Transboundary Water Management Workshop held in Johannesburg, South Africa from April 29-30, 2014.

1. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
John Metzger, Senior Adviser
Zambezi Watercourse Commission, Harare, Zimbabwe
29 April 2014

2. Presentation Outline
2
1. Basin Context
2. Challenges
3. Opportunities
4. Next steps

3. Context
the Zambezi and other River Basins:
3
Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi
Basin Area
(km2)
429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,370,000
Avg annual
flow (km3)
10 495 84
@ Aswan
130
River
length (km)
1,100 4,800 6,853 2,650
Population
(million)
1.3 > 60 > 160 > 32
Riparian
countries
3 6 11 8

4. Key features - the Zambezi River Basin
4
8 countries:
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
13 sub-basins:

5. The Zambezi River Basin
Basin areas by country
5

6. the Zambezi River Basin
Population and distribution
6
Within the
basin:
> 32 million
today:
85% in
Malawi,
Zambia and
Zimbabwe
Increasing to
51 million by
2025
7.6 million in
21 urban
centres

7. The Zambezi River Basin
7

8. The Zambezi River Basin
Economic development
8
> 6% annual economic growth
Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP
GDP/capita: $122 (Zimbabwe) to $7,000 (Botswana)
Persistent poverty, but dual economies:
Some new investments possible in large infrastructure, and
Many relying on subsistence livelihoods based on
environmental services
Some important World Heritage and Ramsar sites
Significant reliance on nature-based tourism
Climatic variability est. GDP loss ~1%

9. Challenges9

10. Challenges
Socio-economic
10
Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the
past 30 years
Limited coordinated development:
Economic inefficiencies
Loss of productivity
Impaired ability of natural systems to sustain
environmental services
Increased risks to extreme climate events

11. Challenges
Climate Change Impacts
11
Preliminary assessments:
Likely reduced runoff yield
Reduced flows of 26-40%
Increased irrigation deficits
Avg. temperature increases of 1.5C
Reduction in firm energy production of 32%
But, high levels of uncertainty

12. Challenges
12
Benefits of cooperation have been recognised
but realising them has been elusive
No significant investments in water management
and development in the basin in the past 30 years!

13. Opportunities13

14. Opportunities
The time is right for action now!14
Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region
Political will is there:
Legal and institutional arrangements are now in place
Mutual-benefits of cooperation increasingly understood
Strong technical and analytical frameworks:
as a basis for developing and agreement investments in
hydropower, agriculture, environment and transport, etc.
> $16bn in infrastructure investments identified
Increased cooperation can bring added benefits
from existing infrastructure

15. Enabling legal frameworks for cooperation
based on benefit-sharing:
15
Initiatives on-going from the1940s
Zambezi River Authority – Zambia/Zimbabwe
Kariba Dam - commissioned in 1960
Other regional agreements in the past >30 years:
1995 SADC Protocol – revised/ratified 2003
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) - 1995
Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
Negotiations started in 1980s
Signed in 2004
Into force in 2011- interim Secretariat in Botswana
Permanent Commission in 2014 – Secretariat in Zimbabwe

16. ZAMCOM Agreement
16
Objective:
“To promote the equitable and reasonable
utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi
Watercourse as well as the efficient management
and sustainable development thereof”

17. ZAMCOM Governance
17

18. Long history of cooperative efforts,
supported by solid analytical foundations
providing a strong data, information and
knowledge base
Report on the
Zambezi River Commission
1995
18
Much Analytical
Work Already Done!

19. Analytical Framework
for equitable and reasonable utilisation
19

20. Transboundary Cooperation
Types of benefits
20
(Sadoff and Grey, 2005)
Type Opportunity
1. To
the river
Improved quality, flow regime, biodiversity, sustainability
2. From
the river
Increased benefits from hydropower, agriculture,
flood/drought management, navigation, environmental
conservation, recreation, etc.
3. Because of
the river
Improved regional relations based on cooperation and
development for water, food and energy security…
e.g. reduced conflicts
4. Beyond
the river
Regional economic integration of markets and trade

21. “Balanced” approach
Zambezi River basin development
21
SAPP: Southern Africa Power
Pool investment plan

22. Development Opportunities
Balanced scenario
22
A balanced approach combining hydropower,
irrigation and other investments
requires trade-offs between regions/sectors agreed
overall benefits maximised
Investments totalling about $16.1bn over 15yrs
NPV = $110m
Return on investment = 10%

23. 23
Existing and Potential HEPs

24. 24
Existing and Potential HEPs
Zambezi mainstream

25. Current and Potential Hydropower
25
Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in
firm energy adding $585m over 30 yrs
At no added cost!
Current Potential
Installed HEP
generation capacity
5,000 MW
half of SAPP HEP
13,000 MW
With potential
investments of
$10.6 bn
Increase in average
energy production
30,000 GWh/yr 90,000GWh/yr
Increase in firm
energy production
23,000 GWh/yr 58,000 GWh/yr

26. Current and Potential Irrigation
26
Current
Identified
100 ha
1,000 ha
10,000 ha
100,000 ha

27. Current and Potential Irrigation
27
Current Potential
With potential
investments:
$2.5 bn
Increase average
area irrigated from
260,000 ha/yr 775,000 ha/yr
New job creation: >500,000 jobs in the agriculture sector

28. Other opportunities/benefits
28
Disaster Risk Reduction:
Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience with est $1 bn
reduced losses to floods, droughts and climate change
Navigation:
reduced costs and improved opportunities for development through river
navigation, and bridges
Environmental management:
flow management in the delta, improved fisheries and basin-wide e-flows, etc.
Fisheries production
lake and deltas
Water supply for people and industry
>1,000m3/yr for Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Mining
potential negative impacts to water quality to be mitigated, and
reduced-cost transportation/navigation options to be explored
Tourism

29. 29 Next steps:

30. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
30
Clearly demonstrate the added-value of
collaboration in river basin management and
development
Investors are ready and willing
The people are waiting
ZAMCOM to deliver tangible results in 3 key
areas:

31. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
31
1. Effective ZAMCOM governance:
Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks,
political will and financial support – including from
member countries
everything is in place now
need to make it work

32. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
32
2. Shared data, information and knowledge
platforms
Shared data and information system - ZAMWIS
Agreed basin-wide decision-support systems for
basin development planning,
real-time monitoring for flow synchronisation, and
flood forecasting and early warning systems

33. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
33
3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan”
A “rolling” strategic planning process
Base the plan on broad basin-wide stakeholder consultations
A plan which identifies, categorises and prioritises
investment projects and programmes for managing and
developing the water/related resources of the Basin
Investments the 3-“I”s:
1. Information and knowledge,
2. Institutions - arrangements and capacity-building, and
3. Infrastructure
Engage the decision-makers
Leverage additional benefits and additional investments

34. Selected References
34
• SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi
River Basin Project.
• Sadoff, C.W. and Grey, D. 2005. Cooperation on international rivers: A
continuum for securing and sharing benefits. IWRA, International Water,
Vol. 30, No. 4. 8 pp.
• World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: a Multi-Sector Investment
Opportunities Analysis. http://water.worldbank.org/node/83707
• SADC-WD/ZRA. 2008. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy
and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin.
http://www.zambezicommission.org/downloads/Zambezi%20River%20Basi
n%20IWRM%20Strategy%20ZAMSTRAT.pdf

35. Thank you!35