Process) 2. Know Where You’re Coming From (Consider Your Assumptions) 1. Think Probabilistically (Know Your Limitations)
  33. 33. The road to Wisdom Well it’s Plain And simple to express Err & Err & Err Again But less & Less & Less Piet Hein, Danish Scientist
  34. 34. 43 ‫تشکر‬ ‫با‬ @masoud_zamani

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